Reposted by Guy McCombe
Your fave women’s footie analytics gals (@cata-bush.bsky.social and myself, ofc) are at it again!
Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀):
open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...
Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀):
open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...
5 takeaways from the Women's Euro group stages
The Women’s Euros kicked off at the start of July and Catalina Bush and I launched an online app using the Value Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) framework. The app is being updated after ev...
open.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Your fave women’s footie analytics gals (@cata-bush.bsky.social and myself, ofc) are at it again!
Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀):
open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...
Below is a VAEP inspired breakdown of the Women’s Euros group stages - read to see which players and teams have shown out or bombed (whoops, Netherlands 👀):
open.substack.com/pub/beyondth...
Reposted by Guy McCombe
📊 GW31-33: Top Assistant Manager Projections:
GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5)
GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.)
GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points)
Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings
GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5)
GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.)
GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points)
Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings
April 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
📊 GW31-33: Top Assistant Manager Projections:
GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5)
GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.)
GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points)
Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings
GW31: Brentford & West Ham lead (mean ~9.5)
GW32: Palace and Newcastle top the chart (~13 & 12.5 resp.)
GW33: Arsenal are clear (~15.5 points)
Data: 100k sims based on @elevenify.com team ratings
Reposted by Guy McCombe
Glasner vs Arteta:
As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!
As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!
February 20, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Glasner vs Arteta:
As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!
As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!
📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere?
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
February 20, 2025 at 6:10 PM
📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere?
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.
Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com
📊 GW26 Projections: Pick your Poisson
Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com
Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02)
The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds
Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com
Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02)
The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds
February 20, 2025 at 3:31 PM
📊 GW26 Projections: Pick your Poisson
Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com
Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02)
The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds
Left: Team ratings from @elevenify.com
Right: SpreadEx odds via @robtfpl.com (accessed 19/02)
The key disagreement seems to be that Elevenify's model has lower expectations for Liverpool and Ipswich compared to current market odds
📊 AM25 Live:
Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4.
However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool.
Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive.
Data: @elevenify.com
Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4.
However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool.
Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive.
Data: @elevenify.com
February 18, 2025 at 8:29 PM
📊 AM25 Live:
Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4.
However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool.
Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive.
Data: @elevenify.com
Following Villa's surprise draw vs IPS, Emery trails Slot by 4.
However, that would change if they pull off an upset of their own against Liverpool.
Fittingly a draw (22%) results in almost no difference in points, whereas a decisive result is, well, decisive.
Data: @elevenify.com
📊 GW26: Arteta vs Glasner
Similar means, vastly different distributions:
Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer.
Odds data via @robtfpl.com
Similar means, vastly different distributions:
Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer.
Odds data via @robtfpl.com
February 18, 2025 at 11:34 AM
📊 GW26: Arteta vs Glasner
Similar means, vastly different distributions:
Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer.
Odds data via @robtfpl.com
Similar means, vastly different distributions:
Arteta is much more consistent: ~70% to score 8-12pts. Glasner has a much higher ceiling thanks to the table bonus potential - if you can stomach the 45% chance to score 2pts or fewer.
Odds data via @robtfpl.com
Head-to-head: Slot vs Emery in GW25 📊
Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims.
The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points.
Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com
Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims.
The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points.
Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com
February 13, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Head-to-head: Slot vs Emery in GW25 📊
Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims.
The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points.
Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com
Slot favoured (~61%) to score more points than Emery, but there's still plenty of upside for Emery. He beats Slot by at least 15 points in more than 17% of sims.
The expectation however, is that Slot wins by ~1.7 points.
Based on 1M sims via @elevenify.com
Reposted by Guy McCombe
Fantasy Frameworks 💡
A new resource for members.
23+ Frameworks.
6,000+ Words.
This will make you a better #FPL manager.
www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...
A new resource for members.
23+ Frameworks.
6,000+ Words.
This will make you a better #FPL manager.
www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...
Fantasy Frameworks
Tools for making better decisions.
www.elevenify.com
February 9, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Fantasy Frameworks 💡
A new resource for members.
23+ Frameworks.
6,000+ Words.
This will make you a better #FPL manager.
www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...
A new resource for members.
23+ Frameworks.
6,000+ Words.
This will make you a better #FPL manager.
www.elevenify.com/p/fantasy-fr...
Reposted by Guy McCombe
A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
February 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM
A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
February 7, 2025 at 3:22 PM
GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?
Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data
Looking a little further: Emery vs Slot over next two GWs 📈
250k sims project tight race: Slot (mean: 22.9) vs Emery (mean: 21.9) over GWs 25 & 26.
Similar means but different paths, with the Villa manager showing a wider spread of potential outcomes.
250k sims project tight race: Slot (mean: 22.9) vs Emery (mean: 21.9) over GWs 25 & 26.
Similar means but different paths, with the Villa manager showing a wider spread of potential outcomes.
February 6, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Looking a little further: Emery vs Slot over next two GWs 📈
250k sims project tight race: Slot (mean: 22.9) vs Emery (mean: 21.9) over GWs 25 & 26.
Similar means but different paths, with the Villa manager showing a wider spread of potential outcomes.
250k sims project tight race: Slot (mean: 22.9) vs Emery (mean: 21.9) over GWs 25 & 26.
Similar means but different paths, with the Villa manager showing a wider spread of potential outcomes.
DGW25 Locked: Emery vs Slot Head-to-Head 📊
2M simulations show Slot (mean: 17.4) edging Emery (15.8).
Full probability heatmap included - I will update with a higher resolution view once outcomes constrict after each team's first match of the gameweek.
2M simulations show Slot (mean: 17.4) edging Emery (15.8).
Full probability heatmap included - I will update with a higher resolution view once outcomes constrict after each team's first match of the gameweek.
February 6, 2025 at 9:57 PM
DGW25 Locked: Emery vs Slot Head-to-Head 📊
2M simulations show Slot (mean: 17.4) edging Emery (15.8).
Full probability heatmap included - I will update with a higher resolution view once outcomes constrict after each team's first match of the gameweek.
2M simulations show Slot (mean: 17.4) edging Emery (15.8).
Full probability heatmap included - I will update with a higher resolution view once outcomes constrict after each team's first match of the gameweek.
⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
February 4, 2025 at 12:44 PM
⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.
Data: @elevenify.com
Reposted by Guy McCombe
Update after each team's first game:
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
February 1, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Update after each team's first game:
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24
📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.
Team ratings: @elevenify.com
📊 Slot vs Moyes - DGW24 Points Distribution
250k simulations reveal Moyes's higher ceiling but more volatility, while Slot shows a tighter points range.
Risk vs reward in visual form.
Data: @elevenify.com & me
250k simulations reveal Moyes's higher ceiling but more volatility, while Slot shows a tighter points range.
Risk vs reward in visual form.
Data: @elevenify.com & me
February 1, 2025 at 10:09 AM
📊 Slot vs Moyes - DGW24 Points Distribution
250k simulations reveal Moyes's higher ceiling but more volatility, while Slot shows a tighter points range.
Risk vs reward in visual form.
Data: @elevenify.com & me
250k simulations reveal Moyes's higher ceiling but more volatility, while Slot shows a tighter points range.
Risk vs reward in visual form.
Data: @elevenify.com & me
AM24 vs AM25 Optimal Routes Analysis 📊
Comparing chip strategies based on DGW25 scenarios. Liverpool progress vs Spurs progress paths shown.
Let me know if you have another route you would like to see analysed 👇
Data: Team ratings @elevenify.com; progression odds @robtfpl.com; simulations by me
Comparing chip strategies based on DGW25 scenarios. Liverpool progress vs Spurs progress paths shown.
Let me know if you have another route you would like to see analysed 👇
Data: Team ratings @elevenify.com; progression odds @robtfpl.com; simulations by me
January 31, 2025 at 7:24 PM
AM24 vs AM25 Optimal Routes Analysis 📊
Comparing chip strategies based on DGW25 scenarios. Liverpool progress vs Spurs progress paths shown.
Let me know if you have another route you would like to see analysed 👇
Data: Team ratings @elevenify.com; progression odds @robtfpl.com; simulations by me
Comparing chip strategies based on DGW25 scenarios. Liverpool progress vs Spurs progress paths shown.
Let me know if you have another route you would like to see analysed 👇
Data: Team ratings @elevenify.com; progression odds @robtfpl.com; simulations by me
Reposted by Guy McCombe
GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
January 31, 2025 at 5:03 PM
GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.
Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.
DGW25 Assistant Manager Points Projection 📊
Expected points for managers over next 3 GWs, assuming potential doubles for each team DGW25. Points include weighted probability of table bonus based on the likelihood that they are eligible at that time.
Based on team ratings from @elevenify.com
Expected points for managers over next 3 GWs, assuming potential doubles for each team DGW25. Points include weighted probability of table bonus based on the likelihood that they are eligible at that time.
Based on team ratings from @elevenify.com
January 31, 2025 at 1:38 PM
DGW25 Assistant Manager Points Projection 📊
Expected points for managers over next 3 GWs, assuming potential doubles for each team DGW25. Points include weighted probability of table bonus based on the likelihood that they are eligible at that time.
Based on team ratings from @elevenify.com
Expected points for managers over next 3 GWs, assuming potential doubles for each team DGW25. Points include weighted probability of table bonus based on the likelihood that they are eligible at that time.
Based on team ratings from @elevenify.com