@humblestudent.bsky.social
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP
February 14, 2026 at 1:05 PM
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet
February 14, 2026 at 1:04 PM
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Tail Risk for Banks Posed by Investments in Generative Artificial Intelligence - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly increase our productivity and alter how we work and live in many ways. Because of this potential—and the related financial…
www.chicagofed.org
February 14, 2026 at 1:03 PM
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX
February 14, 2026 at 1:02 PM
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year
February 14, 2026 at 1:02 PM
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year
I know that everyone is excited about broadening breadth. But the EW $SPX and $ACWI ex-US are now at the top of their rising channels. Too much too fast?
$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX
$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
I know that everyone is excited about broadening breadth. But the EW $SPX and $ACWI ex-US are now at the top of their rising channels. Too much too fast?
$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX
$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Earnings season results has been strong, and the recent price weakness has pulled $SPX fwd P/E to 21.5, the bottom of a recent range. If this is a normal drawdown in a bull trend, this a good place for the decline to stop.
Earnings season results has been strong, and the recent price weakness has pulled $SPX fwd P/E to 21.5, the bottom of a recent range. If this is a normal drawdown in a bull trend, this a good place for the decline to stop.
February 7, 2026 at 1:03 PM
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Earnings season results has been strong, and the recent price weakness has pulled $SPX fwd P/E to 21.5, the bottom of a recent range. If this is a normal drawdown in a bull trend, this a good place for the decline to stop.
Earnings season results has been strong, and the recent price weakness has pulled $SPX fwd P/E to 21.5, the bottom of a recent range. If this is a normal drawdown in a bull trend, this a good place for the decline to stop.
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Bad New? A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals
Bad New? A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals
February 7, 2026 at 1:02 PM
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Bad New? A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals
Bad New? A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Don't forget about the Dow Theory buy signal
Don't forget about the Dow Theory buy signal
February 7, 2026 at 1:02 PM
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Don't forget about the Dow Theory buy signal
Don't forget about the Dow Theory buy signal
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX breadth is still broadening
$SPX breadth is still broadening
January 31, 2026 at 1:05 PM
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX breadth is still broadening
$SPX breadth is still broadening
January 31, 2026 at 1:04 PM
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Estimates are still rising strongly
Estimates are still rising strongly
January 31, 2026 at 1:03 PM
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Estimates are still rising strongly
Estimates are still rising strongly
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SLV island reversal
$SLV island reversal
January 31, 2026 at 1:02 PM
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SLV island reversal
$SLV island reversal
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Liquidity shrank in the past week. More importantly, Kevin Warsh is known for favoring shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. If that's the case, what happens to banking system liquidity?
Liquidity shrank in the past week. More importantly, Kevin Warsh is known for favoring shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. If that's the case, what happens to banking system liquidity?
January 31, 2026 at 1:01 PM
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Liquidity shrank in the past week. More importantly, Kevin Warsh is known for favoring shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. If that's the case, what happens to banking system liquidity?
Liquidity shrank in the past week. More importantly, Kevin Warsh is known for favoring shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. If that's the case, what happens to banking system liquidity?
Is this a good time in the middle of a large storm for Ontario Hydro & Hydro Quebec to turn off the power to the US NE to demonstrate how interconnected the 2 economies are?
Asking for a friend 😱
Asking for a friend 😱
January 25, 2026 at 1:23 AM
Is this a good time in the middle of a large storm for Ontario Hydro & Hydro Quebec to turn off the power to the US NE to demonstrate how interconnected the 2 economies are?
Asking for a friend 😱
Asking for a friend 😱
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Defensive sector relative performance: Bottoming but not showing definitive signs of leadership
Defensive sector relative performance: Bottoming but not showing definitive signs of leadership
January 24, 2026 at 1:05 PM
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Defensive sector relative performance: Bottoming but not showing definitive signs of leadership
Defensive sector relative performance: Bottoming but not showing definitive signs of leadership
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The "Sell America" trade has gained a bid, but is it sustainable?
The "Sell America" trade has gained a bid, but is it sustainable?
January 24, 2026 at 1:04 PM
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The "Sell America" trade has gained a bid, but is it sustainable?
The "Sell America" trade has gained a bid, but is it sustainable?
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
In praise of cyclicals
In praise of cyclicals
January 24, 2026 at 1:03 PM
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
In praise of cyclicals
In praise of cyclicals
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The Mag7 bounced off a 14-day RSI oversold reading
The Mag7 bounced off a 14-day RSI oversold reading
January 24, 2026 at 1:02 PM
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The Mag7 bounced off a 14-day RSI oversold reading
The Mag7 bounced off a 14-day RSI oversold reading
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
As the $SPX languishes in a narrow trading range, the market breadth of other market indices are much stronger.
As the $SPX languishes in a narrow trading range, the market breadth of other market indices are much stronger.
January 24, 2026 at 1:01 PM
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
As the $SPX languishes in a narrow trading range, the market breadth of other market indices are much stronger.
As the $SPX languishes in a narrow trading range, the market breadth of other market indices are much stronger.
Time for "thoughts for the weekend"
An ungated oldie but goodie: HIgh Conviction Idea: My Most Reliable Timing Models
humblestudentofthemarkets.com/2025/12/13/h...
An ungated oldie but goodie: HIgh Conviction Idea: My Most Reliable Timing Models
humblestudentofthemarkets.com/2025/12/13/h...
High Conviction Idea: My Most Reliable Timing Models – Humble Student of the Markets
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humblestudentofthemarkets.com
January 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Time for "thoughts for the weekend"
An ungated oldie but goodie: HIgh Conviction Idea: My Most Reliable Timing Models
humblestudentofthemarkets.com/2025/12/13/h...
An ungated oldie but goodie: HIgh Conviction Idea: My Most Reliable Timing Models
humblestudentofthemarkets.com/2025/12/13/h...
Mark Carney's China pivot is starting look like he's ahead of his time
January 17, 2026 at 10:09 PM
Mark Carney's China pivot is starting look like he's ahead of his time
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
OTOH, don't count tech out just yet. Semiconductor stocks are holding up well = AI theme isn't dead
$SOX
OTOH, don't count tech out just yet. Semiconductor stocks are holding up well = AI theme isn't dead
$SOX
January 17, 2026 at 1:05 PM
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
OTOH, don't count tech out just yet. Semiconductor stocks are holding up well = AI theme isn't dead
$SOX
OTOH, don't count tech out just yet. Semiconductor stocks are holding up well = AI theme isn't dead
$SOX