Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · 26d

After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end.

EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts.

More in our FX Talking report out today: think.ing.com/reports/fx-t...

FX Talking: Fed-powered rally has legs

We still prefer a benign decline in the dollar and a supported environment for risk assets and activity currencies

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Sep 11

This month's Economic Update covers trade developments, France's political drama, the Lisa Cook affair, & our forecasts for the global economy.

Trade uncertainty is back, the Ukraine war drags on, and Europe is once again grappling with a political crisis.

More 👉 think.ing.com/bundles/sept...

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Sep 4

We think the discussion at next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be more controversial than markets are currently pricing in.

Here's our preview: think.ing.com/articles/ecb...

Why the ECB is unlikely to leave its ‘good place’ just yet

We expect the ECB to stay on hold at its September meeting, though a final rate cut later this year should not be ruled out just yet

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Sep 3

100 days since ECB President Christine Lagarde’s call for a 'global euro' moment, our team looks at whether progress has been made in boosting the euro’s global role, and whether investors are buying into the vision.

think.ing.com/reports/100-...

100 days in, is the euro gaining ground on the global stage?

We look for early signs of the euro’s progress since Christine Lagarde's landmark speech 100 days ago

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Sep 1

Unlike the markets, we still reckon there's a decent chance the Bank of England will cut rates again in November.

But a few data points, released over the next couple of months, will be key to whether the Bank keeps easing later this year.

think.ing.com/articles/ban...

The Bank of England’s dilemma: will the data justify a November rate cut?

The key data to watch between now and the Bank of England's November meeting

think.ing.com

1

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Aug 29

100 days since ECB President Lagarde’s call for a “global euro” moment, has Europe made progress – and are investors convinced? Join our webinar next Wednesday to find out.

📌 Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...

Webinar: The ‘global euro’ 100-day report card

The euro's potential as a global currency is gaining traction. Our webinar will cover the progress made since Christine Lagarde’s landmark speech

think.ing.com

1

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Aug 22

Not a fan of Oasis or puns? Look away now.

ING's James Smith looks back (in anger) at this week's economic highlights, & finds there's definitely maybe a problem in UK data quality, with retail sales pulled over dodgy numbers.

Here’s what’s coming next week: think.ing.com/articles/thi...

THINK Ahead: The data? She’s hardly econometric…

James Smith's supersonic look at the week ahead

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Aug 12

President Trump has said the Fed is too late to cut interest rates, but it's not too late to sign up for our webinar today in which we discuss this after the key US inflation release.

Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...

Webinar: Too late to cut? The Federal Reserve’s inflation dilemma

Join us on Tuesday 12 August to unpack the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 30

Germany's economy shrinks.

"A painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth", says ING's Carsten Brzeski.

think.ing.com/snaps/german...

German economy falls back into recessionary territory

German economy contracted in second quarter of 2025

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 22

Our all-important cheat sheet is out ahead of the ECB's rate-setting meeting on Thursday.

We expect a hold, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength.

Here's what our team thinks:
think.ing.com/articles/jul...

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 17

The stronger euro and latest tariff threats have added to the ECB's disinflationary concerns.

In our view, it is not enough to justify a rate cut next week, but rather very likely at the September meeting.

think.ing.com/articles/ecb...

ECB’s ‘good place’ threatened by tariffs and a stronger euro

We preview the ECB's July meeting and expect rates to remain unchanged

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 17

The bottom line is that the UK jobs market is undoubtedly cooling – and, it is cooler than in other major economies.

However things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.

think.ing.com/snaps/less-a...

Less alarming UK jobs data eases pressure on the Bank of England

UK payroll data was revised up significantly

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 14

In our recent FX Talking, we explain why we are expecting a temporary correction in EUR/USD over the coming months as tariff-driven US price pressures start to emerge.

Take a peek 👀 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-t...

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 10

June was one of the hottest months ever in Western Europe, and don't expect things on the economic front to cool down anytime soon. ING's Carsten Brzeski looks at what to expect for the rest of the summer

think.ing.com/articles/no-...

No holiday respite from this economic heat

The economic storms will continue to rage this summer

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 9

Trump’s 50% tariff is unlikely to boost US copper production. Why?

The US produces only 5% of the world's copper & has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade.

Plus: previous tariffs on steel and aluminium did not lead to increased domestic production.

think.ing.com/articles/tru...

Trump’s 50% tariff unlikely to boost US copper production

The US produces around 5% of global copper mining output

think.ing.com

1

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 8

Asia has been hit with fresh tariff rates. Of the 14 countries that received tariff letters, nine were in Asia.

The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India, and the Philippines, which might benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.

think.ing.com/articles/new...

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 2

🌎 On 9 July, reciprocal tariffs (of 11-50%) will resume unless formal trade deals like US/UK or US/China are finalised.

What lies ahead for trade deals, tariff rates, and the US/China dispute? Here's our take:

think.ing.com/articles/us-...

Everything you need to know as we near the end of the US 90-day tariff pause

Reciprocal tariffs (of 11-50%) will resume on July 9 unless formal trade deals, such as US-UK or US-China agreements, are finalised

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jul 1

Many of us have turned to ChatGPT to help with writing an email, summarising a report, or even brainstorming ideas. But in doing so, are we not just outsourcing our tasks, but our thinking too?

Does relying on AI ultimately make us less intelligent?

think.ing.com/articles/ai-...

AI Monthly: is AI making us less intelligent?

Two recent studies suggest Large Language Models reduce cognitive engagement and creativity

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 27

🇺🇸 President Trump's fiscal policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to widen the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.

Learn more about the economic impact here: think.ing.com/articles/how...

How President Trump’s plans will impact the US deficit

This article explores the US fiscal position, the impact of policies, external factor sensitivities, and long-term government projections

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 20

What's coming up next week...

Fed Chair Powell will no doubt defend the Fed’s data-driven stance amid political pressure to cut rates. Eurozone PMIs may confirm a services slowdown, while at the NATO Summit, new defence spending targets could be unveiled.

think.ing.com/articles/thi...

THINK Ahead: Fed Chair Powell on the defence

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses Congress next week amid tensions over interest rate policy

think.ing.com

1

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 13

The economic impact of the Israel/Iran tensions. What it means for energy markets, central banks, FX, rates and credit.

think.ing.com/articles/mid...

Middle East Conflict: What it means for macro and markets

Israel's strikes on Iran could take oil prices above $80. This has implications for the global economy, markets and policy

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 12

It's not every day ING's Carsten Brzeski compares the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies: full of drama and action but hard to follow.

As we approach the halfway mark for 2025, here's our take on what has – and hasn't – happened so far this year.

think.ing.com/bundles/ing-...

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 10

While the bar for the Bank of England to speed up rate cuts seems to be set fairly high, today's UK jobs data helps cement cuts in August and November.

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 6

Rachel Reeves may be smiling here, but the real challenge lies ahead as she hunts for extra cash in a tight fiscal landscape.

ING's James Smith looks at the options, and finds that tax rises later this year are almost inevitable.

think.ing.com/articles/fin...

Finding £20bn: The UK’s hunt for cash as fiscal headroom evaporates

UK tax rises look increasingly inevitable. Here's why

think.ing.com

ING Economics @ingeconomics.bsky.social · Jun 5

The ECB has cut interest rates to the lowest level since December 2022, bringing the deposit rate to 2%.

With the risk of inflation undershooting currently increasing, today’s rate cut will not be the last.

think.ing.com/snaps/ecb-cu...

ECB cuts rates by 25bp as risk of inflation undershooting increases

The ECB has cut interest rates once again, bringing the deposit rate to 2%

think.ing.com

1