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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 7h

Those numbers properly:
Presidential Election Poll - Red C for the Business Post #spéirghorm #ireland #aras25 #áras25

Connolly - 44% (56% of TVP of decided voters)
Humphreys - 25% (32%)
Gavin (withdrawn) - 10% (13%)
-
Undecided: 21%

Didn't ask about spoils, as B&A did.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 11h

Figure of 11% or so I gather for undecideds.

As I said last time: Not a deep well.

irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 12h

This Connolly % would be equal to what Michael D. Higgins achieved in 2018 when he was a sitting President facing no FF or FG candidate (but a SF candidate on that occasion). #aras25 #spéirghorm #áras25 #Ireland

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 12h

Business Post Poll leak (apparently) gives results as:

Connolly - 55%
Humphreys - 34%
Gavin - 10%

But can't be confirmed.

Would be consistent with the IT/Red C poll with perhaps the undecideds breaking slightly more for HH and JG. #aras25 #áras25 #spéirghorm #Ireland

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 2d

Anyone perplexed by Fine Gael's doubling down on CC's law career may be surprised to learn that there are 4 qualified barristers in cabinet, and one of them is Jennifer Carroll McNeill.
www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-...
#áras25 #spéirghorm #aras25 #ireland

Cabinet contains four qualified barristers

www.lawsociety.ie

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

And that's a minimum of 14 heads of state over 15 seperate terms.

irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

But if you go back to 1919, we've had:
Dev (1919 - 22, 59 - 73)
Griffith (22)
Cosgrave (22)
George V (22 - 36)
Edward VIII (36)
Frank Fahy or George V or Domhnall Ua Buachalla and Frank Fahy (36-37), and then
George V (37 - 49) or Douglas Hyde (38 - 45) and
O'Kelly (45 or 49 - 59)
Childers, etc.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

So Douglas Hyde might not count. But that doesn't impact our numbers IF you begin from 1937 (1938). If you start from there, we've had 9 heads of state and CC or HH will be No. 10.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

But who was the first?
Once again it is either the person you think it would be or the British King.
George VI retained some vestigial role in Dev's intentionally fudgey constitution, and as such signed letters of credence. Some would argue this made the King head of state until 1949...

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

We will ignore but the Presidential Commission as interim figures, but still credit them with holding office in 1938 (hello again Frank Fahy), 1974, 1976, 1997, and for 12 hours every time a new President was elected.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

You might start in 1937 and say that "Ireland" is the state that popped into being then, and not the 26 counties that had effectively been independent for years. Maybe then we have only had 9 heads of state. But... who was the first?

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

So the 1919 Republic also has 3 heads of state, or perhaps just 1, but that 1 is also counted as a head of state 50 years later. So lets say 0 or 2 additional heads of state from that period. Our poor collective heads.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

The 1919 Dáil Constitution didn't have a head of state explicitly until 1921, whereupon Dev became President of the Republic. In any event, he was effectively the head of state before then as President of Dáil Éireann. Arthur Griffith and WT Cosgrave also held this "lesser" title after de Valera.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

If the Irish Free State counts, does the Republic of 1916 or 1919 count? It isn't clear who the President of the 1916 Republic was but it was either Pearse or Thomas Clarke. In any event neither can claim to have been head of a functioning state.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

So if the Irish Free State counts, there's at least 3 heads of state and 2 of them are British Kings, the 3rd is either another King or Frank Fahy, or potentially Ua Buachalla followed by Fahy after June.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

(2) Ed VIII (for a day) & George VI remained Kings of Ireland, or
(3) Domhnall Ua Buachalla until June 1937? Dev didn't abolish the GG when he thought he did and abolished it again a few months later. It had no powers left though so even with the King stripped of a role, the GG also had no role.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

Dev uses the abdication of EdVIII to abolish the Gobernor General and Baidu remove the crown from the workings of the free state. So between Dec 1936 and Dec 1937, you can either say:
(1) Ceann Comhairle Frank Fahy was head of state because he signed bills into law and dissolved the Dáil (once), or

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

If by Ireland you include the Irish Free State, then George V at least was head of state from 1922 until his death in 1936, and Edward VIII until late 1936. They were represented by a governor-general who would not be considered head of state.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

Fiachra Ó Cionnaith has described the next President as the "10th Head of State" on RTÉ's website.

Is that correct? The answer is either yes, no or maybe. At the heart of it is the perfect fudge Éamon De Valera made of 3 constitutions (Dáil, Free State, and 1937)

#spéirghorm #aras25 #Ireland

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 5d

So @thejournal.ie went to find this out. The small sample of undecideds only tells us that the issues that cohort cares about are extremely diverse. Some are low info voters, some are unsatisfied high info voters - none seem served by the gotcha journalism so far.

#speirghorm #Aras25 #Ireland

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 6d

(4) I would love to see a breakdown of the issues that the undecideds want to know more about, and compare that to the fairly short list of topics (mostly 'scandals') being raised by interviewers again and again. There must be someone out there with strong opinions on article 13.2.2°

irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 6d

(3) The 6% spoilers is almost 9% of the decided turnout, a huge number (it was 1% in 2011 and 2018). The poll also asked people if Maria Steen's nomination should have been facilitated and 45% said yes. 17% also thought Jim Gavin was wrong to withdraw. Its a funny system and a funny race.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 6d

(2) 60% would see Catherine Connolly break Dev's record [56.3%] for best result in a contested Áras election. That would be extraordinary in fairness, and I wouldn't be surprised at a narrower margin.

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 6d

A lot to unpack here.

(1) 63% is a respectable turnout for an Áras election. I don't think 18% undecided represents a deep well to be tapped. If Humphreys is going to win, she needs to change some minds. Her campaign has been pretty timid so there's ample headroom for something new.

irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 6d

Presidential Election Poll - Ipsos/B&A for Irish Times #spéirghorm #ireland #aras25 @ipsosgroup.bsky.social @irishtimes.com

Connolly - 38% (60% of TVP of decided voters)
Humphreys - 20% (32%)
Gavin (withdrawn) - 5% (8%)
-
Undecided: 18%
Won't Vote: 12%
Will spoil ballot: 6%

Irish Times graphic of poll results with candidate head shots (Jim Gavin looking very unsure of himself).

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irishpolitics.bsky.social @irishpolitics.bsky.social · 6d

Presidential Election Poll - Ipsos/B&A for Irish Times #spéirghorm #ireland #aras25 @ipsosgroup.bsky.social @irishtimes.com

Connolly - 38% (60% of TVP of decided voters)
Humphreys - 20% (32%)
Gavin (withdrawn) - 5% (8%)
-
Undecided: 18%
Won't Vote: 12%
Will spoil ballot: 6%

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