I'm surprised Reform would be slightly below their national level polling (29%?) in Caerphilly. Would we be expecting them to be above it in other parts of the Valleys?
So if I'd moved to the UK in 2021 on SWV, got a job on 26k, and have a visa expiring next year, would I become eligible for deportation? Presumably I couldn't extend the visa or get ILR (below the threshold for both)?
Serious question - the salary threshold for skilled worker visas has been raised a lot in the last few years, and the salary threshold to get ILR if you are on this visa is the same (£41k atm). The visa only lasts 5 years and then can be renewed if you still meet the criteria
Lots of people I know say they don't want to do this because they don't want to damage the friendship. Maybe people take breakups harder than they used to?
Presumably more sophisticated savers can just put the money that would otherwise be in a cash ISA into something like this via a S&S ISA? It's probably what I will do www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/...
Does this mean "English as a second language" A-Level (or whatever the equivalent is)? Because this does not sound like the skills you'd need to pass a normal English Language/English Literature GCSE
What does "straight" mean here though? I could see some kind of crisis forcing the government to implement tax hikes/spending cuts and this ends up strengthening Reform and the Greens further
You can argue that this is elite-driven but Reform's performance at local elections and their polling is totally different to anything we have seen before, that is a significant change in public opinion.
I mean a party to the right of the Tories is currently polling at 25-30%, combined RW vote share is at nearly 50%, and Tommy Robinson's rallies are getting an order of magnitude more attendees than they used to
Yougov polled his favourability at the start of the year and 12% had a favourable opinion (4% strongly). That's a lot of people who mostly haven't previously turned up to his rallies!
Tbf from looking at the crowds he doesn't seem to have broadened his support to new demographics. Perhaps more people who previously shared his beliefs, but didn't care enough to actually protest, have been mobilised
There's also a stock vs flow thing - even if you think immigration concerns are just racism, cutting immigration intake after a period of high immigration means there are still a lot more migrants around than there were before.
I actually would have thought this might cut the other way - having your own place as a single person is very hard, but it's much easier if you couple up. If you're in London your choices are basically 1) earn 60k+ 2) meet someone 3) live in flatshares indefinitely
Anecdotally I've spoken to a few women who had a kid at ~35 and another at ~37 who say that now they have them, they wish they'd had them earlier so they could have had another
It's a common talking point on the US right that when you break scores down by race, American asians and whites are right at the top. This may be what he's thinking of.
Tbf Japan has increasing immigration and a lot of tourists. If you're really angry at non-Japanese speaking foreigners being everywhere you probably don't care if they're tourists or immigrants.
