Jonathan Frei
@jcfrei.bsky.social
software and finance guy. all opinions my own.
threads.net/@jcfrei, https://x.com/jcfrei
threads.net/@jcfrei, https://x.com/jcfrei
Polymarket odds of US striking Iran and Brent Oil Price Futures are trading in tandem at the moment.
February 18, 2026 at 12:39 PM
Polymarket odds of US striking Iran and Brent Oil Price Futures are trading in tandem at the moment.
Seems like a good time to post a little update for this:
- Annualized fee spending on Solana: ~$359M
- Terminal rate still ~3% pa
- PV of all future fee income is just about $12B
- PV divided by the number of SOL: ~$19
This is the price floor for Solana with current fee income
- Annualized fee spending on Solana: ~$359M
- Terminal rate still ~3% pa
- PV of all future fee income is just about $12B
- PV divided by the number of SOL: ~$19
This is the price floor for Solana with current fee income
February 5, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Seems like a good time to post a little update for this:
- Annualized fee spending on Solana: ~$359M
- Terminal rate still ~3% pa
- PV of all future fee income is just about $12B
- PV divided by the number of SOL: ~$19
This is the price floor for Solana with current fee income
- Annualized fee spending on Solana: ~$359M
- Terminal rate still ~3% pa
- PV of all future fee income is just about $12B
- PV divided by the number of SOL: ~$19
This is the price floor for Solana with current fee income
Musk buying twitter was the big story of 2022. He and his friends pooled some funds to turn twitter into this bastion of free speech coupled with high user engagement - in short: an advertiser’s dream. Something like that must have been the pitch he gave his buddies back then.
February 4, 2026 at 5:39 PM
Musk buying twitter was the big story of 2022. He and his friends pooled some funds to turn twitter into this bastion of free speech coupled with high user engagement - in short: an advertiser’s dream. Something like that must have been the pitch he gave his buddies back then.
When software gets super cheap to make guess who suffers most? Software makers, duh. Economics for writing code have completely changed in the last 2 years and lots of moats will disappear. Walmart entering the $1T club today is equally telling -having real infra matters again. x.com/TheStalwart/...
February 3, 2026 at 11:21 PM
When software gets super cheap to make guess who suffers most? Software makers, duh. Economics for writing code have completely changed in the last 2 years and lots of moats will disappear. Walmart entering the $1T club today is equally telling -having real infra matters again. x.com/TheStalwart/...
Italien setzt sich über WTO und Freihandelsabkommen hinweg und schafft Steuervorteile für Firmen aus dem EWR. Was kann die Schweiz dagegen machen? Nicht viel, da WTO selber keine Sanktionen durchsetzt. Einziger realistischer Weg ist EU um Hilfe bitten.
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/italien-bena...
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/italien-bena...
January 27, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Italien setzt sich über WTO und Freihandelsabkommen hinweg und schafft Steuervorteile für Firmen aus dem EWR. Was kann die Schweiz dagegen machen? Nicht viel, da WTO selber keine Sanktionen durchsetzt. Einziger realistischer Weg ist EU um Hilfe bitten.
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/italien-bena...
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/italien-bena...
eBay already banning AI agents that automatically browse the web and buy for the user. early sign of how disruptive agents will be for our shopping habits and e-commerce. companies trying to adapt will thrive - those which just try to resist likely won't.
www.valueaddedresource.net/ebay-bans-ai...
www.valueaddedresource.net/ebay-bans-ai...
eBay Explicitly Bans AI “Buy For Me” Agents, Updates Arbitration & Dispute Rules In User Agreement Update
eBay bans AI “buy for me” agents & LLM scrapers, updates arbitration & dispute resolution rules in User Agreement update effective Feb. 20, 2026.
www.valueaddedresource.net
January 24, 2026 at 12:40 AM
eBay already banning AI agents that automatically browse the web and buy for the user. early sign of how disruptive agents will be for our shopping habits and e-commerce. companies trying to adapt will thrive - those which just try to resist likely won't.
www.valueaddedresource.net/ebay-bans-ai...
www.valueaddedresource.net/ebay-bans-ai...
With Trump imposing new tariffs to get Greenland the ruling by the Supreme Court carries even more weight. The two recent delays tell me they will likely chicken out with some bs juristic ruling that keeps them effectively in place. Odds of approval: 33% polymarket.com/event/will-t...
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Predicti... | Polymarket
View real-time odds on "Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?" as of January 17, 2026, and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
polymarket.com
January 17, 2026 at 5:57 PM
With Trump imposing new tariffs to get Greenland the ruling by the Supreme Court carries even more weight. The two recent delays tell me they will likely chicken out with some bs juristic ruling that keeps them effectively in place. Odds of approval: 33% polymarket.com/event/will-t...
very exciting times ahead. chatbots could well upend the advertising market on the web. x.com/OpenAI/statu...
January 17, 2026 at 5:33 PM
very exciting times ahead. chatbots could well upend the advertising market on the web. x.com/OpenAI/statu...
European pensions are largely unfunded and paid out of government revenues. Which in turn are mostly funded through income taxes. With the share of pensioners rising and AI replacing remaining workers - who will pay the pensions? Only realistic way seems money printing.
January 13, 2026 at 9:27 PM
European pensions are largely unfunded and paid out of government revenues. Which in turn are mostly funded through income taxes. With the share of pensioners rising and AI replacing remaining workers - who will pay the pensions? Only realistic way seems money printing.
Interesting to see the recent rise in Monero prices. Is there a genuine shift from Bitcoin to privacy coins happening? Or do we see a repetition of 2018 and 2021 where an increase in Monero transactions signaled liquidity leaving the market?
January 13, 2026 at 9:26 PM
Interesting to see the recent rise in Monero prices. Is there a genuine shift from Bitcoin to privacy coins happening? Or do we see a repetition of 2018 and 2021 where an increase in Monero transactions signaled liquidity leaving the market?
US will get even more TSMC fabs thanks to a trade deal. Once Taiwan gets into the crosshairs Europe will once again find itself dependent on the US, not for gas but for chips. The old continent is as usual a dollar short & a minute late www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...
Trump Administration Nears Trade Deal With Taiwan
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2026 at 10:20 PM
US will get even more TSMC fabs thanks to a trade deal. Once Taiwan gets into the crosshairs Europe will once again find itself dependent on the US, not for gas but for chips. The old continent is as usual a dollar short & a minute late www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...
Maduro lacking legitimacy still doesn't give US a free pass for regime change. But since the deed is already done, let's look for some positives: Sanctions on Venezuelan oil industry will soon be lifted and lower global oil prices further. Good for consumers, bad for petrostates.
January 3, 2026 at 1:18 PM
Maduro lacking legitimacy still doesn't give US a free pass for regime change. But since the deed is already done, let's look for some positives: Sanctions on Venezuelan oil industry will soon be lifted and lower global oil prices further. Good for consumers, bad for petrostates.
One of the rare instances where polymarket got it completely wrong: Maduro's removal from power was way under priced just 12hrs ago at roughly 7% chance.
January 3, 2026 at 12:35 PM
One of the rare instances where polymarket got it completely wrong: Maduro's removal from power was way under priced just 12hrs ago at roughly 7% chance.
We enter 2026 close to record highs in gold, silver and stocks. Notably absent? Bitcoin. Having failed to double over the last 4 years and therefore facing a shrinking security budget there's a painful realization coming for the maxis: Scarcity alone is not enough of a feature.
December 31, 2025 at 4:40 PM
We enter 2026 close to record highs in gold, silver and stocks. Notably absent? Bitcoin. Having failed to double over the last 4 years and therefore facing a shrinking security budget there's a painful realization coming for the maxis: Scarcity alone is not enough of a feature.
Treasury auctions in Japan are something to watch out for in 2026. Yields on the 2 year are now at their highest ever in the 2000s. Looks like a showdown between the new Gov and BoJ is coming quickly. Either Gov cuts spending massively (just kidding) or JPY debasement is next.
December 26, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Treasury auctions in Japan are something to watch out for in 2026. Yields on the 2 year are now at their highest ever in the 2000s. Looks like a showdown between the new Gov and BoJ is coming quickly. Either Gov cuts spending massively (just kidding) or JPY debasement is next.
The EU is still not a serious global actor capable of defending its interests - and likely never will be. A deal to use frozen assets before year end will fail according to Polymarket. The vote requiring a qualified majority will not happen due to reasonable Belgian concerns.
December 17, 2025 at 6:08 PM
The EU is still not a serious global actor capable of defending its interests - and likely never will be. A deal to use frozen assets before year end will fail according to Polymarket. The vote requiring a qualified majority will not happen due to reasonable Belgian concerns.
The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.
November 19, 2025 at 8:28 PM
The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.
Is Nvidia the Cisco of the 2020s? Currently their GPUs are the bottleneck for AI. Just like demand for Cisco's routers made them the most valuable firm in the Nasdaq in 2000. But over time the real winners were those who built on top of this infra: Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.
November 19, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Is Nvidia the Cisco of the 2020s? Currently their GPUs are the bottleneck for AI. Just like demand for Cisco's routers made them the most valuable firm in the Nasdaq in 2000. But over time the real winners were those who built on top of this infra: Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.
Ist das ein guter Deal für die Schweiz? 200 Mia. die nun in die USA fliessen für eine Zollreduktion die ohnehin kommen wird wenn der Supreme Court der Trump Regierung die ggw. Gesetzesgrundlage für weitreichende Tariffs entzieht: polymarket.com/event/will-t...
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the...
polymarket.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Ist das ein guter Deal für die Schweiz? 200 Mia. die nun in die USA fliessen für eine Zollreduktion die ohnehin kommen wird wenn der Supreme Court der Trump Regierung die ggw. Gesetzesgrundlage für weitreichende Tariffs entzieht: polymarket.com/event/will-t...
Apparently a new trade deal between CH + US is coming. Though I can't really imagine which concessions Swiss side was ready to make to get same rate as EU. Some LNG deal? Allow US meat? Both unlikely to pass parliament. Moving gold biz to US? A bit too little for a 24% cut.
November 13, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Apparently a new trade deal between CH + US is coming. Though I can't really imagine which concessions Swiss side was ready to make to get same rate as EU. Some LNG deal? Allow US meat? Both unlikely to pass parliament. Moving gold biz to US? A bit too little for a 24% cut.
If your largest donor (US Gov) doesn't like your oil demand predictions and threatens to defund you then you might as well just change your prediction with a little wink.
IEA sees global oil supply growth driving larger market glut reut.rs/4i3kXXE
IEA sees global oil supply growth driving larger market glut
The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, signalling a deeper surplus in 2026.
reut.rs
November 13, 2025 at 11:08 PM
If your largest donor (US Gov) doesn't like your oil demand predictions and threatens to defund you then you might as well just change your prediction with a little wink.
This chart is currently making the rounds. Is the replacement of labour with capital investments really going to be that obvious? I fear that AI is going to reduce bargaining power for workers - meaning shittier jobs for lower pay - not reducing overall employment.
November 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
This chart is currently making the rounds. Is the replacement of labour with capital investments really going to be that obvious? I fear that AI is going to reduce bargaining power for workers - meaning shittier jobs for lower pay - not reducing overall employment.
Is the future of E-commerce shopping without ever leaving your chatbot? The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) by OpenAI seems like a step in that direction: openai.com/index/buy-it...
Buy it in ChatGPT: Instant Checkout and the Agentic Commerce Protocol
We’re taking first steps toward agentic commerce in ChatGPT with new ways for people, AI agents, and businesses to shop together.
openai.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Is the future of E-commerce shopping without ever leaving your chatbot? The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) by OpenAI seems like a step in that direction: openai.com/index/buy-it...
Unstable governments are probably going to become a staple. especially in countries where the populace shuns economic reality and expects a welfare system that tax revenue cannot provide. proposed wealth taxes - when introduced unilaterally - will just lead to a lower tax base.
Breaking News: Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu of France resigned in a surprise move that came less than 24 hours after forming a cabinet.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu Resigns
Sébastien Lecornu stepped down less than 24 hours after he had formed his cabinet.
nyti.ms
October 6, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Unstable governments are probably going to become a staple. especially in countries where the populace shuns economic reality and expects a welfare system that tax revenue cannot provide. proposed wealth taxes - when introduced unilaterally - will just lead to a lower tax base.