Jean Fisch
@jeanfisch.bsky.social
Analysis, rationalism & objectivity are my sins
If covid still appears in your feed, you will be reading "covid on the rebound" in more or less everywhere in western economies despite a wave not 3 months ago
The reason is a new kid on the block: BA.3.2.X (which also got put on the watch list by WHO)
So a rebound is "normal"
The reason is a new kid on the block: BA.3.2.X (which also got put on the watch list by WHO)
So a rebound is "normal"
December 11, 2025 at 8:09 AM
If covid still appears in your feed, you will be reading "covid on the rebound" in more or less everywhere in western economies despite a wave not 3 months ago
The reason is a new kid on the block: BA.3.2.X (which also got put on the watch list by WHO)
So a rebound is "normal"
The reason is a new kid on the block: BA.3.2.X (which also got put on the watch list by WHO)
So a rebound is "normal"
We are getting close to year end so it's possible to guestimate quite accurately the number of death registrations that ONS expected for England and Wales at the beginning of 2025
It's a decrease vs those expected for 2024 but it's sill implausibly high
Let me explain how this happened
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It's a decrease vs those expected for 2024 but it's sill implausibly high
Let me explain how this happened
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December 10, 2025 at 11:29 AM
We are getting close to year end so it's possible to guestimate quite accurately the number of death registrations that ONS expected for England and Wales at the beginning of 2025
It's a decrease vs those expected for 2024 but it's sill implausibly high
Let me explain how this happened
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It's a decrease vs those expected for 2024 but it's sill implausibly high
Let me explain how this happened
1/
Reposted by Jean Fisch
So, some people here are concerned with the sentence in this document that, "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so" - what does it this mean? 🧵/1
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
NHS England » Framework for managing the response to pandemic diseases
NHS England » Framework for managing the response to pandemic diseases
www.england.nhs.uk
December 8, 2025 at 6:15 AM
So, some people here are concerned with the sentence in this document that, "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so" - what does it this mean? 🧵/1
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
Reposted by Jean Fisch
Oh and while I am on the subject of mortality in France, here the situation on cancer
Remember:
- Cancer deaths in <65 are essentially in adults
- Vax uptake among adults in <65 was >90% in France
So if there was a turbo-cancer effect, we should see it on the chart
Remember:
- Cancer deaths in <65 are essentially in adults
- Vax uptake among adults in <65 was >90% in France
So if there was a turbo-cancer effect, we should see it on the chart
December 7, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Oh and while I am on the subject of mortality in France, here the situation on cancer
Remember:
- Cancer deaths in <65 are essentially in adults
- Vax uptake among adults in <65 was >90% in France
So if there was a turbo-cancer effect, we should see it on the chart
Remember:
- Cancer deaths in <65 are essentially in adults
- Vax uptake among adults in <65 was >90% in France
So if there was a turbo-cancer effect, we should see it on the chart
I see claims about "there was lots of excess in France among the young" on the back of the French study of vax vs. non vax
There is none except for covid ... and external causes
So if you believe vaccines make people do stupid things, you have your confirmatory chart ;-)
There is none except for covid ... and external causes
So if you believe vaccines make people do stupid things, you have your confirmatory chart ;-)
December 6, 2025 at 3:40 PM
I see claims about "there was lots of excess in France among the young" on the back of the French study of vax vs. non vax
There is none except for covid ... and external causes
So if you believe vaccines make people do stupid things, you have your confirmatory chart ;-)
There is none except for covid ... and external causes
So if you believe vaccines make people do stupid things, you have your confirmatory chart ;-)
Next interesting / puzzling / frustrating things about the French vaxed vs unvaxed study of 18-59yo
A) Data consistency: End Nov 2021, France had
- 30.5m vaxed (Santé Publique open data)
- 35.1m residents (INSEE)
so ~4.9m 18-59yo unvaxed
Yet the study identified 5.9m unvaxed in their system
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A) Data consistency: End Nov 2021, France had
- 30.5m vaxed (Santé Publique open data)
- 35.1m residents (INSEE)
so ~4.9m 18-59yo unvaxed
Yet the study identified 5.9m unvaxed in their system
1/
December 6, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Next interesting / puzzling / frustrating things about the French vaxed vs unvaxed study of 18-59yo
A) Data consistency: End Nov 2021, France had
- 30.5m vaxed (Santé Publique open data)
- 35.1m residents (INSEE)
so ~4.9m 18-59yo unvaxed
Yet the study identified 5.9m unvaxed in their system
1/
A) Data consistency: End Nov 2021, France had
- 30.5m vaxed (Santé Publique open data)
- 35.1m residents (INSEE)
so ~4.9m 18-59yo unvaxed
Yet the study identified 5.9m unvaxed in their system
1/
Quick warning: The @epiphare.bsky.social study on vax/unvaxed mortality in France is very interesting
However, it does not show "covid vax does not increase mortality" as claimed by its president
For that, one would need to know the relationship of mortality BEFORE VAX and this is not available
However, it does not show "covid vax does not increase mortality" as claimed by its president
For that, one would need to know the relationship of mortality BEFORE VAX and this is not available
December 6, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Quick warning: The @epiphare.bsky.social study on vax/unvaxed mortality in France is very interesting
However, it does not show "covid vax does not increase mortality" as claimed by its president
For that, one would need to know the relationship of mortality BEFORE VAX and this is not available
However, it does not show "covid vax does not increase mortality" as claimed by its president
For that, one would need to know the relationship of mortality BEFORE VAX and this is not available
This super interesting factor-adjusted pop level study compared 4-year mortality of working aged ever and never vaxed in France
Result
- Confirmation of a healthy vaccinee bias: 25% lower mortality among vaxed
- A 75% lower covid mortality
This indicates a RR of 66% but only potentially
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Result
- Confirmation of a healthy vaccinee bias: 25% lower mortality among vaxed
- A 75% lower covid mortality
This indicates a RR of 66% but only potentially
1/
December 5, 2025 at 1:24 PM
This super interesting factor-adjusted pop level study compared 4-year mortality of working aged ever and never vaxed in France
Result
- Confirmation of a healthy vaccinee bias: 25% lower mortality among vaxed
- A 75% lower covid mortality
This indicates a RR of 66% but only potentially
1/
Result
- Confirmation of a healthy vaccinee bias: 25% lower mortality among vaxed
- A 75% lower covid mortality
This indicates a RR of 66% but only potentially
1/
Throughout western Europe, covid had a surge back in October and is receding fast ... except in Germany, where it seems to be wanting to do an encore (for whatever reason)
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December 3, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Throughout western Europe, covid had a surge back in October and is receding fast ... except in Germany, where it seems to be wanting to do an encore (for whatever reason)
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The trial results of Pfizer's mRNA vax in the 18-64 got published (as it's only 34% efficacy against normal vax, there are big discussions)
But another data point in the study caught my eye, the infection rate: It was "only" 0.6-0.9% during the winter 22/23 flu wave
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But another data point in the study caught my eye, the infection rate: It was "only" 0.6-0.9% during the winter 22/23 flu wave
1/
November 27, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The trial results of Pfizer's mRNA vax in the 18-64 got published (as it's only 34% efficacy against normal vax, there are big discussions)
But another data point in the study caught my eye, the infection rate: It was "only" 0.6-0.9% during the winter 22/23 flu wave
1/
But another data point in the study caught my eye, the infection rate: It was "only" 0.6-0.9% during the winter 22/23 flu wave
1/
This study looked at development issues in young children using pop data from standard moments of checks in Scotland
It shows an increase in development issues after the start of the pandemic
What is a bit puzzling (and thus interesting) is why it remained high afterwards
It shows an increase in development issues after the start of the pandemic
What is a bit puzzling (and thus interesting) is why it remained high afterwards
November 27, 2025 at 10:12 AM
This study looked at development issues in young children using pop data from standard moments of checks in Scotland
It shows an increase in development issues after the start of the pandemic
What is a bit puzzling (and thus interesting) is why it remained high afterwards
It shows an increase in development issues after the start of the pandemic
What is a bit puzzling (and thus interesting) is why it remained high afterwards
Five years ago on this day, a full blown (no punt intended) gay sex party got busted in Brussels, in a full lockdown at the time
It made news because of one of its participants but it's the almost comical details that I want to bring back here😀
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www.bbc.com/news/world-e...
It made news because of one of its participants but it's the almost comical details that I want to bring back here😀
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www.bbc.com/news/world-e...
Jozsef Szajer: Hungary MEP quits after allegedly fleeing gay orgy
A top member of a party hostile to LGBT rights is said to have attended a "gay sex party" in Brussels.
www.bbc.com
November 27, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Five years ago on this day, a full blown (no punt intended) gay sex party got busted in Brussels, in a full lockdown at the time
It made news because of one of its participants but it's the almost comical details that I want to bring back here😀
1/
www.bbc.com/news/world-e...
It made news because of one of its participants but it's the almost comical details that I want to bring back here😀
1/
www.bbc.com/news/world-e...
This (PUBLISHED!) paper is gaga: Hold on tight, all from world OWID data!
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
November 26, 2025 at 6:48 PM
This (PUBLISHED!) paper is gaga: Hold on tight, all from world OWID data!
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
- vax cannot have saved lives: excess was higher in 2021 than 2020 so 2021 excess is from vax
- 40% of the pop was vaxed so 40% of deaths was vaxed
Ergo: vaxed had 15% higher mortality than unvaxed🤪
Question to the experts: I have read the paper twice and still can't find a paragraph which lays out the analysis they made
Is it me or what did I miss? Thanks for any input
Is it me or what did I miss? Thanks for any input
Covid-19 has been linked to cardiovascular complications, but the long-term impacts, particularly for mild infections, are not well understood. A study in Nature Communications demonstrate an increased risk of cardiovascular disease after Covid-19, also among mild cases. #medsky #cardiosky 🧪
Covid-19 and cardiovascular disease in a total population-study of long-term effects, social factors and Covid-19-vaccination - Nature Communications
Covid-19 has been linked to cardiovascular complications, but the long-term impacts, particularly for mild infections, are not well understood. Here, the authors investigate the long-term impacts of Covid-19 on cardiovascular disease using data on the whole population of Sweden aged 40-75 years.
go.nature.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Question to the experts: I have read the paper twice and still can't find a paragraph which lays out the analysis they made
Is it me or what did I miss? Thanks for any input
Is it me or what did I miss? Thanks for any input
Quick warning: A paper published by @royalsocietypublishing.org on mortality by State in Germany found that "the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the increase in excess in pandemic yr 3 vs 2"
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
November 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Quick warning: A paper published by @royalsocietypublishing.org on mortality by State in Germany found that "the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the increase in excess in pandemic yr 3 vs 2"
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
The paper suspects vaccines as a cause... without a word on the huge flu wave that hit DE in yr 3 🙄
Let me show how useless the conclusion of UK's covid inquiry is that "UK should have locked down 1 wk earlier"
Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
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Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
1/
November 23, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Let me show how useless the conclusion of UK's covid inquiry is that "UK should have locked down 1 wk earlier"
Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
1/
Here the report of GOV UK of 10/3/2020:
- 373 cases, flatish
- 6 deaths
Is that the threshold to close 5d later next time (and take the full societal and economic hit)?
1/
This one is to be framed: The covid pandemic debate since 2020, here illustrated on lockdowns
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
November 22, 2025 at 10:14 AM
This one is to be framed: The covid pandemic debate since 2020, here illustrated on lockdowns
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
(extract from @whippletom.bsky.social's brilliant piece in the times yesterday: www.thetimes.com/article/3c7c...)
Quick reality check for the "UK should have just followed the Swedish example" aficionados
If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
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If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
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November 22, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Quick reality check for the "UK should have just followed the Swedish example" aficionados
If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
1/
If you believe that the raw figures of SE are telling for the UK, then logic tells you that UK/SE should have done what DK did😉
1/
@cbsstatistiek.bsky.social (the Dutch Statistics Office) released today its monthly deaths by cause report up to May 2025
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
November 21, 2025 at 5:57 PM
@cbsstatistiek.bsky.social (the Dutch Statistics Office) released today its monthly deaths by cause report up to May 2025
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
Here the situation for cancer vs. pre-pandemic trends
I find the conclusion line of UK's covid inquiry poor
- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
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- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
1/
November 21, 2025 at 9:15 AM
I find the conclusion line of UK's covid inquiry poor
- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
1/
- "be more prudent next time" has zero actionable value
- Rationale put forward relies on counterfactuals and does not include that measures only delay never avoid
However, most of the report's critique is equally poor
1/
CDC has created a page on autism and vaccines which says
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
November 20, 2025 at 7:45 AM
CDC has created a page on autism and vaccines which says
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
So far, nobody has been able to unequivocally rule out a link
(among others, it claims that the large studies showing no link - all done outside the US - are not applicable to the US because of vax schedule differences)
I read both in the US and in DE: "we had a pandemic plan, why the hell did we not stick to it ?!?"
I went through both plans: Neither includes any impact sizing on mortality
A plan without impact sizing is not a plan but a Kinder surprise egg: You may like the surprise... or not
I went through both plans: Neither includes any impact sizing on mortality
A plan without impact sizing is not a plan but a Kinder surprise egg: You may like the surprise... or not
November 16, 2025 at 6:03 PM
I read both in the US and in DE: "we had a pandemic plan, why the hell did we not stick to it ?!?"
I went through both plans: Neither includes any impact sizing on mortality
A plan without impact sizing is not a plan but a Kinder surprise egg: You may like the surprise... or not
I went through both plans: Neither includes any impact sizing on mortality
A plan without impact sizing is not a plan but a Kinder surprise egg: You may like the surprise... or not
Sigh... "Could vaccines have caused big excess in England?" is brought up again by a British newspaper
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
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So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
November 16, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Sigh... "Could vaccines have caused big excess in England?" is brought up again by a British newspaper
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
So here is how excess looks like vs expected from pre-pandemic mortality trend once you account for covid, flu & heat
So the answer is known: "No the vaccines could not"
1/
I missed this interesting paper: Swedish pharma-surveillance scientists reviewed the 456 reports of suspected fatality post vax in Sweden
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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November 14, 2025 at 4:47 PM
I missed this interesting paper: Swedish pharma-surveillance scientists reviewed the 456 reports of suspected fatality post vax in Sweden
They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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They found 10 with clear vaccine link (amounting to the famous X per million also found elsewhere)
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Also in Australia, covid cases, ICU and deaths evolve in sync with the expected delay of a week between each state
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
November 14, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Also in Australia, covid cases, ICU and deaths evolve in sync with the expected delay of a week between each state
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections
Interestingly, the "in hospital" data (stopped end of 2023) never showed the "lows" of the other indicators
This smells of significant in-hospital infections