Jeppe H. Olesen
@jeppe.bsky.social
I yap a lot about motorsports.
Previously: Formula 1 | Now: European Le Mans Series
https://raceweekrecap.com
Previously: Formula 1 | Now: European Le Mans Series
https://raceweekrecap.com
Rumours about the FIA currently investigating the McLarens are wholly unfounded.
The FIA have already released the post race scrutineering documents, and the checks include passed plank wear tests for both Piastri and Norris.
The FIA have already released the post race scrutineering documents, and the checks include passed plank wear tests for both Piastri and Norris.
November 30, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Rumours about the FIA currently investigating the McLarens are wholly unfounded.
The FIA have already released the post race scrutineering documents, and the checks include passed plank wear tests for both Piastri and Norris.
The FIA have already released the post race scrutineering documents, and the checks include passed plank wear tests for both Piastri and Norris.
The Championship Maths are super simple this week. One race to go, that will decide it all.
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris in Abu Dhabi to take the title:
Verstappen: 12.0 points
Piastri: 16.0 points
1/3 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris in Abu Dhabi to take the title:
Verstappen: 12.0 points
Piastri: 16.0 points
1/3 🧵
November 30, 2025 at 6:29 PM
The Championship Maths are super simple this week. One race to go, that will decide it all.
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris in Abu Dhabi to take the title:
Verstappen: 12.0 points
Piastri: 16.0 points
1/3 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris in Abu Dhabi to take the title:
Verstappen: 12.0 points
Piastri: 16.0 points
1/3 🧵
Ran my little F1 championship odds model again after the Qatar sprint. These are the updated numbers:
Norris: ~74% (+6%)
Verstappen: ~20% (-8%)
Piastri: ~6% (+2%)
Norris: ~74% (+6%)
Verstappen: ~20% (-8%)
Piastri: ~6% (+2%)
November 29, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Ran my little F1 championship odds model again after the Qatar sprint. These are the updated numbers:
Norris: ~74% (+6%)
Verstappen: ~20% (-8%)
Piastri: ~6% (+2%)
Norris: ~74% (+6%)
Verstappen: ~20% (-8%)
Piastri: ~6% (+2%)
Updates submitted for the Qatar GP:
VCARB
- Front wing: Gurney option for front flap
McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams, Sauber:
No updates submitted.
VCARB
- Front wing: Gurney option for front flap
McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams, Sauber:
No updates submitted.
November 28, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Updates submitted for the Qatar GP:
VCARB
- Front wing: Gurney option for front flap
McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams, Sauber:
No updates submitted.
VCARB
- Front wing: Gurney option for front flap
McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams, Sauber:
No updates submitted.
Las Vegas puts on an incredible show, but does it actually work as a Formula 1 race? Ticket price drops, odd podium ceremonies, and manufactured hype makes me question it.
Read my take on why F1 has a Las Vegas sized problem 👇
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/24/f...
Read my take on why F1 has a Las Vegas sized problem 👇
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/24/f...
Formula 1 has a Las Vegas Sized Problem
Las Vegas delivers spectacle, but Formula 1 still can’t find real demand or identity there. A glittering race without the soul to match.
raceweekrecap.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Las Vegas puts on an incredible show, but does it actually work as a Formula 1 race? Ticket price drops, odd podium ceremonies, and manufactured hype makes me question it.
Read my take on why F1 has a Las Vegas sized problem 👇
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/24/f...
Read my take on why F1 has a Las Vegas sized problem 👇
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/24/f...
Updated the model after McLaren’s double DSQ and refined how it treats DSQs and DNFs. The numbers shifted. A lot.
Title odds after Las Vegas:
Norris: ~68%
Verstappen: ~28%
Piastri: ~4%
Title odds after Las Vegas:
Norris: ~68%
Verstappen: ~28%
Piastri: ~4%
November 23, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Updated the model after McLaren’s double DSQ and refined how it treats DSQs and DNFs. The numbers shifted. A lot.
Title odds after Las Vegas:
Norris: ~68%
Verstappen: ~28%
Piastri: ~4%
Title odds after Las Vegas:
Norris: ~68%
Verstappen: ~28%
Piastri: ~4%
Both McLarens are disqualified from the Las Vegas GP, so lets redo the maths:
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 12.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 12.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 12.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 12.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
November 23, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Both McLarens are disqualified from the Las Vegas GP, so lets redo the maths:
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 12.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 12.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 12.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 12.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
I put together a small script that calculates the percentage chances for the remaining contenders to become champion.
After today, these are the odds:
Norris: ~96%
Piastri: ~3%
Verstappen: ~1%
After today, these are the odds:
Norris: ~96%
Piastri: ~3%
Verstappen: ~1%
November 23, 2025 at 5:38 AM
I put together a small script that calculates the percentage chances for the remaining contenders to become champion.
After today, these are the odds:
Norris: ~96%
Piastri: ~3%
Verstappen: ~1%
After today, these are the odds:
Norris: ~96%
Piastri: ~3%
Verstappen: ~1%
Verstappen keeps the hope alive, and Piastri slips further.
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 16.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 21.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 16.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 21.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
November 23, 2025 at 5:33 AM
Verstappen keeps the hope alive, and Piastri slips further.
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 16.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 21.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:
Piastri: 16.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 21.0 points per weekend
1/2 🧵
Vegas timings always throw me off, but here are the updates for this weekend:
McLaren:
- Front wing: Trimmed Front Wing Flap
- Rear wing: Reduced Chord Rear Wing Flap
Red Bull:
- Front wing: Front wing flaps with reduced cambers and chords
VCARB:
- Rear wing: Updated rear wing flap profile
1/2 🧵
McLaren:
- Front wing: Trimmed Front Wing Flap
- Rear wing: Reduced Chord Rear Wing Flap
Red Bull:
- Front wing: Front wing flaps with reduced cambers and chords
VCARB:
- Rear wing: Updated rear wing flap profile
1/2 🧵
November 21, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Vegas timings always throw me off, but here are the updates for this weekend:
McLaren:
- Front wing: Trimmed Front Wing Flap
- Rear wing: Reduced Chord Rear Wing Flap
Red Bull:
- Front wing: Front wing flaps with reduced cambers and chords
VCARB:
- Rear wing: Updated rear wing flap profile
1/2 🧵
McLaren:
- Front wing: Trimmed Front Wing Flap
- Rear wing: Reduced Chord Rear Wing Flap
Red Bull:
- Front wing: Front wing flaps with reduced cambers and chords
VCARB:
- Rear wing: Updated rear wing flap profile
1/2 🧵
If you are confused about who actually won the Massa vs FIA ruling, you are not alone. Here is what the judge decided:
1/5 🧵
1/5 🧵
November 21, 2025 at 12:56 AM
If you are confused about who actually won the Massa vs FIA ruling, you are not alone. Here is what the judge decided:
1/5 🧵
1/5 🧵
The Race Week Recap has been a bit quieter lately, and there’s a reason for that. With some big changes in my full-time job and a new schedule coming in January, the format will shift toward more flexible, topic-driven posts.
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/20/a...
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/20/a...
An Update About the Race Week Recap
Recaps are shifting to flexible, topic-focused posts as my schedule changes. I’ll share deeper stories when they’re worth exploring.
raceweekrecap.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The Race Week Recap has been a bit quieter lately, and there’s a reason for that. With some big changes in my full-time job and a new schedule coming in January, the format will shift toward more flexible, topic-driven posts.
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/20/a...
raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/20/a...
If I had invested in the various F1 parent companies in November 2015, a decade ago, how would I be doing today?
Let's assume an initial investment of €100, with an additional investment of another €100 every month since then.
1/8 🧵
Let's assume an initial investment of €100, with an additional investment of another €100 every month since then.
1/8 🧵
November 20, 2025 at 2:52 PM
If I had invested in the various F1 parent companies in November 2015, a decade ago, how would I be doing today?
Let's assume an initial investment of €100, with an additional investment of another €100 every month since then.
1/8 🧵
Let's assume an initial investment of €100, with an additional investment of another €100 every month since then.
1/8 🧵
If my count is correct, these are the drivers who will be forced to leave F1 Academy after Las Vegas, unless they manage to get the one year extension recently introduced:
- Doriane Pin
- Tina Hausmann
- Chloe Chong
- Lia Block
- Maya Weug
- Chloe Chambers
- Doriane Pin
- Tina Hausmann
- Chloe Chong
- Lia Block
- Maya Weug
- Chloe Chambers
November 19, 2025 at 5:27 PM
If my count is correct, these are the drivers who will be forced to leave F1 Academy after Las Vegas, unless they manage to get the one year extension recently introduced:
- Doriane Pin
- Tina Hausmann
- Chloe Chong
- Lia Block
- Maya Weug
- Chloe Chambers
- Doriane Pin
- Tina Hausmann
- Chloe Chong
- Lia Block
- Maya Weug
- Chloe Chambers
F1 fans: We want some drama!
Vegas weather: Bet.
(Video courtesy of Christen Drummond / NEWS 3 Las Vegas)
Vegas weather: Bet.
(Video courtesy of Christen Drummond / NEWS 3 Las Vegas)
November 19, 2025 at 2:29 PM
F1 fans: We want some drama!
Vegas weather: Bet.
(Video courtesy of Christen Drummond / NEWS 3 Las Vegas)
Vegas weather: Bet.
(Video courtesy of Christen Drummond / NEWS 3 Las Vegas)
Give me your best plots for the F1 2 movie.
My take: Archaeologists accidentally unearth a cursed sarcophagus underneath the Monaco pit lane, awakening the ancient spirit of a vengeful charioteer.
The curse falls on Sonny, who becomes a zombie obsessed with brains and racing.
My take: Archaeologists accidentally unearth a cursed sarcophagus underneath the Monaco pit lane, awakening the ancient spirit of a vengeful charioteer.
The curse falls on Sonny, who becomes a zombie obsessed with brains and racing.
November 18, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Give me your best plots for the F1 2 movie.
My take: Archaeologists accidentally unearth a cursed sarcophagus underneath the Monaco pit lane, awakening the ancient spirit of a vengeful charioteer.
The curse falls on Sonny, who becomes a zombie obsessed with brains and racing.
My take: Archaeologists accidentally unearth a cursed sarcophagus underneath the Monaco pit lane, awakening the ancient spirit of a vengeful charioteer.
The curse falls on Sonny, who becomes a zombie obsessed with brains and racing.
After the debate about F1 ticket prices flared up again, allow me a bit of self-promo:
Come visit us in the European Le Mans Series.
1/5 🧵
Come visit us in the European Le Mans Series.
1/5 🧵
November 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM
After the debate about F1 ticket prices flared up again, allow me a bit of self-promo:
Come visit us in the European Le Mans Series.
1/5 🧵
Come visit us in the European Le Mans Series.
1/5 🧵
Yesterday Sky Sports announced Halo, "A new TikTok channel created specifically for female sports fans."
I'll let you judge how well that went over.
I'll let you judge how well that went over.
November 14, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Yesterday Sky Sports announced Halo, "A new TikTok channel created specifically for female sports fans."
I'll let you judge how well that went over.
I'll let you judge how well that went over.
Toto Wolff is finalising a deal to sell 5% of his stake in @MercedesAMGF1. So what does that mean for the team’s power structure? (Spoiler: nothing changes.)
1/4 🧵
1/4 🧵
November 12, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Toto Wolff is finalising a deal to sell 5% of his stake in @MercedesAMGF1. So what does that mean for the team’s power structure? (Spoiler: nothing changes.)
1/4 🧵
1/4 🧵
John Elkann says Ferrari "needs drivers who think less about themselves and more about the team."
If that's really what he believes, then maybe Ferrari should stop signing world champions and start advancing more drivers through their own ranks to the main team.
1/3 🧵
If that's really what he believes, then maybe Ferrari should stop signing world champions and start advancing more drivers through their own ranks to the main team.
1/3 🧵
November 11, 2025 at 1:14 PM
John Elkann says Ferrari "needs drivers who think less about themselves and more about the team."
If that's really what he believes, then maybe Ferrari should stop signing world champions and start advancing more drivers through their own ranks to the main team.
1/3 🧵
If that's really what he believes, then maybe Ferrari should stop signing world champions and start advancing more drivers through their own ranks to the main team.
1/3 🧵
Championship permutations in the current situation:
There are 3 races and 1 sprint left.
If Piastri wins all 3 races + the sprint, and Norris finishes 2nd in each, Norris wins the title by 2 points.
1/4 🧵
There are 3 races and 1 sprint left.
If Piastri wins all 3 races + the sprint, and Norris finishes 2nd in each, Norris wins the title by 2 points.
1/4 🧵
November 10, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Championship permutations in the current situation:
There are 3 races and 1 sprint left.
If Piastri wins all 3 races + the sprint, and Norris finishes 2nd in each, Norris wins the title by 2 points.
1/4 🧵
There are 3 races and 1 sprint left.
If Piastri wins all 3 races + the sprint, and Norris finishes 2nd in each, Norris wins the title by 2 points.
1/4 🧵
Piastri drops back further, the ball is now firmly in Norris' court.
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Brazil to take the title:
1/3 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Brazil to take the title:
1/3 🧵
November 9, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Piastri drops back further, the ball is now firmly in Norris' court.
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Brazil to take the title:
1/3 🧵
This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Brazil to take the title:
1/3 🧵
Updates submitted for the Brazilian GP:
None. Zero. Nada. Not a single team has any updated parts for this weekend 😅
None. Zero. Nada. Not a single team has any updated parts for this weekend 😅
November 7, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Updates submitted for the Brazilian GP:
None. Zero. Nada. Not a single team has any updated parts for this weekend 😅
None. Zero. Nada. Not a single team has any updated parts for this weekend 😅
Race Director's Event Notes are out for the Brazilian GP, and with it the changes to the circuit for this year's race:
1/3 🧵
1/3 🧵
November 6, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Race Director's Event Notes are out for the Brazilian GP, and with it the changes to the circuit for this year's race:
1/3 🧵
1/3 🧵