Johann-Friedrich Salzmann (Joff)
@jfsalzmann.com
Incoming PhD Student @gessunimannheim.bsky.social ¦
Research Assistant @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social ¦
Research Assistant fzi.de ⊂ @kit.edu ¦
Public Policy, Data Science @hertieschool.bsky.social ¦
https://jfsalzmann.com
Research Assistant @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social ¦
Research Assistant fzi.de ⊂ @kit.edu ¦
Public Policy, Data Science @hertieschool.bsky.social ¦
https://jfsalzmann.com
Pinned
Some thrilling personal news — I’ve been admitted to the PhD program in Political Science at the University of Mannheim @gessunimannheim.bsky.social starting this autumn! I'll be joining Thomas Gschwend's team and study short-term shifts in political opinion and electoral preferences.
Thanks Javier!! And also for your help 🙏
February 13, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Thanks Javier!! And also for your help 🙏
Danke, freue mich riesig! 🪩
February 13, 2026 at 5:34 PM
Danke, freue mich riesig! 🪩
Whoop! Tysm & looking forward 🤝
February 13, 2026 at 5:14 PM
Whoop! Tysm & looking forward 🤝
Lieben Dank:)
February 13, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Lieben Dank:)
Großes Danke und werde mich vorsehen im Südwesten! 🏊♂️🐬
February 13, 2026 at 5:12 PM
Großes Danke und werde mich vorsehen im Südwesten! 🏊♂️🐬
Ganz lieben Dank! 🙏
February 13, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Ganz lieben Dank! 🙏
🙏😊🤝 thanks!!
February 13, 2026 at 5:08 PM
🙏😊🤝 thanks!!
not to forget about: @lennartschuermann.bsky.social, @laurenzlammer.bsky.social, Rainer Kolisch, Peter Selb, Ingrid Mauerer, Wai Tak Tung, and the wahlbrief.de & fzi.de teams.
February 13, 2026 at 3:37 PM
not to forget about: @lennartschuermann.bsky.social, @laurenzlammer.bsky.social, Rainer Kolisch, Peter Selb, Ingrid Mauerer, Wai Tak Tung, and the wahlbrief.de & fzi.de teams.
Also special thanks to @clemensb.bsky.social, my partner in crime, @finnkru.bsky.social, and everyone else who endured these intense months with me!
February 13, 2026 at 3:20 PM
Also special thanks to @clemensb.bsky.social, my partner in crime, @finnkru.bsky.social, and everyone else who endured these intense months with me!
@krausewe.bsky.social @paulbuerkner.com @steffenmau.bsky.social @antvalentim.bsky.social @wrina.bsky.social @alexprs.bsky.social @lwarode.bsky.social @unddom.bsky.social, Thomas Gschwend, Harald Schoen, Michael Mäs, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Sascha Goebel, Richard Hilmer, Helmut Küchenhoff, Paul Thurner.
February 13, 2026 at 3:15 PM
@krausewe.bsky.social @paulbuerkner.com @steffenmau.bsky.social @antvalentim.bsky.social @wrina.bsky.social @alexprs.bsky.social @lwarode.bsky.social @unddom.bsky.social, Thomas Gschwend, Harald Schoen, Michael Mäs, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Sascha Goebel, Richard Hilmer, Helmut Küchenhoff, Paul Thurner.
Big thanks to everyone who advised and supported me over the past few months! @conjugateprior.org @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social @denis-cohen.bsky.social @lstoetze.bsky.social @eliaskoch.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @klaramueller.bsky.social @juliusk.bsky.social @aikowagner.bsky.social
February 13, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Big thanks to everyone who advised and supported me over the past few months! @conjugateprior.org @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social @denis-cohen.bsky.social @lstoetze.bsky.social @eliaskoch.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @klaramueller.bsky.social @juliusk.bsky.social @aikowagner.bsky.social
I’m also very excited to have been accepted to present my prototype work at @dvpw.bsky.social SekMethoden @unihannover.bsky.social & PolMeth Europe @tcddublin.bsky.social this spring.
Meanwhile, I’ve just started as a RA at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social, until my PhD program begins.
Meanwhile, I’ve just started as a RA at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social, until my PhD program begins.
February 13, 2026 at 3:15 PM
I’m also very excited to have been accepted to present my prototype work at @dvpw.bsky.social SekMethoden @unihannover.bsky.social & PolMeth Europe @tcddublin.bsky.social this spring.
Meanwhile, I’ve just started as a RA at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social, until my PhD program begins.
Meanwhile, I’ve just started as a RA at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social, until my PhD program begins.
Some thrilling personal news — I’ve been admitted to the PhD program in Political Science at the University of Mannheim @gessunimannheim.bsky.social starting this autumn! I'll be joining Thomas Gschwend's team and study short-term shifts in political opinion and electoral preferences.
February 13, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Some thrilling personal news — I’ve been admitted to the PhD program in Political Science at the University of Mannheim @gessunimannheim.bsky.social starting this autumn! I'll be joining Thomas Gschwend's team and study short-term shifts in political opinion and electoral preferences.
Reposted by Johann-Friedrich Salzmann (Joff)
VOD is up now. We ended up going for two and a half hours, talking about time series, hierarchical, and even fact or models in constrained spaces, what makes for a well-defined model comparison and what makes for a useful one, and more.
Friendly reminder that I’ll be hosting statistics office hours on Wednesday, www.patreon.com/posts/holida..., with the VOD available immediately afterwards if you can’t make it live. Amongst other topics a theme of dynamical models on constrained spaces seems to have emerged...
Holiday Surprise Office Hours Wed 12/03 at 1:30 PM EST | Michael Betancourt
Get more from Michael Betancourt on Patreon
www.patreon.com
December 3, 2025 at 9:56 PM
VOD is up now. We ended up going for two and a half hours, talking about time series, hierarchical, and even fact or models in constrained spaces, what makes for a well-defined model comparison and what makes for a useful one, and more.
Reposted by Johann-Friedrich Salzmann (Joff)
StanCon 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/13/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/13/s...
StanCon 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
October 14, 2025 at 12:37 AM
StanCon 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/13/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/13/s...
Thanks for sharing!
If you know about a research group (or an upcoming project) that would be a good fit, or if you can connect me to somebody I should talk to – please send me a DM or an email.
jfsalzmann.com
6/6
If you know about a research group (or an upcoming project) that would be a good fit, or if you can connect me to somebody I should talk to – please send me a DM or an email.
jfsalzmann.com
6/6
Johann-Friedrich Salzmann
Academic Website, Portfolio, and Contact Information
jfsalzmann.com
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Thanks for sharing!
If you know about a research group (or an upcoming project) that would be a good fit, or if you can connect me to somebody I should talk to – please send me a DM or an email.
jfsalzmann.com
6/6
If you know about a research group (or an upcoming project) that would be a good fit, or if you can connect me to somebody I should talk to – please send me a DM or an email.
jfsalzmann.com
6/6
Theses:
- Modelling Week-to-Week Voting Intention Change in Germany: A Bayesian Imputation Approach Using High-Frequency Panel Data (@hertieschool.bsky.social & fzi.de)
- A Sudden Surge in Climate Awareness: Evidence from German Political Polls in 2019 (@hertieschool.bsky.social)
5/6
- Modelling Week-to-Week Voting Intention Change in Germany: A Bayesian Imputation Approach Using High-Frequency Panel Data (@hertieschool.bsky.social & fzi.de)
- A Sudden Surge in Climate Awareness: Evidence from German Political Polls in 2019 (@hertieschool.bsky.social)
5/6
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Theses:
- Modelling Week-to-Week Voting Intention Change in Germany: A Bayesian Imputation Approach Using High-Frequency Panel Data (@hertieschool.bsky.social & fzi.de)
- A Sudden Surge in Climate Awareness: Evidence from German Political Polls in 2019 (@hertieschool.bsky.social)
5/6
- Modelling Week-to-Week Voting Intention Change in Germany: A Bayesian Imputation Approach Using High-Frequency Panel Data (@hertieschool.bsky.social & fzi.de)
- A Sudden Surge in Climate Awareness: Evidence from German Political Polls in 2019 (@hertieschool.bsky.social)
5/6
I have recently worked mostly with opinion poll panels, census, and related survey data with a focus on political party preferences, vote switching, and the dynamics of voter behaviour.
4/6
4/6
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
I have recently worked mostly with opinion poll panels, census, and related survey data with a focus on political party preferences, vote switching, and the dynamics of voter behaviour.
4/6
4/6
Research Areas of Interest:
- Electoral behaviour, public opinion dynamics
- Collective action, preferences and choice
- Social movements & networks, social influence
- Diffusion of information, norms, behaviours
- Climate change attitudes, social tipping processes
3/6
- Electoral behaviour, public opinion dynamics
- Collective action, preferences and choice
- Social movements & networks, social influence
- Diffusion of information, norms, behaviours
- Climate change attitudes, social tipping processes
3/6
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Research Areas of Interest:
- Electoral behaviour, public opinion dynamics
- Collective action, preferences and choice
- Social movements & networks, social influence
- Diffusion of information, norms, behaviours
- Climate change attitudes, social tipping processes
3/6
- Electoral behaviour, public opinion dynamics
- Collective action, preferences and choice
- Social movements & networks, social influence
- Diffusion of information, norms, behaviours
- Climate change attitudes, social tipping processes
3/6
tl;dr:
I’m a passionate Bayesian modeller fascinated by complex social phenomena and their non-linear dynamics. I combine probabilistic methods with solid social science theory to study emergent societal change through the processes and behaviours that underlie it.
2/6
I’m a passionate Bayesian modeller fascinated by complex social phenomena and their non-linear dynamics. I combine probabilistic methods with solid social science theory to study emergent societal change through the processes and behaviours that underlie it.
2/6
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
tl;dr:
I’m a passionate Bayesian modeller fascinated by complex social phenomena and their non-linear dynamics. I combine probabilistic methods with solid social science theory to study emergent societal change through the processes and behaviours that underlie it.
2/6
I’m a passionate Bayesian modeller fascinated by complex social phenomena and their non-linear dynamics. I combine probabilistic methods with solid social science theory to study emergent societal change through the processes and behaviours that underlie it.
2/6
I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
Johann-Friedrich Salzmann
Academic Website, Portfolio, and Contact Information
jfsalzmann.com
October 12, 2025 at 6:19 PM
I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics
I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.
1/6
it's actually a few more votes (5k to 10k), the numbers are percentages
February 24, 2025 at 12:39 AM
it's actually a few more votes (5k to 10k), the numbers are percentages
Reposted by Johann-Friedrich Salzmann (Joff)
Jetzt anmelden: #Demokratie im Umschlag – Deine Stimme per #Briefwahl
Am Dienstag, 11.2., 18:30-19:30 Uhr stellt euch Urheber Johann-Friedrich Salzmann die Website wahlbrief.de und seine Initiative bei einer Online-Veranstaltung vor.
👉 Sei dabei: www.mehr-demokratie.de/mehr-bewegen...
Am Dienstag, 11.2., 18:30-19:30 Uhr stellt euch Urheber Johann-Friedrich Salzmann die Website wahlbrief.de und seine Initiative bei einer Online-Veranstaltung vor.
👉 Sei dabei: www.mehr-demokratie.de/mehr-bewegen...
February 7, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Jetzt anmelden: #Demokratie im Umschlag – Deine Stimme per #Briefwahl
Am Dienstag, 11.2., 18:30-19:30 Uhr stellt euch Urheber Johann-Friedrich Salzmann die Website wahlbrief.de und seine Initiative bei einer Online-Veranstaltung vor.
👉 Sei dabei: www.mehr-demokratie.de/mehr-bewegen...
Am Dienstag, 11.2., 18:30-19:30 Uhr stellt euch Urheber Johann-Friedrich Salzmann die Website wahlbrief.de und seine Initiative bei einer Online-Veranstaltung vor.
👉 Sei dabei: www.mehr-demokratie.de/mehr-bewegen...