An outbreak of arctic air is growing increasingly likely from January 18-23 across a huge portion of the United States. This pattern should also feature several chances for winter weather, specifically along the thermal gradient in the Eastern US.

❄️☃️ If you’re in the Central or Eastern US, buckle up. Winter is about to arrive in full force with cold and several chances for snow. Here we go…

All systems go for a major pattern change across North America during the first full week of January. High latitude blocking (-EPO/NAO) will encourage impressive low level cold and regime will remain active enough for snow chances in the Eastern US, too.

I am becoming increasingly convinced that the upcoming pattern will be the most favorable we have seen for winter weather in the Northeast US in at least a few years. No guarantees, but this is a very impressive configuration - effective for both low level cold and storm chances.

Confidence is quickly increasing in a shift back to a wintry pattern across NHEM - especially in the Eastern US - as we move towards mid January. These types of high latitude blocking configurations can be effective at producing low level cold *and* bringing chances for snow.

April 26th, 2024 brought several strong tornadoes to Nebraska and Iowa. I opted to take a different approach early in the day. This storm, closer to the surface low and enhanced 3cape/vorticity, produced a tornado as the precipitation separated downshear of the remnant updraft.

🔥 A Pacific Jet extension will allow milder air to surge into North America over the next few weeks, with a reduction in high-latitude blocking and temperatures trending several degrees above normal.

After the ongoing cold snap fades, there are signs that the weather pattern will trend much warmer across N. America. A prolonged -EAMT event & resurgence of La Niña will reinvigorate the Pacific Jet and stall the MJOs progress through warm phases. This generally encourages warmth into the Lower 48.

With extremely dry weather & blustery winds continuing over the next few days, the NJ Pine Barrens remain at an "extreme" burn, damage & structure exposure risk if any wildfire were to develop. Fingers crossed.

Learn more at the NJ Wildfire Risk Explorer: t.co/PpXRU18Wec

Global ensembles are slowly clustering and strengthening the signal for a retrograding -NAO block developing after 11/20 from Greenland into the Davis Strait. This will offer a window for cooler air in the Eastern US as well as the potential for a few early-season coastal storms.

While the pattern is exceptionally warm across the United States right now, there are some hints of change in extended guidance. A retrograding ridge across the N Atlantic could aid in the development of high-latitude blocking from Greenland into Canada from 11/20 onwards.

Stunning aurora dances in the skies over Southern Minnesota. October 10th, 2024.

Later today, a cold core-esq severe weather/storm chasing setup will transpire across parts of Kansas & Nebraska. Cold temps aloft (-18° C at 500hPa), a dryslot and associated sfc heating, 0-3km CAPE values 150+ with respectable wind profiles. One or more discrete supercells w/ all hazards possible.