Jochem Vanagt
@jochemvanagt.bsky.social
PhD Candidate in Political Science | KU Leuven & University of Antwerp @m2p-antwerp.bsky.social | affective polarisation, radical-right voting & democratic support | https://jochemvanagt.github.io
Pinned
🚨 New publication out @jeppjournal.bsky.social w/ Katrin Praprotnik @luanarusso.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social
We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.
Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.
Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
November 22, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
November 18, 2025 at 9:23 PM
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
‼️ Onze onderzoeksgroep @vd-researchgroup.bsky.social verwelkomt dit academiejaar @bramwauters.bsky.social als Francqui leerstoelhouder!
📆 Het openingscollege gaat door op 2 dec om 17u30
Voor meer info en om in te schrijven voor dit *niet te missen* college, zie hier soc.kuleuven.be/afdeling-pol...
📆 Het openingscollege gaat door op 2 dec om 17u30
Voor meer info en om in te schrijven voor dit *niet te missen* college, zie hier soc.kuleuven.be/afdeling-pol...
November 12, 2025 at 1:24 PM
‼️ Onze onderzoeksgroep @vd-researchgroup.bsky.social verwelkomt dit academiejaar @bramwauters.bsky.social als Francqui leerstoelhouder!
📆 Het openingscollege gaat door op 2 dec om 17u30
Voor meer info en om in te schrijven voor dit *niet te missen* college, zie hier soc.kuleuven.be/afdeling-pol...
📆 Het openingscollege gaat door op 2 dec om 17u30
Voor meer info en om in te schrijven voor dit *niet te missen* college, zie hier soc.kuleuven.be/afdeling-pol...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Now out in Party Politics 🎉
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
October 24, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Now out in Party Politics 🎉
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing.
👉 A legitimisation effect.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
💡 Edwin Jans, @rensvliegenthart.bsky.social, @skruikemeier.bsky.social en ik schreven een opiniestuk over polarisatie in Nederland, vandaag in @parool.nl 👇📰
Opinie: ‘Zo gepolariseerd is Nederland helemaal niet – maar dit hardnekkige beeld heeft wél gevolgen’
Opinie: ‘Zo gepolariseerd is Nederland helemaal niet – maar dit hardnekkige beeld heeft wél gevolgen’
In politiek Den Haag en aan de talkshowtafels wordt veel gesproken over de ‘toegenomen polarisatie’ in Nederland, maar in werkelijkheid valt dat reuze mee, stellen vier onderzoekers van Wageningen University & Research. Het is volgens hen een hardnekkig verhaal, dat wél gevolgen kan hebben.
www.parool.nl
October 8, 2025 at 1:09 PM
💡 Edwin Jans, @rensvliegenthart.bsky.social, @skruikemeier.bsky.social en ik schreven een opiniestuk over polarisatie in Nederland, vandaag in @parool.nl 👇📰
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
🆕 Deservingness perceptions & candidate support 👥
#GroupAppeals help connect #VoterIdentity 🧩 to voting choices 🗳️ – @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Rune Stubager & Mads Thau want to know if this appeals to other social groups 📣
📖 #OA
#GroupAppeals help connect #VoterIdentity 🧩 to voting choices 🗳️ – @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Rune Stubager & Mads Thau want to know if this appeals to other social groups 📣
📖 #OA
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions
buff.ly
October 8, 2025 at 11:15 AM
🆕 Deservingness perceptions & candidate support 👥
#GroupAppeals help connect #VoterIdentity 🧩 to voting choices 🗳️ – @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Rune Stubager & Mads Thau want to know if this appeals to other social groups 📣
📖 #OA
#GroupAppeals help connect #VoterIdentity 🧩 to voting choices 🗳️ – @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Rune Stubager & Mads Thau want to know if this appeals to other social groups 📣
📖 #OA
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions
www.cambridge.org
October 6, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Politicians don’t just care how many people hold an opinion — they care how good that opinion is. In our new (open-access) article in West European Politics, based on survey data from 900+ politicians across 11 countries, we show: quality > quantity. Read more: doi.org/10.1080/0140...
October 3, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Politicians don’t just care how many people hold an opinion — they care how good that opinion is. In our new (open-access) article in West European Politics, based on survey data from 900+ politicians across 11 countries, we show: quality > quantity. Read more: doi.org/10.1080/0140...
Thank you for the kind words!
October 3, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Thank you for the kind words!
Finally: even in places with a strong cordon sanitaire, coalition signals still mattered. Elite-led boundaries against the radical right seem to erode (very) quickly. Indeed, we find evidence that among the mainstream in 🇩🇪🇧🇪 (strong cordon sanitaire), attitudes are not that different from 🇪🇸🇦🇹.
October 1, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Finally: even in places with a strong cordon sanitaire, coalition signals still mattered. Elite-led boundaries against the radical right seem to erode (very) quickly. Indeed, we find evidence that among the mainstream in 🇩🇪🇧🇪 (strong cordon sanitaire), attitudes are not that different from 🇪🇸🇦🇹.
So, potential inclusion of the radical right does not reduce polarization overall, but is a double-edged sword: while it decreases the affective gap between the mainstream right & radical right, it deepens the rift between the mainstream left and mainstream right.
October 1, 2025 at 3:26 PM
So, potential inclusion of the radical right does not reduce polarization overall, but is a double-edged sword: while it decreases the affective gap between the mainstream right & radical right, it deepens the rift between the mainstream left and mainstream right.
Key findings:
✔️ Center-right supporters become 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩 and 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the radical right.
✔️ Radical-right supporters become 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right.
❗ But: center-left supporters also seem to grow 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right!
✔️ Center-right supporters become 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩 and 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the radical right.
✔️ Radical-right supporters become 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right.
❗ But: center-left supporters also seem to grow 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right!
October 1, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Key findings:
✔️ Center-right supporters become 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩 and 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the radical right.
✔️ Radical-right supporters become 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right.
❗ But: center-left supporters also seem to grow 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right!
✔️ Center-right supporters become 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩 and 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the radical right.
✔️ Radical-right supporters become 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right.
❗ But: center-left supporters also seem to grow 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right!
All over Europe, mainstream parties face a dilemma: exclude the radical right or cooperate with them. Using pre-registered survey experiments in 🇩🇪🇧🇪🇪🇸🇦🇹 (N = 5,594), we examine the effect of coalition signals from the center right to the radical right on affective polarization and political tolerance.
October 1, 2025 at 3:26 PM
All over Europe, mainstream parties face a dilemma: exclude the radical right or cooperate with them. Using pre-registered survey experiments in 🇩🇪🇧🇪🇪🇸🇦🇹 (N = 5,594), we examine the effect of coalition signals from the center right to the radical right on affective polarization and political tolerance.
🚨 New publication out @jeppjournal.bsky.social w/ Katrin Praprotnik @luanarusso.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social
We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.
Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.
Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
October 1, 2025 at 3:26 PM
🚨 New publication out @jeppjournal.bsky.social w/ Katrin Praprotnik @luanarusso.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social
We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.
Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.
Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Happy to see that my paper w\ @jochemvanagt.bsky.social now has issue- and page-numbers.
Also check-out our post @ecprtheloop.bsky.social to learn more about why unsuccessful coalitions - like those that we see across the EU right now - do not mitigate polarization!
theloop.ecpr.eu/coalition-go...
Also check-out our post @ecprtheloop.bsky.social to learn more about why unsuccessful coalitions - like those that we see across the EU right now - do not mitigate polarization!
theloop.ecpr.eu/coalition-go...
September 23, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Happy to see that my paper w\ @jochemvanagt.bsky.social now has issue- and page-numbers.
Also check-out our post @ecprtheloop.bsky.social to learn more about why unsuccessful coalitions - like those that we see across the EU right now - do not mitigate polarization!
theloop.ecpr.eu/coalition-go...
Also check-out our post @ecprtheloop.bsky.social to learn more about why unsuccessful coalitions - like those that we see across the EU right now - do not mitigate polarization!
theloop.ecpr.eu/coalition-go...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
📘 64.4
✅ Coalition governments reduce affective #polarization when perceived as successful; ❌ when seen as failing, they increase polarization says @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social
#OA #PoliSky
🔗
✅ Coalition governments reduce affective #polarization when perceived as successful; ❌ when seen as failing, they increase polarization says @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social
#OA #PoliSky
🔗
United in success, fragmented in failure: The moderating effect of perceived government performance on affective polarization between coalition partners
JOCHEM VANAGT, MARKUS KOLLBERG
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 23, 2025 at 11:02 AM
📘 64.4
✅ Coalition governments reduce affective #polarization when perceived as successful; ❌ when seen as failing, they increase polarization says @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social
#OA #PoliSky
🔗
✅ Coalition governments reduce affective #polarization when perceived as successful; ❌ when seen as failing, they increase polarization says @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social
#OA #PoliSky
🔗
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
September 16, 2025 at 10:25 AM
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
What do citizens imagine their political opponents to be like? Polarization is real, but it also lives in our heads, fueled by stereotypes. We asked people in 🇧🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇵🇱 to describe opponents in their own words.
With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇
With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇
OSF
doi.org
September 10, 2025 at 12:02 PM
What do citizens imagine their political opponents to be like? Polarization is real, but it also lives in our heads, fueled by stereotypes. We asked people in 🇧🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇵🇱 to describe opponents in their own words.
With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇
With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered!
In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
September 3, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered!
In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
We have a new paper out in @jepsjournal.bsky.social, with @laiabalcells.bsky.social, @sergisme.bsky.social and Ethan vanderWilden.
We test a number of experimental treatments aimed at strengthening social norms against radical-right support, but find mostly null results.
1/3
We test a number of experimental treatments aimed at strengthening social norms against radical-right support, but find mostly null results.
1/3
#OpenAccess from @jepsjournal.bsky.social -
Re-Stigmatizing the Radical Right: A One-Way Street? - cup.org/45s4Huh
- @laiabalcells.bsky.social, @sergisme.bsky.social, @valentimvicente.bsky.social & Ethan vanderWilden
#FirstView
Re-Stigmatizing the Radical Right: A One-Way Street? - cup.org/45s4Huh
- @laiabalcells.bsky.social, @sergisme.bsky.social, @valentimvicente.bsky.social & Ethan vanderWilden
#FirstView
July 31, 2025 at 2:56 PM
We have a new paper out in @jepsjournal.bsky.social, with @laiabalcells.bsky.social, @sergisme.bsky.social and Ethan vanderWilden.
We test a number of experimental treatments aimed at strengthening social norms against radical-right support, but find mostly null results.
1/3
We test a number of experimental treatments aimed at strengthening social norms against radical-right support, but find mostly null results.
1/3
Reposted by Jochem Vanagt
Online first: "Defending democracy: investigating the efficacy of elite democratic defence in a competitive information environment" by @jmvanlit.bsky.social & @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
#Academicsky #Polisky
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
#Academicsky #Polisky
July 9, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Online first: "Defending democracy: investigating the efficacy of elite democratic defence in a competitive information environment" by @jmvanlit.bsky.social & @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
#Academicsky #Polisky
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
#Academicsky #Polisky