Joe Brusuelas
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
Chief Economist RSM. Board of advisors UCLA Anderson School Economic Forecast. Member Wall Street Journal forecast board. Named 2023 best interest rate forecaster by Bloomberg. Dodgers fan
Good morning. My 2026 US Economic Outlook. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/rsms-u-s-out...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/rsms-u-s-out...
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 25, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Good morning. My 2026 US Economic Outlook. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/rsms-u-s-out...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/rsms-u-s-out...
My thoughts on the US jobs market, inflation & the path of Fed policy via @CNNConnect the World - Joe Brusuelas/ CTW. #Econ #EconSky
video.snapstream.net/Play/3XYzC7g...
video.snapstream.net/Play/3XYzC7g...
Connect the World - Joe Brusuelas/ CTW
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November 21, 2025 at 3:23 PM
My thoughts on the US jobs market, inflation & the path of Fed policy via @CNNConnect the World - Joe Brusuelas/ CTW. #Econ #EconSky
video.snapstream.net/Play/3XYzC7g...
video.snapstream.net/Play/3XYzC7g...
Please join me at 9:30 AM ET/2:30PM BT & 6:30PM in Dubai on @cnni where I will discuss the day in the global economy with @BeckyCNN
November 21, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Please join me at 9:30 AM ET/2:30PM BT & 6:30PM in Dubai on @cnni where I will discuss the day in the global economy with @BeckyCNN
A look at US 20-24 youth unemployment across the past four economic expansions. Take a look. One might be surprised with what one finds. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Younger workers are doing just fine overall
The current unemployment rate of workers who are 20 to 24 years old stands at 8.6%, below the rate of recent economic expansions.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:59 AM
A look at US 20-24 youth unemployment across the past four economic expansions. Take a look. One might be surprised with what one finds. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
My thoughts on the solid US September Jobs Report via @WSJ: U.S. job growth defied expectations in September. #Econ #EconSky #Economists
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Hiring Defied Expectations in September, With 119,000 New Jobs
Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown.
www.wsj.com
November 20, 2025 at 2:56 PM
My thoughts on the solid US September Jobs Report via @WSJ: U.S. job growth defied expectations in September. #Econ #EconSky #Economists
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
US September Jobs Report Takeaway: Modest gains in employment will support the same in overall economic activity, which implies that a December rate cut is neither warranted nor necessary. #Econ #EconSky #Economists
November 20, 2025 at 2:51 PM
US September Jobs Report Takeaway: Modest gains in employment will support the same in overall economic activity, which implies that a December rate cut is neither warranted nor necessary. #Econ #EconSky #Economists
Worthy of your time: The Economics of Income Mobility by Roland Fryer #Econ #EconSky
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
Opinion | The Economics of Income Mobility
I believe in the American dream, but the data show that some people have an advantage in realizing it.
www.wsj.com
November 19, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Worthy of your time: The Economics of Income Mobility by Roland Fryer #Econ #EconSky
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
Investors reducing rate cut probabilities. Note December rate cut now priced in at only a 28.1% probability down from 70% not that long ago. If one likes overnight index swaps rather than futures its 35.7%.
November 19, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Investors reducing rate cut probabilities. Note December rate cut now priced in at only a 28.1% probability down from 70% not that long ago. If one likes overnight index swaps rather than futures its 35.7%.
BLS has cancelled the October Jobs Report. It will be rolled into the November Report that will be published in December. No word on if that’s going to be Friday December 5 or not.
November 19, 2025 at 5:42 PM
BLS has cancelled the October Jobs Report. It will be rolled into the November Report that will be published in December. No word on if that’s going to be Friday December 5 or not.
My discussion via @YahooFinance @joshuahlipton on my expectations ahead of the September US Jobs Report. #Econ #EconSky
finance.yahoo.com/video/one-ec...
finance.yahoo.com/video/one-ec...
What one economist is expecting from the September jobs report
The September jobs report will be released on Thursday after being delayed for more than six weeks due to the government shutdown. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas shares what he expects to see. To w...
finance.yahoo.com
November 19, 2025 at 4:00 PM
My discussion via @YahooFinance @joshuahlipton on my expectations ahead of the September US Jobs Report. #Econ #EconSky
finance.yahoo.com/video/one-ec...
finance.yahoo.com/video/one-ec...
As investors get ready to digest a large quantity of labor market data over the final six weeks of the year looking at the status of the prime aged workforce may be the he best metric on the health of the economy. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: The resilient U.S. prime-age workforce
The U.S. labor force participation rate among prime-age workers 25 to 54 stood at 83.7% in August—the most recent data available—just below the cyclical peak of 83.9% of August last year.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 19, 2025 at 2:06 PM
As investors get ready to digest a large quantity of labor market data over the final six weeks of the year looking at the status of the prime aged workforce may be the he best metric on the health of the economy. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Please join me on @YahooFinance at 3:30 PM ET where we will discuss the day on finance & economics. @joshuahlipton
November 18, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Please join me on @YahooFinance at 3:30 PM ET where we will discuss the day on finance & economics. @joshuahlipton
Good morning. I expect an increase in the delayed September US Jobs Report of 50K. In addition I anticipate upward revisions to the July & August data that will push the total change in employment to near 100K. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: U.S. September employment report preview
We expect an increase of 50,000 jobs in the delayed September U.S. jobs report when it is released on Thursday.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Good morning. I expect an increase in the delayed September US Jobs Report of 50K. In addition I anticipate upward revisions to the July & August data that will push the total change in employment to near 100K. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Good morning. Rolling back tariffs on select foodstuffs to address the affordability crisis is a good start.
Next step: restore the April 2 status quo ante on all imports via the North American food supply chain subject to higher trade taxes. #Econ #EconSky
www.wsj.com/economy/here...
Next step: restore the April 2 status quo ante on all imports via the North American food supply chain subject to higher trade taxes. #Econ #EconSky
www.wsj.com/economy/here...
Here’s How Much Coffee, Beef and Banana Prices Have Gone Up
The Trump administration moved to lower tariffs in an attempt to make these household staples more affordable.
www.wsj.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Good morning. Rolling back tariffs on select foodstuffs to address the affordability crisis is a good start.
Next step: restore the April 2 status quo ante on all imports via the North American food supply chain subject to higher trade taxes. #Econ #EconSky
www.wsj.com/economy/here...
Next step: restore the April 2 status quo ante on all imports via the North American food supply chain subject to higher trade taxes. #Econ #EconSky
www.wsj.com/economy/here...
Reposted by Joe Brusuelas
Because of gov’t borrowing & hyperscaler demand for “increasingly spare capital, .. there is little to suggest that mortgage rates will move lower next year .. absent a near-term recession or an unexpected re-entry of the Federal Reserve into” the MBS market.
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
November 14, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Because of gov’t borrowing & hyperscaler demand for “increasingly spare capital, .. there is little to suggest that mortgage rates will move lower next year .. absent a near-term recession or an unexpected re-entry of the Federal Reserve into” the MBS market.
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
“Wai qiang, zhoung gan” which roughly translates as “outwardly strong inwardly brittle.” It’s a good description of the Chinese economy as it proceeds through a debt & deleveraging crisis. #Econ #Econsky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/o... via @NYTOpinion
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/o... via @NYTOpinion
Opinion | China Looks Strong. Life Here Tells a Different Story.
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:43 PM
“Wai qiang, zhoung gan” which roughly translates as “outwardly strong inwardly brittle.” It’s a good description of the Chinese economy as it proceeds through a debt & deleveraging crisis. #Econ #Econsky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/o... via @NYTOpinion
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/o... via @NYTOpinion
There will be no estimate of the unemployment rate for October.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
November 13, 2025 at 3:06 PM
There will be no estimate of the unemployment rate for October.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
The cost of the US government shutdown will result in a 1.5% drag on Q4 GDP. And there’s a chance we get to do this all over again in January 2026. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: All I got from the crummy government shutdown is a 1.5% drag on GDP
Dislocation around government paychecks, SNAP payments and the permanent loss of income by government contractors over the past six weeks will take a number of weeks to unwind.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:55 PM
The cost of the US government shutdown will result in a 1.5% drag on Q4 GDP. And there’s a chance we get to do this all over again in January 2026. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
White House says the October CPI & Jobs data will not be released.
A full accounting of jobs, inflation, income, spending & industrial production data for both the October & November economic periods is in the interest of the public, policymakers & investors. #Econ #EconSky
A full accounting of jobs, inflation, income, spending & industrial production data for both the October & November economic periods is in the interest of the public, policymakers & investors. #Econ #EconSky
November 12, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Good morning. Due to the government shutdown the Fed will be making its December policy decision with insufficient information. That tends to suggest a prudent pause is in order given rising inflation. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Market Minute: Cloudy with a chance of a December pause at the Fed
Inflation is likely to rise faster than the Fed’s 2% target with risk of moving higher as the strong fiscal impulse that will hit the economy next year bolsters growth prospects.
realeconomy.rsmus.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Good morning. Due to the government shutdown the Fed will be making its December policy decision with insufficient information. That tends to suggest a prudent pause is in order given rising inflation. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...