John Quiggin
banner
johnquiggin.bsky.social
John Quiggin
@johnquiggin.bsky.social

Economist & blogger @ http://johnquiggin.com, http://crookedtimber.org. http://johnquiggin.substack.com/?utm http://mstdn.social/@johnquiggin
I repost my content, using the #repost hashtag. You can go to settings/filters to avoid seeing the same post. .. more

John Quiggin is an Australian economist, a professor at the University of Queensland. He was formerly an Australian Research Council Laureate Fellow and Federation Fellow and a member of the board of the Climate Change Authority of the Australian Government. .. more

Economics 65%
Business 9%

So, #Musk has abandoned his long promised Mars mission, apparently because he discovered that Mars is a long way nearly all the time. These surprising problems crop up when you are at the scientific frontier.

Now he's pitching cities on the moon, and his fans love it. I was hoping for world peace.

Government buying votes of former students, while disastrous Job Ready Graduates fees swell HECS debts for current students. Jason Clare is worst education minister ever.
The government’s HECS Bill swings and misses on student debt
How the Albanese government continues to shirk action on the worst remnant of the Morrison–era changes to higher education.
www.thenewdaily.com.au

TUSNACO: The US Navy Always Chickens Out
TUSNACO
The US Navy Always Chickens Out
johnquigginblog.substack.com

The protestors are almost always people objecting to infrastructure on other people's land for which those people have been paid (making them happy). Often from km away or even interstate.

The opposite of the pattern for solar PV, where long-term future projections have regularly been surpassed within a few years of being issued.

The IEA finally giving up on carbon capture and storage. 2025 projection for 2050 well below 2021 projection for 2035

Only inertia keeping projected share of emissions reductions (now down to 5 per cent) above rounding error
Minimal role for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 | IEEFA
The IEA’s minimal role for CCUS in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 Scenario reflects a multi-year downgrading of the technology, with renewables, electrification, fuel switching, and energy efficiency projected to contribute over 82% of the emissions reductions needed to achieve net zero.
ieefa.org

Correct lesson for Labor is that there is point pandering to these people. Treat them the way they would like to treat inner city elites

The five-day ~40 hour week seems eternal, but only dates back to about 1950. And until 1980s, everyone assumed working hours would keep on declining. @pluralistic
pluralistic.net/2026...

Russia has made repeated attempts to kill Zelensky, & claimed attempts on Putin. So, not much weight on sovereign immunity these days.
Suggestion of arresting Herzog is not made with thought that it will happen, merely that he deserves it, along with all senior figures in Israeli state (and Hamas)

Sovereign immunity pretty much a dead duck now

Reposted by Huw Price

As Israel’s President visits Australia, genocide continues in Gaza and serious legal concerns remain unanswered. We’re calling on the government to uphold Australian and international law: Detain and investigate Isaac Herzog. ✍️ Add your name getup.to/YmaMqWFlCKVEC4
✍️SIGN: Detain and investigate Herzog
As Israel’s President visits Australia, genocide continues in Gaza and serious legal concerns remain unanswered. We’re calling on the government to uphold Australian and international law: Detain and ...
getup.to

Typo here - Howard introduced Work Choices and Rudd killed it. Hope you are right on Herzog. Photo of him blessing a bomb is pretty damning.

I've been proven wrong almost instantly. Head of Paul Weiss law firm, one of the first to capitulate to Trump, is gone. Will there be more?
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
Brad Karp Resigns as Paul Weiss Chairman Amid Epstein Fallout
www.nytimes.com

The Epstein files are wreaking havoc for the UK ruling elite, while no one in the US has paid a significant price (Even Maxwell is a Brit). Given that Americans voted for a (civilly) convicted rapist and Epstein pal as president, that's no surprise, I guess #uspol
Labour MPs say Starmer’s days as PM are numbered amid fury over Mandelson
MPs say release of papers on Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador could trigger leadership challenge
www.theguardian.com

They might think that, but Russian experience with the same strategy not encouraging.

I didn't rule out something crazy, just observed that there is nothing to suggest it right now.

False Alarm: Nine's Red Alert on China was never credible
False Alarm
Nine's Red Alert on China was never credible
johnquigginblog.substack.com

Liberals polling in single digits: As the right splinters, it's a real possibility #auspol
Liberals polling in single digits
As the right splinters, it's a real possibility
johnquigginblog.substack.com

I'm struck by the OTT reactions to the recent inflation statistics and the RBA rate increase. We are talking about fractions of a percentage point change in numbers that are historically very low. 0.25 per cent matters if you have a $m mortgage debt, but still, Australia has much bigger problems.

Apparently, #Labor will do some big important "intergenerational" stuff this year, but they are not telling us what. Let me make a wild guess: it won't include changes to capital gains tax. What we really need is an inheritance tax, but you can tell me I'm dreamin' #auspol
While the Coalition tears itself apart, Labor prepares for a big 2026
If Labor is to step up its ambitions, this is the most likely time. And the opposition’s self-destruction clears the decks for reform.
www.smh.com.au

Susan Collins has always been "concerned" about having to vote for bad things. But if you'd told me 10 years ago that she would soon be expressing those concerns about public executions of political dissidents, I wouldn't have believed you.
The DHS crisis is squeezing Susan Collins
The Maine Republican is under immense pressure as a huge funding package hangs by a thread and federal agents swarm her state.
www.politico.com

Anything could happen. One Nation and Nats could merge, for example.

Four-day week: is change on the way? - Government News
Four-day week: is change on the way? - Government News
If, later this month, City of Launceston’s 600-or-so staff vote in favour of a four-day week, it will be the first government in Australia to adopt the model.
www.governmentnews.com.au

The big differences won't be in rents but in things like getting repairs done. Some individual landlords very good on this, others not so much.

Conversely, Nats may run against them in regional and outer metro seats they currently hold under no-compete agreements.

On average, better to rent from a big corporation than from an individual landlord, IMO.
Rise and rise of the living sectors • Ray White
Institutional Build-to-Rent capital reshaping Australian rental market with stable yields and long-term leases. Occupancy rates 95-98% drawing offshore investors. Sector remains small but represents significant structural shift ahead.
www.raywhite.com

Who is it this time?

That's very helpful, thanks, and I was pretty close to the mark. Libs barely in double digits and the rest below.

Presumably national opinion polls will soon have to start asking voters about Liberals, Nationals and Queensland LNP, rather than the now-defunct federal LNP. Potentially all three in single digits. #auspol