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Jonas Nahm

@jonasnahm.com

18K followers 1K following 1.4K posts

Associate Professor at Hopkins/SAIS. Former White House industrial strategy economist. Industrial policy, trade, climate, economic security. Views my own. DC | SF. 🏳️‍🌈

Economics 40%

Political science 32%

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Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 1d

Germany apparently not so sure it wants to save its auto sector by making it competitive.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

German auto summit tomorrow.

The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today

Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.

But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

1/

Reposted by Andréas Nilsson, Jonas Nahm

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

German auto summit tomorrow.

The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today

Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.

But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

1/

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 8d

Leave it to the Times to run this story on the LAST day the tax credits for EVs are available. This would have been helpful information for Americans three months ago, or, even better, before the 2024 election!

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

See How E.V. Road Trips Went From Impossible to Easy

There are a lot more fast chargers than there used to be. Look up what that could mean for a route near you.

www.nytimes.com

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

12/ The proposal tests whether direct government construction and leasing can overcome business hesitation about federal partnerships. Early indications suggest companies prefer regulatory certainty to capital assistance.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

11/ The scale is ambitious: Lutnick promises "factories built in America at a scale that you have never seen before." But success depends on companies actually wanting to participate in government-backed leasing arrangements rather than traditional ownership models.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

10/ Japan's preference to avoid legally-binding agreements contrasts with US demands for written commitments. This tension over formalization reflects broader challenges in converting bilateral promises into operational frameworks.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

9/ The urgency is notable given economic context. Manufacturing employment fell 38,000 jobs through August even as the overall economy added jobs. The administration needs tangible results to validate its industrial policy approach.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

8/ Implementation also faces practical challenges. There are already disputes between US and Japanese officials about the fund's exact structure. Japan's negotiator outlined different expectations than Trump's interpretation of the $550 billion commitment.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

7/ Republican lawmakers show divided views. While some propose funneling money to agricultural assistance, others express skepticism. Senator Hagerty notes concerns about "government playing a bigger role" in manufacturing despite strategic vulnerabilities.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

6/ Some companies remain "hesitant to turn to the Trump administration for financial assistance, concerned about owing money to the government for years to come." This suggests wariness about long-term government entanglements even with favorable terms.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

5/ However, early signals suggest mixed business reception. When CEOs met Trump in the Oval Office, none requested government money. Instead, they emphasized regulatory streamlining as the key to encouraging growth, according to an attendee.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

4/ The proposal represents a new model: government constructs facilities then leases them to companies, rather than companies building their own. This gives the administration direct control over which industries receive assistance and where facilities are located.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

3/ Under the US-Japan MOU, a committee chaired by Lutnick recommends projects to Trump, who has "wide latitude" to direct investments. After 50-50 cost splits, the US retains 90% of profits. Trump can impose tariffs if Japan declines to fund selected projects.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

2/ The plan would grant preferential treatment including expedited regulatory review and access to federal land and water. Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick have discussed facilities for gas turbines, generic pharmaceuticals, nuclear power plants, and pipelines.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 19d

1/ The administration is exploring using Japan's $550 billion fund to directly spur US factory construction through government-backed facilities that companies could lease. This marks a significant expansion of federal involvement in manufacturing.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...?

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 22d

Happy Samin day to those who celebrate :)

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 22d

Super helpful, thank you!

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 22d

But legally they have to commit to either renewal or not by July, no? On what basis could they push by a year?

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

18/18 Even after current bilateral negotiations on reciprocal tariffs conclude, trade uncertainty will extend into 2026 as the formal review approaches.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

17/18 The most probable outcome remains extension with modifications to address current disputes. However, the review creates opportunity for substantial changes if countries push for major revisions.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

16/18 Market reactions are visible in currency movements and investment planning. The peso and Canadian dollar face pressure during trade uncertainty periods as companies prepare contingency plans.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

15/18 Economic interdependence creates both stability and vulnerability. The integrated North American economy generates over $1.3 trillion in annual trade, but disruption would have widespread consequences.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

14/18 Business uncertainty will likely increase as the review approaches. Companies have invested heavily in cross-border supply chains and potential changes would require significant operational adjustments.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

13/18 Unlike Mexico's diplomatic approach, Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs and is negotiating defense commitments including 2% of GDP military spending by 2026 and 5% by 2035 to secure trade concessions.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

12/18 Mexico's energy sector remains a flash point. The US and Canada want assurances that state-owned enterprises PEMEX and CFE don't receive preferential treatment over foreign investors in electricity and oil markets.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

11/18 The US will likely demand minimum thresholds for American content within broader regional targets, while pushing for expanded use of rapid-response labor mechanisms beyond manufacturing sectors.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

10/18 Key issues that will dominate the review include labor enforcement in Mexico, automotive rules of origin requiring higher regional content, Mexico's nationalist energy policies, and critical minerals cooperation.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

9/18 Six possible outcomes await the review process ranging from straightforward renewal to complete withdrawal. A "painful extension" where Mexico and Canada make major concessions is considered most likely.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

8/18 Chinese investment in Mexico is a major unspoken concern. The US fears China could use Mexico as a backdoor to circumvent tariffs, highlighting the need for coordinated investment screening across North America.

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 23d

7/18 The two countries have found ways to compartmentalize security cooperation from trade disputes. Canada has taken a sharper tone, with PM Carney declaring the old relationship "over" and seeking a new security bargain.