Author | Lightnews

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 13h

ps. on the wider impact...

1⃣ 👍 - relief rally?

2⃣ OK - already priced in?

3⃣💀- huge tail risks, could land OK if seen as fixing the problems once and for all, and esp if the markets like it (much lower interest rates), but could also tip the economy over the edge...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 13h

FWIW, here's the latest iteration of my 'Budget Scorecard', with three scenarios for the size of the hole to be filled (£17bn, £34bn and £50bn) and a set of tax options for each.

Obviously only 'indicative', and there are many other permutations... 🤔

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 14h

Less competition and higher margins?

I believe Walmart is much more profitable!

ps. this (on an Australian study with some international comparisons) is quite interesting...

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Profit margins at Coles and Woolworths were in line with major overseas supermarkets in 2008. Now they’re the highest in the world

Australia’s grocery duopoly has leapfrogged peers when it comes to profitability – these charts prove it

www.theguardian.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 15h

Have you not read my blog...? 😉

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 22h

FYI, I've fleshed out some recent comments on Tesco bashing into a blog... 🤔✍️

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/its-time-t...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 5d

FWIW, here's my first stab at a 'Budget scorecard', with the amounts that Rachel Reeves might have to raise in tax in three scenarios, and some ideas about how she might do it... 🤔

Obviously just indicative, and there are many other permutations! I'll refine over time...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 6d

FYI, these reports (i.e. leaks) of a 0.3% productivity downgrade are (presumably) coming from Treasury/No10, not the OBR, so may well be some 'expectations management' here.

They are also 'pre-measures', so still time for the OBR to score more reforms, allowing Reeves to claim a small 'win'...

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 7d

pps. in any event, a £20bn productivity downgrade, another £5-£10bn for higher spending esp on welfare and interest, plus £5-£10bn to increase the fiscal headroom, means we could be looking at another Budget package of as much as £40bn - the same as last year... 🙄

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 7d

Ps. obviously we don't yet know the OBR's precise reasoning (and it's still possible that some measures in the Budget could prompt a rethink).

But the most likely explanation is simply that the OBR has decided to follow others and assume that more of the post-2008 slowdown is permanent.

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 7d

"Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade"

IMHO, Reeves is unlucky that the OBR has decided to make this (overdue?) change now, but it's also telling that it doesn't think the prospects have improved under Labour... 🤔

www.ft.com/content/0e2d...

Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade

Bigger than expected reduction in OBR forecast deals blow to chancellor ahead of Budget

www.ft.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 9d

Chart of the Day 🤓

Until recently the UK National Living Wage was set at a relatively realistic level, minimising the costs especially in terms of lost jobs.

But we're now catching up with France where the unemployment rate is 7.5%, or 18.1% for young people... 🤔

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 9d

FYI, I've blogged on Rachel Reeves' plan to make it even more expensive to employ young people.... 🤔

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/the-govern...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

ICYMI, under Labour, it takes £10 million of investment just to create one job... 😉

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

Every YouGov poll ever?

When asked whether they would like loads of free stuff paid for by taxes on other people, 75% of Brits and 96% of Green voters said "yes"... 😉

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

2⃣ "confidence edges higher"

(but mainly because of fading fears about US tariffs, and still much weaker than before last Autumn's Budget)

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

A bit more on this morning's UK PMI 🤔

(TL;DR - labour market and business confidence weak but not collapsing, at least not yet...)

1⃣ "jobs cut for 13th straight month, but rate of decline eases"

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

True, but the fact that consumer confidence is relatively stable is interesting in itself, given all the gloomy headlines!

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

ps. detail mildly encouraging too: cost inflation easing, job losses moderating, and expectations for next 12 months improving.

source and more: pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

pmi.spglobal.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 10d

Some more reassuring news...

The flash UK PMI Composite Output Index picked up to 51.1 in October (Sep: 50.1), helped by a rebound in manufacturing (restarts at JLR?).

However, still consistent with quarterly GDP growth of only 0.2% - far too weak to fix the public finances.

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 11d

2⃣ GfK measure of consumer confidence rallied to -17 in October, from -19.

Budget worries may explain the deterioration in sentiment on the outlook for personal finances, but this key component was still relatively strong and higher than a year ago.

nielseniq.com/global/en/ne...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 11d

Two pieces of better-than-expected news on UK consumer spending 🤔

1⃣ retail sales rose by 0.5% in September and 0.9% in Q3 as a whole

Hard to square with other survey evidence, but growth was broad based and consistent with the pick up in real wages...

www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 12d

Ps. summary of report here...

(The TBI doesn't go as far as saying Net Zero 2050 should be scrapped, but instead outlines a saner path to get there) (2/2)

institute.global/insights/cli...

Cheaper Power 2030, Net Zero 2050: Resetting the UK’s Electricity Strategy for the Future

institute.global

Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 12d

Another damning verdict on Miliband's mad plans...

"If the transition continues in a way that raises costs, weakens reliability and undermines growth, it will fail both politically and practically,” the report said... (1/2)

www.politico.eu/article/tony...

Tony Blair says UK should drop clean power targets

It’s the second time the former prime minister has weighed in on the government’s energy strategy.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Julian Jessop

Dr Lindsey A. Davidson @hebraicaveritas.bsky.social · 14d

Open letter in support of Prof Michael Ben-Gad, City University London, targeted and harassed by “students” in a protest group, for no other reason than pure anti-semitism - for being an Israeli Jew. docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Standing against targeted harassment of Professor Michael Ben-Gad

21 October 2025 We, the undersigned, are deeply concerned by a targeted harassment campaign against Michael Ben-Gad, Professor of Economics at City St George’s, University of London, led by a group ca...

docs.google.com

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Julian Jessop @julianhjessop.bsky.social · 13d

ICYMI, here's a longer take (for the IEA) on this morning's news on the public finances... 👇

iea.org.uk/media/uk-pub...

UK public finances continue to deteriorate

Responding to the latest borrowing figures, Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs said: “The latest news … Continue reading "UK public finances continue to deteriorate"

iea.org.uk