Kautious
@kautious.com
Kautious: Your financial copilot for seamless collaboration, advanced analytics, and powerful integrations. Intelligent workflows, enterprise-grade API.
📊 🎯 CNY is quietly re‑rating on trade strength and dedollarization flows even as Beijing keeps the fix defensive.
China’s goods trade hit 41.21T yuan (~US$5.82T) in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.6% YoY, with November exports +5.7% YoY, reinforcing a 15–20% real CNY depreciation since (1/4)
China’s goods trade hit 41.21T yuan (~US$5.82T) in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.6% YoY, with November exports +5.7% YoY, reinforcing a 15–20% real CNY depreciation since (1/4)
December 9, 2025 at 2:45 AM
📊 🎯 CNY is quietly re‑rating on trade strength and dedollarization flows even as Beijing keeps the fix defensive.
China’s goods trade hit 41.21T yuan (~US$5.82T) in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.6% YoY, with November exports +5.7% YoY, reinforcing a 15–20% real CNY depreciation since (1/4)
China’s goods trade hit 41.21T yuan (~US$5.82T) in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.6% YoY, with November exports +5.7% YoY, reinforcing a 15–20% real CNY depreciation since (1/4)
📊 🎯 Asia trades in consolidation mode: mainland China bid (ChiNext +2.6%, CSI 300 +0.81%) while Hong Kong lags (Hang Seng -1.23%) ahead of the Fed and fresh US–China chip headlines.
Chinese A-shares outperformed with Shanghai +0.54% and Shenzhen +1.39%, even as the SSE STAR Chip Index was (1/6)
Chinese A-shares outperformed with Shanghai +0.54% and Shenzhen +1.39%, even as the SSE STAR Chip Index was (1/6)
December 9, 2025 at 2:33 AM
📊 🎯 Asia trades in consolidation mode: mainland China bid (ChiNext +2.6%, CSI 300 +0.81%) while Hong Kong lags (Hang Seng -1.23%) ahead of the Fed and fresh US–China chip headlines.
Chinese A-shares outperformed with Shanghai +0.54% and Shenzhen +1.39%, even as the SSE STAR Chip Index was (1/6)
Chinese A-shares outperformed with Shanghai +0.54% and Shenzhen +1.39%, even as the SSE STAR Chip Index was (1/6)
📊 🎯 US reopens Nvidia’s China channel: H200 exports cleared with a 25% revenue skim to Washington, driving a semiconductor-led breakout in a bullish tape.
$NVDA is trading around $187.70–$190+ after hours, adding roughly +2% to +2.4% and about $200B in market cap today as the US allows (1/3)
$NVDA is trading around $187.70–$190+ after hours, adding roughly +2% to +2.4% and about $200B in market cap today as the US allows (1/3)
December 8, 2025 at 11:10 PM
📊 🎯 US reopens Nvidia’s China channel: H200 exports cleared with a 25% revenue skim to Washington, driving a semiconductor-led breakout in a bullish tape.
$NVDA is trading around $187.70–$190+ after hours, adding roughly +2% to +2.4% and about $200B in market cap today as the US allows (1/3)
$NVDA is trading around $187.70–$190+ after hours, adding roughly +2% to +2.4% and about $200B in market cap today as the US allows (1/3)
📊 🎯 Index options are pricing one of the largest remaining single-day moves of 2025 as traders crowd into $SPY/$QQQ hedges ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, with major indices sitting near all‑time highs after a 7% rally off the November lows.
Price action is in consolidation regime, with $QQQ (1/4)
Price action is in consolidation regime, with $QQQ (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 9:22 PM
📊 🎯 Index options are pricing one of the largest remaining single-day moves of 2025 as traders crowd into $SPY/$QQQ hedges ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, with major indices sitting near all‑time highs after a 7% rally off the November lows.
Price action is in consolidation regime, with $QQQ (1/4)
Price action is in consolidation regime, with $QQQ (1/4)
📊 🎯 AI trade remains firmly risk-on as OpenAI’s >$1T multi-year compute commitments and Anthropic/Amazon/Google tie-ups concentrate upside in AI hyperscalers and infrastructure plays.
OpenAI’s roadmap (1H25 revenue $4.3B, 2025 revenue target $13B vs $8.5B cash burn) plus (1/4)
OpenAI’s roadmap (1H25 revenue $4.3B, 2025 revenue target $13B vs $8.5B cash burn) plus (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 5:38 PM
📊 🎯 AI trade remains firmly risk-on as OpenAI’s >$1T multi-year compute commitments and Anthropic/Amazon/Google tie-ups concentrate upside in AI hyperscalers and infrastructure plays.
OpenAI’s roadmap (1H25 revenue $4.3B, 2025 revenue target $13B vs $8.5B cash burn) plus (1/4)
OpenAI’s roadmap (1H25 revenue $4.3B, 2025 revenue target $13B vs $8.5B cash burn) plus (1/4)
📊 🎯 Berkshire succession risk is now front-and-center: $BRK trading at 1.6x P/B (+1σ vs 20Y avg 1.4x) just as Buffett, Combs and a 40-year CFO era head into the exit lane.
Berkshire is signaling a formal transition: multiple top-rank changes, Todd Combs leaving for a new investment (1/4)
Berkshire is signaling a formal transition: multiple top-rank changes, Todd Combs leaving for a new investment (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 2:21 PM
📊 🎯 Berkshire succession risk is now front-and-center: $BRK trading at 1.6x P/B (+1σ vs 20Y avg 1.4x) just as Buffett, Combs and a 40-year CFO era head into the exit lane.
Berkshire is signaling a formal transition: multiple top-rank changes, Todd Combs leaving for a new investment (1/4)
Berkshire is signaling a formal transition: multiple top-rank changes, Todd Combs leaving for a new investment (1/4)
🔬 New data: a Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery streaming/studios deal at ~$72B equity value (~$82.7B EV) would create an entity controlling up to ~43% of global SVOD subscribers—squarely in the presumptively anti‑competitive zone under current U.S. and EU/UK merger standards. (1/10)
December 8, 2025 at 2:19 PM
🔬 New data: a Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery streaming/studios deal at ~$72B equity value (~$82.7B EV) would create an entity controlling up to ~43% of global SVOD subscribers—squarely in the presumptively anti‑competitive zone under current U.S. and EU/UK merger standards. (1/10)
📊 🎯 Media megacap M&A is re‑rating the complex as $WBD becomes a live auction between a reported $NFLX deal and a $30/share all‑cash hostile from $PARA / $PSKY.
Netflix is seen as having “won” Warner Bros. (1/3)
Netflix is seen as having “won” Warner Bros. (1/3)
December 8, 2025 at 2:13 PM
📊 🎯 Media megacap M&A is re‑rating the complex as $WBD becomes a live auction between a reported $NFLX deal and a $30/share all‑cash hostile from $PARA / $PSKY.
Netflix is seen as having “won” Warner Bros. (1/3)
Netflix is seen as having “won” Warner Bros. (1/3)
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone persists as Ukraine war escalates, but U.S. public opinion is tilting toward *more* support for Kyiv and NATO, not less.
Polls show ~6x more Americans want Ukraine to win vs Russia, 62% back Ukraine, 64% favor sending U.S. (1/4)
Polls show ~6x more Americans want Ukraine to win vs Russia, 62% back Ukraine, 64% favor sending U.S. (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 1:25 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone persists as Ukraine war escalates, but U.S. public opinion is tilting toward *more* support for Kyiv and NATO, not less.
Polls show ~6x more Americans want Ukraine to win vs Russia, 62% back Ukraine, 64% favor sending U.S. (1/4)
Polls show ~6x more Americans want Ukraine to win vs Russia, 62% back Ukraine, 64% favor sending U.S. (1/4)
📊 🎯 IBM’s ~$11B all‑cash move on $CFLT (~$31/sh) marks one of the clearest rotations into AI data infrastructure scale assets this cycle.
Confluent jumps >28% on the WSJ‑flagged takeout talk, with a stated ~$31–31.50/sh cash bid implying ~31% upside from prior levels and valuing the Kafka (1/4)
Confluent jumps >28% on the WSJ‑flagged takeout talk, with a stated ~$31–31.50/sh cash bid implying ~31% upside from prior levels and valuing the Kafka (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 1:14 PM
📊 🎯 IBM’s ~$11B all‑cash move on $CFLT (~$31/sh) marks one of the clearest rotations into AI data infrastructure scale assets this cycle.
Confluent jumps >28% on the WSJ‑flagged takeout talk, with a stated ~$31–31.50/sh cash bid implying ~31% upside from prior levels and valuing the Kafka (1/4)
Confluent jumps >28% on the WSJ‑flagged takeout talk, with a stated ~$31–31.50/sh cash bid implying ~31% upside from prior levels and valuing the Kafka (1/4)
📊 🎯 Regulatory overhang eases for $LUV as DOT waives the remaining $11M of a record $140M penalty tied to its 2022 holiday meltdown, removing a final cash outlay while leaving headline discipline intact.
The partial waiver reduces near-term regulatory cash drag for Southwest Airlines (1/3)
The partial waiver reduces near-term regulatory cash drag for Southwest Airlines (1/3)
December 8, 2025 at 12:45 PM
📊 🎯 Regulatory overhang eases for $LUV as DOT waives the remaining $11M of a record $140M penalty tied to its 2022 holiday meltdown, removing a final cash outlay while leaving headline discipline intact.
The partial waiver reduces near-term regulatory cash drag for Southwest Airlines (1/3)
The partial waiver reduces near-term regulatory cash drag for Southwest Airlines (1/3)
📊 🎯 Trump’s antitrust overhang just slashed Polymarket odds of the $72B $NFLX–$WBD deal closing by end-2026 from ~60% to 23%, even as $NFLX defends key $100 support.
Trump flagging the combined market share “>30%” and saying the deal “could be a problem” introduces a new regulatory risk (1/4)
Trump flagging the combined market share “>30%” and saying the deal “could be a problem” introduces a new regulatory risk (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 12:37 PM
📊 🎯 Trump’s antitrust overhang just slashed Polymarket odds of the $72B $NFLX–$WBD deal closing by end-2026 from ~60% to 23%, even as $NFLX defends key $100 support.
Trump flagging the combined market share “>30%” and saying the deal “could be a problem” introduces a new regulatory risk (1/4)
Trump flagging the combined market share “>30%” and saying the deal “could be a problem” introduces a new regulatory risk (1/4)
📊 🎯 $CRWV rips ~25% into a $2B + $300M upsized 2031 convert, sharpening the equity vs credit tug-of-war in AI datacenter funding.
The planned convertible senior notes reshape $CRWV’s capital stack, adding potential equity dilution and credit overhang just as technicals focus on $84/85 (1/3)
The planned convertible senior notes reshape $CRWV’s capital stack, adding potential equity dilution and credit overhang just as technicals focus on $84/85 (1/3)
December 8, 2025 at 12:36 PM
📊 🎯 $CRWV rips ~25% into a $2B + $300M upsized 2031 convert, sharpening the equity vs credit tug-of-war in AI datacenter funding.
The planned convertible senior notes reshape $CRWV’s capital stack, adding potential equity dilution and credit overhang just as technicals focus on $84/85 (1/3)
The planned convertible senior notes reshape $CRWV’s capital stack, adding potential equity dilution and credit overhang just as technicals focus on $84/85 (1/3)
📊 🎯 Risk-on tape with $TSLA at the center: Morgan Stanley lifts its base PT to $425 and bull case to $860 as the market leans into autonomy, robotaxis, and Optimus upside.
New lead analyst Andrew Percoco assigns $60/shr to the Optimus humanoid business and frames a wide outcome range (1/5)
New lead analyst Andrew Percoco assigns $60/shr to the Optimus humanoid business and frames a wide outcome range (1/5)
December 8, 2025 at 12:36 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-on tape with $TSLA at the center: Morgan Stanley lifts its base PT to $425 and bull case to $860 as the market leans into autonomy, robotaxis, and Optimus upside.
New lead analyst Andrew Percoco assigns $60/shr to the Optimus humanoid business and frames a wide outcome range (1/5)
New lead analyst Andrew Percoco assigns $60/shr to the Optimus humanoid business and frames a wide outcome range (1/5)
📊 🎯 Income traders are rotating into high-yield ETF exposure as $OMAH’s ~15% payout and $BRK.B-heavy portfolio gain traction in a bullish tape.
With a market regime skewed bullish, the focus is shifting toward yield-plus-equity-beta structures, where $OMAH is framed as a ‘stable price’ (1/3)
With a market regime skewed bullish, the focus is shifting toward yield-plus-equity-beta structures, where $OMAH is framed as a ‘stable price’ (1/3)
December 8, 2025 at 12:36 PM
📊 🎯 Income traders are rotating into high-yield ETF exposure as $OMAH’s ~15% payout and $BRK.B-heavy portfolio gain traction in a bullish tape.
With a market regime skewed bullish, the focus is shifting toward yield-plus-equity-beta structures, where $OMAH is framed as a ‘stable price’ (1/3)
With a market regime skewed bullish, the focus is shifting toward yield-plus-equity-beta structures, where $OMAH is framed as a ‘stable price’ (1/3)
📊 🎯 U.S. beef/ground beef has broken to all-time highs, reinforcing a risk-off, inflationary tape and pressuring Consumer Staples and livestock-linked names.
Spot anecdotes show ground beef at its highest level ever, beef above $6/lb and coffee above $9/lb, with grocery prices up nearly (1/4)
Spot anecdotes show ground beef at its highest level ever, beef above $6/lb and coffee above $9/lb, with grocery prices up nearly (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 12:29 PM
📊 🎯 U.S. beef/ground beef has broken to all-time highs, reinforcing a risk-off, inflationary tape and pressuring Consumer Staples and livestock-linked names.
Spot anecdotes show ground beef at its highest level ever, beef above $6/lb and coffee above $9/lb, with grocery prices up nearly (1/4)
Spot anecdotes show ground beef at its highest level ever, beef above $6/lb and coffee above $9/lb, with grocery prices up nearly (1/4)
📊 🎯 Risk-off in ag: a $12B Trump farmer aid package underscores how tariffs and a 9.75M-ton China soybean shortfall are crushing U.S. farm profitability.
The package is framed as emergency relief for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade policy, with multiple sources tying the stress (1/4)
The package is framed as emergency relief for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade policy, with multiple sources tying the stress (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 12:20 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off in ag: a $12B Trump farmer aid package underscores how tariffs and a 9.75M-ton China soybean shortfall are crushing U.S. farm profitability.
The package is framed as emergency relief for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade policy, with multiple sources tying the stress (1/4)
The package is framed as emergency relief for farmers hurt by low crop prices and trade policy, with multiple sources tying the stress (1/4)
📊 🎯 Risk-off in Indian aviation as IndiGo’s labor + regulatory shock collides with a fragile operational recovery, keeping the near-term skew BEARISH on $INTERGLOBE.
A viral pilots’ open letter attacking CEO Pieter Elbers, allegations of toxic culture and under-compensation (ground staff (1/5)
A viral pilots’ open letter attacking CEO Pieter Elbers, allegations of toxic culture and under-compensation (ground staff (1/5)
December 8, 2025 at 2:57 AM
📊 🎯 Risk-off in Indian aviation as IndiGo’s labor + regulatory shock collides with a fragile operational recovery, keeping the near-term skew BEARISH on $INTERGLOBE.
A viral pilots’ open letter attacking CEO Pieter Elbers, allegations of toxic culture and under-compensation (ground staff (1/5)
A viral pilots’ open letter attacking CEO Pieter Elbers, allegations of toxic culture and under-compensation (ground staff (1/5)
📊 🎯 US–China trade risk is shifting from tariffs to tech: soybeans and cherries flow while advanced chip exports face a higher policy bar.
USTR Greer signals China is broadly complying with Trump-era trade commitments, with Beijing roughly a third through its soybean purchase quota for (1/3)
USTR Greer signals China is broadly complying with Trump-era trade commitments, with Beijing roughly a third through its soybean purchase quota for (1/3)
December 8, 2025 at 2:34 AM
📊 🎯 US–China trade risk is shifting from tariffs to tech: soybeans and cherries flow while advanced chip exports face a higher policy bar.
USTR Greer signals China is broadly complying with Trump-era trade commitments, with Beijing roughly a third through its soybean purchase quota for (1/3)
USTR Greer signals China is broadly complying with Trump-era trade commitments, with Beijing roughly a third through its soybean purchase quota for (1/3)
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone building in EM as Thai–Cambodian border clashes escalate with reported Thai F‑16 airstrikes, artillery exchanges, and civilian evacuations across four Thai border regions.
Cross-border fire, including ~8 reported Thai F‑16 strikes on Cambodian positions (one allegedly a (1/4)
Cross-border fire, including ~8 reported Thai F‑16 strikes on Cambodian positions (one allegedly a (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 2:06 AM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone building in EM as Thai–Cambodian border clashes escalate with reported Thai F‑16 airstrikes, artillery exchanges, and civilian evacuations across four Thai border regions.
Cross-border fire, including ~8 reported Thai F‑16 strikes on Cambodian positions (one allegedly a (1/4)
Cross-border fire, including ~8 reported Thai F‑16 strikes on Cambodian positions (one allegedly a (1/4)
📊 🎯 USDJPY is pinned near 155–155.5 even as Japan prints weaker Q3 GDP and JGBs sell off to 2009 lows, underscoring how rate differentials still dominate the yen narrative.
Japan Q3 GDP was revised down (annualized -2.3% vs -2.0% expected, QoQ -0.6% vs -0.5%), while the GDP Price Index (1/4)
Japan Q3 GDP was revised down (annualized -2.3% vs -2.0% expected, QoQ -0.6% vs -0.5%), while the GDP Price Index (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 12:34 AM
📊 🎯 USDJPY is pinned near 155–155.5 even as Japan prints weaker Q3 GDP and JGBs sell off to 2009 lows, underscoring how rate differentials still dominate the yen narrative.
Japan Q3 GDP was revised down (annualized -2.3% vs -2.0% expected, QoQ -0.6% vs -0.5%), while the GDP Price Index (1/4)
Japan Q3 GDP was revised down (annualized -2.3% vs -2.0% expected, QoQ -0.6% vs -0.5%), while the GDP Price Index (1/4)
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone in Europe as Macron flags “strong measures” on Chinese imports, putting the EU–China trade imbalance (≈€300bn deficit; ~$143bn H1 2025 surplus in China’s favor) at the center of the macro narrative.
Investors are reassessing European industrials/exporters, autos/EV (1/4)
Investors are reassessing European industrials/exporters, autos/EV (1/4)
December 8, 2025 at 12:21 AM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone in Europe as Macron flags “strong measures” on Chinese imports, putting the EU–China trade imbalance (≈€300bn deficit; ~$143bn H1 2025 surplus in China’s favor) at the center of the macro narrative.
Investors are reassessing European industrials/exporters, autos/EV (1/4)
Investors are reassessing European industrials/exporters, autos/EV (1/4)
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone building in Asia as China-Japan radar-lock incidents near Okinawa/Taiwan re-price regional security premia and support relative bid for defense-exposed names.
Two separate fire-control radar illuminations by Chinese J-15s from carrier Liaoning on Japan ASDF F-15s over (1/4)
Two separate fire-control radar illuminations by Chinese J-15s from carrier Liaoning on Japan ASDF F-15s over (1/4)
December 7, 2025 at 11:22 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone building in Asia as China-Japan radar-lock incidents near Okinawa/Taiwan re-price regional security premia and support relative bid for defense-exposed names.
Two separate fire-control radar illuminations by Chinese J-15s from carrier Liaoning on Japan ASDF F-15s over (1/4)
Two separate fire-control radar illuminations by Chinese J-15s from carrier Liaoning on Japan ASDF F-15s over (1/4)
📊 🎯 Rotation into hard assets intensifies as spot silver breaks to a new record high near $58.99/oz while gold holds above $4,200/oz, even as $BTC underperforms both bullion and U.S. equities intraday.
Silver is up over 3% on the day with prints around $58.84–58.99/oz (China overnight (1/5)
Silver is up over 3% on the day with prints around $58.84–58.99/oz (China overnight (1/5)
December 6, 2025 at 2:31 AM
📊 🎯 Rotation into hard assets intensifies as spot silver breaks to a new record high near $58.99/oz while gold holds above $4,200/oz, even as $BTC underperforms both bullion and U.S. equities intraday.
Silver is up over 3% on the day with prints around $58.84–58.99/oz (China overnight (1/5)
Silver is up over 3% on the day with prints around $58.84–58.99/oz (China overnight (1/5)
📊 🎯 MXN breaks to year lows in USD terms, with USD/MXN testing the 18.15–18.18 support zone and extending its 2025 rally to ~12.6%.
The “super peso” is trading around 18.18–18.20 per USD after touching intraday lows near 18.1482–18.15, its best level since late July 2024, amid a 0.08% (1/4)
The “super peso” is trading around 18.18–18.20 per USD after touching intraday lows near 18.1482–18.15, its best level since late July 2024, amid a 0.08% (1/4)
December 6, 2025 at 2:25 AM
📊 🎯 MXN breaks to year lows in USD terms, with USD/MXN testing the 18.15–18.18 support zone and extending its 2025 rally to ~12.6%.
The “super peso” is trading around 18.18–18.20 per USD after touching intraday lows near 18.1482–18.15, its best level since late July 2024, amid a 0.08% (1/4)
The “super peso” is trading around 18.18–18.20 per USD after touching intraday lows near 18.1482–18.15, its best level since late July 2024, amid a 0.08% (1/4)