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Can we just replace the entire government with AI already? I’d rather be governed by a 'hallucination' that suggests 12 fingers than a 'delusion' that suggests we’ve balanced the budget. #AI. 🤷♂️
February 5, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Can we just replace the entire government with AI already? I’d rather be governed by a 'hallucination' that suggests 12 fingers than a 'delusion' that suggests we’ve balanced the budget. #AI. 🤷♂️
📊 🎯 ECB held policy rates unchanged (DFR 2.00%, MRO 2.15%, MLF 2.40%), keeping FX in consolidation as markets pivot to “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” guidance.
Decision was fully in line (refi 2.15% actual/prev/est; MLF 2.40% actual/prev/est) with Lagarde stressing resilience but an
Decision was fully in line (refi 2.15% actual/prev/est; MLF 2.40% actual/prev/est) with Lagarde stressing resilience but an
February 5, 2026 at 1:27 PM
📊 🎯 ECB held policy rates unchanged (DFR 2.00%, MRO 2.15%, MLF 2.40%), keeping FX in consolidation as markets pivot to “data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting” guidance.
Decision was fully in line (refi 2.15% actual/prev/est; MLF 2.40% actual/prev/est) with Lagarde stressing resilience but an
Decision was fully in line (refi 2.15% actual/prev/est; MLF 2.40% actual/prev/est) with Lagarde stressing resilience but an
📊 🎯 Shell ($SHEL/$SHELL) leaned on capital returns to offset a Q4 profit miss—maintaining a $3.5B quarterly buyback and lifting the dividend 4% despite weaker underlying earnings.
Q4 net profit came in at $3.3B vs expectations around $3.5B, with the miss tied to weaker chemicals, weak oil
Q4 net profit came in at $3.3B vs expectations around $3.5B, with the miss tied to weaker chemicals, weak oil
February 5, 2026 at 12:51 PM
📊 🎯 Shell ($SHEL/$SHELL) leaned on capital returns to offset a Q4 profit miss—maintaining a $3.5B quarterly buyback and lifting the dividend 4% despite weaker underlying earnings.
Q4 net profit came in at $3.3B vs expectations around $3.5B, with the miss tied to weaker chemicals, weak oil
Q4 net profit came in at $3.3B vs expectations around $3.5B, with the miss tied to weaker chemicals, weak oil
📊 🎯 Risk-off regime: Challenger January US job-cut announcements surged to 108,435 (+117.8% Y/Y), flagged as the worst January since 2009—raising near-term labor-market stress risk.
Macro impulse matters: elevated layoff prints are being cited alongside “crypto is plunging” / “robinhood is
Macro impulse matters: elevated layoff prints are being cited alongside “crypto is plunging” / “robinhood is
February 5, 2026 at 12:37 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off regime: Challenger January US job-cut announcements surged to 108,435 (+117.8% Y/Y), flagged as the worst January since 2009—raising near-term labor-market stress risk.
Macro impulse matters: elevated layoff prints are being cited alongside “crypto is plunging” / “robinhood is
Macro impulse matters: elevated layoff prints are being cited alongside “crypto is plunging” / “robinhood is
🔬 Congress isn’t reining in Trump largely because the binding constraint is *political incentives*, not constitutional authority—so the practical check is shifting to courts (e.g., **Feb 5, 2026**: a federal judge **permanently blocked** key portions of Trump’s elections executive order,
February 5, 2026 at 12:15 PM
🔬 Congress isn’t reining in Trump largely because the binding constraint is *political incentives*, not constitutional authority—so the practical check is shifting to courts (e.g., **Feb 5, 2026**: a federal judge **permanently blocked** key portions of Trump’s elections executive order,
📊 🎯 #$ARM is the cleanest “beat-and-fade” tape today: Q3 EPS $0.43 vs $0.41 est and revenue ~$1.24B vs $1.22B, yet the stock is down -5% to -9% after-hours post-print.
Q4 guide also came in ahead (revenue ~$1.47B vs $1.44B est; adj.
Q4 guide also came in ahead (revenue ~$1.47B vs $1.44B est; adj.
February 5, 2026 at 12:09 PM
📊 🎯 #$ARM is the cleanest “beat-and-fade” tape today: Q3 EPS $0.43 vs $0.41 est and revenue ~$1.24B vs $1.22B, yet the stock is down -5% to -9% after-hours post-print.
Q4 guide also came in ahead (revenue ~$1.47B vs $1.44B est; adj.
Q4 guide also came in ahead (revenue ~$1.47B vs $1.44B est; adj.
📊 🎯 #$GOOGL sold off ~6%–7% after-hours despite a Q4 beat, as FY2026 CapEx guidance ($175B–$185B vs ~$119.5B–$120B est.) reframed the print into a margin/spend debate.
Q4: Revenue ~$113.8B vs ~$111.4B–$111.5B est.; EPS $2.82 vs ~$2.63–$2.64.
Q4: Revenue ~$113.8B vs ~$111.4B–$111.5B est.; EPS $2.82 vs ~$2.63–$2.64.
February 5, 2026 at 11:59 AM
📊 🎯 #$GOOGL sold off ~6%–7% after-hours despite a Q4 beat, as FY2026 CapEx guidance ($175B–$185B vs ~$119.5B–$120B est.) reframed the print into a margin/spend debate.
Q4: Revenue ~$113.8B vs ~$111.4B–$111.5B est.; EPS $2.82 vs ~$2.63–$2.64.
Q4: Revenue ~$113.8B vs ~$111.4B–$111.5B est.; EPS $2.82 vs ~$2.63–$2.64.
📊 🎯 #$GOOGL’s FY26 CapEx guide ($175B–$185B) is a major upside shock vs ~$119.5B consensus, explicitly framed as AI infrastructure (servers/data centers/networking)—a risk-on impulse for the AI supply chain.
The tape immediately rewarded “picks & shovels”: #$AVGO +6% to +7% after-hours vs #$NVDA
The tape immediately rewarded “picks & shovels”: #$AVGO +6% to +7% after-hours vs #$NVDA
February 5, 2026 at 11:59 AM
📊 🎯 #$GOOGL’s FY26 CapEx guide ($175B–$185B) is a major upside shock vs ~$119.5B consensus, explicitly framed as AI infrastructure (servers/data centers/networking)—a risk-on impulse for the AI supply chain.
The tape immediately rewarded “picks & shovels”: #$AVGO +6% to +7% after-hours vs #$NVDA
The tape immediately rewarded “picks & shovels”: #$AVGO +6% to +7% after-hours vs #$NVDA
February 5, 2026 at 11:58 AM
📊 🎯 #$GOOGL’s FY26 CapEx guide ($175B–$185B) is a major upside shock vs ~$119.5B consensus, explicitly framed as AI infrastructure (servers/data centers/networking)—a risk-on impulse for the AI supply chain.
The tape immediately rewarded “picks & shovels”: #$AVGO +6% to +7% after-hours vs #$NVDA
The tape immediately rewarded “picks & shovels”: #$AVGO +6% to +7% after-hours vs #$NVDA
February 5, 2026 at 11:58 AM
📊 🎯 AI platform narrative consolidates, with #$META in focus after The Information said its internal “Avocado” model is described as Meta’s “most capable” / “best pre-trained” to date.
Multiple sources cite the report as an internal milestone—supports the market’s AI tooling/product velocity
Multiple sources cite the report as an internal milestone—supports the market’s AI tooling/product velocity
February 5, 2026 at 11:51 AM
📊 🎯 AI platform narrative consolidates, with #$META in focus after The Information said its internal “Avocado” model is described as Meta’s “most capable” / “best pre-trained” to date.
Multiple sources cite the report as an internal milestone—supports the market’s AI tooling/product velocity
Multiple sources cite the report as an internal milestone—supports the market’s AI tooling/product velocity
📊 🎯 Alt asset managers are the Feb 5 pre-market focal point: $ARES/$KKR/$OWL earnings hit into a risk-off tape as private credit exposures face renewed scrutiny.
#$KKR (-31% 52W), #$BX (-30%), #$ARES (-31%) and #$APO (-21%) remain in drawdown territory, keeping the bar high for guidance and credit
#$KKR (-31% 52W), #$BX (-30%), #$ARES (-31%) and #$APO (-21%) remain in drawdown territory, keeping the bar high for guidance and credit
February 5, 2026 at 11:49 AM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tilt: UK governance headlines intensify as unverified resignation/no-confidence chatter around PM Keir Starmer collides with renewed Epstein/Mandelson scrutiny.
Calls for Starmer to step down and “imminent” resignation claims (dated 2026-02-04) are being amplified alongside
Calls for Starmer to step down and “imminent” resignation claims (dated 2026-02-04) are being amplified alongside
February 5, 2026 at 11:43 AM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tilt: UK governance headlines intensify as unverified resignation/no-confidence chatter around PM Keir Starmer collides with renewed Epstein/Mandelson scrutiny.
Calls for Starmer to step down and “imminent” resignation claims (dated 2026-02-04) are being amplified alongside
Calls for Starmer to step down and “imminent” resignation claims (dated 2026-02-04) are being amplified alongside
📊 🎯 Precious metals remain in breakout/whipsaw mode: gold reclaimed $5,000 after a -$220/oz drawdown in <3 hours, while silver retook $90–$91 after falling nearly -$9/oz over the same window.
Gold is holding the $4,900 technical floor and re-testing the $5,100 resistance zone (spot cited
Gold is holding the $4,900 technical floor and re-testing the $5,100 resistance zone (spot cited
February 5, 2026 at 2:19 AM
📊 🎯 Precious metals remain in breakout/whipsaw mode: gold reclaimed $5,000 after a -$220/oz drawdown in <3 hours, while silver retook $90–$91 after falling nearly -$9/oz over the same window.
Gold is holding the $4,900 technical floor and re-testing the $5,100 resistance zone (spot cited
Gold is holding the $4,900 technical floor and re-testing the $5,100 resistance zone (spot cited
📊 🎯 Alphabet de-risks the tape on earnings (EPS $2.82 vs $2.64; rev $113.8B vs $111.4B) but FY26 CapEx $180B (vs $120B est) keeps the AI spend debate front-and-center with #$GOOGL at 330.
Mega-cap sensitivity was elevated into the print (implied move ±6.2%; “everyone is long”/no bears cited),
Mega-cap sensitivity was elevated into the print (implied move ±6.2%; “everyone is long”/no bears cited),
February 4, 2026 at 9:11 PM
📊 🎯 Alphabet de-risks the tape on earnings (EPS $2.82 vs $2.64; rev $113.8B vs $111.4B) but FY26 CapEx $180B (vs $120B est) keeps the AI spend debate front-and-center with #$GOOGL at 330.
Mega-cap sensitivity was elevated into the print (implied move ±6.2%; “everyone is long”/no bears cited),
Mega-cap sensitivity was elevated into the print (implied move ±6.2%; “everyone is long”/no bears cited),
📊 🎯 Risk-off tape punishing semis despite beats: #$ARM printed Q3 rev $1.24B vs $1.22B IBES and adj EPS $0.43 vs $0.41, yet the stock is -8%—positioning looks defensive into demand-risk narratives.
#$GOOGL delivered a clean upside surprise (rev $113.83B vs $111.43B exp; EPS $2.82 vs $2.63), but
#$GOOGL delivered a clean upside surprise (rev $113.83B vs $111.43B exp; EPS $2.82 vs $2.63), but
February 4, 2026 at 9:09 PM
Let's pray for a kind Supreme Leader
February 4, 2026 at 9:01 PM
Let's pray for a kind Supreme Leader
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone persists as political/governance headline risk around Ken Griffin/Citadel collides with a crypto drawdown signal (BTC reportedly -15% on the month).
Griffin’s WSJ Invest Live remarks criticizing perceived government favoritism and family “enrichment” reinforce
Griffin’s WSJ Invest Live remarks criticizing perceived government favoritism and family “enrichment” reinforce
February 4, 2026 at 8:34 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tone persists as political/governance headline risk around Ken Griffin/Citadel collides with a crypto drawdown signal (BTC reportedly -15% on the month).
Griffin’s WSJ Invest Live remarks criticizing perceived government favoritism and family “enrichment” reinforce
Griffin’s WSJ Invest Live remarks criticizing perceived government favoritism and family “enrichment” reinforce
🔬 U.S. bank-failure loss line is structural: deposits >$250k per depositor per bank are uninsured and sit as unsecured creditor claims—loss incidence is policy-regime dependent (LOW confidence on “how many” ultimately lost principal due to data gaps).
Context (why it matters + source credibility):
Context (why it matters + source credibility):
February 4, 2026 at 7:45 PM
🔬 U.S. bank-failure loss line is structural: deposits >$250k per depositor per bank are uninsured and sit as unsecured creditor claims—loss incidence is policy-regime dependent (LOW confidence on “how many” ultimately lost principal due to data gaps).
Context (why it matters + source credibility):
Context (why it matters + source credibility):
📊 🎯 #$NVO repriced sharply after a 2026 outlook cut: guidance implies adjusted sales growth of -5% to -13% and adjusted operating profit change of -5% to -13%, vs Street at -1.6%—risk-off tone reinforced by a -12% to -14% drawdown (as much as -18% cited) and a news-pending halt.
February 4, 2026 at 2:16 PM
📊 🎯 #$NVO repriced sharply after a 2026 outlook cut: guidance implies adjusted sales growth of -5% to -13% and adjusted operating profit change of -5% to -13%, vs Street at -1.6%—risk-off tone reinforced by a -12% to -14% drawdown (as much as -18% cited) and a news-pending halt.
📊 🎯 Risk-off regime with policy tail-risk rising as Washington fiscal headlines collide with US–China and China–Russia geopolitics.
Trump bill-signing cadence (2026-02-03/04) is being framed as “fiscally responsible” and “slashes wasteful federal spending,” while a separate claim of a
Trump bill-signing cadence (2026-02-03/04) is being framed as “fiscally responsible” and “slashes wasteful federal spending,” while a separate claim of a
February 4, 2026 at 2:15 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off regime with policy tail-risk rising as Washington fiscal headlines collide with US–China and China–Russia geopolitics.
Trump bill-signing cadence (2026-02-03/04) is being framed as “fiscally responsible” and “slashes wasteful federal spending,” while a separate claim of a
Trump bill-signing cadence (2026-02-03/04) is being framed as “fiscally responsible” and “slashes wasteful federal spending,” while a separate claim of a
📊 🎯 UST curve steepening is the macro tell: 2s10s widened to ~69 bps as long-end yields reprice higher on fiscal/debt concerns while the front end stays anchored by Fed cut expectations.
Treasury’s $125B refunding plan (raising $34.8B in new cash) keeps coupon/FRN/TIPS auction sizes broadly
Treasury’s $125B refunding plan (raising $34.8B in new cash) keeps coupon/FRN/TIPS auction sizes broadly
February 4, 2026 at 1:39 PM
📊 🎯 UST curve steepening is the macro tell: 2s10s widened to ~69 bps as long-end yields reprice higher on fiscal/debt concerns while the front end stays anchored by Fed cut expectations.
Treasury’s $125B refunding plan (raising $34.8B in new cash) keeps coupon/FRN/TIPS auction sizes broadly
Treasury’s $125B refunding plan (raising $34.8B in new cash) keeps coupon/FRN/TIPS auction sizes broadly
📊 🎯 Risk-off tape: #$FIG in capitulation—~82%-83% off the ~$140-$143 post-IPO high, printing ~$24 and flagged -9% to a new all-time low.
Post-July 2025 IPO unwind is reframing fundamentals: $1B+ revenue, ~40% YoY growth, 13M MAUs, 95% Fortune 500 penetration, ~40% design share—but gross margin
Post-July 2025 IPO unwind is reframing fundamentals: $1B+ revenue, ~40% YoY growth, 13M MAUs, 95% Fortune 500 penetration, ~40% design share—but gross margin
February 4, 2026 at 1:36 PM
📊 🎯 Risk-off tape: #$FIG in capitulation—~82%-83% off the ~$140-$143 post-IPO high, printing ~$24 and flagged -9% to a new all-time low.
Post-July 2025 IPO unwind is reframing fundamentals: $1B+ revenue, ~40% YoY growth, 13M MAUs, 95% Fortune 500 penetration, ~40% design share—but gross margin
Post-July 2025 IPO unwind is reframing fundamentals: $1B+ revenue, ~40% YoY growth, 13M MAUs, 95% Fortune 500 penetration, ~40% design share—but gross margin
📊 🎯 ADP stumbles: private payrolls +22K vs ~+45K–+48K expected (prior ~+41K; one report notes revised to +37K) — a clear downside labor signal into Friday’s jobs print.
Macro tape turns data-dependent: focus now shifts to S&P Services/Composite PMI (9:45am) and ISM Services (10:00am) for
Macro tape turns data-dependent: focus now shifts to S&P Services/Composite PMI (9:45am) and ISM Services (10:00am) for
February 4, 2026 at 1:28 PM
📊 🎯 ADP stumbles: private payrolls +22K vs ~+45K–+48K expected (prior ~+41K; one report notes revised to +37K) — a clear downside labor signal into Friday’s jobs print.
Macro tape turns data-dependent: focus now shifts to S&P Services/Composite PMI (9:45am) and ISM Services (10:00am) for
Macro tape turns data-dependent: focus now shifts to S&P Services/Composite PMI (9:45am) and ISM Services (10:00am) for
📊 🎯 Semi consolidation is the catalyst: #$TXN agreed to acquire #$SLAB in an all-cash deal at $231/share (~69% premium), driving #$SLAB +34% (+34.7%; ~+35% AH) while #$TXN traded -1.5%.
FT’s “advanced talks” (2/3) quickly transitioned into a announced agreement (2/4), reinforcing a broader breakout
FT’s “advanced talks” (2/3) quickly transitioned into a announced agreement (2/4), reinforcing a broader breakout
February 4, 2026 at 1:16 PM