Keaton Arneson
@keatonarneson.fangraphs.com
Fantasy Baseball (x2 NFBC Overall Finisher) | Developer @FanGraphs.com | Engineer
Parker Messick was allergic to giving up walks with his fastball. He had a 90 command grade in 3 ball counts. That breaks the upper scale of 80 for PitchingBot command.
February 16, 2026 at 8:03 PM
Parker Messick was allergic to giving up walks with his fastball. He had a 90 command grade in 3 ball counts. That breaks the upper scale of 80 for PitchingBot command.
CJ Kayfus and Bo Naylor were the unsung heroes during Cleveland's 20-7 September.
February 16, 2026 at 7:47 PM
CJ Kayfus and Bo Naylor were the unsung heroes during Cleveland's 20-7 September.
Robbie Ray 2020 - 6.62 ERA
Ray 2021 - 2.84 ERA
Jesus Luzardo 2021 - 6.61 ERA
2022 - 3.32 ERA
Yusei Kikuchi 2022 - 5.19 ERA
2023 - 3.86 ERA
Carlos Rodon 2023 - 6.85 ERA
2024 - 3.96 ERA
Trevor Rogers 2024 - 4.92 ERA
2025 - 1.81 ERA
Sean Manaea 2025 - 5.64 ERA
2026 - ???
Ray 2021 - 2.84 ERA
Jesus Luzardo 2021 - 6.61 ERA
2022 - 3.32 ERA
Yusei Kikuchi 2022 - 5.19 ERA
2023 - 3.86 ERA
Carlos Rodon 2023 - 6.85 ERA
2024 - 3.96 ERA
Trevor Rogers 2024 - 4.92 ERA
2025 - 1.81 ERA
Sean Manaea 2025 - 5.64 ERA
2026 - ???
February 8, 2026 at 8:41 PM
Robbie Ray 2020 - 6.62 ERA
Ray 2021 - 2.84 ERA
Jesus Luzardo 2021 - 6.61 ERA
2022 - 3.32 ERA
Yusei Kikuchi 2022 - 5.19 ERA
2023 - 3.86 ERA
Carlos Rodon 2023 - 6.85 ERA
2024 - 3.96 ERA
Trevor Rogers 2024 - 4.92 ERA
2025 - 1.81 ERA
Sean Manaea 2025 - 5.64 ERA
2026 - ???
Ray 2021 - 2.84 ERA
Jesus Luzardo 2021 - 6.61 ERA
2022 - 3.32 ERA
Yusei Kikuchi 2022 - 5.19 ERA
2023 - 3.86 ERA
Carlos Rodon 2023 - 6.85 ERA
2024 - 3.96 ERA
Trevor Rogers 2024 - 4.92 ERA
2025 - 1.81 ERA
Sean Manaea 2025 - 5.64 ERA
2026 - ???
Oopsy's favorite hitter pick is Jo Adell. Easy pick in my DC draft.
January 29, 2026 at 10:08 PM
Oopsy's favorite hitter pick is Jo Adell. Easy pick in my DC draft.
One thing I appreciate about OOPSY projections is it can be different compared to the rest. In this example, Steamer and BAT had identical 4.04 ERA, but OOPSY is down to 3.37.
January 12, 2026 at 10:37 PM
One thing I appreciate about OOPSY projections is it can be different compared to the rest. In this example, Steamer and BAT had identical 4.04 ERA, but OOPSY is down to 3.37.
THE BAT/BAT X are live now 👀
December 31, 2025 at 7:11 PM
THE BAT/BAT X are live now 👀
I find it interesting that Caminero has a career .260 average, but Steamer has him climbing to .278. Babip positive regression.
December 30, 2025 at 10:32 PM
I find it interesting that Caminero has a career .260 average, but Steamer has him climbing to .278. Babip positive regression.
Looks like next year I need to step up my game to reach Diamond level.
December 5, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Looks like next year I need to step up my game to reach Diamond level.
Gavin Lux only had 5 HR and 1 SB in 500 PA. That ties Joe Mauer (2018) for the worst HR + SB (6 HR) since Adeiny Hechavarria with 3 HR and 1 SB in 2016.
December 2, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Gavin Lux only had 5 HR and 1 SB in 500 PA. That ties Joe Mauer (2018) for the worst HR + SB (6 HR) since Adeiny Hechavarria with 3 HR and 1 SB in 2016.
Samuel Basallo is going into his age 21 season.
The only age 21 catcher season that I can find recently was Francisco Alvarez in 2023. He went .209 51 25 63 2.
His ADP is currently 177 while Adley Rutschman's is 165.
I don't think history is on his side to meet the expectations of the #13 C.
The only age 21 catcher season that I can find recently was Francisco Alvarez in 2023. He went .209 51 25 63 2.
His ADP is currently 177 while Adley Rutschman's is 165.
I don't think history is on his side to meet the expectations of the #13 C.
November 13, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Samuel Basallo is going into his age 21 season.
The only age 21 catcher season that I can find recently was Francisco Alvarez in 2023. He went .209 51 25 63 2.
His ADP is currently 177 while Adley Rutschman's is 165.
I don't think history is on his side to meet the expectations of the #13 C.
The only age 21 catcher season that I can find recently was Francisco Alvarez in 2023. He went .209 51 25 63 2.
His ADP is currently 177 while Adley Rutschman's is 165.
I don't think history is on his side to meet the expectations of the #13 C.
Using FG Depth Charts playing time with Steamer:
Player A - 630 PA .254 83 20 68 30 ADP 50
Player B - 630 PA .252 84 20 65 29 ADP 200
Player A - 630 PA .254 83 20 68 30 ADP 50
Player B - 630 PA .252 84 20 65 29 ADP 200
November 11, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Using FG Depth Charts playing time with Steamer:
Player A - 630 PA .254 83 20 68 30 ADP 50
Player B - 630 PA .252 84 20 65 29 ADP 200
Player A - 630 PA .254 83 20 68 30 ADP 50
Player B - 630 PA .252 84 20 65 29 ADP 200
First thought of looking at ADP. Caminero is going too high for someone that doesn't help in SB or AVG. I'd rather have guys like Tatis, Lindor, or Chourio over him easily.
November 10, 2025 at 9:58 PM
First thought of looking at ADP. Caminero is going too high for someone that doesn't help in SB or AVG. I'd rather have guys like Tatis, Lindor, or Chourio over him easily.
Projections page has updated NFBC DC ADP! For those of us who don't take a break from fantasy baseball.
November 10, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Projections page has updated NFBC DC ADP! For those of us who don't take a break from fantasy baseball.
Steamer projections are out
November 4, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Steamer projections are out
Reposted by Keaton Arneson
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October 23, 2025 at 3:17 PM
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That's a huge cliff at 3B this year. Pretty much all or nothing.
October 6, 2025 at 8:50 PM
That's a huge cliff at 3B this year. Pretty much all or nothing.
The new scoreboard is launched 🎉
October 6, 2025 at 12:01 AM
The new scoreboard is launched 🎉
Great way to end the regular season!
September 28, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Great way to end the regular season!
The new scoreboard beta is out!
September 28, 2025 at 6:42 PM
The new scoreboard beta is out!
Lots of interesting names at the bottom of xwOBA in the second half.
September 4, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Lots of interesting names at the bottom of xwOBA in the second half.
Nolan McLean is SP #14 for the second half in only 3 starts. Everyone above and below is pretty much double his innings.
August 28, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Nolan McLean is SP #14 for the second half in only 3 starts. Everyone above and below is pretty much double his innings.
Reposted by Keaton Arneson
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today! blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-tu...
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today!
Where does the time go?
blogs.fangraphs.com
August 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM
FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today! blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-tu...
3-way fight for the #1 fantasy player this year. Though at his ADP, Raleigh would be the most valuable. Caveat 2-catcher leagues.
August 13, 2025 at 9:17 PM
3-way fight for the #1 fantasy player this year. Though at his ADP, Raleigh would be the most valuable. Caveat 2-catcher leagues.
#1 pitcher in the second half. Civale has been displaced.
August 6, 2025 at 9:07 PM
#1 pitcher in the second half. Civale has been displaced.
Just as we all expected, Civale being the #1 pitcher in the second half.
August 4, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Just as we all expected, Civale being the #1 pitcher in the second half.