koenfucius
@koenfucius.bsky.social
Accidental behavioural economist
koenfucius.substack.com
koenfucius.substack.com
Pinned
Blogged: How our prosperity is based on ignorance
Our economy is built on the enigmatic concept of the economic surplus: the win-win of trade, making both buyer and seller better off. But this surplus relies on mutual ignorance, which is under threat...
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Our economy is built on the enigmatic concept of the economic surplus: the win-win of trade, making both buyer and seller better off. But this surplus relies on mutual ignorance, which is under threat...
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Research using the Rock-Paper-Scissors game finds players who lost retained information from previous rounds, while this is not the case for winners:
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
December 9, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Research using the Rock-Paper-Scissors game finds players who lost retained information from previous rounds, while this is not the case for winners:
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
Unraveling the plot of a tale of two halves.
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
December 9, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Unraveling the plot of a tale of two halves.
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
We are hardwired to sing − and it’s good for us, too:
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
December 8, 2025 at 7:51 PM
We are hardwired to sing − and it’s good for us, too:
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
Over the centuries, Marcus Aurelius has persuaded countless people to join the Stoics.
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
December 8, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Over the centuries, Marcus Aurelius has persuaded countless people to join the Stoics.
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
To persuade people, don’t write a pamphlet—write a story that makes people feel “a sledgehammer has come down with 20 times the force”.
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
December 8, 2025 at 5:35 PM
To persuade people, don’t write a pamphlet—write a story that makes people feel “a sledgehammer has come down with 20 times the force”.
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
Linear models FTW
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
December 8, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Linear models FTW
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
The entire economy relies on trade, in which a seller’s Willingness-To-Accept is less than a buyer’s Willingness-To-Pay, and the difference is shared.
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
December 8, 2025 at 12:22 PM
The entire economy relies on trade, in which a seller’s Willingness-To-Accept is less than a buyer’s Willingness-To-Pay, and the difference is shared.
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Has @anilseth.bsky.social identified an underrated reason why “AI consciousness” isn’t imminent?
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
December 8, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Has @anilseth.bsky.social identified an underrated reason why “AI consciousness” isn’t imminent?
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
Research by Eldadi et al finds highly educated people
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
December 8, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Research by Eldadi et al finds highly educated people
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
The midlife crisis—one of the most enduring ideas in psychology—is more myth than reality.
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
December 8, 2025 at 6:53 AM
The midlife crisis—one of the most enduring ideas in psychology—is more myth than reality.
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
Toenail infections are common (especially in the elderly), and remarkably hard to combat both through oral and topical treatments.
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
December 8, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Toenail infections are common (especially in the elderly), and remarkably hard to combat both through oral and topical treatments.
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
If you’ve never heard Mozart’s well-known 40th Symphony G minor (the first movement, Allegro molto) as a piano duet, here’s a chance (performed by Anh Khôi and Xuân An).
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
December 7, 2025 at 9:24 PM
If you’ve never heard Mozart’s well-known 40th Symphony G minor (the first movement, Allegro molto) as a piano duet, here’s a chance (performed by Anh Khôi and Xuân An).
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
A medieval murder map, showing where homicides took place in three 14thC English cities—London, Oxford and York reveals some surprising geographic similarities with today’s maps:
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
December 7, 2025 at 7:51 PM
A medieval murder map, showing where homicides took place in three 14thC English cities—London, Oxford and York reveals some surprising geographic similarities with today’s maps:
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
Sellers are starting to use big data and algorithms to discover how much each individual buyer is willing to pay.
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
December 7, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Sellers are starting to use big data and algorithms to discover how much each individual buyer is willing to pay.
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Human society reflects a tradeoff between flexible norms for moral judgment (allowing for legitimate excuses but open to exploitation), and rigid norms (mandating cooperation even when ad hoc reasoning could yield better outcomes), Lie-Panis et al argue:
buff.ly/BErDp3R
buff.ly/BErDp3R
December 7, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Human society reflects a tradeoff between flexible norms for moral judgment (allowing for legitimate excuses but open to exploitation), and rigid norms (mandating cooperation even when ad hoc reasoning could yield better outcomes), Lie-Panis et al argue:
buff.ly/BErDp3R
buff.ly/BErDp3R
Some behaviours can easily be turned into habits—just repeat until it sticks.
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
December 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Some behaviours can easily be turned into habits—just repeat until it sticks.
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
Het begrotingscircus heeft, zowel in het VK als in België, inmiddels zijn biezen gepakt en is uit het nieuws verdwenen.
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
December 7, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Het begrotingscircus heeft, zowel in het VK als in België, inmiddels zijn biezen gepakt en is uit het nieuws verdwenen.
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
How do you measure someone’s ‘moral goodness’?
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
December 7, 2025 at 9:18 AM
How do you measure someone’s ‘moral goodness’?
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
New research suggests fluid intelligence—the capacity to solve new problems and recognize patterns—is associated with the ability to map objects or items of information, capturing how they relate to each other in space or conceptually:
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
December 7, 2025 at 7:53 AM
New research suggests fluid intelligence—the capacity to solve new problems and recognize patterns—is associated with the ability to map objects or items of information, capturing how they relate to each other in space or conceptually:
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
Super-resolution light (as opposed to electron) microscopes allow us to look inside living cells.
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
December 7, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Super-resolution light (as opposed to electron) microscopes allow us to look inside living cells.
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
December 7, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Anticipating the age of information overload?
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
December 6, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Anticipating the age of information overload?
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
The momentary lapses of attention we experience after a sleep deprived night is when the brain catches up on the maintenance and flushing out it would otherwise have done during proper sleep, explains @halmacmc:
buff.ly/O9blMv1
buff.ly/O9blMv1
December 6, 2025 at 7:51 PM
The momentary lapses of attention we experience after a sleep deprived night is when the brain catches up on the maintenance and flushing out it would otherwise have done during proper sleep, explains @halmacmc:
buff.ly/O9blMv1
buff.ly/O9blMv1
What is the appeal of advent calendars?
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
December 6, 2025 at 6:19 PM
What is the appeal of advent calendars?
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could reliably distinguish AI generated from human generated text?
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
December 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could reliably distinguish AI generated from human generated text?
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC