koenfucius
@koenfucius.bsky.social
Accidental behavioural economist
koenfucius.substack.com
koenfucius.substack.com
Pinned
Blogged: the Psychology of Budgets
Budget time–when public interest in the government peaks–last week in Belgium and the UK. A good time for spotting behavioural quirks and psychological traps on both sides.
I took a look in my weekly post. Enjoy!
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Budget time–when public interest in the government peaks–last week in Belgium and the UK. A good time for spotting behavioural quirks and psychological traps on both sides.
I took a look in my weekly post. Enjoy!
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Last week’s government budget frenzy in Belgium and the UK is behind us.
This annual political spectacle is also a showcase of cognitive-behavioural phenomena—ICYMI, last call for my post, The psychology of budgets:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
This annual political spectacle is also a showcase of cognitive-behavioural phenomena—ICYMI, last call for my post, The psychology of budgets:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
December 4, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Last week’s government budget frenzy in Belgium and the UK is behind us.
This annual political spectacle is also a showcase of cognitive-behavioural phenomena—ICYMI, last call for my post, The psychology of budgets:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
This annual political spectacle is also a showcase of cognitive-behavioural phenomena—ICYMI, last call for my post, The psychology of budgets:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Ten years ago, the OED’s word of the year was “😂”.
If this is a word, is ‘emoji’ a language?
@keithhouston.bsky.social’s interesting exploration of the question takes us along a literary translation (Emoji Dick), the challenge of universality and more:
buff.ly/D00WGXr
If this is a word, is ‘emoji’ a language?
@keithhouston.bsky.social’s interesting exploration of the question takes us along a literary translation (Emoji Dick), the challenge of universality and more:
buff.ly/D00WGXr
December 4, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Ten years ago, the OED’s word of the year was “😂”.
If this is a word, is ‘emoji’ a language?
@keithhouston.bsky.social’s interesting exploration of the question takes us along a literary translation (Emoji Dick), the challenge of universality and more:
buff.ly/D00WGXr
If this is a word, is ‘emoji’ a language?
@keithhouston.bsky.social’s interesting exploration of the question takes us along a literary translation (Emoji Dick), the challenge of universality and more:
buff.ly/D00WGXr
People hate inflation, but much less so when it results from tariffs, which also hurt the countries that “have been taking advantage of us”, research by @aleximas.bsky.social et al finds:
buff.ly/bgCirrO
TL;DR: buff.ly/NakkT7I
buff.ly/bgCirrO
TL;DR: buff.ly/NakkT7I
December 4, 2025 at 4:41 PM
People hate inflation, but much less so when it results from tariffs, which also hurt the countries that “have been taking advantage of us”, research by @aleximas.bsky.social et al finds:
buff.ly/bgCirrO
TL;DR: buff.ly/NakkT7I
buff.ly/bgCirrO
TL;DR: buff.ly/NakkT7I
“most—if not all—apparent acts of altruism can be explained by self-interest”, because we care about our reputation, argues Josh Zlatkus.
The internet insulates us, providing us with reputational cover and allowing us to behave like jerks with impunity:
buff.ly/jBnVNmM
The internet insulates us, providing us with reputational cover and allowing us to behave like jerks with impunity:
buff.ly/jBnVNmM
December 4, 2025 at 11:35 AM
“most—if not all—apparent acts of altruism can be explained by self-interest”, because we care about our reputation, argues Josh Zlatkus.
The internet insulates us, providing us with reputational cover and allowing us to behave like jerks with impunity:
buff.ly/jBnVNmM
The internet insulates us, providing us with reputational cover and allowing us to behave like jerks with impunity:
buff.ly/jBnVNmM
Ritual power
Research by Demiroglu & @xygalatas.bsky.social finds framing an activity as a ritual—vs utilitarian—significantly reduces perceived difficulty and increases happiness ratings, suggesting rituals induce effort reappraisal:
buff.ly/fuzHacE
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/cyIzMI9
Research by Demiroglu & @xygalatas.bsky.social finds framing an activity as a ritual—vs utilitarian—significantly reduces perceived difficulty and increases happiness ratings, suggesting rituals induce effort reappraisal:
buff.ly/fuzHacE
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/cyIzMI9
December 4, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Ritual power
Research by Demiroglu & @xygalatas.bsky.social finds framing an activity as a ritual—vs utilitarian—significantly reduces perceived difficulty and increases happiness ratings, suggesting rituals induce effort reappraisal:
buff.ly/fuzHacE
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/cyIzMI9
Research by Demiroglu & @xygalatas.bsky.social finds framing an activity as a ritual—vs utilitarian—significantly reduces perceived difficulty and increases happiness ratings, suggesting rituals induce effort reappraisal:
buff.ly/fuzHacE
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/cyIzMI9
Current theories assume our brain gets smaller as we grow older, but that is only partly true.
Some parts of the brain get bigger with age in normal older adults, new research by @esterekuehn and colleagues finds. What does that mean for us?:
buff.ly/Zc7fA7k
Some parts of the brain get bigger with age in normal older adults, new research by @esterekuehn and colleagues finds. What does that mean for us?:
buff.ly/Zc7fA7k
December 4, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Current theories assume our brain gets smaller as we grow older, but that is only partly true.
Some parts of the brain get bigger with age in normal older adults, new research by @esterekuehn and colleagues finds. What does that mean for us?:
buff.ly/Zc7fA7k
Some parts of the brain get bigger with age in normal older adults, new research by @esterekuehn and colleagues finds. What does that mean for us?:
buff.ly/Zc7fA7k
“Natural” doesn’t automatically mean “healthier”
St. John's wort is indeed a ‘natural’ antidepressant.
But evidence of its effectiveness is mixed, and it interacts significantly with other medications, so beware, writes @clarissabrincat.bsky.social:
buff.ly/KgpRQw1
St. John's wort is indeed a ‘natural’ antidepressant.
But evidence of its effectiveness is mixed, and it interacts significantly with other medications, so beware, writes @clarissabrincat.bsky.social:
buff.ly/KgpRQw1
December 4, 2025 at 6:36 AM
“Natural” doesn’t automatically mean “healthier”
St. John's wort is indeed a ‘natural’ antidepressant.
But evidence of its effectiveness is mixed, and it interacts significantly with other medications, so beware, writes @clarissabrincat.bsky.social:
buff.ly/KgpRQw1
St. John's wort is indeed a ‘natural’ antidepressant.
But evidence of its effectiveness is mixed, and it interacts significantly with other medications, so beware, writes @clarissabrincat.bsky.social:
buff.ly/KgpRQw1
On the one hand, we are told robots will take all the jobs, but on the other, at the same time, plenty of jobs that could relatively easily be automated are not.
How come?
@cpaxton.bsky.social looks for answers:
buff.ly/lmRYgRj
How come?
@cpaxton.bsky.social looks for answers:
buff.ly/lmRYgRj
December 3, 2025 at 9:22 PM
On the one hand, we are told robots will take all the jobs, but on the other, at the same time, plenty of jobs that could relatively easily be automated are not.
How come?
@cpaxton.bsky.social looks for answers:
buff.ly/lmRYgRj
How come?
@cpaxton.bsky.social looks for answers:
buff.ly/lmRYgRj
It’s not a new proposal, but when grumpy economist John Cochrane puts his weight behind it, you take note.
Abolish income tax.
Replace it with consumption tax:
buff.ly/SXQfMg8
Abolish income tax.
Replace it with consumption tax:
buff.ly/SXQfMg8
December 3, 2025 at 7:51 PM
It’s not a new proposal, but when grumpy economist John Cochrane puts his weight behind it, you take note.
Abolish income tax.
Replace it with consumption tax:
buff.ly/SXQfMg8
Abolish income tax.
Replace it with consumption tax:
buff.ly/SXQfMg8
Thoughtful thread by @aleximas.bsky.social on the potential of AI-driven automation for disrupting the labour market, and how to anticipate it:
buff.ly/PWYhkap
buff.ly/PWYhkap
December 3, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Thoughtful thread by @aleximas.bsky.social on the potential of AI-driven automation for disrupting the labour market, and how to anticipate it:
buff.ly/PWYhkap
buff.ly/PWYhkap
That our brain evolves over time is unsurprising, but did you know it happens in discrete spurts?
The main turning points are at around age 9, 32, 66, and 83:
www.popsci.com/health/brain...
The main turning points are at around age 9, 32, 66, and 83:
www.popsci.com/health/brain...
December 3, 2025 at 5:35 PM
That our brain evolves over time is unsurprising, but did you know it happens in discrete spurts?
The main turning points are at around age 9, 32, 66, and 83:
www.popsci.com/health/brain...
The main turning points are at around age 9, 32, 66, and 83:
www.popsci.com/health/brain...
RCT by @gemmaaltinger.bsky.social et al suggests that physicians who are offered multiple alternatives to a treatment (vs just one alternative) are more likely to choose a superior one → presenting multiple alternatives may improve clinical decision-making:
buff.ly/3aNxJYf
buff.ly/3aNxJYf
December 3, 2025 at 4:09 PM
RCT by @gemmaaltinger.bsky.social et al suggests that physicians who are offered multiple alternatives to a treatment (vs just one alternative) are more likely to choose a superior one → presenting multiple alternatives may improve clinical decision-making:
buff.ly/3aNxJYf
buff.ly/3aNxJYf
Unlike in other primates, in Bonobos it’s the females that rule the troop—control mating and get the first pick of food, while males wait for their turn.
This despite the fact they are less bulky and brawny than the males.
How do they do it?
buff.ly/PKRqhQL
This despite the fact they are less bulky and brawny than the males.
How do they do it?
buff.ly/PKRqhQL
December 3, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Unlike in other primates, in Bonobos it’s the females that rule the troop—control mating and get the first pick of food, while males wait for their turn.
This despite the fact they are less bulky and brawny than the males.
How do they do it?
buff.ly/PKRqhQL
This despite the fact they are less bulky and brawny than the males.
How do they do it?
buff.ly/PKRqhQL
Cognitive bias or social dynamics are widely seen as contributing to extraordinary beliefs.
Review by @eselster.bsky.social & @manvir.bsky.social suggests a 3rd factor—experience, and sets out 3 pathways by which it can shape such beliefs:
buff.ly/lidc8Hc
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/jLH2yPw
Review by @eselster.bsky.social & @manvir.bsky.social suggests a 3rd factor—experience, and sets out 3 pathways by which it can shape such beliefs:
buff.ly/lidc8Hc
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/jLH2yPw
December 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Cognitive bias or social dynamics are widely seen as contributing to extraordinary beliefs.
Review by @eselster.bsky.social & @manvir.bsky.social suggests a 3rd factor—experience, and sets out 3 pathways by which it can shape such beliefs:
buff.ly/lidc8Hc
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/jLH2yPw
Review by @eselster.bsky.social & @manvir.bsky.social suggests a 3rd factor—experience, and sets out 3 pathways by which it can shape such beliefs:
buff.ly/lidc8Hc
TL;DR:🧵https://buff.ly/jLH2yPw
The endowment effect—overvaluing something merely because we possess it—means we resist losing it.
That applies to old, unused garments and fiscal policy alike—we strongly object to any attempts to remove or reduce benefits, tax breaks, subsidies etc:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
That applies to old, unused garments and fiscal policy alike—we strongly object to any attempts to remove or reduce benefits, tax breaks, subsidies etc:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
December 3, 2025 at 9:18 AM
The endowment effect—overvaluing something merely because we possess it—means we resist losing it.
That applies to old, unused garments and fiscal policy alike—we strongly object to any attempts to remove or reduce benefits, tax breaks, subsidies etc:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
That applies to old, unused garments and fiscal policy alike—we strongly object to any attempts to remove or reduce benefits, tax breaks, subsidies etc:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Ons buikgevoel speelt een grotere rol in onze beslissingen dan we soms vermoeden—we laten ons leiden door overtuigingen of wishful thinking, en negeren evidentie.
Zelfs bij begrotingsmaatregels.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting;
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Zelfs bij begrotingsmaatregels.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting;
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
December 3, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Ons buikgevoel speelt een grotere rol in onze beslissingen dan we soms vermoeden—we laten ons leiden door overtuigingen of wishful thinking, en negeren evidentie.
Zelfs bij begrotingsmaatregels.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting;
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Zelfs bij begrotingsmaatregels.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting;
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Plants turn sunlight into energy using chlorophyll through photosynthesis.
Could a fungus in Chernobyl have evolved the ability to do the same with ionizing radiation using melanin through a hypothesized process of radiosynthesis?
www.sciencealert.com/chernobyl-fu...
HT @docgrawitch
Could a fungus in Chernobyl have evolved the ability to do the same with ionizing radiation using melanin through a hypothesized process of radiosynthesis?
www.sciencealert.com/chernobyl-fu...
HT @docgrawitch
December 3, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Plants turn sunlight into energy using chlorophyll through photosynthesis.
Could a fungus in Chernobyl have evolved the ability to do the same with ionizing radiation using melanin through a hypothesized process of radiosynthesis?
www.sciencealert.com/chernobyl-fu...
HT @docgrawitch
Could a fungus in Chernobyl have evolved the ability to do the same with ionizing radiation using melanin through a hypothesized process of radiosynthesis?
www.sciencealert.com/chernobyl-fu...
HT @docgrawitch
You could say that @annakaharris.bsky.social’s views on consciousness are not quite what you’d call mainstream.
@adamfrank4.bsky.social poses 6 questions to try to establish the background and origins of those views:
buff.ly/yT4sdoE
@adamfrank4.bsky.social poses 6 questions to try to establish the background and origins of those views:
buff.ly/yT4sdoE
December 2, 2025 at 9:17 PM
You could say that @annakaharris.bsky.social’s views on consciousness are not quite what you’d call mainstream.
@adamfrank4.bsky.social poses 6 questions to try to establish the background and origins of those views:
buff.ly/yT4sdoE
@adamfrank4.bsky.social poses 6 questions to try to establish the background and origins of those views:
buff.ly/yT4sdoE
Sometimes our gut is more influential in our decision making than evidence and reasoning.
Or is it more accurate to say our gut *always* drives our decisions—occasionally overruled by reasoning?
In any case, we can see it in governments too:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Or is it more accurate to say our gut *always* drives our decisions—occasionally overruled by reasoning?
In any case, we can see it in governments too:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
December 2, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Sometimes our gut is more influential in our decision making than evidence and reasoning.
Or is it more accurate to say our gut *always* drives our decisions—occasionally overruled by reasoning?
In any case, we can see it in governments too:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Or is it more accurate to say our gut *always* drives our decisions—occasionally overruled by reasoning?
In any case, we can see it in governments too:
buff.ly/OMlEGcf
Study by Medvedev et al finds money is a stronger motivator than psychological interventions in the US and the UK than in China and Mexico (where social norm interventions were more cost-effective than monetary incentives), India and South Africa:
buff.ly/GJZp90N
buff.ly/GJZp90N
December 2, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Study by Medvedev et al finds money is a stronger motivator than psychological interventions in the US and the UK than in China and Mexico (where social norm interventions were more cost-effective than monetary incentives), India and South Africa:
buff.ly/GJZp90N
buff.ly/GJZp90N
Afgelopen week heerste zowel in België als in het VK de begrotingskoorts.
Ook bekeken door een gedragseconomische bril is dat een interessant spektakel—zowel bij de excellenties als bij de burger.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Ook bekeken door een gedragseconomische bril is dat een interessant spektakel—zowel bij de excellenties als bij de burger.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
December 2, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Afgelopen week heerste zowel in België als in het VK de begrotingskoorts.
Ook bekeken door een gedragseconomische bril is dat een interessant spektakel—zowel bij de excellenties als bij de burger.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Ook bekeken door een gedragseconomische bril is dat een interessant spektakel—zowel bij de excellenties als bij de burger.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, De psychologie van begroting:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Recent research about psychose related delusions finds (a) 16 additional delusion themes (including fear of poisoning); (b) significant cultural variation in delusions; and (c) a ‘social gradient’—delusions tend to be about socially close people:
buff.ly/wiTy3zc
buff.ly/wiTy3zc
December 2, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Recent research about psychose related delusions finds (a) 16 additional delusion themes (including fear of poisoning); (b) significant cultural variation in delusions; and (c) a ‘social gradient’—delusions tend to be about socially close people:
buff.ly/wiTy3zc
buff.ly/wiTy3zc
Stress?
The discrepancy between the breathless headlines about a crisis and survey data over the years stresses credibility, for sure.
But why are largely consistent, moderate numbers framed as a crisis?
Matt Grawitch points at commercial interests:
buff.ly/RbP77f0
The discrepancy between the breathless headlines about a crisis and survey data over the years stresses credibility, for sure.
But why are largely consistent, moderate numbers framed as a crisis?
Matt Grawitch points at commercial interests:
buff.ly/RbP77f0
December 2, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Stress?
The discrepancy between the breathless headlines about a crisis and survey data over the years stresses credibility, for sure.
But why are largely consistent, moderate numbers framed as a crisis?
Matt Grawitch points at commercial interests:
buff.ly/RbP77f0
The discrepancy between the breathless headlines about a crisis and survey data over the years stresses credibility, for sure.
But why are largely consistent, moderate numbers framed as a crisis?
Matt Grawitch points at commercial interests:
buff.ly/RbP77f0
Is a country’s market orientation associated with higher or lower homicide rates? Competing theories exist.
Research by Pridemore and Rogers across 88 nations found a negative and significant association, with substantively meaningful effect size:
buff.ly/NmpnqMD
Research by Pridemore and Rogers across 88 nations found a negative and significant association, with substantively meaningful effect size:
buff.ly/NmpnqMD
December 2, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Is a country’s market orientation associated with higher or lower homicide rates? Competing theories exist.
Research by Pridemore and Rogers across 88 nations found a negative and significant association, with substantively meaningful effect size:
buff.ly/NmpnqMD
Research by Pridemore and Rogers across 88 nations found a negative and significant association, with substantively meaningful effect size:
buff.ly/NmpnqMD
Amid Schopenhauer's pessimism is valuable insight, writes @leonscafe31—acclaim and rewards don’t in themselves prove our worth, and are not necessary to define us.
Recognition means nothing if it is not deserved—we can feel proud of merely deserving fame:
buff.ly/UTdCL0y
Recognition means nothing if it is not deserved—we can feel proud of merely deserving fame:
buff.ly/UTdCL0y
December 2, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Amid Schopenhauer's pessimism is valuable insight, writes @leonscafe31—acclaim and rewards don’t in themselves prove our worth, and are not necessary to define us.
Recognition means nothing if it is not deserved—we can feel proud of merely deserving fame:
buff.ly/UTdCL0y
Recognition means nothing if it is not deserved—we can feel proud of merely deserving fame:
buff.ly/UTdCL0y