koenfucius
@koenfucius.bsky.social
Accidental behavioural economist
koenfucius.substack.com
koenfucius.substack.com
Pinned
Blogged: How our prosperity is based on ignorance
Our economy is built on the enigmatic concept of the economic surplus: the win-win of trade, making both buyer and seller better off. But this surplus relies on mutual ignorance, which is under threat...
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Our economy is built on the enigmatic concept of the economic surplus: the win-win of trade, making both buyer and seller better off. But this surplus relies on mutual ignorance, which is under threat...
buff.ly/SurWHY3
The beliefs that morality is god-given, built on religious foundations, or that it is rooted in absolute moral truths are reassuring but false, argues @page_eco.
Instead, moral rules are the rules of the Game of Life—neither Good nor Right, but Seemly:
buff.ly/GXFW4Ut
Instead, moral rules are the rules of the Game of Life—neither Good nor Right, but Seemly:
buff.ly/GXFW4Ut
December 10, 2025 at 12:22 PM
The beliefs that morality is god-given, built on religious foundations, or that it is rooted in absolute moral truths are reassuring but false, argues @page_eco.
Instead, moral rules are the rules of the Game of Life—neither Good nor Right, but Seemly:
buff.ly/GXFW4Ut
Instead, moral rules are the rules of the Game of Life—neither Good nor Right, but Seemly:
buff.ly/GXFW4Ut
Why is there such diversity in fictional stories, why do some become popular, how did they emerge and spread, and how do different story elements cluster together?
Research by Dubourg et al explores the psychological drivers of storytelling:
buff.ly/NzpsZfV
Research by Dubourg et al explores the psychological drivers of storytelling:
buff.ly/NzpsZfV
December 10, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Why is there such diversity in fictional stories, why do some become popular, how did they emerge and spread, and how do different story elements cluster together?
Research by Dubourg et al explores the psychological drivers of storytelling:
buff.ly/NzpsZfV
Research by Dubourg et al explores the psychological drivers of storytelling:
buff.ly/NzpsZfV
Every commercial transaction is a win-win, sharing the economic surplus—which exists only because of mutual ignorance—between buyer and seller.
If sellers discover individual customers’ willingness to pay and set individual prices, this is under threat:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
If sellers discover individual customers’ willingness to pay and set individual prices, this is under threat:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
December 10, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Every commercial transaction is a win-win, sharing the economic surplus—which exists only because of mutual ignorance—between buyer and seller.
If sellers discover individual customers’ willingness to pay and set individual prices, this is under threat:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
If sellers discover individual customers’ willingness to pay and set individual prices, this is under threat:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Niet alle beslissingen kunnen worden gereduceerd tot afwegingen van kosten en baten.
Meer keuzes dan we vermoeden kunnen zelfs helemaal niet op die manier worden gemaakt.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, Ver voorbij de afweging:
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
Meer keuzes dan we vermoeden kunnen zelfs helemaal niet op die manier worden gemaakt.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, Ver voorbij de afweging:
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
December 10, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Niet alle beslissingen kunnen worden gereduceerd tot afwegingen van kosten en baten.
Meer keuzes dan we vermoeden kunnen zelfs helemaal niet op die manier worden gemaakt.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, Ver voorbij de afweging:
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
Meer keuzes dan we vermoeden kunnen zelfs helemaal niet op die manier worden gemaakt.
Mijn @apache.be stukje, Ver voorbij de afweging:
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
Brr—winter is arriving in the northern hemisphere.
But why do we shiver when we’re cold?
(TL;DR: to get warmer)
buff.ly/LMDk5IJ
But why do we shiver when we’re cold?
(TL;DR: to get warmer)
buff.ly/LMDk5IJ
December 10, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Brr—winter is arriving in the northern hemisphere.
But why do we shiver when we’re cold?
(TL;DR: to get warmer)
buff.ly/LMDk5IJ
But why do we shiver when we’re cold?
(TL;DR: to get warmer)
buff.ly/LMDk5IJ
A price is a signal wrapped in an incentive…
…but does that hold true for the Contemporary-Art Market, with its somewhat surreal economics?
buff.ly/eOKbEDU
…but does that hold true for the Contemporary-Art Market, with its somewhat surreal economics?
buff.ly/eOKbEDU
December 9, 2025 at 9:17 PM
A price is a signal wrapped in an incentive…
…but does that hold true for the Contemporary-Art Market, with its somewhat surreal economics?
buff.ly/eOKbEDU
…but does that hold true for the Contemporary-Art Market, with its somewhat surreal economics?
buff.ly/eOKbEDU
Hey, Mr Base Man
How many millilitres in 2.4 litres? Easy peasy.
How many minutes in 2.4 hours? 🤔😬
When you think in base 10 but you’re in base 60, things are challenging:
buff.ly/2zJe604
How many millilitres in 2.4 litres? Easy peasy.
How many minutes in 2.4 hours? 🤔😬
When you think in base 10 but you’re in base 60, things are challenging:
buff.ly/2zJe604
December 9, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Hey, Mr Base Man
How many millilitres in 2.4 litres? Easy peasy.
How many minutes in 2.4 hours? 🤔😬
When you think in base 10 but you’re in base 60, things are challenging:
buff.ly/2zJe604
How many millilitres in 2.4 litres? Easy peasy.
How many minutes in 2.4 hours? 🤔😬
When you think in base 10 but you’re in base 60, things are challenging:
buff.ly/2zJe604
Large replication by Sprecher finds robust evidence of both a perceived and an actual liking gap—in a first interaction with someone, people believe the stranger likes them less
• than they like the stranger
• than the stranger actually does
buff.ly/UQt4UEO
• than they like the stranger
• than the stranger actually does
buff.ly/UQt4UEO
December 9, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Large replication by Sprecher finds robust evidence of both a perceived and an actual liking gap—in a first interaction with someone, people believe the stranger likes them less
• than they like the stranger
• than the stranger actually does
buff.ly/UQt4UEO
• than they like the stranger
• than the stranger actually does
buff.ly/UQt4UEO
The aim of sellers who use big data and algorithms to discover how much each individual buyer is willing to pay and set prices accordingly is to appropriate the entire economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance,
Could they destroy the economy?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Could they destroy the economy?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
December 9, 2025 at 5:35 PM
The aim of sellers who use big data and algorithms to discover how much each individual buyer is willing to pay and set prices accordingly is to appropriate the entire economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance,
Could they destroy the economy?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Could they destroy the economy?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
We denken wel eens dat beslissingen nemen eigenlijk fundamenteel draait om het rationeel afwegen van kosten en baten van verschillende opties.
Maar is dat wel zo?
Mijn @apache_be stukje legt een ietwat complexer verhaal bloot—Ver voorbij de afweging :
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
Maar is dat wel zo?
Mijn @apache_be stukje legt een ietwat complexer verhaal bloot—Ver voorbij de afweging :
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
December 9, 2025 at 4:09 PM
We denken wel eens dat beslissingen nemen eigenlijk fundamenteel draait om het rationeel afwegen van kosten en baten van verschillende opties.
Maar is dat wel zo?
Mijn @apache_be stukje legt een ietwat complexer verhaal bloot—Ver voorbij de afweging :
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
Maar is dat wel zo?
Mijn @apache_be stukje legt een ietwat complexer verhaal bloot—Ver voorbij de afweging :
buff.ly/E8Yzjkz
The lifting of the 2-child cap on child benefit in the UK can help combat child poverty—children in families with 4+ children faced double the rates of poverty in 2006—but the problem runs deeper, @plattlucinda discusses:
buff.ly/6m00l39
buff.ly/6m00l39
December 9, 2025 at 12:22 PM
The lifting of the 2-child cap on child benefit in the UK can help combat child poverty—children in families with 4+ children faced double the rates of poverty in 2006—but the problem runs deeper, @plattlucinda discusses:
buff.ly/6m00l39
buff.ly/6m00l39
Eliminating stressors is a futile approach for handling stress, but what about building resilience?
Matt Grawitch’s second post on stress strips away the hype and the illusion that resilience is like a muscle you can train, and checks what is left of it:
buff.ly/7K2fU91
Matt Grawitch’s second post on stress strips away the hype and the illusion that resilience is like a muscle you can train, and checks what is left of it:
buff.ly/7K2fU91
December 9, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Eliminating stressors is a futile approach for handling stress, but what about building resilience?
Matt Grawitch’s second post on stress strips away the hype and the illusion that resilience is like a muscle you can train, and checks what is left of it:
buff.ly/7K2fU91
Matt Grawitch’s second post on stress strips away the hype and the illusion that resilience is like a muscle you can train, and checks what is left of it:
buff.ly/7K2fU91
Love is a commitment device—but not in the classic sense, research by Gelbart et al suggests.
It does not so much disincentivize the subject’s pursuing alternatives as disincentivize the alternatives’ pursuing the subject:
buff.ly/VJlKCmS
It does not so much disincentivize the subject’s pursuing alternatives as disincentivize the alternatives’ pursuing the subject:
buff.ly/VJlKCmS
December 9, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Love is a commitment device—but not in the classic sense, research by Gelbart et al suggests.
It does not so much disincentivize the subject’s pursuing alternatives as disincentivize the alternatives’ pursuing the subject:
buff.ly/VJlKCmS
It does not so much disincentivize the subject’s pursuing alternatives as disincentivize the alternatives’ pursuing the subject:
buff.ly/VJlKCmS
Research using the Rock-Paper-Scissors game finds players who lost retained information from previous rounds, while this is not the case for winners:
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
December 9, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Research using the Rock-Paper-Scissors game finds players who lost retained information from previous rounds, while this is not the case for winners:
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
buff.ly/YRnVyGi
Unraveling the plot of a tale of two halves.
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
December 9, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Unraveling the plot of a tale of two halves.
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
The Moon’s other side is very different from the side we can see from Earth—rock samples brought back recently by a Chines probe reveal hidden lunar history:
buff.ly/LKS3IwV
We are hardwired to sing − and it’s good for us, too:
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
December 8, 2025 at 7:51 PM
We are hardwired to sing − and it’s good for us, too:
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
buff.ly/ZARyAZY
(Posting this from my weekly choir practice—just before the warmup 😎🎶)
Over the centuries, Marcus Aurelius has persuaded countless people to join the Stoics.
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
December 8, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Over the centuries, Marcus Aurelius has persuaded countless people to join the Stoics.
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
But did he ever manage to convince his children?
buff.ly/WPvq2gG
To persuade people, don’t write a pamphlet—write a story that makes people feel “a sledgehammer has come down with 20 times the force”.
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
December 8, 2025 at 5:35 PM
To persuade people, don’t write a pamphlet—write a story that makes people feel “a sledgehammer has come down with 20 times the force”.
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
Charles Dickens showed the way, writes Dave Trott:
buff.ly/1NREb2w
Linear models FTW
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
December 8, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Linear models FTW
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
Paper by Dawes from 1979 argues that even *improper* linear models (ie with predictor weights that are determined by non-optimal methods—equal unit weights suffice) outperform ‘clinical’ intuition:
buff.ly/rODIEn6
The entire economy relies on trade, in which a seller’s Willingness-To-Accept is less than a buyer’s Willingness-To-Pay, and the difference is shared.
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
December 8, 2025 at 12:22 PM
The entire economy relies on trade, in which a seller’s Willingness-To-Accept is less than a buyer’s Willingness-To-Pay, and the difference is shared.
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
For this to work, both sides must be ignorant of the other’s willingness.
What if one side isn’t?
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Has @anilseth.bsky.social identified an underrated reason why “AI consciousness” isn’t imminent?
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
December 8, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Has @anilseth.bsky.social identified an underrated reason why “AI consciousness” isn’t imminent?
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
Humans—unlike AI—never get stuck in infinite loops.
Our existence is rooted in time and progressing entropy. Both may be consciousness prerequisites:
buff.ly/8PxbtRs
Research by Eldadi et al finds highly educated people
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
December 8, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Research by Eldadi et al finds highly educated people
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
•strongly believe extraterrestrial intelligent life exists
•vastly underestimate peers’ beliefs (pluralistic ignorance)
•underestimate the *intensity* of experts’ beliefs
•resist belief updating
buff.ly/4oTiWQr
The midlife crisis—one of the most enduring ideas in psychology—is more myth than reality.
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
December 8, 2025 at 6:53 AM
The midlife crisis—one of the most enduring ideas in psychology—is more myth than reality.
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
But new research has pinpointed what makes midlife tough for somem—income, much more than age.
buff.ly/PcLfoVS
Toenail infections are common (especially in the elderly), and remarkably hard to combat both through oral and topical treatments.
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
December 8, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Toenail infections are common (especially in the elderly), and remarkably hard to combat both through oral and topical treatments.
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
A new approach based on—if all things—hydrogen sulphide (known by its rotten egg smell) shows promise:
buff.ly/YUlMqLR
If you’ve never heard Mozart’s well-known 40th Symphony G minor (the first movement, Allegro molto) as a piano duet, here’s a chance (performed by Anh Khôi and Xuân An).
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
December 7, 2025 at 9:24 PM
If you’ve never heard Mozart’s well-known 40th Symphony G minor (the first movement, Allegro molto) as a piano duet, here’s a chance (performed by Anh Khôi and Xuân An).
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s