koenfucius
@koenfucius.bsky.social
Accidental behavioural economist
koenfucius.substack.com
koenfucius.substack.com
Pinned
Blogged: How our prosperity is based on ignorance
Our economy is built on the enigmatic concept of the economic surplus: the win-win of trade, making both buyer and seller better off. But this surplus relies on mutual ignorance, which is under threat...
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Our economy is built on the enigmatic concept of the economic surplus: the win-win of trade, making both buyer and seller better off. But this surplus relies on mutual ignorance, which is under threat...
buff.ly/SurWHY3
If you’ve never heard Mozart’s well-known 40th Symphony G minor (the first movement, Allegro molto) as a piano duet, here’s a chance (performed by Anh Khôi and Xuân An).
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
December 7, 2025 at 9:24 PM
If you’ve never heard Mozart’s well-known 40th Symphony G minor (the first movement, Allegro molto) as a piano duet, here’s a chance (performed by Anh Khôi and Xuân An).
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
The utter genius of the work shines through so much clearer, don’t you think?
youtu.be/KJZ0JAFSN9s
A medieval murder map, showing where homicides took place in three 14thC English cities—London, Oxford and York reveals some surprising geographic similarities with today’s maps:
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
December 7, 2025 at 7:51 PM
A medieval murder map, showing where homicides took place in three 14thC English cities—London, Oxford and York reveals some surprising geographic similarities with today’s maps:
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
buff.ly/tXuKlWP
Sellers are starting to use big data and algorithms to discover how much each individual buyer is willing to pay.
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
December 7, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Sellers are starting to use big data and algorithms to discover how much each individual buyer is willing to pay.
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
This risks obliterating the economic surplus, which relies on mutual ignorance, with consequences more far-reaching than we imagine:
buff.ly/SurWHY3
Human society reflects a tradeoff between flexible norms for moral judgment (allowing for legitimate excuses but open to exploitation), and rigid norms (mandating cooperation even when ad hoc reasoning could yield better outcomes), Lie-Panis et al argue:
buff.ly/BErDp3R
buff.ly/BErDp3R
December 7, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Human society reflects a tradeoff between flexible norms for moral judgment (allowing for legitimate excuses but open to exploitation), and rigid norms (mandating cooperation even when ad hoc reasoning could yield better outcomes), Lie-Panis et al argue:
buff.ly/BErDp3R
buff.ly/BErDp3R
Some behaviours can easily be turned into habits—just repeat until it sticks.
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
December 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Some behaviours can easily be turned into habits—just repeat until it sticks.
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
Others are much harder.
Why the difference?
psyche.co/ideas/why-so...
Het begrotingscircus heeft, zowel in het VK als in België, inmiddels zijn biezen gepakt en is uit het nieuws verdwenen.
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
December 7, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Het begrotingscircus heeft, zowel in het VK als in België, inmiddels zijn biezen gepakt en is uit het nieuws verdwenen.
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Mijn @apache_be stukje, De psychologie van begroting werpt een blik op de gedragseconomische fenomenen die ermee gepaard gaan—ICYMI:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
How do you measure someone’s ‘moral goodness’?
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
December 7, 2025 at 9:18 AM
How do you measure someone’s ‘moral goodness’?
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
With great difficulty, argue @jessiesun.bsky.social & @eschwitz.bsky.social—it’s not even certain there is such a general trait, and the usual measures (eg self-reports, behavioural observation) are problematic:
buff.ly/a9jgI75
HT @bxjaeger.bsky.social
New research suggests fluid intelligence—the capacity to solve new problems and recognize patterns—is associated with the ability to map objects or items of information, capturing how they relate to each other in space or conceptually:
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
December 7, 2025 at 7:53 AM
New research suggests fluid intelligence—the capacity to solve new problems and recognize patterns—is associated with the ability to map objects or items of information, capturing how they relate to each other in space or conceptually:
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
buff.ly/DHoRjsv
via @psypost.bsky.social
Super-resolution light (as opposed to electron) microscopes allow us to look inside living cells.
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
December 7, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Super-resolution light (as opposed to electron) microscopes allow us to look inside living cells.
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
And things become visible that have never been seen before:
buff.ly/nq0Qem7
December 7, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Anticipating the age of information overload?
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
December 6, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Anticipating the age of information overload?
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
In 1990, Japanese artist Yoshinak Satoh made this animation, Paper, from news clippings—musically underpinned by an excerpt from Steve Reich’s Different Trains (released 2 years earlier).
Kind of hypnotic:
buff.ly/uePI8bm
The momentary lapses of attention we experience after a sleep deprived night is when the brain catches up on the maintenance and flushing out it would otherwise have done during proper sleep, explains @halmacmc:
buff.ly/O9blMv1
buff.ly/O9blMv1
December 6, 2025 at 7:51 PM
The momentary lapses of attention we experience after a sleep deprived night is when the brain catches up on the maintenance and flushing out it would otherwise have done during proper sleep, explains @halmacmc:
buff.ly/O9blMv1
buff.ly/O9blMv1
What is the appeal of advent calendars?
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
December 6, 2025 at 6:19 PM
What is the appeal of advent calendars?
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
It’s the happiness of anticipation—as an antidote to the urge of instant gratification:
buff.ly/T2lil12
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could reliably distinguish AI generated from human generated text?
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
December 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could reliably distinguish AI generated from human generated text?
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
Well it seems we can, research using a wide selection of shirt and longer txts suggests, with false positive/negative rates respectively zero % and around 2-4%:
buff.ly/R4zb2jC
Fascinating research by Rose et al tracks how children map causal verbs to different (proximal and distal) causes across development:
buff.ly/WRUN9t8
buff.ly/WRUN9t8
December 6, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Fascinating research by Rose et al tracks how children map causal verbs to different (proximal and distal) causes across development:
buff.ly/WRUN9t8
buff.ly/WRUN9t8
Trading is the engine of prosperity—it makes both seller and buyer better off.
This win-win is rooted in the economic surplus. But what will happen to this when sellers use big data and algorithms to discover individual customers’ willingness to pay?
koenfucius.substack.com/p/how-our-pr...
This win-win is rooted in the economic surplus. But what will happen to this when sellers use big data and algorithms to discover individual customers’ willingness to pay?
koenfucius.substack.com/p/how-our-pr...
December 6, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Trading is the engine of prosperity—it makes both seller and buyer better off.
This win-win is rooted in the economic surplus. But what will happen to this when sellers use big data and algorithms to discover individual customers’ willingness to pay?
koenfucius.substack.com/p/how-our-pr...
This win-win is rooted in the economic surplus. But what will happen to this when sellers use big data and algorithms to discover individual customers’ willingness to pay?
koenfucius.substack.com/p/how-our-pr...
“Only Kafka would appreciate a fuel-economy system that makes small fuel-efficient cars hard to sell and giant trucks easy.”
Alex Tabarrok on a wonderful illustration of how it is often unintended *incentives* that lead to unintended consequences:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
Alex Tabarrok on a wonderful illustration of how it is often unintended *incentives* that lead to unintended consequences:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
December 6, 2025 at 11:35 AM
“Only Kafka would appreciate a fuel-economy system that makes small fuel-efficient cars hard to sell and giant trucks easy.”
Alex Tabarrok on a wonderful illustration of how it is often unintended *incentives* that lead to unintended consequences:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
Alex Tabarrok on a wonderful illustration of how it is often unintended *incentives* that lead to unintended consequences:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...
Het endowment effect beschrijft hoe we vast plegen te houden aan wat we hebben, ook al zouden we beter af zijn zonder…
…en evenzeer waarom we ons heftig verzetten tegen begrotingsmaatregels die verworven rechten aantasten.
Mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
…en evenzeer waarom we ons heftig verzetten tegen begrotingsmaatregels die verworven rechten aantasten.
Mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
December 6, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Het endowment effect beschrijft hoe we vast plegen te houden aan wat we hebben, ook al zouden we beter af zijn zonder…
…en evenzeer waarom we ons heftig verzetten tegen begrotingsmaatregels die verworven rechten aantasten.
Mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
…en evenzeer waarom we ons heftig verzetten tegen begrotingsmaatregels die verworven rechten aantasten.
Mijn @apache_be stukje:
buff.ly/iXXZZAR
Even Einstein hoped that one day, we might be able to formulate a coherent Theory of Everything.
But that may forever be wishful thinking, argues @startswithabang.bsky.social:
buff.ly/HXSUUHd
But that may forever be wishful thinking, argues @startswithabang.bsky.social:
buff.ly/HXSUUHd
December 6, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Even Einstein hoped that one day, we might be able to formulate a coherent Theory of Everything.
But that may forever be wishful thinking, argues @startswithabang.bsky.social:
buff.ly/HXSUUHd
But that may forever be wishful thinking, argues @startswithabang.bsky.social:
buff.ly/HXSUUHd
The benefit of having two eyes and two ears is pretty clear, but why do we have two nostrils, and not one breathing hole?
Fascinating insights!
buff.ly/8JGofJU
Fascinating insights!
buff.ly/8JGofJU
December 6, 2025 at 6:36 AM
The benefit of having two eyes and two ears is pretty clear, but why do we have two nostrils, and not one breathing hole?
Fascinating insights!
buff.ly/8JGofJU
Fascinating insights!
buff.ly/8JGofJU
Not everyone recalls their dreams.
New research identifies characteristics that are associated with more likely dream recall—a positive attitude towards dreaming, high levels of mind wandering, and longer periods spent in lighter stages of sleep:
buff.ly/NeiqrsK
New research identifies characteristics that are associated with more likely dream recall—a positive attitude towards dreaming, high levels of mind wandering, and longer periods spent in lighter stages of sleep:
buff.ly/NeiqrsK
December 5, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Not everyone recalls their dreams.
New research identifies characteristics that are associated with more likely dream recall—a positive attitude towards dreaming, high levels of mind wandering, and longer periods spent in lighter stages of sleep:
buff.ly/NeiqrsK
New research identifies characteristics that are associated with more likely dream recall—a positive attitude towards dreaming, high levels of mind wandering, and longer periods spent in lighter stages of sleep:
buff.ly/NeiqrsK
Researchers calculate the actual magnitude of Corporate America’s Carbon Emissions externality.
It’s big—$87 Trillion, exceeding the market capitalization of the companies involved:
buff.ly/zRT727B
It’s big—$87 Trillion, exceeding the market capitalization of the companies involved:
buff.ly/zRT727B
December 5, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Researchers calculate the actual magnitude of Corporate America’s Carbon Emissions externality.
It’s big—$87 Trillion, exceeding the market capitalization of the companies involved:
buff.ly/zRT727B
It’s big—$87 Trillion, exceeding the market capitalization of the companies involved:
buff.ly/zRT727B
Can we—in academia—separate bias from ideology?
Carol Tavris casts a skeptical eye over the question, concluding we should “focus our energies issue by issue, domain by domain, ever aware of our own myside biases, and to hell with labels”
buff.ly/pzKw5nO
Carol Tavris casts a skeptical eye over the question, concluding we should “focus our energies issue by issue, domain by domain, ever aware of our own myside biases, and to hell with labels”
buff.ly/pzKw5nO
December 5, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Can we—in academia—separate bias from ideology?
Carol Tavris casts a skeptical eye over the question, concluding we should “focus our energies issue by issue, domain by domain, ever aware of our own myside biases, and to hell with labels”
buff.ly/pzKw5nO
Carol Tavris casts a skeptical eye over the question, concluding we should “focus our energies issue by issue, domain by domain, ever aware of our own myside biases, and to hell with labels”
buff.ly/pzKw5nO
Low resting heart rate (RHR) is a strong biological correlate for antisocial/conventional criminal behaviour.
For white-collar crime, too?
No, research by Ling et al finds, but high RHR is associated with *lower* risk of white-collar offending:
buff.ly/wPv1e2j
For white-collar crime, too?
No, research by Ling et al finds, but high RHR is associated with *lower* risk of white-collar offending:
buff.ly/wPv1e2j
December 5, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Low resting heart rate (RHR) is a strong biological correlate for antisocial/conventional criminal behaviour.
For white-collar crime, too?
No, research by Ling et al finds, but high RHR is associated with *lower* risk of white-collar offending:
buff.ly/wPv1e2j
For white-collar crime, too?
No, research by Ling et al finds, but high RHR is associated with *lower* risk of white-collar offending:
buff.ly/wPv1e2j
Christmas—peak time of economic inefficiency, when both time and money are spectacularly misallocated resources.
Can giving a kidney as a gift recess the situation?
Great post by Tim Harford:
buff.ly/kcpIJYn
Can giving a kidney as a gift recess the situation?
Great post by Tim Harford:
buff.ly/kcpIJYn
December 5, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Christmas—peak time of economic inefficiency, when both time and money are spectacularly misallocated resources.
Can giving a kidney as a gift recess the situation?
Great post by Tim Harford:
buff.ly/kcpIJYn
Can giving a kidney as a gift recess the situation?
Great post by Tim Harford:
buff.ly/kcpIJYn