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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 2h

I missed that I needed to run his projection separately because of the injury, so that's the issue there.

Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 12h

Yes to Turner. Here are the minutes projections: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

2025-26 NBA minutes projections

docs.google.com

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 23h

I'm certainly concerned about their injuries too, but the outlook is a lot different if you start from "fifth-best point differential in the league" rather than "eighth-best record in the West."

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

If these projections are sleeping on the Celtics, what is the rest of the world?

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

One issue with those is they are not position-adjusted so all three of those guys are, plus Josh Minott based on a very optimistmic SCHOENE projection. And then the four rotation holdovers (Brown, White, Pritchard and Hauser).

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

Certainly those factors don't seem to have helped Philadelphia! Injuries are the most difficult factor to model but their old guys are all projected for similar minutes to recent seasons aside from Butler's hold-in with Miami.

Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

Think I'm going to make that a fixture.

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

That was probably the single most surprising number to me.

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

Just wait until you see the "everything goes right" version

Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 1d

My annual stats-based win projections for all 30 teams are out today, with a comparison to over-under totals. Free to all (as all my work now is): www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...

Win projections for all 30 NBA teams: How we see the East, West playing out

ESPN NBA analyst Kevin Pelton unveils his annual win projections for all 30 teams. Where does your team land?

www.espn.com

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 3d

Stewie foresaw articles a year into the future. What a soothsayer!

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 3d

That's a lot of context to distill into 280 characters, and it's certainly possible the rising tide of women's basketball would have made Unrivaled possible either way, but it's no coincidence that Breanna Stewart was a vocal prioritization critic and played a key role in Unrivaled.

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 3d

Historically, most WNBA players played in Europe during the lengthy offseason. The league wanted them back for training camp and now requires experienced players to report for the start. That made it less lucrative and opened the door for American alternatives.
bsky.app/profile/debo...

Deborah @deborah-c.bsky.social · 3d

Could you explain a little for those of use who haven't entirely been paying attention?

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 3d

There's a delicious irony in WNBA sources complaining about Unrivaled's role in CBA negotiations when the league exists in no small part because of the prioritization rules the WNBA insisted on during the current CBA. Be careful what you wish for ...

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 3d

Yes, both coming soon!

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 4d

Mentioned in our Game 2 preview that the Mercury left money on the table in terms of offensive rebounding. Not today. www.espn.com/wnba/story/_...

WNBA Finals Game 2 live tracker: Can Mercury even series vs. Aces?

Can Las Vegas take a 2-0 lead before the series heads to Phoenix? We're tracking Game 2 right here.

www.espn.com

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 4d

Maybe she means it in a "third Pelton brother" sense?

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

Our live updates from Game 1 of Aces-Mercury now feature my takeaways on how Las Vegas came back to win and how Phoenix can adjust to the Aces' zone, including stats from ESPN Research tracking: www.espn.com/wnba/story/_...

Your guide to Aces' win over Mercury in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals

Las Vegas took the opening game of the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals in history. Here's how it happened.

www.espn.com

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

Becky Hammon going to the zone in the second half tonight reminds me a bit of her doing so in Game 1 of the 2022 WNBA Finals against another Alyssa Thomas team, after which I wrote a story on how WNBA teams were using zones: www.espn.com/wnba/story/_...

How much will Aces' zone defense disrupt Sun in WNBA Finals?

With the Spurs, Becky Hammon saw how effective an occasional zone defense can be, and felt it could set the Aces apart and "mix it up a little bit."

www.espn.com

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

Wild but true

Richard Cohen @richardcohen.bsky.social · 6d

That, surely, is the very first flagrant foul of the entire WNBA playoffs. Well, first one recorded as such in the books. #WNBA

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

Same, honestly!

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

I'll be contributing my thoughts on Game 1 of Aces-Mercury in our live coverage of the game: www.espn.com/wnba/story/_...

WNBA Finals Game 1 live tracker: Updates on Mercury vs. Aces series opener

The Mercury and Aces tip off the first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in history. Follow all the live action here.

www.espn.com

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

It's definitely dating when I learned about poker.

Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 6d

Can we call a 10-2 lead in Las Vegas a Doyle Brunson?

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Kevin Pelton @kpelton.bsky.social · 7d

I think I was slightly misremembering the rule as allowing the qualifying offer to be signed after that date only with the team's consent, but it's actually that the offer expires on Oct. 1 unless the team chooses to extend the date.

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