Kristi Raik
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik
@kristiraik.bsky.social
5.2K followers 200 following 66 posts
Director, International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn. Adjunct Professor, University of Turku. Feeling home in Estonia, Finland and at sea.
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jan 30
Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet?
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...
Europe’s Four Different Ways of Handling Trump
From vacuous moralizers to pragmatic engagers, European governments are divided once again.
foreignpolicy.com
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
foreignpolicy.com
Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · Sep 16
Finland avoided full subjugation to Moscow thanks to a combination of the broader geopolitical context and its own defense preparedness—not by being friendly toward the Soviets.
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
foreignpolicy.com
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Sep 17
"It is Europe’s weakness & hesitation that encourage Russia and allow Putin to believe that he can achieve a better outcome by continuing the war. Europeans must define their long-term commitments so that Russia’s calculation changes & continuation of war no longer pays off." @kristiraik.bsky.social
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Sep 16
Finland’s history offers a warning, not a model.

Kristi Raik explains how Ukraine differs from Finland – and why trading land for peace is unlikely to bring lasting stability. @foreignpolicy.com @kristiraik.bsky.social
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
foreignpolicy.com
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Sep 3
Thank you for great discussions @bruegel.org!
Much remains to be done to strengthen European defence.
bruegel.org Bruegel @bruegel.org · Sep 3
❗ LIVE NOW: The future of Europe’s defence
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks

🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
diplomaatia.bsky.social
Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · Aug 18
Euroopa vajab lähinädalatel kiiret edu kolme hiiglasliku ülesandega, märgib RKK direktor Kristi Raik:

- Ukraina positsiooni tugevdamine
- sõja hinna kasvatamine Venemaale
- Trumpi veenmine, et Putini nõudmiste järgimine oleks hävituslik Euroopale ja häbiväärne USA-le.

@kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik: Anchorage sunnib Euroopat käiku vahetama – Diplomaatia
Trumpi ja Putini kohtumise järgne esmamulje oli mõningane kergendus, olgugi et varjutatud iiveldavalt sõbralikust kohtlemisest, mis sõjakurjategijale osaks sai. Vähemalt diile ei tehtud. Ent mida enam...
diplomaatia.ee
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Aug 12
Trump lies without caring about facts, just pretending he can create reality by his statements (e.g. "Russia wants peace" - yeah, Putin says it and I say it, so it must be true and if peace doesn't come about, it is somebody else's fault).
Guess who is a stronger negotiator. /2
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Aug 12
This piece describes one of the key differences between Putin and Trump:
Putin lies, while knowing exactly the facts and distorting them in a carefully calculated way (e.g. "Russia wants peace" - sure, if all its impossible demands are met). 1/

www.ft.com/content/a701...
‘Manipulative’ Putin vs ‘emotional’ Trump: what past summits reveal about Alaska meeting
Russian leader’s technique is to lie and play for time, warns former French president François Hollande
www.ft.com
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Aug 11
Europe has a vital interest in Ukraine's sovereignty and in defending against the Russian threat. Trump must be convinced that pressuring for a bad deal won’t bring peace but will increase the risk of a larger war, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social.

➡️ ERR: news.err.ee/1609767261/k...
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Aug 9
Donald Trumpi ja Vladimir Putini planeeritava kohtumise eel seisab Euroopa silmitsi olukorraga, kus kaks suurriiki hakkavad läbi rääkima mitte ainult Ukraina, vaid tõenäoliselt ka laiemalt Euroopa julgeoleku tuleviku üle, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social ERRi portaalis.

www.err.ee/1609766826/k...
Kristi Raik: suurriikide mäng Euroopa saatusega
Kui USA ja Venemaa läbirääkimiste tulemus on see, et Ukrainale esitatakse "võta või jäta" lahendus, siis ei saa selle tingimused kindlasti olema Ukrainale soodsad. Miski ei viita sellele, et Donald Tr...
www.err.ee
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Aug 8
Venemaa jaoks on Läänemeri kahtlemata strateegiliselt ülimalt oluline. Pilt on aga viimase 35 aastaga radikaalselt muutunud. Venemaa mõju Läänemere regioonis on nõrgem kui eelneva 300 a jooksul. @kristiraik.bsky.social

🎦 #Arvamusfestival "Kilud vs karud" ülekanne:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=54cb...
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Jul 28
The EU’s credibility depends on its ability to raise the cost of war for Russia & secure a European future for Ukraine — ensuring Russia cannot win its brutal war of aggression.

To defend itself, Europe needs Ukraine on its side, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social in a commentary for @tepsa.bsky.social
A More Autonomous Europe Will Need Ukraine On Its Side - ICDS
Under the second Trump administration, US foreign policy – its underlying principles, vision of the global order and relations with both allies and adversaries – is profoundly changing. This implies a...
icds.ee
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jul 28
One more week to go!
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jul 28
On my usual summer sailing trip, this time including Naissaar, Tallinn, Porkkala, Örö. Traces of past presence of Soviet/Russian army in all of them, with tragic memories behind idyllic scenes.
Can't help thinking when sailing freely around the Baltic Sea that freedom is really worth defending.
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jul 2
Many in the first group like to talk about European strategic autonomy, but it is the second group that is making a real effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on the U.S.
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jul 2
Europe has become divided between countries that think the NATO Hague commitment to spend 5% (or rather, 3,5%) on defence was about pleasing Trump and therefore don’t want to do it, and countries that believe it is in their own interest to spend 5% (or at least 3,5) and therefore take it seriously.
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
diplomaatia.bsky.social
Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · Jun 25
Kaitsekulude tõstmine on vajalik Euroopa enda julgeoleku, mitte Trumpile meeldimise pärast.

Töö selle nimel, et kõik Euroopa NATO riigid mõistaksid ühtemoodi, miks ja kui palju on vaja kaitseks panustada, jätkub pärast tippkohtumist. @kristiraik.bsky.social

📺 ERR: www.err.ee/1609729008/r...
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · Jun 21
📣 ICDS is delighted to be part of the NATO Public Forum as an institutional partner during next week’s NATO Summit in The Hague.

More information about the Forum (and registration to attend online) 👇

#NATOsummit #WeAreNATO @kristiraik.bsky.social
NATO Summit: join the Public Forum online - ICDS
The NATO Public Forum is a public event jointly organized by NATO and the Government of the Netherlands with civil society organisations, taking place during the Summit meetings of NATO’s Heads of Sta...
icds.ee
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
dgap.org
DGAP @dgap.org · Jun 18
How to strenghten the 🇪🇺 pillar of #NATO? In their #PolicyBrief, @kristiraik.bsky.social & Marcin Terlikowski give recommendations on 3⃣ different levels:

1⃣ Strategic: More than ever, 🇪🇺 allies need a common strategic approach to the 🇺🇸 – based on the understanding that 🇷🇺 poses a ... /1
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
diplomaatia.bsky.social
Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · Jun 17
NATO ajaloos on ennegi ette tulnud kriise, kuid mitte selliseid, mida transatlantilised suhted praegu üle elavad.

Eurooplastel tuleb karmis julgeolekukeskkonnas end kokku võtta, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social RKK uudiskirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Lisaks nädalakirjas ⤵
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: NATO tippkohtumine 24.-25. juunil: kaitsekulud ja USA, Iraan ja Venemaa, liberaalne maailmakord, Ukraina õppetunnid – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 25. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
diplomaatia.ee
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jun 4
Some of the keen supporters of autonomy still resist the need for much higher defence spending, as if Europe could become independent simply by detaching itself from the US, while lacking the necessary means to defend itself against threats that have only become more severe. END
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jun 4
However, moving towards 5% defence spending is also about Europe gradually becoming less dependent on the US. To reduce dependency, Europe MUST spend more on defence (of course, also spend smartly).
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jun 4
Trump wants Europeans to spend 5% of GDP on defence – so, getting to this commitment at the upcoming NATO summit is about pleasing Trump and keeping the Americans engaged in Europe. (btw Trump doesn’t like to speak about why this level of defence spending is necessary – what is the threat?)
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jun 4
Now the shared threat perception is stronger, probably stronger than ever when it comes to Russia as a long-term threat to all Europe. But I’m afraid it is still not sufficiently strong to have a coherent approach to the US.
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jun 4
The deeper problem was that Europe lacked a common threat perception – against what/whom should we be able to defend ourselves (more) autonomously? The Russian threat was often excluded from the debate and replaced by unrealistic ideas about negotiating a revised European security order with Russia.
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kristiraik.bsky.social
Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · Jun 4
In reality, Europe lacks the capacity to be autonomous. Building it up – above all, the lacking military means – will take years.
When the debate on strategic autonomy became active during Trump’s first term, the biggest proponents of the term failed to present a credible idea of what it takes.
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