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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 3h

The last 50 years remind us: cheap money isn’t normal, it’s cyclical.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 4h

Credit card delinquencies just hit their highest level since 2010.

Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent.

Those with assets will be fine.

Those with debt are getting crushed.

The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 4h

Gold is behaving like a meme stock, not a safe-haven.

www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 1d

The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report ticked down slightly from 55.1 to 55. Readings below 80 have historically aligned with recessions. Pair that with 1-year inflation expectations still elevated at 4.8%, and you have a classic stagflation warning signal.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 1d

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 1d

When the next major crash hits, there will be signs, and this is one of them.

The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701.

When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 1d

When money moves into utilities, it’s rarely random.

They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive.

Check out my latest report 👇

www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16d

BofA expects one more cut of -0.25% in October and then -0.75% in the second half of 2026 for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18d

Valuation Market Impact

Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x.
Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns.

Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18d

Valuations Compress When Jobs Break

When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x.

Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18d

Unemployment Rate is a key cycle signal:
• Early warning: >4.5%
• Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows

When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18d

Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy.
• First alert: 260k
• Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average

Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18d

Job Openings (JOLTS) are slipping fast.
• First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M
• A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession

When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 23d

Light earnings week.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 28d

New cycle tights in credit spreads reinforce the all-clear for equity markets.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 15

Netflix's homepage in 1999, one year after it launched.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 15

Las Vegas tourist activity is down ~13%, the largest drop since COVID.

If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 13

The bottom 50% of US households hold just 2.5% of total wealth.

History shows when the Fed cuts rates at record highs, stocks hit even more records 12 months later.

Asset owners will celebrate, the wealth gap will stretch even further.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 9

S&P 500 $SPX futures are pressing into the apex of a rising wedge.

Price has been grinding higher, but RSI has been trending lower since July, a textbook case of bearish divergence.

A breakout is possible, but risk of a downside resolution is rising.

$ES_F

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 9

Remember NFTs? Me neither.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 8

Zooming out: over the past month the 10Y-2Y spread has bull-steepened +9 bps and the 10Y-3M +15 bps.

In modern history, a sharp bull-steepening following a deep inversion has only occurred heading into recessions, making this one of the most important dynamics in markets today.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 2

Rates are green, Dollar is green, Oil is green ➡️ that’s rising inflation expectations, exactly what I’ve been saying for weeks.

$XLE just broke a ~9-month downtrend. Relative strength vs $SPX is still a little weak, but RSI is bullish.

If the breakout sticks, energy leadership could be next.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Sep 2

Bear Chart Porn Incoming:

Job openings keep leading the stock market lower.

Every cycle tells the same story: labor weakens, stocks follow.

2008. 2020. And now ???

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Aug 24

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · Aug 21

So I’m supposed to believe the Fed is about to cut rates when credit spreads are sitting at multi-month tights?

Cutting here = loosening financial conditions just as inflation pressures re-accelerate.

That’s a policy mistake in the making and likely the only cut of 2025.

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