Latin American Elections
@latamerelection.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Political Science
Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/elections-in-latin-america-9781538189030/
Elections in Latin America: Campaigns, Voters, and Institutions: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/elections-in-latin-america-9781538189030/
Well Honduras is at the top of the New York Times homepage. That's probably not a good sign.
December 1, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Well Honduras is at the top of the New York Times homepage. That's probably not a good sign.
The state of play in Honduras: with 55.9% of the vote in, Tito Asfura has a *very* slim lead over Salvador Nasralla. Moncada of the incumbent Libre party is getting crushed. No congressional results yet. High possibility of contested result b/w Asfura and Nasralla. No concession from Moncada yet.
December 1, 2025 at 3:04 PM
The state of play in Honduras: with 55.9% of the vote in, Tito Asfura has a *very* slim lead over Salvador Nasralla. Moncada of the incumbent Libre party is getting crushed. No congressional results yet. High possibility of contested result b/w Asfura and Nasralla. No concession from Moncada yet.
Not a lot to be excited about for tomorrow's election in Honduras.
November 29, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Not a lot to be excited about for tomorrow's election in Honduras.
Reposted by Latin American Elections
So the US is fighting against drug trafficking by freeing a guy convicted of using the presidency to facilitate large-scale drug trafficking. Makes total sense. What JOH ally got in Trump's ear to set this up? www.pbs.org/newshour/wor...
Trump says he plans to pardon former Honduran president serving drug trafficking sentence
President Donald Trump said Friday that he will be pardoning former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who in 2024 was convicted for drug trafficking and weapons charges and sentenced to 45 ye...
www.pbs.org
November 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
So the US is fighting against drug trafficking by freeing a guy convicted of using the presidency to facilitate large-scale drug trafficking. Makes total sense. What JOH ally got in Trump's ear to set this up? www.pbs.org/newshour/wor...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
NEW first online and open access article‼️
It analyses the impact of meaningful ideological choices (or the lack thereof) on demographic-based electoral divisions in Latin America.
Check it out!
By Matthew Singer
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
It analyses the impact of meaningful ideological choices (or the lack thereof) on demographic-based electoral divisions in Latin America.
Check it out!
By Matthew Singer
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Elite Ideological Differentiation and Demographic-Based Voting in Latin America - Matthew Singer, 2025
Electoral divisions along class, religious, and ethnic lines differ in strength across countries and within them over time. I argue that the lack of meaningful ...
journals.sagepub.com
November 27, 2025 at 3:12 PM
NEW first online and open access article‼️
It analyses the impact of meaningful ideological choices (or the lack thereof) on demographic-based electoral divisions in Latin America.
Check it out!
By Matthew Singer
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
It analyses the impact of meaningful ideological choices (or the lack thereof) on demographic-based electoral divisions in Latin America.
Check it out!
By Matthew Singer
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
Peru became the world leader in recall referendums. What drove it—and what did it do to democracy? Beyond innovation: power games!
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Recall referendums in Peruvian municipalities: a political weapon for bad losers or an instrument of accountability?
Between 1997 and 2013, more than 5000 recall referendums were activated against democratically elected authorities from 747 Peruvian municipalities (45.5% of all municipalities). This makes Peru th...
www.tandfonline.com
November 26, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Peru became the world leader in recall referendums. What drove it—and what did it do to democracy? Beyond innovation: power games!
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Bolsonaro & Trump have been political doppelgängers, including parallel attempts to overturn an election through a coup. So it’s remarkable to see contrasting headlines today: in one case, the continuation of autocratic populism; in the other, the start of a long prison sentence.
November 26, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Bolsonaro & Trump have been political doppelgängers, including parallel attempts to overturn an election through a coup. So it’s remarkable to see contrasting headlines today: in one case, the continuation of autocratic populism; in the other, the start of a long prison sentence.
Don't do coups, kids.
apnews.com/article/braz...
apnews.com/article/braz...
Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro begins 27-year prison sentence for coup attempt
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro started on Tuesday to serve his 27-year prison sentence for leading a coup attempt designed to keep him in office after losing the 2022 presidential elections...
apnews.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Don't do coups, kids.
apnews.com/article/braz...
apnews.com/article/braz...
Two weeks from now:
November 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Two weeks from now:
Reposted by Latin American Elections
My colleague, Dr. Vahid Abedini, was illegally detained by ICE on Saturday. He is currently being held without a court date in sight, despite being in the country legally. Please spread the word! We must ensure his due process rights are upheld. www.oudaily.com/news/ou-prof...
OU College of International Studies professor reportedly arrested by ICE
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reportedly arrested an OU professor at Will Rogers International Airport Saturday.
www.oudaily.com
November 24, 2025 at 11:05 PM
My colleague, Dr. Vahid Abedini, was illegally detained by ICE on Saturday. He is currently being held without a court date in sight, despite being in the country legally. Please spread the word! We must ensure his due process rights are upheld. www.oudaily.com/news/ou-prof...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
NEW First online article 🔔
#openaccess
How does the populist radical right use local office to pursue national political ambitions? #Peru #Populism #politicalambition
@eljorobado.bsky.social @zsofiabocskay.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
#openaccess
How does the populist radical right use local office to pursue national political ambitions? #Peru #Populism #politicalambition
@eljorobado.bsky.social @zsofiabocskay.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Urbi et Orbi: Local Power and National Aspiration in Peru's Populist Radical Right - Zsofia Bocskay, Carlos Meléndez, 2025
How does the populist radical right (PRR) use local office to pursue national political ambitions? This article analyzes the case of Rafael López Aliaga, mayor ...
journals.sagepub.com
November 23, 2025 at 6:13 AM
NEW First online article 🔔
#openaccess
How does the populist radical right use local office to pursue national political ambitions? #Peru #Populism #politicalambition
@eljorobado.bsky.social @zsofiabocskay.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
#openaccess
How does the populist radical right use local office to pursue national political ambitions? #Peru #Populism #politicalambition
@eljorobado.bsky.social @zsofiabocskay.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
“Moraes said Bolsonaro’s electronic ankle monitor had been tampered with at 12.08am on Saturday. That suggested “the convict had planned to break the ankle monitor in order to ensure the success of his escape, aided by the confusion caused by the protest”
Brazilian police arrest Bolsonaro amid suspicions he was about to flee
Politician reportedly taken from his villa into custody at a federal police base about 7 miles from presidential palace
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
“Moraes said Bolsonaro’s electronic ankle monitor had been tampered with at 12.08am on Saturday. That suggested “the convict had planned to break the ankle monitor in order to ensure the success of his escape, aided by the confusion caused by the protest”
Good article on Trump's Latin America policies. But I do hope historians don't adopt the "Donroe Doctrine" name. (And to be pedantic, it's more akin to the Roosevelt Corollary than the original Monroe doctrine.)
The Western Hemisphere has become the United States’ central theater abroad.
My analysis on the "Donroe Doctrine" and how it has upended politics up and down the Americas.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/w...
My analysis on the "Donroe Doctrine" and how it has upended politics up and down the Americas.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/w...
The ‘Donroe Doctrine’: Trump’s Bid to Control the Western Hemisphere
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Good article on Trump's Latin America policies. But I do hope historians don't adopt the "Donroe Doctrine" name. (And to be pedantic, it's more akin to the Roosevelt Corollary than the original Monroe doctrine.)
Not sure what stage of nativism we've reached when they're trying to make us scared of gauchos and llaneros crossing the border with their 🐄.
In which Bessent blames $10/lb beef on immigrants who “brought their cattle with them” and rants about how their dirty cows got all our noble American cows sick with screwworm.
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
BARTIROMO: He's expecting $10 a pound ground beef. What's your reaction?
BESSENT: Maria, the beef market is a very specialized market. It goes in long cycles. This is the perfect storm. Again, something we inherited.
BESSENT: Maria, the beef market is a very specialized market. It goes in long cycles. This is the perfect storm. Again, something we inherited.
November 16, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Not sure what stage of nativism we've reached when they're trying to make us scared of gauchos and llaneros crossing the border with their 🐄.
My only Chile prediction: don’t be surprised to be surprised. By law, there have been no polls for 15 days. Voting is compulsory, drawing in more swing voters. And the right is divided across 3 major candidates - easy to imagine voters switching their choice between these three in the past 2 weeks.
What to Know About Chile’s Election on Sunday
www.nytimes.com
November 16, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My only Chile prediction: don’t be surprised to be surprised. By law, there have been no polls for 15 days. Voting is compulsory, drawing in more swing voters. And the right is divided across 3 major candidates - easy to imagine voters switching their choice between these three in the past 2 weeks.
Chile’s election is this Sunday. Most voters see crime and migration as the two top problems. Crime (some of it linked to Tren de Aragua) has risen – though homicides have been trending down. And immigrants now make up 10% of Chile’s population. 🧵
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com
November 14, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Chile’s election is this Sunday. Most voters see crime and migration as the two top problems. Crime (some of it linked to Tren de Aragua) has risen – though homicides have been trending down. And immigrants now make up 10% of Chile’s population. 🧵
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
As difficult as it would be, I can see a chance of successfully doing a regime change in 🇻🇪. But not by Trump’s administration of incompetents - there’s just zero chance they wouldn’t fuck it up so bad it would make de-Baathification look like masterstroke.
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
What Democracy in Venezuela Would Require
Toppling a dictatorship is easier than building a functional state to take its place.
www.theatlantic.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:43 PM
As difficult as it would be, I can see a chance of successfully doing a regime change in 🇻🇪. But not by Trump’s administration of incompetents - there’s just zero chance they wouldn’t fuck it up so bad it would make de-Baathification look like masterstroke.
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Today I learned the exact playlist the U.S. military blasted at the Vatican embassy in Panama to get Noriega to surrender. 🎸
November 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Today I learned the exact playlist the U.S. military blasted at the Vatican embassy in Panama to get Noriega to surrender. 🎸
Reposted by Latin American Elections
“An iron fist! That’s what we need! Like a Bukele!”: the ultra-conservative politician José Antonio Kast closes in on the presidency in Chile with a Trumpian pitch on crime & immigration www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
‘We need an iron fist’: the Trump-inspired favourite to win Chile’s election
José Antonio Kast, 59, is appealing to voters with a hard-right pitch on crime and immigration
www.theguardian.com
November 12, 2025 at 11:19 AM
“An iron fist! That’s what we need! Like a Bukele!”: the ultra-conservative politician José Antonio Kast closes in on the presidency in Chile with a Trumpian pitch on crime & immigration www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
Great to see our paper in Scientific Data. Thanks to cooperation with @michael-weiss.bsky.social, we have assembled a dataset (over 30k obs.) covering all Latin American legislators since the 1980s. This will help comparative analyses of gender, turnover, careers...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 12, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Great to see our paper in Scientific Data. Thanks to cooperation with @michael-weiss.bsky.social, we have assembled a dataset (over 30k obs.) covering all Latin American legislators since the 1980s. This will help comparative analyses of gender, turnover, careers...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
Honduras Election Scenarios:
Scenario A: Contested Election
Scenario B: Contested Election
boz.substack.com/p/honduras-e...
Scenario A: Contested Election
Scenario B: Contested Election
boz.substack.com/p/honduras-e...
Honduras election scenarios - November 2025
Scenario A: Contested election. Scenario B: Contested election.
boz.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Honduras Election Scenarios:
Scenario A: Contested Election
Scenario B: Contested Election
boz.substack.com/p/honduras-e...
Scenario A: Contested Election
Scenario B: Contested Election
boz.substack.com/p/honduras-e...
Reposted by Latin American Elections
I'm thrilled that my book, Unity through Particularism: How Electoral Reforms Influence Parties and Legislative Behavior, is now available for pre-order through CUP and Amazon!
Let me know if you'd like an electronic copy for your class, and I'll send it to you!
www.cambridge.org/us/universit...
Let me know if you'd like an electronic copy for your class, and I'll send it to you!
www.cambridge.org/us/universit...
August 22, 2025 at 3:48 PM
I'm thrilled that my book, Unity through Particularism: How Electoral Reforms Influence Parties and Legislative Behavior, is now available for pre-order through CUP and Amazon!
Let me know if you'd like an electronic copy for your class, and I'll send it to you!
www.cambridge.org/us/universit...
Let me know if you'd like an electronic copy for your class, and I'll send it to you!
www.cambridge.org/us/universit...
Virginia: It looks to me like Democrats are going to flip about 13 Republican seats in the 100-seat House of Delegates. (Districts #22, 30, 41, 57, 64, 66, 69, 71, 73, 75, 82, 86, 89).
This would expand their seat share from 51 to 64.
It's a blue wave. 🌊
This would expand their seat share from 51 to 64.
It's a blue wave. 🌊
November 5, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Virginia: It looks to me like Democrats are going to flip about 13 Republican seats in the 100-seat House of Delegates. (Districts #22, 30, 41, 57, 64, 66, 69, 71, 73, 75, 82, 86, 89).
This would expand their seat share from 51 to 64.
It's a blue wave. 🌊
This would expand their seat share from 51 to 64.
It's a blue wave. 🌊
Sic Semper Tyrannis
November 5, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Sic Semper Tyrannis
In Virginia (my home state), the resistance vote is strong. See the margin shifts from the 2021 to 2025 gubernatorial race (with 40% of votes in), from AP. Congrats to @abigailspanberger.com on the landslide!
November 5, 2025 at 1:07 AM
In Virginia (my home state), the resistance vote is strong. See the margin shifts from the 2021 to 2025 gubernatorial race (with 40% of votes in), from AP. Congrats to @abigailspanberger.com on the landslide!