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leftiestats.bsky.social
Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
@leftiestats.bsky.social
www.statsforlefties.com

Stats and election analysis from a progressive, Marxist perspective. Run by Eleanora Folan (she/her). All opinions my own. Trans woman 🏳️‍⚧️
Pinned
Israel is a violently racist nation packed with bloodthirsty child killers, and by allying with them Labour is directly complicit in the mass murder of tens of thousands of innocents.

This is simply a fact. Free Palestine.
📊 NEW | Reform lead by 6pts
‼️ Greens tied with Labour

➡️ REF – 26% (-2)
🔵 CON – 20% (+2)
🟢 GRN – 18% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 18% (-)
🟠 LD – 11% (-)

Via @LordAPolls, 13-17 Nov (+/- vs 20 Oct)
November 24, 2025 at 10:16 AM
📊 Voting intention amongst Jewish Brits:

🔴 LAB – 30% (-14)
🔵 CON – 28% (-4)
🟢 GRN – 18% (+9)
➡️ REF – 11% (+8)
🟠 LD – 9% (+1)

Via @jprinstitute, 8 Jun-20 Jul (+/- vs GE2024)
November 21, 2025 at 11:09 AM
📊 NEW | As Labour launches crackdowns on refugees and trans people, Starmer's approval hits new low.

✅ Favourable – 19% (-2)
❌ Unfavourable – 73% (+1)

Via YouGov, 16-17 Nov (+/- vs 14 Oct)
November 20, 2025 at 11:26 AM
📊 NEW | Ex-North of Tyne Mayor Jamie Driscoll has confirmed he will not be joining "Your Party".

Driscoll posted on Facebook that the embattled party, founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, "does not sit with my view of high standards in public life".
November 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
📊 NEW | Greens hit 17% with YouGov

➡️ REF: 27% (+1)
🔴 LAB: 19% (-)
🟢 GRN: 17% (+2)
🔵 CON: 17% (-1)
🟠 LD: 13% (-1)

Via @YouGov, 16-17 Nov (+/- vs 9-10 Nov)
November 18, 2025 at 10:11 AM
📊 NEW | As Labour announces fresh crackdown on refugees, their approval falls to an all-time low.

✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)

Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
November 17, 2025 at 2:16 PM
📊 NEW | Greens surge to 15% with Ipsos

➡️ REF – 33% (-1)
🔴 LAB – 18% (-4)
🔵 CON – 16% (+2)
🟢 GRN – 15% (+3)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @IpsosUK, November (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
November 16, 2025 at 11:05 AM
📊 POLL | Reform lead Greens by 16pts

➡️ REF – 33% (-)
🟢 GRN – 17% (-1)
🔵 CON – 16% (-)
🔴 LAB – 15% (-)
🟠 LD – 11% (-)

Via @findoutnowUK, 12 Nov (+/- vs 5-6 Nov)
November 15, 2025 at 9:25 PM
📊 POLL | Reform lead by 11pts
Projected majority = 46 seats

➡️ REF – 31% (-)
🔴 LAB – 20% (+2)
🔵 CON – 19% (-)
🟠 LD – 14% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 12% (-)

Via @Moreincommon_, 7-10 Nov (+/- vs 3 Nov)
November 12, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Brianna Ghey was not killed by her phone, she was murdered because she was trans. Abusing her memory to justify heavy-handed acts of censorship that MPs have been desperate to impose for years is absolutely sickening
On Brianna's 19th birthday, this morning I joined @cheshirepcc.bsky.social and the Brianna Ghey Legacy Project Phone Free Education campaign at the launch at Jodrell Bank of a new £150k initiative to make Cheshire the first county in the UK where ALL state high schools have lockable phone pouches.
November 12, 2025 at 9:48 AM
🚨 NEW | Greens lead with young people (18-25)

🟢 GRN – 32% (+16)
🔴 LAB – 25% (-18)
➡️ REF – 20% (+7)
🔵 CON – 11% (-1)
🟠 LD – 9% (-3)

This is a proper weighted poll, not a subsample.

Via @Savanta_UK, 4-7 Nov (+/- vs Mar)
November 12, 2025 at 9:40 AM
📊 POLL | Reform lead by 13pts
‼️Labour plunge to third / Greens surge

➡️ REF – 32% (-3)
🔵 CON – 19% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 17% (-3)
🟢 GRN – 13% (+5)
🟠 LD – 13% (-1)

Via Freshwater Strategy, Nov 2025 (+/- vs 3-5 Oct)
November 11, 2025 at 4:40 PM
🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 13pts

➡️ REF – 33% (+3)
🔴 LAB – 20% (-)
🔵 CON – 17% (-1)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)
🟢 GRN – 11% (-1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 5-7 Nov (+/- vs 22-24 Oct)
November 9, 2025 at 4:28 PM
🖊️ ARTICLE | Reform rides high - but why?

Three years ago, Reform were polling 1%. Today they seem poised for a landslide GE win. How did this happen? And how did Labour fumble an easy layup so badly? Find out in my latest piece: www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october
Reform Rides High
Eleanora explains how Reform rocketed to the top of the polls.
statsforlefties.wordpress.com
November 7, 2025 at 7:53 PM
🚨 POLL | Reform lead, Greens 2nd

➡️ REF – 33% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 18% (+1)
🔵 CON – 16% (-)
🔴 LAB – 15% (-1)
🟠 LD – 11% (-1)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 5-6 Nov (+/- vs 29 Oct)
November 6, 2025 at 5:38 PM
🚨 NEW | Labour falls to 3rd place

➡️ REF – 31% (-2)
🔵 CON – 19% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 18% (-3)
🟠 LD – 13% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 12% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 31 Oct-3 Nov (+/- vs 27 Oct)
November 5, 2025 at 10:07 AM
🚨 NOWCAST | Reform to win majority

➡️ REF – 359 seats (+354)
🟠 LD – 83 seats (+11)
🔴 LAB – 71 seats (-339)
🔵 CON – 31 seats (-90)
🟡 SNP – 45 seats (+36)
🟢 GRN – 19 seats (+15)

This uses my NEW seat projection method.
November 4, 2025 at 5:53 PM
🚨 BREAKING | Greens rocket to **2nd place**

➡️ REF – 32% (-)
🟢 GRN – 17% (+2)
🔴 LAB – 16% (-)
🔵 CON – 16% (-1)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @findoutnowuk, 29 Oct (+/- vs 22 Oct)
October 30, 2025 at 5:03 PM
New York City polling averages:

🔵 Mamdani (D) - 48%
⚪️ Cuomo (I) - 32%
🔴 Sliwa (R) - 17%

Based on polls conducted in October 2025
October 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 12pts

➡️ REF – 33% (+2)
🔴 LAB – 21% (-1)
🔵 CON – 18% (-1)
🟠 LD – 12% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 11% (+1)

Via @moreincommon_, 24-27 Oct (+/- vs 17-20 Oct)
October 29, 2025 at 10:11 AM
🚨 NEW | Greens at 16%, 1pt shy of Labour

➡️ REF – 27% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 17% (-3)
🔵 CON – 17% (-)
🟢 GRN – 16% (+1)
🟠 LD – 15% (-)

Via @YouGov, 26-27 Oct (+/- vs 19-20 Oct)
October 28, 2025 at 9:40 AM
🚨 BREAKING | Greens surge to **17%**

➡️ REF – 28% (+1)
🔴 LAB – 18% (-4)
🔵 CON – 18% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 17% (+4)
🟠 LD – 11% (+1)

Via @LordAPolls, 16-20 Oct (+/- vs 11-15 Sep)
October 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
🚨 NEW | Poll points to SNP Holyrood MAJORITY

🟡 SNP – 66 seats (+2)
➡️ REF – 16 seats (+16)
🟢 GRN – 15 seats (+7)
🔴 LAB – 14 seats (-8)
🟠 LD – 9 seats (+5)
🔵 CON – 9 seats (-22)

My estimate based on @FindoutnowUK poll, 14 Oct
October 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
🚨 NEW | Left-winger Catherine Connolly WINS election for President of Ireland* in a landslide.

🔴 Connolly (IND) – 63.4%
🔵 Humphreys (FG) – 29.5%
🟢 Gavin (FF) – 7.1%

*Note: President of Ireland is the head of state but is NOT the head of government like in US/France etc.
October 25, 2025 at 7:45 PM
🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 15pts

➡️ REF – 32% (-)
🔵 CON – 17% (-)
🔴 LAB – 16% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 15% (-)
🟠 LD – 12% (-)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 22 Oct (+/- vs 15 Oct)
October 25, 2025 at 3:53 PM