The Leuthold Group
@leutholdgroup.bsky.social
Independent Institutional Financial Research
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
Disclosure: http://funds.leutholdgroup.com
Distributor: Quasar Distributors, LLC
After collapsing since 2023, the DJ Transports is suddenly on a tear, breaking to new highs and well-off R/S lows. This newfound vigor could signal broadening of stock leadership and more upside for equities overall. $DJT #StockTrends
February 13, 2026 at 5:04 PM
After collapsing since 2023, the DJ Transports is suddenly on a tear, breaking to new highs and well-off R/S lows. This newfound vigor could signal broadening of stock leadership and more upside for equities overall. $DJT #StockTrends
Of the S&P 500 Growth Index’s Top 10 stocks, only two deviate from the obvious theme: Berkshire Hathaway and Lilly. An allocation to this index is an explicit bet that mega-cap Tech, AI/cloud-computing will continue to dominate in 2026. #Mag7 #GrowthStocks
February 11, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Of the S&P 500 Growth Index’s Top 10 stocks, only two deviate from the obvious theme: Berkshire Hathaway and Lilly. An allocation to this index is an explicit bet that mega-cap Tech, AI/cloud-computing will continue to dominate in 2026. #Mag7 #GrowthStocks
S&P 500 Growth Index: Annual style-index rebalancing has further exacerbated its top-heavy concentration. Tech and Communications Services account for 65% of the total weight. If one counts "Mag 7" from Discretionary, Tech Titans account for 71% of the index. #GrowthStocks
February 10, 2026 at 4:31 PM
S&P 500 Growth Index: Annual style-index rebalancing has further exacerbated its top-heavy concentration. Tech and Communications Services account for 65% of the total weight. If one counts "Mag 7" from Discretionary, Tech Titans account for 71% of the index. #GrowthStocks
January’s small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly. But it ain't what it used to be. In recent decades, small caps have tended to post the best relative returns in Nov. and Dec. as managers perhaps front-run the "January Effect." $RUT $SPY
January 22, 2026 at 5:30 PM
January’s small-cap bounce is a well-known market anomaly. But it ain't what it used to be. In recent decades, small caps have tended to post the best relative returns in Nov. and Dec. as managers perhaps front-run the "January Effect." $RUT $SPY
After missing a Santa Claus Rally (by a whisker) a few weeks ago, another calendar anomaly is firing on all cylinders. Through last Friday, the $RUT had outperformed the S&P 500 in every trading session of 2026, leading to the largest “January Effect” (+6.5%) in recent history. $SPY #SmallCap
January 20, 2026 at 8:45 PM
After missing a Santa Claus Rally (by a whisker) a few weeks ago, another calendar anomaly is firing on all cylinders. Through last Friday, the $RUT had outperformed the S&P 500 in every trading session of 2026, leading to the largest “January Effect” (+6.5%) in recent history. $SPY #SmallCap
No "Santa Claus Rally”: The last 5 trading days of 2025 plus first 2 of ‘26 were a lump of coal. Since ‘72, $SPY returned +1.15% in this period vs. a 7-day avg of +0.19%. The results are spotty, but historically, if Santa doesn’t show up, the next year has been underwhelming. #Stocks
2025.IT
2025.It
January 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM
No "Santa Claus Rally”: The last 5 trading days of 2025 plus first 2 of ‘26 were a lump of coal. Since ‘72, $SPY returned +1.15% in this period vs. a 7-day avg of +0.19%. The results are spotty, but historically, if Santa doesn’t show up, the next year has been underwhelming. #Stocks
GS High Retail Sentiment (meme stocks) is another "exuberance group," like Unprofitable Tech and Highly Shorted indexes (but a much shorter history). It peaked sharply in 2021, quickly gave up all the gain, then drifted until this year, when it again melted up to a fresh high. #Meme #Sentiment
December 29, 2025 at 11:03 PM
GS High Retail Sentiment (meme stocks) is another "exuberance group," like Unprofitable Tech and Highly Shorted indexes (but a much shorter history). It peaked sharply in 2021, quickly gave up all the gain, then drifted until this year, when it again melted up to a fresh high. #Meme #Sentiment
Most shorted R3K names plunged during pandemic, surged 219% in ‘21 euphoria, then fully retreated, ceding all gains, moving sideways for yrs. In 2025, they again joined the melt-up (+126%) into the Nov. peak, just like Unprofitable Tech index. Overall, buying speculative stocks is a losing tactic.
December 26, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Most shorted R3K names plunged during pandemic, surged 219% in ‘21 euphoria, then fully retreated, ceding all gains, moving sideways for yrs. In 2025, they again joined the melt-up (+126%) into the Nov. peak, just like Unprofitable Tech index. Overall, buying speculative stocks is a losing tactic.
Based on the Manufacturing Sector's average hourly wage, one would need to work 204.4 hours to purchase a single S&P 500 unit (data through Q3-25). This lands in the 10th decile of the distribution (stocks most expensive), 1947 to date. $SPX #Wages
December 24, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Based on the Manufacturing Sector's average hourly wage, one would need to work 204.4 hours to purchase a single S&P 500 unit (data through Q3-25). This lands in the 10th decile of the distribution (stocks most expensive), 1947 to date. $SPX #Wages
Buying speculative names is a poor tactic and is apt to lag badly over a market cycle. Ex: Unprofitable Tech stagnated till 2020, soared 350% in the frothy '21 market, then sank to zero and stagnated for several yrs. In 2025, amid AI hype, it surged again (+143%) only to drop on the adverse AI news
2021.In
December 23, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Buying speculative names is a poor tactic and is apt to lag badly over a market cycle. Ex: Unprofitable Tech stagnated till 2020, soared 350% in the frothy '21 market, then sank to zero and stagnated for several yrs. In 2025, amid AI hype, it surged again (+143%) only to drop on the adverse AI news
Last decade's perennial bearishness toward U.S. Treasuries has continued in the 2020s. In fact, bond bears have grown even more emboldened the last few years, pushing net short positions to new extremes. #Treasuries #BondBears
December 22, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Last decade's perennial bearishness toward U.S. Treasuries has continued in the 2020s. In fact, bond bears have grown even more emboldened the last few years, pushing net short positions to new extremes. #Treasuries #BondBears
Cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron
December 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron
During the 2010s, the Copper/Gold ratio served as an effective gauge for economic trends and a dependable predictor of bond yield movements. However, since 2020, this relationship has broken down, as interest rates have become less correlated with business cycles. $GLD #MarketTrends
December 19, 2025 at 6:02 PM
During the 2010s, the Copper/Gold ratio served as an effective gauge for economic trends and a dependable predictor of bond yield movements. However, since 2020, this relationship has broken down, as interest rates have become less correlated with business cycles. $GLD #MarketTrends
Last week's slight edge of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 over the Cap-Weighted index revived the short-term trend since November lows, boosting optimism among active managers. Yet, 2025 is set to be another tough year for the EW $SPX. #StockMarket #Investing
December 18, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Last week's slight edge of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 over the Cap-Weighted index revived the short-term trend since November lows, boosting optimism among active managers. Yet, 2025 is set to be another tough year for the EW $SPX. #StockMarket #Investing
2010s vs 2020s: Term Premium usually tracks inflation outlooks; since 2020 it has repriced a new reality. Added to a worsened U.S. fiscal state & less foreign appetite, it appears the secular bond bull likely ended in 2020; probably one of the defining features of this decade. #Inflation
December 17, 2025 at 2:45 PM
2010s vs 2020s: Term Premium usually tracks inflation outlooks; since 2020 it has repriced a new reality. Added to a worsened U.S. fiscal state & less foreign appetite, it appears the secular bond bull likely ended in 2020; probably one of the defining features of this decade. #Inflation
Inflation 2010s vs. 2020s: Last decade, U.S. CPI > Fed’s 2% target ~40% of the time; Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index was higher than thought ~12% of the time. Since 2020, CPI >2% a stunning 83% of the time and ISI has been higher 59% of the time. #Inflation
December 15, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Inflation 2010s vs. 2020s: Last decade, U.S. CPI > Fed’s 2% target ~40% of the time; Citi U.S. Inflation Surprise Index was higher than thought ~12% of the time. Since 2020, CPI >2% a stunning 83% of the time and ISI has been higher 59% of the time. #Inflation
Last week $RUT and DJ Composite each rang a new high. Excellent action in Dow Transports (still 1-yr removed from its own all-time high) boosted the DJ Comp. A few more highs across these bellwethers soon, would go a long way alleviate our Technical anxiety. (Four of which are <1% away.)
December 11, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Last week $RUT and DJ Composite each rang a new high. Excellent action in Dow Transports (still 1-yr removed from its own all-time high) boosted the DJ Comp. A few more highs across these bellwethers soon, would go a long way alleviate our Technical anxiety. (Four of which are <1% away.)
Vastly superior performance of U.S. assets in the 2010s might have seemed impossible to repeat, but U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well this decade. 2020 to date, U.S. stocks +15.9% annl vs DM (+9.5%) and EM (+7.8%). U.S. bonds also ahead of global peers by 120 bps annually #InvestingTrends
December 10, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Vastly superior performance of U.S. assets in the 2010s might have seemed impossible to repeat, but U.S. exceptionalism is alive and well this decade. 2020 to date, U.S. stocks +15.9% annl vs DM (+9.5%) and EM (+7.8%). U.S. bonds also ahead of global peers by 120 bps annually #InvestingTrends
YTD composite earnings suggest widespread prosperity, lifting $SPX T12-mo EPS by 13.8%. But this growth has been as concentrated as the market's mega-cap leadership: Tech/Comm posted combined +29% avg growth vs. other 9 sectors’ collective +5% (barely matching gain in nominal GDP).
ex-Tech.Com
December 9, 2025 at 12:00 AM
YTD composite earnings suggest widespread prosperity, lifting $SPX T12-mo EPS by 13.8%. But this growth has been as concentrated as the market's mega-cap leadership: Tech/Comm posted combined +29% avg growth vs. other 9 sectors’ collective +5% (barely matching gain in nominal GDP).
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
November 13, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Nvidia's Oct. surge propelled the S&P 500 Top Ten Index (+5.4%) to its biggest monthly lead this year over $SPX Equal-Weighted Index (-0.9%). Since last March, the Top Ten has climbed 48% versus a 10% gain for the EW S&P 500. #StockMarket #Investing $NVDA
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
November 11, 2025 at 2:30 PM
A prime period for stocks has begun. Historically, the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted index sees a remarkable +19.5% annualized gain from Nov-Apr, compared to just +4.1% during the May-Oct lull. (Results12/31/88 thru 10/31/25) #StockMarket #InvestmentOpportunity
In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall
October 31, 2025 at 4:45 PM
In report by #PaulLaMonica, Leuthold’s Opsal notes: Blue chips are feeling no love in this growth-fired market, of late, but don’t ignore Quality—it’s had solid results in recent years and kept pace with the Mag-7 fueled $SPX dub.sh/qTJyKnW @Barronsonline $COST $COKE #paywall
Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?
Stocks keep marching higher, but there are signs of strain under the surface.
dub.sh
October 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Leuthold PM Phil Segner talks with #SarahHansen Sr Reporter
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
@Morningstar about the vertical path of equities. "Are Investors Ignoring Red Flags in the Stock Market?" Check out the full conversation: dub.sh/0xYiCkp #MarketTrends #Investing
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing
October 24, 2025 at 7:30 PM
On the lighter side, cartoon by Harley Schwadron schwadroncartoons.com #HarleySchwadron #AIRevolution #Investing