Laurie Macfarlane
@lmacfarlane.bsky.social
Co-director @FutureEconScot.bsky.social Fellow UCL IIPP and the Democracy Collaborative. Co-author ‘Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing’
Interesting piece arguing the UK has meaningful leverage over the US — tariffs, tech regulation, and treasuries.
It would be nice, but I’m not convinced any of these provide much real leverage 🧵
It would be nice, but I’m not convinced any of these provide much real leverage 🧵
Trump tariffs should push Britain towards realism
The Thucydides Trap refers to the high probability of conflict when one global hegemon rises to eclipse a declining power. The world avoided that fate as the British Empire was replaced by Pax America...
unherd.com
January 19, 2026 at 9:21 PM
Interesting piece arguing the UK has meaningful leverage over the US — tariffs, tech regulation, and treasuries.
It would be nice, but I’m not convinced any of these provide much real leverage 🧵
It would be nice, but I’m not convinced any of these provide much real leverage 🧵
Few countries are more exposed to Trump’s bullying than post-Brexit Britain. We’re utterly reliant on the US and lack any serious clout to retaliate with.
As I put it when Trump got re-elected: “the UK is a sitting duck”🧵
As I put it when Trump got re-elected: “the UK is a sitting duck”🧵
www.opendemocracy.net
January 19, 2026 at 6:20 PM
Few countries are more exposed to Trump’s bullying than post-Brexit Britain. We’re utterly reliant on the US and lack any serious clout to retaliate with.
As I put it when Trump got re-elected: “the UK is a sitting duck”🧵
As I put it when Trump got re-elected: “the UK is a sitting duck”🧵
Let me get this straight: Trump has stashed $500m raised from selling Venezuelan oil in a private offshore account in Qatar — the country that recently gifted Trump a $400m private jet?
Sounds legit 😬 www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
Sounds legit 😬 www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
Trump is sending funds from Venezuela oil to a bank in Qatar: report
Senior officials claim Gulf state provides neutral location to store proceeds from which they can be moved safely and without risk of seizure
www.independent.co.uk
January 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM
Let me get this straight: Trump has stashed $500m raised from selling Venezuelan oil in a private offshore account in Qatar — the country that recently gifted Trump a $400m private jet?
Sounds legit 😬 www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
Sounds legit 😬 www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...
The Scottish Budget increased the bottom two income tax thresholds by 7.4%, which was billed as a tax cut for low earners.
In reality this benefits higher earners the most — but is more than offset by freezing the higher thresholds.
In reality this benefits higher earners the most — but is more than offset by freezing the higher thresholds.
January 15, 2026 at 12:06 PM
The Scottish Budget increased the bottom two income tax thresholds by 7.4%, which was billed as a tax cut for low earners.
In reality this benefits higher earners the most — but is more than offset by freezing the higher thresholds.
In reality this benefits higher earners the most — but is more than offset by freezing the higher thresholds.
Our analysis of this week’s Scottish Budget 👇
Some welcome measures, but tough choices have been delayed — not avoided.
Taxes will have to rise if Scotland is to maintain its social contract long-term.
Some welcome measures, but tough choices have been delayed — not avoided.
Taxes will have to rise if Scotland is to maintain its social contract long-term.
NEW: Scotland’s Budget has delayed tough choices — not avoided them.
With an election in May, caution was to be expected. But while some welcome measures were announced, the long-term challenges haven’t gone away. 🧵
With an election in May, caution was to be expected. But while some welcome measures were announced, the long-term challenges haven’t gone away. 🧵
Scotland’s Budget: Tough Choices Delayed, Not Avoided
Our analysis of Scotland's Budget for 2026/27.
www.futureeconomy.scot
January 15, 2026 at 10:34 AM
Our analysis of this week’s Scottish Budget 👇
Some welcome measures, but tough choices have been delayed — not avoided.
Taxes will have to rise if Scotland is to maintain its social contract long-term.
Some welcome measures, but tough choices have been delayed — not avoided.
Taxes will have to rise if Scotland is to maintain its social contract long-term.
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
🏴 Today's Budget contains some welcome changes on tax, however Scotland's underlying fiscal challenges remain.
Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/249-re...
Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/249-re...
January 13, 2026 at 4:56 PM
🏴 Today's Budget contains some welcome changes on tax, however Scotland's underlying fiscal challenges remain.
Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/249-re...
Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/249-re...
Some significant tax reforms in Scotland’s budget:
🏠 New mansion tax
✈️ Private jet tax
💰Tax cuts for low income tax bands
Full @futureeconscot.bsky.social analysis to follow soon. #ScottishBudget
🏠 New mansion tax
✈️ Private jet tax
💰Tax cuts for low income tax bands
Full @futureeconscot.bsky.social analysis to follow soon. #ScottishBudget
January 13, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Some significant tax reforms in Scotland’s budget:
🏠 New mansion tax
✈️ Private jet tax
💰Tax cuts for low income tax bands
Full @futureeconscot.bsky.social analysis to follow soon. #ScottishBudget
🏠 New mansion tax
✈️ Private jet tax
💰Tax cuts for low income tax bands
Full @futureeconscot.bsky.social analysis to follow soon. #ScottishBudget
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
"Sooner or later, Scotland’s politicians will need to have an honest conversation with the public. If the state is to sustain the services we all rely on, taxes will have to rise. If they don’t, devastating cuts are inevitable.”
Writes @lmacfarlane.bsky.social 👇
www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Writes @lmacfarlane.bsky.social 👇
www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Why SNP is going to have to put up income tax for most of us or make devastating cuts
Don’t expect any big tax shocks in the Scottish Budget, but sooner or later, politicians are going to have to be honest about the government’s difficult fiscal position
www.scotsman.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:43 PM
"Sooner or later, Scotland’s politicians will need to have an honest conversation with the public. If the state is to sustain the services we all rely on, taxes will have to rise. If they don’t, devastating cuts are inevitable.”
Writes @lmacfarlane.bsky.social 👇
www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Writes @lmacfarlane.bsky.social 👇
www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
“If Scotland wants to maintain its proud social contract, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: most of us will need to pay a little more tax.”
My op-ed ahead of this week’s Budget for @scotsman.com:
My op-ed ahead of this week’s Budget for @scotsman.com:
"Maintaining the status quo is not an option."
Ahead of this week's Budget, our co-director Laurie Macfarlane argues that if public services are to be protected, taxes will soon have to rise.
✍️ Read in @scotsman.com: www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Ahead of this week's Budget, our co-director Laurie Macfarlane argues that if public services are to be protected, taxes will soon have to rise.
✍️ Read in @scotsman.com: www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
January 12, 2026 at 10:18 AM
“If Scotland wants to maintain its proud social contract, we must confront an uncomfortable truth: most of us will need to pay a little more tax.”
My op-ed ahead of this week’s Budget for @scotsman.com:
My op-ed ahead of this week’s Budget for @scotsman.com:
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
"Maintaining the status quo is not an option."
Ahead of this week's Budget, our co-director Laurie Macfarlane argues that if public services are to be protected, taxes will soon have to rise.
✍️ Read in @scotsman.com: www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Ahead of this week's Budget, our co-director Laurie Macfarlane argues that if public services are to be protected, taxes will soon have to rise.
✍️ Read in @scotsman.com: www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
January 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM
"Maintaining the status quo is not an option."
Ahead of this week's Budget, our co-director Laurie Macfarlane argues that if public services are to be protected, taxes will soon have to rise.
✍️ Read in @scotsman.com: www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Ahead of this week's Budget, our co-director Laurie Macfarlane argues that if public services are to be protected, taxes will soon have to rise.
✍️ Read in @scotsman.com: www.scotsman.com/news/opinion...
Greenland is SO important to the US’s national security, they just forgot to mention it in the recent National Security Strategy.
Same with the Arctic. Funny that.
Same with the Arctic. Funny that.
January 8, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Greenland is SO important to the US’s national security, they just forgot to mention it in the recent National Security Strategy.
Same with the Arctic. Funny that.
Same with the Arctic. Funny that.
The Pentagon has never passed an audit. Before 9/11 Rumsfeld said $2.3 trillion of defense spending was unaccounted for.
It’s a bottomless pit. So much for Musk’s “government efficiency” drive.
It’s a bottomless pit. So much for Musk’s “government efficiency” drive.
Trump wants to increase military spending by 50% to $1.5 trillion.
This chart shows how utterly absurd this is.
This chart shows how utterly absurd this is.
January 8, 2026 at 6:25 PM
The Pentagon has never passed an audit. Before 9/11 Rumsfeld said $2.3 trillion of defense spending was unaccounted for.
It’s a bottomless pit. So much for Musk’s “government efficiency” drive.
It’s a bottomless pit. So much for Musk’s “government efficiency” drive.
Trump wants to increase military spending by 50% to $1.5 trillion.
This chart shows how utterly absurd this is.
This chart shows how utterly absurd this is.
January 8, 2026 at 2:35 PM
Trump wants to increase military spending by 50% to $1.5 trillion.
This chart shows how utterly absurd this is.
This chart shows how utterly absurd this is.
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
Here is the report Ariane Burgess MSP references above:
Restoring Nature to Deliver a Just Transition to Net Zero - A holistic agenda for scaling up investment in woodlands and peatlands.
By @hannawheatley.bsky.social & @lmacfarlane.bsky.social
www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
Restoring Nature to Deliver a Just Transition to Net Zero - A holistic agenda for scaling up investment in woodlands and peatlands.
By @hannawheatley.bsky.social & @lmacfarlane.bsky.social
www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
Restoring Nature to Deliver a Just Transition to Net Zero
A holistic agenda for scaling up investment in woodlands and peatlands.
www.futureeconomy.scot
January 8, 2026 at 10:37 AM
Here is the report Ariane Burgess MSP references above:
Restoring Nature to Deliver a Just Transition to Net Zero - A holistic agenda for scaling up investment in woodlands and peatlands.
By @hannawheatley.bsky.social & @lmacfarlane.bsky.social
www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
Restoring Nature to Deliver a Just Transition to Net Zero - A holistic agenda for scaling up investment in woodlands and peatlands.
By @hannawheatley.bsky.social & @lmacfarlane.bsky.social
www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
Scotland is "delaying action now for an uncertain solution in the future."
Today, our senior economist
@hannawheatley.bsky.social gave evidence to the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee on the Climate Change Plan's proposals on peatland restoration.
🎥 Listen to her opening remarks.
Today, our senior economist
@hannawheatley.bsky.social gave evidence to the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee on the Climate Change Plan's proposals on peatland restoration.
🎥 Listen to her opening remarks.
January 7, 2026 at 2:58 PM
Scotland is "delaying action now for an uncertain solution in the future."
Today, our senior economist
@hannawheatley.bsky.social gave evidence to the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee on the Climate Change Plan's proposals on peatland restoration.
🎥 Listen to her opening remarks.
Today, our senior economist
@hannawheatley.bsky.social gave evidence to the Rural Affairs and Islands Committee on the Climate Change Plan's proposals on peatland restoration.
🎥 Listen to her opening remarks.
Suspect that much of the chaos of 2026 stems from Trump knowing he’s running out of time — politically and biologically.
His health is clearly deteriorating, and the Epstein stuff is ramping up.
“Secure my legacy while I still can.” Grim.
His health is clearly deteriorating, and the Epstein stuff is ramping up.
“Secure my legacy while I still can.” Grim.
January 7, 2026 at 1:14 PM
Suspect that much of the chaos of 2026 stems from Trump knowing he’s running out of time — politically and biologically.
His health is clearly deteriorating, and the Epstein stuff is ramping up.
“Secure my legacy while I still can.” Grim.
His health is clearly deteriorating, and the Epstein stuff is ramping up.
“Secure my legacy while I still can.” Grim.
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
I think Laurie’s take is spot on, even though it pains me to think that Europe might be this weak.
When Trump takes Greenland with no major repercussions, he won't stop there.
This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵
This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵
US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military - White House
It came as European allies rallied behind Denmark after renewed US insistence it must have Greenland.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 7, 2026 at 7:06 AM
I think Laurie’s take is spot on, even though it pains me to think that Europe might be this weak.
When Trump takes Greenland with no major repercussions, he won't stop there.
This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵
This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵
US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military - White House
It came as European allies rallied behind Denmark after renewed US insistence it must have Greenland.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 6, 2026 at 10:26 PM
When Trump takes Greenland with no major repercussions, he won't stop there.
This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵
This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵
Venezuela isn't just about oil. It's the opening gambit in Trump's plan to untangle the US economy from China ahead of a future confrontation.
The goal: a compliant South America to replace Chinese manufacturing and give US corporates unfettered access to resources 🧵
The goal: a compliant South America to replace Chinese manufacturing and give US corporates unfettered access to resources 🧵
January 4, 2026 at 7:37 PM
Venezuela isn't just about oil. It's the opening gambit in Trump's plan to untangle the US economy from China ahead of a future confrontation.
The goal: a compliant South America to replace Chinese manufacturing and give US corporates unfettered access to resources 🧵
The goal: a compliant South America to replace Chinese manufacturing and give US corporates unfettered access to resources 🧵
I’ve launched a new YouTube channel, New World Disorder 🚀
Clip from the first episode, ‘The Tech Time Bomb’ 👇
Full video: youtu.be/v59IonvPUks?...
Clip from the first episode, ‘The Tech Time Bomb’ 👇
Full video: youtu.be/v59IonvPUks?...
December 20, 2025 at 1:52 PM
I’ve launched a new YouTube channel, New World Disorder 🚀
Clip from the first episode, ‘The Tech Time Bomb’ 👇
Full video: youtu.be/v59IonvPUks?...
Clip from the first episode, ‘The Tech Time Bomb’ 👇
Full video: youtu.be/v59IonvPUks?...
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
Looking forward to watching more from New World Disorder in 2026. Economist @lmacfarlane.bsky.social promises an exciting and engaging analysis of the political and economic turmoil reshaping our world. He begins with this whistle stop history of the present ⬇️
New World Disorder
New World Disorder breaks down the forces reshaping our world — economics, geopolitics, technology and more. From AI and trade wars to geopolitics and climate change, we help people navigate today's a...
m.youtube.com
December 19, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Looking forward to watching more from New World Disorder in 2026. Economist @lmacfarlane.bsky.social promises an exciting and engaging analysis of the political and economic turmoil reshaping our world. He begins with this whistle stop history of the present ⬇️
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
📣 What next for community wealth building in Scotland?
Our new report asks what it’ll take to turn ambition into action.
By our Co-Director @miriambrett.bsky.social, and @neilmcinroy.bsky.social, Global Lead for Community Wealth Building at @democracycollab.bsky.social.
1/13 🧵👇
Our new report asks what it’ll take to turn ambition into action.
By our Co-Director @miriambrett.bsky.social, and @neilmcinroy.bsky.social, Global Lead for Community Wealth Building at @democracycollab.bsky.social.
1/13 🧵👇
December 17, 2025 at 10:48 AM
📣 What next for community wealth building in Scotland?
Our new report asks what it’ll take to turn ambition into action.
By our Co-Director @miriambrett.bsky.social, and @neilmcinroy.bsky.social, Global Lead for Community Wealth Building at @democracycollab.bsky.social.
1/13 🧵👇
Our new report asks what it’ll take to turn ambition into action.
By our Co-Director @miriambrett.bsky.social, and @neilmcinroy.bsky.social, Global Lead for Community Wealth Building at @democracycollab.bsky.social.
1/13 🧵👇
The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy is crucial reading to understand the US’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.
Some key takeaways 🧵 www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Some key takeaways 🧵 www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 1:59 PM
The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy is crucial reading to understand the US’s economic and geopolitical ambitions.
Some key takeaways 🧵 www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Some key takeaways 🧵 www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Laurie Macfarlane
“There’s no economic reason why Scotland shouldn’t have more borrowing powers.”
Our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds:
Our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds:
Does the Scottish Government issuing bonds make sense? Expert gives verdict
AN economic expert has claimed the Scottish Government issuing bonds is “more about politics than economics”, questioning claims it would lead…
www.thenational.scot
December 2, 2025 at 9:59 AM
“There’s no economic reason why Scotland shouldn’t have more borrowing powers.”
Our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds:
Our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds:
“What we’re doing is shifting one source of borrowing to another that is potentially more expensive.”
I spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds.
TLDR - I’m not convinced 👇
I spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds.
TLDR - I’m not convinced 👇
Does the Scottish Government issuing bonds make sense? Expert gives verdict
AN economic expert has claimed the Scottish Government issuing bonds is “more about politics than economics”, questioning claims it would lead…
www.thenational.scot
December 2, 2025 at 9:50 AM
“What we’re doing is shifting one source of borrowing to another that is potentially more expensive.”
I spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds.
TLDR - I’m not convinced 👇
I spoke to The National about the Scottish Government’s plan to issue bonds.
TLDR - I’m not convinced 👇