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Manifold Alerts

@manifoldalerts.bsky.social

48 followers 18 following 61 posts

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Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 7h

Market: Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?

manifold.markets/Sketchy/will...

Will the second No Kings protest outnumber the first?

28% chance. Resolves according to the estimate for total turnout on Wikipedia, according to whatever count is cited the most prominently (this includes the organizer estimate, if most prominent). For...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 12h

Market: Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 18h

84% chance the shutdown exceeds 25 days according to Manifold
manifold.markets/Panfilo/will...

Will the current US Government Shutdown exceed 25 days?

84% chance. This market resolves Yes when the shutdown exceeds 25 days, and No if it resolves sooner. In the event of a close call, it will resolve based on whether a new budget of any duration had be...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 19h

Newsome has signed AB 82, SB 59, SB 497, and AB 1084. But he declined to sign SB 418 by veto.

manifold.markets/Marnix/gavin...

Gavin Newsom signs these 5 trans rights bills?

Resolved NO. All five of these bills have passed the California State Legislature, and have been sent to Newsom to sign. This market resolves NO if he vetoes any of them. It resolves YES if he signs a...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 19h

Hamas has released the hostages known to Israeli intelligence.
manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/...

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025

Resolved NO. Following October 7 events, there are currently 101 Israeli hostages in Gaza strip. This question resolve YES if at the end of 2025, the Wikipedia page of Israel Hamas Hostage Crisis, sa...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 1d

Market: Government shutdown ends by December?

manifold.markets/hahahahh/gov...

Government shutdown ends by December?

91% chance. Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the government shutdown ends at any time within December (not just by the beginning or end of the mo...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 2d

Market: Government shutdown exceeds 35-day record?

manifold.markets/antani/gover...

Government shutdown exceeds 35-day record?

44% chance. This market resolves YES if the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 continues for more than 35 days, surpassing the 2018-2019 shutdown which lasted 35 days (December 22,...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 2d

PolyMarket giving 95% probability Hamas releases all hostages by the end of the month.
polymarket.com/event/will-h...

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by...?

Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases all living Israeli hostages held in Gaza by October 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this m...

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 2d

63% chance the government is still shut down on Halloween.

manifold.markets/10thOfficial...

Will the government still be shutdown on Halloween?

63% chance. Us government, status as is today, 2025

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 4d

Market: Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?

manifold.markets/jade/will-tr...

Will Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court before 2029?

93% chance. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/ Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ### Update from...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 4d

This market has moved to 50%

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 5d

Market: Trump retaliates against Norway if denied Nobel Peace Prize?

manifold.markets/Balasar/trum...

Trump retaliates against Norway if denied Nobel Peace Prize?

21% chance. Resolution criteria This resolves Yes if, within 45 days after the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement (scheduled for Friday, October 10, 2025, 11:00 CEST in Oslo), the Trump administrati...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 5d

Market: Will Donald Trump retaliate against Norway for not winning the Nobel Peace Prize?

manifold.markets/JohnDavidPre...

Will Donald Trump retaliate against Norway for not winning the Nobel Peace Prize?

37% chance. Unusual Whales writes: BREAKING: Norway is bracing for Trump's reaction if he does not win Nobel peace prize, stating that "US president may impose tariffs, demand higher Nato contributio...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 5d

Donald Trump did not win the Nobel Peace Prize and this market has resolved NO.

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 9d

Market: Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

manifold.markets/Mediapunk/wi...

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

4% chance. Background The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations who have made outstanding contributions to promoting peace. Donald Tru...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 5d

This market has moved up to 58%.

A manifold market screenshot:

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?
Probability moved 51% → 61%
17h

Quroe 💞 liked your comment on Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?
Donald Trump threatens to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy troops
https://www.ft.com/content/ee3c2f14-7726-47bb-...

17h

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 6d

Market: Will the Comey indictment be thrown out before the end of December?

manifold.markets/strutheo/wil...

Will the Comey indictment be thrown out before the end of December?

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 7d

This market has moved down to a 21% chance.

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

manifold.markets/ScottAlexand...

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

37% chance. EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as ...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

manifold.markets/256/will-the...

Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

7% chance. This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "popped". This could manifest in many different ways: - a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes - a hal...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: Fire at judge Diane Goodstein's house was arson

manifold.markets/AlexanderThe...

Fire at judge Diane Goodstein's house was arson

35% chance. Context: https://www.counton2.com/news/local-news/colleton-county-news/3-injured-in-edisto-beach-fire-sled-investigating/ The judge had previously blocked release of voter files to DOJ: h...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: Trump pardons Maxwell in 2025?

manifold.markets/predyx_marke...

Trump pardons Maxwell in 2025?

17% chance. To mark the market as YES in 2025, these events must occur: A formal pardon or commutation of Ghislaine Maxwell’s federal sentence must be signed by President Trumpin 2025. For clarity: ...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?

manifold.markets/JennaBarnaby...

Will a U.S. military service member kill a U.S. citizen protester before 2026?

27% chance. I will resolve this question as "yes," if the New York Times publishes a story stating that a U.S. citizen, involved in a protest situation, was killed by a U.S. military service member in...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?

manifold.markets/AlyssaVance/...

Will Donald Trump order the US military to crush protesters?

54% chance. In November 2023, the Washington Post reported: "Donald Trump and his allies have begun mapping out specific plans for using the federal government to punish critics and opponents should ...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in his second term, will the military be directed against protestors?

manifold.markets/WalterMartin...

If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in his second term, will the military be directed against protestors?

89% chance. I ask because the two main priorities that have been previously mentioned for Insurrection Act invocation (by the Trump team) have been border security and civil unrest. I specifically wan...

manifold.markets

Manifold Alerts @manifoldalerts.bsky.social · 8d

Market: Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

manifold.markets/FranklinBald...

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term?

48% chance. Background The Insurrection Act of 1807 allows the U.S. president to deploy military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrectio...

manifold.markets