Market Thoughts
@marketthoughts.bsky.social
Oracle seems determined to close today at 200. The cause is some manufactured news about Tik-Tok and something such. Nothing to do with the puts expiring today. 200 is a nice round number to open puts, don't you think.
December 19, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Oracle seems determined to close today at 200. The cause is some manufactured news about Tik-Tok and something such. Nothing to do with the puts expiring today. 200 is a nice round number to open puts, don't you think.
In the mind of bond investors, BOJ's upside move seems to be weighting more than the tame US inflation, and they fall. Keep in mind that this is happening with the US Treasury buying itself record quantities of bonds every week. Another market in a state of flux.
December 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
In the mind of bond investors, BOJ's upside move seems to be weighting more than the tame US inflation, and they fall. Keep in mind that this is happening with the US Treasury buying itself record quantities of bonds every week. Another market in a state of flux.
Euro stocks flat, null comma zero movement. Final adjustments in the OPEX, that is already passed for them. US futures a bit green. If I didn't know that you should ignore movements in the OPEX week, I would now be thinking that this market is a trembling foundations story. But I know, of course.
December 19, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Euro stocks flat, null comma zero movement. Final adjustments in the OPEX, that is already passed for them. US futures a bit green. If I didn't know that you should ignore movements in the OPEX week, I would now be thinking that this market is a trembling foundations story. But I know, of course.
Curious day. The PCI printed much better than expected and the market rallied in a lacklustre way. My favorite explanation keeps being tomorrow's OPEX.
December 18, 2025 at 9:22 PM
Curious day. The PCI printed much better than expected and the market rallied in a lacklustre way. My favorite explanation keeps being tomorrow's OPEX.
Remember it's big OPEX week, so all movements are suspect. That said, yesterday crossed some technical levels in the SP, that should generate some automatic sells if not corrected fast. Anyway, OPEX on Friday, so Monday and Tuesday will be more meaningful.
December 18, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Remember it's big OPEX week, so all movements are suspect. That said, yesterday crossed some technical levels in the SP, that should generate some automatic sells if not corrected fast. Anyway, OPEX on Friday, so Monday and Tuesday will be more meaningful.
Euro stocks slightly up on US futures up on Micron good results. Every new headline flips the market. Remember the Hindenburg omens? They told of a schizo market. That hasn't changed.
December 18, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Euro stocks slightly up on US futures up on Micron good results. Every new headline flips the market. Remember the Hindenburg omens? They told of a schizo market. That hasn't changed.
I must recognize bias. When they say that today was a bad day but good breath so not so bad, I think they pumped the small and medium caps to avoid catastrophe. Bias, I know.
December 17, 2025 at 11:15 PM
I must recognize bias. When they say that today was a bad day but good breath so not so bad, I think they pumped the small and medium caps to avoid catastrophe. Bias, I know.
Euro stocks slightly red, tech redder than all, following the tech selloff in the Asian session. Clearly the cracks in the AI narrative have started to widen, and you can see quite a bit of crumbling. Next results season could be fun. US futures red, ODTE's moved support to 6750. Still in OPEX week.
December 16, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Euro stocks slightly red, tech redder than all, following the tech selloff in the Asian session. Clearly the cracks in the AI narrative have started to widen, and you can see quite a bit of crumbling. Next results season could be fun. US futures red, ODTE's moved support to 6750. Still in OPEX week.
The market gifted us another day of thin range. The 6800 support held with apparent minimal difficulties, but the rebound was dispirited. Only Bitcoin has moved some today, down as it is. Even bonds stopped their decline and moved laterally. Not much to say or do till Friday's OPEX.
December 15, 2025 at 9:11 PM
The market gifted us another day of thin range. The 6800 support held with apparent minimal difficulties, but the rebound was dispirited. Only Bitcoin has moved some today, down as it is. Even bonds stopped their decline and moved laterally. Not much to say or do till Friday's OPEX.
Euro stocks solidly green, with cyclicals outperforming but all sectors green, really. This week will be a week of adjustments for the Friday OPEX, so not a lot of meaning is there to be extracted. US futures also up, SP recovering the 6850 level, that is a sweet spot, apparently.
December 15, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Euro stocks solidly green, with cyclicals outperforming but all sectors green, really. This week will be a week of adjustments for the Friday OPEX, so not a lot of meaning is there to be extracted. US futures also up, SP recovering the 6850 level, that is a sweet spot, apparently.
This week is OPEX on Friday, so options sellers will fight for a decent weekly close. They usually get their way. However, volume has been puny since Thanksgiving. So, if you had a lot that you wanted to sell, perhaps you had been waiting to this week, where you'll get counterpart. Who knows.
December 14, 2025 at 8:09 PM
This week is OPEX on Friday, so options sellers will fight for a decent weekly close. They usually get their way. However, volume has been puny since Thanksgiving. So, if you had a lot that you wanted to sell, perhaps you had been waiting to this week, where you'll get counterpart. Who knows.
BofA's Mr. Hartnett has retouched a nice optimism indicator they had, and now it's signalling "sell". Or rather it signaled "sell" on October. It's fortunate that we aren't 20% down then, talk about second opportunities.
December 14, 2025 at 8:06 PM
BofA's Mr. Hartnett has retouched a nice optimism indicator they had, and now it's signalling "sell". Or rather it signaled "sell" on October. It's fortunate that we aren't 20% down then, talk about second opportunities.
Forget M2 and M3, I think M4 (Massive Mountain of Momentum Money) is the real mover these days. Yesterday again everything was correlated, there was no "safe haven", all went to cash, from stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, crypto, you name it. Long term is so yesterday, momentum rules.
December 13, 2025 at 7:18 AM
Forget M2 and M3, I think M4 (Massive Mountain of Momentum Money) is the real mover these days. Yesterday again everything was correlated, there was no "safe haven", all went to cash, from stocks, bonds, commodities, precious metals, crypto, you name it. Long term is so yesterday, momentum rules.
Interesting day. A bad Friday is uncommon, as operators don't like retail investors having time to think in the weekend. Also weekly options. But today it was uniformly bad, and, most interesting of all, bonds joined the downside, with decision. Next week is triple witching, so control is likely.
December 12, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Interesting day. A bad Friday is uncommon, as operators don't like retail investors having time to think in the weekend. Also weekly options. But today it was uniformly bad, and, most interesting of all, bonds joined the downside, with decision. Next week is triple witching, so control is likely.
US 10Y bond moving counter-current, obviously disappointed that the Fed hidden QE is just about short-term debt, not long-term. Foreign buyers seem convinced that a rebound in inflation is coming, and the Fed will raise rates in coming years. I would sooner bet for yield controls, but that's me.
December 12, 2025 at 12:14 PM
US 10Y bond moving counter-current, obviously disappointed that the Fed hidden QE is just about short-term debt, not long-term. Foreign buyers seem convinced that a rebound in inflation is coming, and the Fed will raise rates in coming years. I would sooner bet for yield controls, but that's me.
Everybody seems to be digesting the Fed news. The realize that, all talk aside, the walk is mighty inflationary. They are going to inject money into an economy not particularly needing it, so it will overheat a tad. There is still some general confusion, but this is the emerging narrative.
December 12, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Everybody seems to be digesting the Fed news. The realize that, all talk aside, the walk is mighty inflationary. They are going to inject money into an economy not particularly needing it, so it will overheat a tad. There is still some general confusion, but this is the emerging narrative.
Today, once the distraction of the Fed's meeting is gone, the hive mind seems to get concentrated again in the AI prospects, or rather lack thereof. Of course a rout is not desired before the quarterly witching (well, never, really), so the SP ex-Mag7 is pushed up on the lower rates, to compensate.
December 11, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Today, once the distraction of the Fed's meeting is gone, the hive mind seems to get concentrated again in the AI prospects, or rather lack thereof. Of course a rout is not desired before the quarterly witching (well, never, really), so the SP ex-Mag7 is pushed up on the lower rates, to compensate.
Euro stocks slightly up, having missed the drama upside and downside of the US markets. It's easier to remain at the same position, with no so many peaks and valleys. Curiously, rate dependent sectors keep underperforming. Despite Fed, markets still think the global rates tide starts to change.
December 11, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Euro stocks slightly up, having missed the drama upside and downside of the US markets. It's easier to remain at the same position, with no so many peaks and valleys. Curiously, rate dependent sectors keep underperforming. Despite Fed, markets still think the global rates tide starts to change.
After dovish Fed, markets up. During the night they reconsidered, recognized they were at the top of the lateral range, and a Fed meeting is too good an excuse to lose, and sold off. Now all it's needed is to find something that can be construed to have "disappointed" the market. Won't take long.
December 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
After dovish Fed, markets up. During the night they reconsidered, recognized they were at the top of the lateral range, and a Fed meeting is too good an excuse to lose, and sold off. Now all it's needed is to find something that can be construed to have "disappointed" the market. Won't take long.
Euro stocks slightly red, frozen in the approaching headlights of the Fed meeting. Automobile, that was so strong, leads the downside, probably on news of no new China stimulus. Rate dependent sectors also redder, as the market seem to discount a more hawkish tone, or perhaps the long bonds downside
December 10, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Euro stocks slightly red, frozen in the approaching headlights of the Fed meeting. Automobile, that was so strong, leads the downside, probably on news of no new China stimulus. Rate dependent sectors also redder, as the market seem to discount a more hawkish tone, or perhaps the long bonds downside
Another gripping day of markets doing nothing. Except for silver, that continued trend with gusto. Tomorrow at least we'll stop waiting for the Fed meeting, but of course we'll start waiting for the quarterly options expiry next week.
December 9, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Another gripping day of markets doing nothing. Except for silver, that continued trend with gusto. Tomorrow at least we'll stop waiting for the Fed meeting, but of course we'll start waiting for the quarterly options expiry next week.
Futures seesawed on news of China limiting the use of the NVIDIA chip, that yesterday was given green light to be exported to China. So, a bit of "thanks but no thanks". China clearly wants their companies to design and use local chips. The time it takes is the time NVIDIA has. That's a known fact.
December 9, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Futures seesawed on news of China limiting the use of the NVIDIA chip, that yesterday was given green light to be exported to China. So, a bit of "thanks but no thanks". China clearly wants their companies to design and use local chips. The time it takes is the time NVIDIA has. That's a known fact.
Bonds retraced part of the daily losses, probably on operators wanting to listen to the Fed before doing more. Japanese and European bonds keep tense however. It's difficult to think what can the Fed say that will sway the trend. But you never know, after all, some day rate controls may be announced
December 9, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Bonds retraced part of the daily losses, probably on operators wanting to listen to the Fed before doing more. Japanese and European bonds keep tense however. It's difficult to think what can the Fed say that will sway the trend. But you never know, after all, some day rate controls may be announced
Not really a significant happening, but today the put wall of 0DTE options was at 6850, and, though it was tried in the last minute, it closed under the level. It's the first time, bar heavy movement days, that I see that. Call walls, sure, broken fairly often, but not put walls. A curiosity perhaps
December 8, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Not really a significant happening, but today the put wall of 0DTE options was at 6850, and, though it was tried in the last minute, it closed under the level. It's the first time, bar heavy movement days, that I see that. Call walls, sure, broken fairly often, but not put walls. A curiosity perhaps
Euro stocks flat, real state the biggest laggard on bonds weakness. That's the story of the day, bonds keep falling, and now a ECB voice joins the "next movement up" crew, with Japan as the first mate. About US bonds, the doubt is if their downside is just contagion, or Fed independence doubts too.
December 8, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Euro stocks flat, real state the biggest laggard on bonds weakness. That's the story of the day, bonds keep falling, and now a ECB voice joins the "next movement up" crew, with Japan as the first mate. About US bonds, the doubt is if their downside is just contagion, or Fed independence doubts too.