@mattfavas.bsky.social
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mattfavas.bsky.social
Three years ago, a food calamity loomed. Russia’s war in Ukraine pitted 2 big grain exporters against each other; prices surged. As the war rages on, Ukraine's wheat exports are set to shrink by 25-30% this season. And yet prices are nearing 5-year lows. Here's why www.economist.com/finance-and-...
How grain has gone from famine to feast
Prices are close to a five-year low
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
Commodity markets look simple. When the supply of a material shrinks, prices go up. When supply expands, they go down. The problem is that supply shocks never quite live up to the initial excitement. For a recent example, take a look at lithium www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Why supply shocks are a trap for commodity investors
Lessons from lithium’s fake rally
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
In the trade war between the US and China, most of the focus has been on the tariff tit for tat. But China has another weapon to hurt America: restrictions on rare-earth exports. That is a weapon it is starting to deploy. How much damage could it cause? www.economist.com/finance-and-...
China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports
It has only just begun to use it
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
Markets are sliding. Oil and gas are tanking. Other commodities are down. So this week I wrote about a niche material that's holding up better than most. Tin is the one critical metal no one's talking about www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Tin, an overlooked critical metal, is enjoying a boom
Prized and in short supply, its price is very volatile
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
What if America lifts sanctions on Russia but Europe does not? Access to US tech, currency and payment networks, some say, is what Russia really wants. But the old continent has its own weapons. Ignored and threatened, it may be tempted to use them www.economist.com/finance-and-...
How Europe can hurt Russia’s economy
Even if America lifts sanctions, the old continent has its own weapons
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
Faced with Trump's bullying, Europe wants to avoid escalation. Its retaliatory tariffs are measured. The bloc still hopes that the worst instincts of the American president and his coterie can be moderated. But what if they can't? www.economist.com/briefing/202...
If it comes to a stand-off, Europe has leverage over America
But pulling some of those levers would be so damaging as to make them unusable
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
Three months after Syria’s 14-year civil war ended, and as Ramadan begins, euphoria is being replaced by anger at the continuing atrophying of the economy. There is a way to change this www.economist.com/briefing/202...
Syria’s economy, still strangled by sanctions, is on its knees
It will not improve until they are lifted
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
As Trump starts talks with Russia on ending war in Ukraine, European gas prices are cooling. They are now 17% down from their peak of Feb 10th. How likely is it that Europe starts piping gas from Russia again? www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Will Europe return to Putin’s gas?
A deal with the devil would boost the continent’s miserable economy
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
MUFG, a bank, estimates that a 25% tariff will push up the cost of a tonne of steel imported into America from $755 to over $900, negating a cost advantage that America currently enjoys over Europe. Donald Trump's metals wars will corrode the economy www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Donald Trump’s Super Bowl tariffs are an act of self-harm
Duties on aluminium and steel will throttle American industry and fragment global markets
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
After ignoring Iran's clandestine oil trade for most of his tenure, Biden is finally turning the screws. The result: Iran's oil exports are down by a quarter in 3 months. Now Trump promises maximum pressure... How will Iran - and oil prices - respond? www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Iran is vulnerable to a Trumpian all-out economic assault
Oil prices are already at a five-month high
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
For the first time since 2022, it looks like Ukraine is winning the economic war. But it faces strong headwinds: the uptick of war, the downtick of domestic resources... and Donald Trump www.economist.com/finance-and-... Great to collaborate with @olliecarroll.bsky.social
Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia
Whether that lasts depends on its ability to overcome acute shortages of power, men and money
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
Donald Trump wants to be the ultimate energy baron. But how much oil can he really pump? (Spoiler: much less than he says)
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
How much oil can Trump pump?
The president-elect wants to be the ultimate energy baron
www.economist.com
mattfavas.bsky.social
Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel. Yet it still provides a third of global energy. What would it cost to kill it? My colleagues and I crunched the numbers in this COP-special interactive piece www.economist.com/interactive/...
What would it cost to kill coal?
The price of shutting down coal power, and what would be gained
www.economist.com