Michael Weissman
@mbweissman.bsky.social
Pekar 2022 was 1 of 2 key papers supporting a market origin of covid, via multiple spillovers. v3 of my arXiv fixing its math errors in a transparent way is now up, with a new histogram. tl;dr The answer from their model applied to their data is the opposite of their claim. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
November 11, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Pekar 2022 was 1 of 2 key papers supporting a market origin of covid, via multiple spillovers. v3 of my arXiv fixing its math errors in a transparent way is now up, with a new histogram. tl;dr The answer from their model applied to their data is the opposite of their claim. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
I recycle some old thoughts (2017) about Trump and the collapse of civilization.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/civilizati...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/civilizati...
Civilization and Its Discontents
rerunning thoughts from 2017, with some new comments
michaelweissman.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 10:08 PM
I recycle some old thoughts (2017) about Trump and the collapse of civilization.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/civilizati...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/civilizati...
The corrections to the Pekar 2022 Science paper claiming multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions are factorizable and simple, using data contained in the paper and minimal assumptions. Their data and model imply that a single introduction was more likely.
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to human...
arxiv.org
October 3, 2025 at 2:20 AM
The corrections to the Pekar 2022 Science paper claiming multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions are factorizable and simple, using data contained in the paper and minimal assumptions. Their data and model imply that a single introduction was more likely.
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
Reposted by Michael Weissman
Very few PhD students finish within 4 years. But international students will need to do that if US proposed visa rules change go through.
Sound reasonable to you?
Fed register is accepting comments for next month. Details at the link & comment button
www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
Sound reasonable to you?
Fed register is accepting comments for next month. Details at the link & comment button
www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
Establishing a Fixed Time Period of Admission and an Extension of Stay Procedure for Nonimmigrant Academic Students, Exchange Visitors, and Representatives of Foreign Information Media
Unlike most nonimmigrant classifications, which are admitted for a fixed time period, aliens in the F (academic student), J (exchange visitor), and most I (representatives of foreign information media...
www.federalregister.gov
August 29, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Very few PhD students finish within 4 years. But international students will need to do that if US proposed visa rules change go through.
Sound reasonable to you?
Fed register is accepting comments for next month. Details at the link & comment button
www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
Sound reasonable to you?
Fed register is accepting comments for next month. Details at the link & comment button
www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
With troops being employed for domestic suppression and war looming, I briefly escaped into nostalgic family memories.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/more-stori...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/more-stori...
More stories from my dad
focus on Los Alamos.
michaelweissman.substack.com
June 18, 2025 at 3:24 PM
With troops being employed for domestic suppression and war looming, I briefly escaped into nostalgic family memories.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/more-stori...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/more-stori...
College alumni join forces
open.substack.com/pub/lastpaig...
open.substack.com/pub/lastpaig...
College alumni join forces
Fighting fascism with a unified voice
open.substack.com
June 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
College alumni join forces
open.substack.com/pub/lastpaig...
open.substack.com/pub/lastpaig...
This is urgent. We have until noon Sat. to get 10 k alumni signers for this amicus brief. Harvard may suck, but this is where the front lines are in the defense against Trump's attacks on science and education. Please sign if you're eligible. and circulate!
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Harvard Alumni Amicus Brief Sign On
This is the sign-on form for an amicus curiae ("friend of the court") brief from Harvard alumni. The brief will be filed in support of Harvard, in its lawsuit challenging the U.S. government's unlawf...
docs.google.com
June 4, 2025 at 10:33 PM
This is urgent. We have until noon Sat. to get 10 k alumni signers for this amicus brief. Harvard may suck, but this is where the front lines are in the defense against Trump's attacks on science and education. Please sign if you're eligible. and circulate!
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
There was more interest than I expected in this niche substack answering Scott Alexander on Covid origins. It may be more generally useful for its brief discussion of how hierarchical Bayes is needed in messy practical problems.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/open-lette...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/open-lette...
Open Letter to Scott Alexander
It's ok to change your mind
michaelweissman.substack.com
May 27, 2025 at 7:37 PM
There was more interest than I expected in this niche substack answering Scott Alexander on Covid origins. It may be more generally useful for its brief discussion of how hierarchical Bayes is needed in messy practical problems.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/open-lette...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/open-lette...
Reposted by Michael Weissman
tl;dr — this EO co-opts the language of open science to implement a system of political control wherein presidential appointees are given broad latitude to designate any number of reasonable scientific activities and inferences as scientific misconduct, and to penalize those involved accordingly.
Restoring Gold Standard Science
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 7301 of title 5, United
www.whitehouse.gov
May 24, 2025 at 9:28 PM
tl;dr — this EO co-opts the language of open science to implement a system of political control wherein presidential appointees are given broad latitude to designate any number of reasonable scientific activities and inferences as scientific misconduct, and to penalize those involved accordingly.
Reposted by Michael Weissman
Harvard today, your institution tomorrow.
It's all part of the Project 2025 plan to destroy high education in America.
All leading US universities depend on federal funding and tuition dollars from international students. They severely curtailed the former. Now they're eliminating the latter.
It's all part of the Project 2025 plan to destroy high education in America.
All leading US universities depend on federal funding and tuition dollars from international students. They severely curtailed the former. Now they're eliminating the latter.
May 22, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Harvard today, your institution tomorrow.
It's all part of the Project 2025 plan to destroy high education in America.
All leading US universities depend on federal funding and tuition dollars from international students. They severely curtailed the former. Now they're eliminating the latter.
It's all part of the Project 2025 plan to destroy high education in America.
All leading US universities depend on federal funding and tuition dollars from international students. They severely curtailed the former. Now they're eliminating the latter.
More substack, this time recycling some old prison memories.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/prison-mem...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/prison-mem...
Prison Memories
another blast from the past
michaelweissman.substack.com
May 14, 2025 at 6:49 PM
More substack, this time recycling some old prison memories.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/prison-mem...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/prison-mem...
I posted a light, slightly pretentious piece over at the Stack. At least with some anecdotes.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/two-tales-...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/two-tales-...
Two tales from my dad
some old psychologies face new challenges
michaelweissman.substack.com
May 14, 2025 at 5:46 PM
I posted a light, slightly pretentious piece over at the Stack. At least with some anecdotes.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/two-tales-...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/two-tales-...
Here's my summary of and comments on a Brookings/RAND meeting on pandemic prevention and preparedness. Some info on their views on Covid origins and thoughts on coping with the next pandemic. Complete with an explanatory cartoon and a quote from Trotsky.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/brookingsr...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/brookingsr...
Brookings/RAND on Covid
stepping outside naked in the Moscow winter
michaelweissman.substack.com
May 3, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Here's my summary of and comments on a Brookings/RAND meeting on pandemic prevention and preparedness. Some info on their views on Covid origins and thoughts on coping with the next pandemic. Complete with an explanatory cartoon and a quote from Trotsky.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/brookingsr...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/brookingsr...
Reposted by Michael Weissman
This is what a rigged economy looks like:
In the 1970s, CEOs made 27 times more than the average worker.
In the 1980s, CEOs made 48 times more than the average worker.
This decade, CEOs are making 354 times more than the average worker.
That has got to change.
In the 1970s, CEOs made 27 times more than the average worker.
In the 1980s, CEOs made 48 times more than the average worker.
This decade, CEOs are making 354 times more than the average worker.
That has got to change.
April 26, 2025 at 7:27 PM
This is what a rigged economy looks like:
In the 1970s, CEOs made 27 times more than the average worker.
In the 1980s, CEOs made 48 times more than the average worker.
This decade, CEOs are making 354 times more than the average worker.
That has got to change.
In the 1970s, CEOs made 27 times more than the average worker.
In the 1980s, CEOs made 48 times more than the average worker.
This decade, CEOs are making 354 times more than the average worker.
That has got to change.
I've just posted a response to Trump's new Covid announcements.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/trump-on-c...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/trump-on-c...
Trump on Covid Lab Leak
the shit hits the fan
michaelweissman.substack.com
April 20, 2025 at 5:44 PM
I've just posted a response to Trump's new Covid announcements.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/trump-on-c...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/trump-on-c...
An update about various letters for Harvard alums and others to sign trying to get universities not to cave to Trump on free speech. There's a range of political slants but groups plan to work together. Here the link doesn't have to go in separately:
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
April 8, 2025 at 5:47 PM
An update about various letters for Harvard alums and others to sign trying to get universities not to cave to Trump on free speech. There's a range of political slants but groups plan to work together. Here the link doesn't have to go in separately:
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
Reposted by Michael Weissman
NIH slashes overheads, fires directors and staff, freezes funds, halts trials, interrupts research, stalls grant review, and terminates 100s of grants on infectious disease, vaccines, mRNA, DEI, LGBTQ health.
NIH director, to Bari Weiss: Scientists are just upset because they didn't vote for Trump.
NIH director, to Bari Weiss: Scientists are just upset because they didn't vote for Trump.
April 7, 2025 at 12:07 AM
NIH slashes overheads, fires directors and staff, freezes funds, halts trials, interrupts research, stalls grant review, and terminates 100s of grants on infectious disease, vaccines, mRNA, DEI, LGBTQ health.
NIH director, to Bari Weiss: Scientists are just upset because they didn't vote for Trump.
NIH director, to Bari Weiss: Scientists are just upset because they didn't vote for Trump.
Reposted by Michael Weissman
It's getting a lot of attn today. But even before today most of the country had very little idea of what has happened at NIH or through it the entire ecosystem of biomedical research in the US. Simply put, Musk, Kennedy & Trump exploded a bomb right in the middle of cancer cure research in the US.
April 2, 2025 at 1:26 AM
It's getting a lot of attn today. But even before today most of the country had very little idea of what has happened at NIH or through it the entire ecosystem of biomedical research in the US. Simply put, Musk, Kennedy & Trump exploded a bomb right in the middle of cancer cure research in the US.
There's a letter circulating among Harvard alums on defending free speech against Trump.
links to sign the letter and a Crimson story here:
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
links to sign the letter and a Crimson story here:
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
March 27, 2025 at 10:58 PM
There's a letter circulating among Harvard alums on defending free speech against Trump.
links to sign the letter and a Crimson story here:
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
links to sign the letter and a Crimson story here:
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
A group started today circulating a carefully worded letter from Harvard alums (all types) insisting that Harvard protect free speech, and not cave in to Trump. If you're interested, DM me for the text and email to sign. Other schools could do the same!
March 18, 2025 at 7:43 PM
A group started today circulating a carefully worded letter from Harvard alums (all types) insisting that Harvard protect free speech, and not cave in to Trump. If you're interested, DM me for the text and email to sign. Other schools could do the same!
🧪On covid origins, Angus McCowan has just posted a preprint showing that the two-spillovers story on which the market account rested was based on an explicit mathematical error. Using the data and model of the orignal 2-spill paper, fixing the error reverses the conclusion.
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
arxiv.org
March 1, 2025 at 2:27 PM
🧪On covid origins, Angus McCowan has just posted a preprint showing that the two-spillovers story on which the market account rested was based on an explicit mathematical error. Using the data and model of the orignal 2-spill paper, fixing the error reverses the conclusion.
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
On covid origins , Angus McCowan has just posted a preprint showing that the two-spillovers story on which the market account rested was based on an explicit mathematical error. Using the data and model of the orignal 2-spill paper, fixing the error reverses the conclusion.
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
Purported quantitative support for multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans is an artefact of an imbalanced hypothesis testing framework
arxiv.org
February 28, 2025 at 6:40 PM
On covid origins , Angus McCowan has just posted a preprint showing that the two-spillovers story on which the market account rested was based on an explicit mathematical error. Using the data and model of the orignal 2-spill paper, fixing the error reverses the conclusion.
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
1st glance suggests no more work on chemical reaction rates: “transition” “barrier”. Also forget causal inference: “bias”.
February 5, 2025 at 10:26 PM
1st glance suggests no more work on chemical reaction rates: “transition” “barrier”. Also forget causal inference: “bias”.
Major news on Covid origins, not from spies:
Andy Levin posts a deep Bayesian analysis of the space-time data on NBER. I post a short explainer. Please share.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/big-news-o...
www.nber.org/papers/w33428
Andy Levin posts a deep Bayesian analysis of the space-time data on NBER. I post a short explainer. Please share.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/big-news-o...
www.nber.org/papers/w33428
A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
February 3, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Major news on Covid origins, not from spies:
Andy Levin posts a deep Bayesian analysis of the space-time data on NBER. I post a short explainer. Please share.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/big-news-o...
www.nber.org/papers/w33428
Andy Levin posts a deep Bayesian analysis of the space-time data on NBER. I post a short explainer. Please share.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/big-news-o...
www.nber.org/papers/w33428
I posted a 1996 article on the postmodern turn in attitudes toward science and politics that turned up in some old papers. Might be worth a look, better than anything I write these days.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/postmodern...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/postmodern...
Postmodernism and Science: A Retrospective Look
I cut and paste a 1996 article, back from when I could write.
michaelweissman.substack.com
November 25, 2024 at 8:33 PM
I posted a 1996 article on the postmodern turn in attitudes toward science and politics that turned up in some old papers. Might be worth a look, better than anything I write these days.
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/postmodern...
michaelweissman.substack.com/p/postmodern...