Author | Lightnews

Non-US markets make up for loss of exports for India

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 8h

I'm guessing "export diversification", in the short run at least, is code for offering massive discounts: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

#India

India's export diversification strategy is yielding positive outcomes. Exports of cotton readymade garments are increasing to the UAE, France, and Japan. Marine products and certain gems and jewelle...

India set to resume approvals for Chinese imports after five-year freeze

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 8h

Needs must: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

#India

India is set to expedite approvals for importing goods from China and other nations, including electronics and steel, signaling a thaw in relations. This move aims to boost local supply and meet surgi...

PM Modi's tax cut fuels ₹6 lakh crore festival shopping boom in India

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 1d

Thing is, retail sales growth in #India was already running at around 8% *before* GST-2.0: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company...

GST Tax Cuts: India's consumption tax cuts during the festival season spurred a significant surge in spending, with sales reaching $67.6 billion. This boost, driven by demand for cars, electronics, an...

Standard Chartered lifts Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5% - VnExpress International

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 1d

My colleague, Meekita's, take on #Taiwan's Q3 GDP report last Friday: buff.ly/V8b3Stj. Long story short; sustained moderation back down to long-run potential from here onwards.

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 4d

The 2025 upgrade to 7.5% I can totally understand: e.vnexpress.net/news/busines.... But raising 2026 to 7.2% is punchy, to say the least. Let's not forget about front-loading base effects.

#Vietnam

Standard Chartered has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth this year to 7.5% from its earlier projection of 6.1%.

e.vnexpress.net

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 4d

FWIW, we're at 1.6% for next week's CPI release in the #Philippines, *down* a bit from the September print: business.inquirer.net/555502/bsp-p...

business.inquirer.net

Co-payment spending figures at odds

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 4d

Uh oh: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen....

#Thailand

University says more shops need to register to make consumption stimulus a success

$12b boost to banks lifts corporate loans as SMEs lag - Companies - The Jakarta Post

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 4d

As we wrote when this measure was first announced, the issue is one of weak credit demand; i.e. it has never been a supply-side problem: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202...

#Indonesia

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa emphasized that state-owned banks should not use the funds to lend to conglomerates or purchase dollars.

www.thejakartapost.com

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 4d

Sounds like a sensible change to the new CPI series: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

#India

Number of migrant workers climbs 23%

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 11d

How #Thailand is fighting its shrinking working-age population: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

The number of migrant workers in Thailand is rising, as the border dispute with Cambodia has resulted in more labourers from other countries seeking employment here, says the Employers' Confederation ...

Thai woes deepen as central bank warns of Q3 GDP contraction

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 12d

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "A surprise hold, but #BI isn't done; we still see a cut to 4.50% by year-end" buff.ly/dXdlmrp

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 12d

Well, they had an opportunity to ease earlier this month, but didn't: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen....

#Thailand

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) warned the tariff-hit country is suffering a deeper-than-expected downturn, with the economy having likely posted its first quarterly contraction since the end of 2022.

BI pauses after three consecutive rate cuts, but open to more - Markets - The Jakarta Post

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 12d

Our view, as well: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202.... Base case now after yesterday's surprise hold is a (final) cut in December.

#Indonesia

Bank Indonesia has kept its benchmark interest rate in place after decreasing it by 25 basis points (bps) in each of the past three months, but the central bank is open for further cuts to encourage l...

www.thejakartapost.com

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 12d

"...but the last mile run is turning out to be difficult." (economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...)

We've heard this story before. #India

Modi, Trump talk trade amid improving ties, but deal remains elusive

Prime Minister Modi and President Trump's recent call has boosted trade deal hopes, though finalising it remains challenging. Negotiations are intense, with potential tariff reductions on Indian expor...

Bank of Thailand urged to address strong baht

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 13d

Don't worry, the #BoT will cut again, at least once if not twice more: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

Business operators have renewed calls for the Bank of Thailand to address the baht's strength, saying an exchange rate of 34-35 baht per US dollar would be more favourable for exports.

Indonesia to build ‘national car’ within three years: Prabowo - Economy - The Jakarta Post

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 13d

#Indonesia's self-sufficiency drive under Prabowo now extending to the car industry: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202...

The President envisions all top-level government officials switching to domestically produced cars to foster national pride, support the local automotive industry and reduce dependence on imported veh...

www.thejakartapost.com

Tariffs on Indian exports to the US to drop 15-16% upon trade deal: Report

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 13d

👀: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy...

#India

India and the US are nearing a trade agreement. Tariffs on Indian exports could drop from 50% to 15-16%. This deal may involve India gradually reducing Russian oil imports. In return, the US is expect...

State budget revenue exceeds 2025 estimate

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 14d

At this point, underspend is a bigger problem in #Vietnam: vietnamnews.vn/economy/1727.... To be fair, there's no reason - cyclically - to spend more than it's doing so.

The State budget revenue as of October 16 hit more than VNĐ2 quadrillion (US$76 billion), exceeding the estimate for the whole 2025 by 2.35 per cent.

vietnamnews.vn

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 14d

Time to lower our S/T inflation forecasts for #Thailand, again, folks: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen.... Lots more space for additional cuts after this latest one.

Diesel price expected to fall by 50 satang

The domestic diesel price is set to be reduced by 0.50 baht a litre on Tuesday, thanks to a decline in global crude oil prices, says Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon.

Danantara to Cut SOEs to Just 300 Firms

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 14d

And this is from 1,000+ (jakartaglobe.id/business/dan...) So, yes, quite ambitious, but commendably so. No we wait.

#Indonesia

Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara plans to cut over 700 state firms to boost efficiency and streamline operations.

jakartaglobe.id

Miguel Chanco @miguelchanco.bsky.social · 14d

The world "if" is doing a lot of work here - "If #India can come up with a more balanced, diversified export portfolio, it will have turned adversity [the 50% tariff] into long-term gain." (economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startup...)

ET Soonicorns Summit 2025: What to expect at the Gurugram Sundowner - The Economic Times

The Gurugram Sundowner on 11th September will unveil the Economic Times Top Soonicorns and Minicorns of Delhi-NCR 2025 report, alongside a power-packed panel on the Delhi–Gurugram–Noida playbook and a...