Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
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Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Yes. Please read @besttrousers.bsky.social thread on why we should not pay attention to the Challenger layoff data that gets so much press. It is mostly noise, "layoff announcements" are press releases not real data.
Need to focus on the BLS data (at least when the govt is open).
Need to focus on the BLS data (at least when the govt is open).
This is very inaccurate, and I don't think CNN or @atrupar.com should be promoting it.
The Challenger data set only captures a small fraction of actual layoffs (monthly layoffs are typically ~2 million) and all the month to month variance is driven by noise, not economic conditions.
The Challenger data set only captures a small fraction of actual layoffs (monthly layoffs are typically ~2 million) and all the month to month variance is driven by noise, not economic conditions.
CNN: "New data shows January was the lowest months for job cuts since the 2009 Great Recession...layoffs way up, hiring ways down. During the month of January, US-based employers announced just over 108,000 layoffs. That's roughly double January 2025. In fact, this is the highest since January 2009"
February 5, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Yes. Please read @besttrousers.bsky.social thread on why we should not pay attention to the Challenger layoff data that gets so much press. It is mostly noise, "layoff announcements" are press releases not real data.
Need to focus on the BLS data (at least when the govt is open).
Need to focus on the BLS data (at least when the govt is open).
Looks like momentum unwinding in unrelated markets is again dragging on stock prices.
Silver and bitcoin are both down sharply today, which are irrelevant to US corporate earnings fundamentals but are heavily influencing sentiment.
Margin calls tend to have cross-market influences.
Silver and bitcoin are both down sharply today, which are irrelevant to US corporate earnings fundamentals but are heavily influencing sentiment.
Margin calls tend to have cross-market influences.
February 5, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Looks like momentum unwinding in unrelated markets is again dragging on stock prices.
Silver and bitcoin are both down sharply today, which are irrelevant to US corporate earnings fundamentals but are heavily influencing sentiment.
Margin calls tend to have cross-market influences.
Silver and bitcoin are both down sharply today, which are irrelevant to US corporate earnings fundamentals but are heavily influencing sentiment.
Margin calls tend to have cross-market influences.
The global central bank trend is definitely moving away from rate cuts. The ECB announced they held rates steady today, with no indication of any near-term moves either way.
The strength of the euro was a factor as well as geopolitical uncertainty and the European economy holding up.
The strength of the euro was a factor as well as geopolitical uncertainty and the European economy holding up.
February 5, 2026 at 1:32 PM
The global central bank trend is definitely moving away from rate cuts. The ECB announced they held rates steady today, with no indication of any near-term moves either way.
The strength of the euro was a factor as well as geopolitical uncertainty and the European economy holding up.
The strength of the euro was a factor as well as geopolitical uncertainty and the European economy holding up.
While Tech is underperforming the rest of the market lately, it is not the result of bad earnings or analyst estimate cuts.
Our aggregate estimate revisions indicators for Tech show continued positive readings (absolute and relative to the market), both equal-weighted and cap-weighted.
Our aggregate estimate revisions indicators for Tech show continued positive readings (absolute and relative to the market), both equal-weighted and cap-weighted.
February 4, 2026 at 7:18 PM
While Tech is underperforming the rest of the market lately, it is not the result of bad earnings or analyst estimate cuts.
Our aggregate estimate revisions indicators for Tech show continued positive readings (absolute and relative to the market), both equal-weighted and cap-weighted.
Our aggregate estimate revisions indicators for Tech show continued positive readings (absolute and relative to the market), both equal-weighted and cap-weighted.
More selling in Tech and rotating into other areas going on today as small-caps outperform large-caps.
AMD getting crushed after beating estimates but disappointing guidance, hurting Semis.
ISM Services report was mixed, New Orders and Prices going the wrong way but the headline figure was fine.
AMD getting crushed after beating estimates but disappointing guidance, hurting Semis.
ISM Services report was mixed, New Orders and Prices going the wrong way but the headline figure was fine.
February 4, 2026 at 3:09 PM
More selling in Tech and rotating into other areas going on today as small-caps outperform large-caps.
AMD getting crushed after beating estimates but disappointing guidance, hurting Semis.
ISM Services report was mixed, New Orders and Prices going the wrong way but the headline figure was fine.
AMD getting crushed after beating estimates but disappointing guidance, hurting Semis.
ISM Services report was mixed, New Orders and Prices going the wrong way but the headline figure was fine.
The destruction in the Software industry continues, with the S&P 500 Software industry down -26% from its Oct. 28th peak.
That's why the S&P 500 is now basically unchanged over that time.
Per Bloomberg, Software (~10% index weight) has knocked -2.6% from the S&P 500 return by itself, worst by far.
That's why the S&P 500 is now basically unchanged over that time.
Per Bloomberg, Software (~10% index weight) has knocked -2.6% from the S&P 500 return by itself, worst by far.
February 3, 2026 at 8:50 PM
The destruction in the Software industry continues, with the S&P 500 Software industry down -26% from its Oct. 28th peak.
That's why the S&P 500 is now basically unchanged over that time.
Per Bloomberg, Software (~10% index weight) has knocked -2.6% from the S&P 500 return by itself, worst by far.
That's why the S&P 500 is now basically unchanged over that time.
Per Bloomberg, Software (~10% index weight) has knocked -2.6% from the S&P 500 return by itself, worst by far.
Big Tech getting knocked down today, mostly Semis and Software, which is dragging the broader market down.
Bitcoin/crypto is also down sharply again, with Bitcoin down to $74K, touching lowest since Nov 2024.
Oil is up somewhat on news from Iran (drone shot down), but not a major market mover.
Bitcoin/crypto is also down sharply again, with Bitcoin down to $74K, touching lowest since Nov 2024.
Oil is up somewhat on news from Iran (drone shot down), but not a major market mover.
February 3, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Big Tech getting knocked down today, mostly Semis and Software, which is dragging the broader market down.
Bitcoin/crypto is also down sharply again, with Bitcoin down to $74K, touching lowest since Nov 2024.
Oil is up somewhat on news from Iran (drone shot down), but not a major market mover.
Bitcoin/crypto is also down sharply again, with Bitcoin down to $74K, touching lowest since Nov 2024.
Oil is up somewhat on news from Iran (drone shot down), but not a major market mover.
Australia raised rates today, as many had expected, now clearly going against the trend of other major central banks except Japan.
Inflation in Australia is still elevated vs target (3.4%), and the labor market there is fairly tight. Another hike in May now looks likely.
Inflation in Australia is still elevated vs target (3.4%), and the labor market there is fairly tight. Another hike in May now looks likely.
February 3, 2026 at 1:09 PM
Australia raised rates today, as many had expected, now clearly going against the trend of other major central banks except Japan.
Inflation in Australia is still elevated vs target (3.4%), and the labor market there is fairly tight. Another hike in May now looks likely.
Inflation in Australia is still elevated vs target (3.4%), and the labor market there is fairly tight. Another hike in May now looks likely.
Rate cuts looking less likely globally in the next few months.
Current market pricing:
US Fed: nothing until at least June, maybe a 2nd cut in H2
Bank of Canada: nothing all year
European Central Bank: nothing all year
Bank of England: maybe 1 rate cut by April, no more than 2 all year
Current market pricing:
US Fed: nothing until at least June, maybe a 2nd cut in H2
Bank of Canada: nothing all year
European Central Bank: nothing all year
Bank of England: maybe 1 rate cut by April, no more than 2 all year
February 2, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Rate cuts looking less likely globally in the next few months.
Current market pricing:
US Fed: nothing until at least June, maybe a 2nd cut in H2
Bank of Canada: nothing all year
European Central Bank: nothing all year
Bank of England: maybe 1 rate cut by April, no more than 2 all year
Current market pricing:
US Fed: nothing until at least June, maybe a 2nd cut in H2
Bank of Canada: nothing all year
European Central Bank: nothing all year
Bank of England: maybe 1 rate cut by April, no more than 2 all year
Sad that apparently we are going to have another delay in the monthly jobs report due to the current partial government shutdown that affects the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unclear so far exactly how long the delay will be and if data collection will be significantly affected.
Unclear so far exactly how long the delay will be and if data collection will be significantly affected.
February 2, 2026 at 7:54 PM
Sad that apparently we are going to have another delay in the monthly jobs report due to the current partial government shutdown that affects the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unclear so far exactly how long the delay will be and if data collection will be significantly affected.
Unclear so far exactly how long the delay will be and if data collection will be significantly affected.
Despite the continued wobbles in precious metals and crypto, stocks (which have earnings) have rebounded pretty well today so far, with Tech positive (though split) and small-caps leading.
Energy is lagging on the sharp drop in crude as tensions around Iran have (again) eased.
Energy is lagging on the sharp drop in crude as tensions around Iran have (again) eased.
February 2, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Despite the continued wobbles in precious metals and crypto, stocks (which have earnings) have rebounded pretty well today so far, with Tech positive (though split) and small-caps leading.
Energy is lagging on the sharp drop in crude as tensions around Iran have (again) eased.
Energy is lagging on the sharp drop in crude as tensions around Iran have (again) eased.
Looks like we are again all metals and crypto traders today.
Stocks, silver/gold, and crypto all moving together, and the only thing connecting them is speculative positioning (margin calls) and sentiment.
Earnings reports have been pretty good overall for Q4 so far.
Stocks, silver/gold, and crypto all moving together, and the only thing connecting them is speculative positioning (margin calls) and sentiment.
Earnings reports have been pretty good overall for Q4 so far.
February 2, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Looks like we are again all metals and crypto traders today.
Stocks, silver/gold, and crypto all moving together, and the only thing connecting them is speculative positioning (margin calls) and sentiment.
Earnings reports have been pretty good overall for Q4 so far.
Stocks, silver/gold, and crypto all moving together, and the only thing connecting them is speculative positioning (margin calls) and sentiment.
Earnings reports have been pretty good overall for Q4 so far.
While the news about Warsh is heavily outweighed in markets by other things lately (metals, Big Tech/AI), he is often cited as worrying a lot about the Fed's balance sheet.
But the Fed has already reduced its balance sheet a lot relative to the stock of Treasuries, seems like a misplaced worry.
But the Fed has already reduced its balance sheet a lot relative to the stock of Treasuries, seems like a misplaced worry.
February 2, 2026 at 2:09 PM
While the news about Warsh is heavily outweighed in markets by other things lately (metals, Big Tech/AI), he is often cited as worrying a lot about the Fed's balance sheet.
But the Fed has already reduced its balance sheet a lot relative to the stock of Treasuries, seems like a misplaced worry.
But the Fed has already reduced its balance sheet a lot relative to the stock of Treasuries, seems like a misplaced worry.
Weekend backgrounder from Mill Street’s stock selection work, which uses earnings estimate activity as key driver.
Indeed, our global stock selection tool is called MAER, from its original name, the Monitor of Analysts Earnings Revisions. Not the best name, but descriptive . . .
Indeed, our global stock selection tool is called MAER, from its original name, the Monitor of Analysts Earnings Revisions. Not the best name, but descriptive . . .
a man says that 's not so bad right while wearing glasses
ALT: a man says that 's not so bad right while wearing glasses
media.tenor.com
February 1, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Weekend backgrounder from Mill Street’s stock selection work, which uses earnings estimate activity as key driver.
Indeed, our global stock selection tool is called MAER, from its original name, the Monitor of Analysts Earnings Revisions. Not the best name, but descriptive . . .
Indeed, our global stock selection tool is called MAER, from its original name, the Monitor of Analysts Earnings Revisions. Not the best name, but descriptive . . .
Bitcoin is plunging today in thin trading (currently ~$78K) along with the broader crypto market.
No obvious reason for it, but it's not really my space.
Bloomberg's article about it today does a nice job of summarizing how Bitcoin/crypto has failed to meet oft-stated objectives lately.
No obvious reason for it, but it's not really my space.
Bloomberg's article about it today does a nice job of summarizing how Bitcoin/crypto has failed to meet oft-stated objectives lately.
January 31, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Bitcoin is plunging today in thin trading (currently ~$78K) along with the broader crypto market.
No obvious reason for it, but it's not really my space.
Bloomberg's article about it today does a nice job of summarizing how Bitcoin/crypto has failed to meet oft-stated objectives lately.
No obvious reason for it, but it's not really my space.
Bloomberg's article about it today does a nice job of summarizing how Bitcoin/crypto has failed to meet oft-stated objectives lately.
Looks like the broad stock market actually held up better than might have been expected given the insanity in the momentum space in metals and memory makers, and on a Friday.
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) down -0.2% is not bad, cap-weighted indices were worse, with both NDX and Russell 2000 down 1%+
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) down -0.2% is not bad, cap-weighted indices were worse, with both NDX and Russell 2000 down 1%+
January 30, 2026 at 9:22 PM
Looks like the broad stock market actually held up better than might have been expected given the insanity in the momentum space in metals and memory makers, and on a Friday.
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) down -0.2% is not bad, cap-weighted indices were worse, with both NDX and Russell 2000 down 1%+
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) down -0.2% is not bad, cap-weighted indices were worse, with both NDX and Russell 2000 down 1%+
Stocks down today, small-caps lagging.
Biggest contributors to the S&P 500 at the moment:
Negative
META, KLAC, AMD, NVDA, APP
Positive
TSLA, VZ, LLY, AVGO, GE
Fed news not a big market mover, precious metals and Tech earnings are the drivers.
Biggest contributors to the S&P 500 at the moment:
Negative
META, KLAC, AMD, NVDA, APP
Positive
TSLA, VZ, LLY, AVGO, GE
Fed news not a big market mover, precious metals and Tech earnings are the drivers.
January 30, 2026 at 7:16 PM
Stocks down today, small-caps lagging.
Biggest contributors to the S&P 500 at the moment:
Negative
META, KLAC, AMD, NVDA, APP
Positive
TSLA, VZ, LLY, AVGO, GE
Fed news not a big market mover, precious metals and Tech earnings are the drivers.
Biggest contributors to the S&P 500 at the moment:
Negative
META, KLAC, AMD, NVDA, APP
Positive
TSLA, VZ, LLY, AVGO, GE
Fed news not a big market mover, precious metals and Tech earnings are the drivers.
Clients often ask about earnings season results, so I have put together broader data from Factset on “beat rates” for US and global stocks in our database (beyond just the usual S&P 500 figures).
Big story so far is US small-cap results better than recent quarters, large-caps fine but less strong.
Big story so far is US small-cap results better than recent quarters, large-caps fine but less strong.
January 30, 2026 at 3:51 PM
Clients often ask about earnings season results, so I have put together broader data from Factset on “beat rates” for US and global stocks in our database (beyond just the usual S&P 500 figures).
Big story so far is US small-cap results better than recent quarters, large-caps fine but less strong.
Big story so far is US small-cap results better than recent quarters, large-caps fine but less strong.
Perhaps less of a focus, but PPI out today came in above consensus. Yr/yr inflation for December was 3.0% for headline (final demand), 3.3% ex food and energy, and 3.5% ex food energy and trade.
Inflation data still noisy after the shutdown but supports the view of no Fed rate cuts.
Inflation data still noisy after the shutdown but supports the view of no Fed rate cuts.
January 30, 2026 at 3:40 PM
Perhaps less of a focus, but PPI out today came in above consensus. Yr/yr inflation for December was 3.0% for headline (final demand), 3.3% ex food and energy, and 3.5% ex food energy and trade.
Inflation data still noisy after the shutdown but supports the view of no Fed rate cuts.
Inflation data still noisy after the shutdown but supports the view of no Fed rate cuts.
My view for a while has been that fiscal policy (broadly defined) is more important than monetary policy for the economy, but markets often focus more on monetary policy since it is easier to bet on and more salient.
Still true now. Taxes/spending/trade/immigration/etc will dominate rate changes.
Still true now. Taxes/spending/trade/immigration/etc will dominate rate changes.
January 30, 2026 at 1:31 PM
My view for a while has been that fiscal policy (broadly defined) is more important than monetary policy for the economy, but markets often focus more on monetary policy since it is easier to bet on and more salient.
Still true now. Taxes/spending/trade/immigration/etc will dominate rate changes.
Still true now. Taxes/spending/trade/immigration/etc will dominate rate changes.
Interesting. Tillis (key vote on Senate Banking Committee that deals with Fed Chair confirmation) apparently is right out there still saying he will hold up any confirmations until Trump's stupid legal threat to the Fed is ended.
(h/t @ivanthek.bsky.social for not making me look at X)
(h/t @ivanthek.bsky.social for not making me look at X)
January 30, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Interesting. Tillis (key vote on Senate Banking Committee that deals with Fed Chair confirmation) apparently is right out there still saying he will hold up any confirmations until Trump's stupid legal threat to the Fed is ended.
(h/t @ivanthek.bsky.social for not making me look at X)
(h/t @ivanthek.bsky.social for not making me look at X)
So apparently Trump has picked Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair.
His reputation is as a hawk (leans to tighter monetary policy), but Trump wants easy policy, so his views may have "evolved".
Stock and bond markets seem ok with it thus far, stocks mostly responding to earnings news.
His reputation is as a hawk (leans to tighter monetary policy), but Trump wants easy policy, so his views may have "evolved".
Stock and bond markets seem ok with it thus far, stocks mostly responding to earnings news.
January 30, 2026 at 1:08 PM
So apparently Trump has picked Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair.
His reputation is as a hawk (leans to tighter monetary policy), but Trump wants easy policy, so his views may have "evolved".
Stock and bond markets seem ok with it thus far, stocks mostly responding to earnings news.
His reputation is as a hawk (leans to tighter monetary policy), but Trump wants easy policy, so his views may have "evolved".
Stock and bond markets seem ok with it thus far, stocks mostly responding to earnings news.
After all that, a flattish day in the end for stocks, and gold ended up about where it started this morning.
The S&P 500, both equal- and cap-weighted, was little changed, as was the Russell 2000.
7 sectors up, 4 down, Tech the big drag but down much less than this morning.
The S&P 500, both equal- and cap-weighted, was little changed, as was the Russell 2000.
7 sectors up, 4 down, Tech the big drag but down much less than this morning.
January 29, 2026 at 10:29 PM
After all that, a flattish day in the end for stocks, and gold ended up about where it started this morning.
The S&P 500, both equal- and cap-weighted, was little changed, as was the Russell 2000.
7 sectors up, 4 down, Tech the big drag but down much less than this morning.
The S&P 500, both equal- and cap-weighted, was little changed, as was the Russell 2000.
7 sectors up, 4 down, Tech the big drag but down much less than this morning.
MSFT and NOW getting much of the attention in the Software space today, but it is indeed a very broad-based decline.
20 of the 22 stocks in the S&P 500 Software industry are down.
Only Applovin and Fair Isaac (earnings beat) are up.
20 of the 22 stocks in the S&P 500 Software industry are down.
Only Applovin and Fair Isaac (earnings beat) are up.
January 29, 2026 at 6:08 PM
MSFT and NOW getting much of the attention in the Software space today, but it is indeed a very broad-based decline.
20 of the 22 stocks in the S&P 500 Software industry are down.
Only Applovin and Fair Isaac (earnings beat) are up.
20 of the 22 stocks in the S&P 500 Software industry are down.
Only Applovin and Fair Isaac (earnings beat) are up.
The metals reversal may be tied to Iran trying to de-escalate with talks in Turkey, per this article.
Presumably if geopolitical risk was an excuse for precious metals buying, this would be an excuse to sell.
Momentum trades don't have to make perfect sense
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Presumably if geopolitical risk was an excuse for precious metals buying, this would be an excuse to sell.
Momentum trades don't have to make perfect sense
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Iran seeks to avert US military action with talks in Ankara
Ankara hosts urgent mediation as Trump’s threats mount and Tehran weighs painful compromises to avoid conflict
www.theguardian.com
January 29, 2026 at 4:32 PM
The metals reversal may be tied to Iran trying to de-escalate with talks in Turkey, per this article.
Presumably if geopolitical risk was an excuse for precious metals buying, this would be an excuse to sell.
Momentum trades don't have to make perfect sense
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Presumably if geopolitical risk was an excuse for precious metals buying, this would be an excuse to sell.
Momentum trades don't have to make perfect sense
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...