Mill Street Research
@millstreetresearch.com
Mill Street Research strategist Sam Burns, CFA, provides proprietary institutional research & tools on asset allocation, stock selection and the economy.
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Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Mill Street Research is an independent boutique investment research firm, founded near Boston in 2016 by Chief Strategist Sam Burns, CFA. The research covers asset allocation and global quantitative stock selection. 1/8
Another day when Oracle makes Big Tech (mostly hardware) nervous, but the broad market holds up ok.
Semiconductor index (SOX) down -3.9% but S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) down just -0.15%.
Five SPX sectors higher, Energy getting a 2% bounce today.
Semiconductor index (SOX) down -3.9% but S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) down just -0.15%.
Five SPX sectors higher, Energy getting a 2% bounce today.
December 17, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Another day when Oracle makes Big Tech (mostly hardware) nervous, but the broad market holds up ok.
Semiconductor index (SOX) down -3.9% but S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) down just -0.15%.
Five SPX sectors higher, Energy getting a 2% bounce today.
Semiconductor index (SOX) down -3.9% but S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) down just -0.15%.
Five SPX sectors higher, Energy getting a 2% bounce today.
Crude oil prices falling sharply today, with the 12-month NYMEX strip (avg. of next 12 monthly futures prices) at what would be it lowest close since early 2021.
Supply continues to outpace demand globally, and futures prices are in contango, i.e., near-term prices below long-term future prices.
Supply continues to outpace demand globally, and futures prices are in contango, i.e., near-term prices below long-term future prices.
December 16, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Crude oil prices falling sharply today, with the 12-month NYMEX strip (avg. of next 12 monthly futures prices) at what would be it lowest close since early 2021.
Supply continues to outpace demand globally, and futures prices are in contango, i.e., near-term prices below long-term future prices.
Supply continues to outpace demand globally, and futures prices are in contango, i.e., near-term prices below long-term future prices.
If you're wondering why the "vibes" seem bad for the labor market (and economy in general), one reason (besides tariffs/inflation, immigration, health care, etc. etc.) is that the "underemployment rate" (U-6 rate, white line) has risen much more than the headline (U-3) rate (blue line) this year.
December 16, 2025 at 2:27 PM
If you're wondering why the "vibes" seem bad for the labor market (and economy in general), one reason (besides tariffs/inflation, immigration, health care, etc. etc.) is that the "underemployment rate" (U-6 rate, white line) has risen much more than the headline (U-3) rate (blue line) this year.
Looks like a messy set of economic data out today, no surprise after the shutdown.
First, payrolls:
Total nonfarm payrolls +64K in Nov, and -105K in October.
October losses were all federal government jobs (DOGE), a massive -162K drop.
Private sector was +69K in Nov. and +52K in Oct.
First, payrolls:
Total nonfarm payrolls +64K in Nov, and -105K in October.
October losses were all federal government jobs (DOGE), a massive -162K drop.
Private sector was +69K in Nov. and +52K in Oct.
December 16, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Looks like a messy set of economic data out today, no surprise after the shutdown.
First, payrolls:
Total nonfarm payrolls +64K in Nov, and -105K in October.
October losses were all federal government jobs (DOGE), a massive -162K drop.
Private sector was +69K in Nov. and +52K in Oct.
First, payrolls:
Total nonfarm payrolls +64K in Nov, and -105K in October.
October losses were all federal government jobs (DOGE), a massive -162K drop.
Private sector was +69K in Nov. and +52K in Oct.
Stocks mixed today: Russell 2000 (low quality small-cap) and some Tech struggle with crypto falling. Bitcoin back around $86K.
Broader market ok, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) about unchanged.
Basically, Broadcom and Apple down and NVIDIA and Tesla up, so S&P 500 is marginally down.
Broader market ok, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) about unchanged.
Basically, Broadcom and Apple down and NVIDIA and Tesla up, so S&P 500 is marginally down.
December 15, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Stocks mixed today: Russell 2000 (low quality small-cap) and some Tech struggle with crypto falling. Bitcoin back around $86K.
Broader market ok, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) about unchanged.
Basically, Broadcom and Apple down and NVIDIA and Tesla up, so S&P 500 is marginally down.
Broader market ok, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) about unchanged.
Basically, Broadcom and Apple down and NVIDIA and Tesla up, so S&P 500 is marginally down.
First Oracle, now Broadcom (AVGO) is the company causing issues for Big Tech.
AVGO beat earnings estimates but investors picked apart its backlog and margin story, down -10% today.
The broader market is, again, holding up better amid ongoing rotation. S&P 500 equal-weight only down -0.15%.
AVGO beat earnings estimates but investors picked apart its backlog and margin story, down -10% today.
The broader market is, again, holding up better amid ongoing rotation. S&P 500 equal-weight only down -0.15%.
December 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
First Oracle, now Broadcom (AVGO) is the company causing issues for Big Tech.
AVGO beat earnings estimates but investors picked apart its backlog and margin story, down -10% today.
The broader market is, again, holding up better amid ongoing rotation. S&P 500 equal-weight only down -0.15%.
AVGO beat earnings estimates but investors picked apart its backlog and margin story, down -10% today.
The broader market is, again, holding up better amid ongoing rotation. S&P 500 equal-weight only down -0.15%.
Mill Street started publishing the Weekly Roundup report in January 2023. It includes a list of 20 high-ranked stocks from the Russell 1000 as buy ideas and 20 low-ranked stocks as avoid ideas.
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
December 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Mill Street started publishing the Weekly Roundup report in January 2023. It includes a list of 20 high-ranked stocks from the Russell 1000 as buy ideas and 20 low-ranked stocks as avoid ideas.
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
We periodically get questions about how those stock ideas would have theoretically performed:
More rotation in equities today.
Oracle in the news, down a massive -14% today and driving the Big Tech space lower on worries about its AI capex (apparently now that can be a bad thing).
Rest of the market up, though. Russell 2000 +0.5%, S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) up 0.5%, 7 of 11 sectors up.
Oracle in the news, down a massive -14% today and driving the Big Tech space lower on worries about its AI capex (apparently now that can be a bad thing).
Rest of the market up, though. Russell 2000 +0.5%, S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) up 0.5%, 7 of 11 sectors up.
December 11, 2025 at 4:12 PM
More rotation in equities today.
Oracle in the news, down a massive -14% today and driving the Big Tech space lower on worries about its AI capex (apparently now that can be a bad thing).
Rest of the market up, though. Russell 2000 +0.5%, S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) up 0.5%, 7 of 11 sectors up.
Oracle in the news, down a massive -14% today and driving the Big Tech space lower on worries about its AI capex (apparently now that can be a bad thing).
Rest of the market up, though. Russell 2000 +0.5%, S&P 500 Equal-Weight (RSP) up 0.5%, 7 of 11 sectors up.
Market seems to like what Powell had to say, at least for now.
Stocks up, small-caps leading.
Probably no cut in January, but Fed buying T-bills to keep bank reserves up.
Suggests inflation mostly due to tariffs, labor market slowing, implies more rate cuts than the 1 next year in the dot plot.
Stocks up, small-caps leading.
Probably no cut in January, but Fed buying T-bills to keep bank reserves up.
Suggests inflation mostly due to tariffs, labor market slowing, implies more rate cuts than the 1 next year in the dot plot.
December 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Market seems to like what Powell had to say, at least for now.
Stocks up, small-caps leading.
Probably no cut in January, but Fed buying T-bills to keep bank reserves up.
Suggests inflation mostly due to tariffs, labor market slowing, implies more rate cuts than the 1 next year in the dot plot.
Stocks up, small-caps leading.
Probably no cut in January, but Fed buying T-bills to keep bank reserves up.
Suggests inflation mostly due to tariffs, labor market slowing, implies more rate cuts than the 1 next year in the dot plot.
Fed cut rates 25bp as expected, but had 3 dissents, which is quite unusual.
Two dissents (Goolsbee and Schmid) voted for no change, while one (Miran, of course) voted for 50bp.
Statement suggests a high bar for a January cut.
Fed will buy $40B of T-bills for money market plumbing purposes.
Two dissents (Goolsbee and Schmid) voted for no change, while one (Miran, of course) voted for 50bp.
Statement suggests a high bar for a January cut.
Fed will buy $40B of T-bills for money market plumbing purposes.
December 10, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Fed cut rates 25bp as expected, but had 3 dissents, which is quite unusual.
Two dissents (Goolsbee and Schmid) voted for no change, while one (Miran, of course) voted for 50bp.
Statement suggests a high bar for a January cut.
Fed will buy $40B of T-bills for money market plumbing purposes.
Two dissents (Goolsbee and Schmid) voted for no change, while one (Miran, of course) voted for 50bp.
Statement suggests a high bar for a January cut.
Fed will buy $40B of T-bills for money market plumbing purposes.
Fed day today so markets will likely be quiet until 2pm ET.
Everyone expects a 25bp cut, but the commentary about what comes next will be closely watched.
And still lots of talk about who the next Fed chair will be.
Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has not said who will replace him.
Everyone expects a 25bp cut, but the commentary about what comes next will be closely watched.
And still lots of talk about who the next Fed chair will be.
Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has not said who will replace him.
December 10, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Fed day today so markets will likely be quiet until 2pm ET.
Everyone expects a 25bp cut, but the commentary about what comes next will be closely watched.
And still lots of talk about who the next Fed chair will be.
Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has not said who will replace him.
Everyone expects a 25bp cut, but the commentary about what comes next will be closely watched.
And still lots of talk about who the next Fed chair will be.
Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has not said who will replace him.
Another notable move today is ExxonMobil (XOM) which is rising on news it raised its longer-term earnings projections for 2026-30.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
December 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Another notable move today is ExxonMobil (XOM) which is rising on news it raised its longer-term earnings projections for 2026-30.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
This is helping the S&P 500 Energy sector today, even though crude oil prices are down again and hovering near the low end of their longer-term range.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) is down sharply today on news of higher than expected expenses, a surprise for a company where analysts have been raising earnings estimates consistently for months.
This seems company-specific as other banks are mixed to higher, with the BKX index flat despite JPM's decline.
This seems company-specific as other banks are mixed to higher, with the BKX index flat despite JPM's decline.
December 9, 2025 at 7:22 PM
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) is down sharply today on news of higher than expected expenses, a surprise for a company where analysts have been raising earnings estimates consistently for months.
This seems company-specific as other banks are mixed to higher, with the BKX index flat despite JPM's decline.
This seems company-specific as other banks are mixed to higher, with the BKX index flat despite JPM's decline.
New Blog Post
www.millstreetresearch.com/divergence-i...
I highlight recent signs of a divergence between the Tech-related sectors in the S&P 500: Technology (ticker XLK) and Communication Services (XLC)
Earnings trends for XLC are weakening while XLK is holding strong.
www.millstreetresearch.com/divergence-i...
I highlight recent signs of a divergence between the Tech-related sectors in the S&P 500: Technology (ticker XLK) and Communication Services (XLC)
Earnings trends for XLC are weakening while XLK is holding strong.
Divergence in the Tech space: Technology vs Communication Services - Mill Street Research
The Tech-related space remains the focus in the US, and we have recently noted a growing divergence between the Technology sector and its cousin Communication Services in the S&P 500: Tech remains str...
www.millstreetresearch.com
December 8, 2025 at 9:17 PM
New Blog Post
www.millstreetresearch.com/divergence-i...
I highlight recent signs of a divergence between the Tech-related sectors in the S&P 500: Technology (ticker XLK) and Communication Services (XLC)
Earnings trends for XLC are weakening while XLK is holding strong.
www.millstreetresearch.com/divergence-i...
I highlight recent signs of a divergence between the Tech-related sectors in the S&P 500: Technology (ticker XLK) and Communication Services (XLC)
Earnings trends for XLC are weakening while XLK is holding strong.
Stocks getting weaker as the day goes on today, with small-caps holding up better than large-caps.
NFLX is down after PSKY jumped in with hostile bid for WBD.
TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL all weighing on the indices.
NVDA up on news it might get to sell its chips to China.
MSFT and AVGO also up.
NFLX is down after PSKY jumped in with hostile bid for WBD.
TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL all weighing on the indices.
NVDA up on news it might get to sell its chips to China.
MSFT and AVGO also up.
December 8, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Stocks getting weaker as the day goes on today, with small-caps holding up better than large-caps.
NFLX is down after PSKY jumped in with hostile bid for WBD.
TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL all weighing on the indices.
NVDA up on news it might get to sell its chips to China.
MSFT and AVGO also up.
NFLX is down after PSKY jumped in with hostile bid for WBD.
TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL all weighing on the indices.
NVDA up on news it might get to sell its chips to China.
MSFT and AVGO also up.
Another day of internal rotation in equities, with NASDAQ-100 up and Russell 2000 down, but neither very much.
Crypto getting hit today, with bitcoin back below $90K, a bit of a drag.
Retailers are up again, with XRT up 1.7% today and up 12% since Nov. 20th. ULTA and VSCO lead with ~13% gains.
Crypto getting hit today, with bitcoin back below $90K, a bit of a drag.
Retailers are up again, with XRT up 1.7% today and up 12% since Nov. 20th. ULTA and VSCO lead with ~13% gains.
December 5, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Another day of internal rotation in equities, with NASDAQ-100 up and Russell 2000 down, but neither very much.
Crypto getting hit today, with bitcoin back below $90K, a bit of a drag.
Retailers are up again, with XRT up 1.7% today and up 12% since Nov. 20th. ULTA and VSCO lead with ~13% gains.
Crypto getting hit today, with bitcoin back below $90K, a bit of a drag.
Retailers are up again, with XRT up 1.7% today and up 12% since Nov. 20th. ULTA and VSCO lead with ~13% gains.
September PCE data finally released today showed income and spending up 0.3-0.4%, basically in line with inflation for the month.
Core PCE inflation was +0.2% in September and 2.8% Y/Y, little changed from the August readings.
Real spending was zero in Sept. and revised lower (to 0.2%) for Aug.
Core PCE inflation was +0.2% in September and 2.8% Y/Y, little changed from the August readings.
Real spending was zero in Sept. and revised lower (to 0.2%) for Aug.
December 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
September PCE data finally released today showed income and spending up 0.3-0.4%, basically in line with inflation for the month.
Core PCE inflation was +0.2% in September and 2.8% Y/Y, little changed from the August readings.
Real spending was zero in Sept. and revised lower (to 0.2%) for Aug.
Core PCE inflation was +0.2% in September and 2.8% Y/Y, little changed from the August readings.
Real spending was zero in Sept. and revised lower (to 0.2%) for Aug.
META in the news, up 4% on news it is making big cuts to its flailing Metaverse group.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
December 4, 2025 at 4:01 PM
META in the news, up 4% on news it is making big cuts to its flailing Metaverse group.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
Analysts had moved to cutting EPS estimates in recent weeks and it has underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, so it scores poorly on our MAER stock selection model.
Probably a chance to sell-the-bounce.
I'm looking forward to joining Nicole Petallides on SchwabNetwork at 9:10am ET today to discuss markets and more.
schwabnetwork.com
schwabnetwork.com
Market News & Programming for Investors | Schwab Network
Schwab Network empowers investors with market news and programming that interprets real-time market insights, strategy tips, and platform tools.
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December 4, 2025 at 1:39 PM
I'm looking forward to joining Nicole Petallides on SchwabNetwork at 9:10am ET today to discuss markets and more.
schwabnetwork.com
schwabnetwork.com
A day for small-caps today while big Tech lags, with Russell 2000 up 1.5% while S&P 500 up 0.3% and NASDAQ-100 barely positive after trading lower this morning.
MSFT, NVDA, NFLX, AVGO, and AMZN weighing on NDX and SPX.
TSLA, GOOG, PLTR helping the S&P 500 along with UNH, XOM, ABBV, and WMT.
MSFT, NVDA, NFLX, AVGO, and AMZN weighing on NDX and SPX.
TSLA, GOOG, PLTR helping the S&P 500 along with UNH, XOM, ABBV, and WMT.
December 3, 2025 at 5:54 PM
A day for small-caps today while big Tech lags, with Russell 2000 up 1.5% while S&P 500 up 0.3% and NASDAQ-100 barely positive after trading lower this morning.
MSFT, NVDA, NFLX, AVGO, and AMZN weighing on NDX and SPX.
TSLA, GOOG, PLTR helping the S&P 500 along with UNH, XOM, ABBV, and WMT.
MSFT, NVDA, NFLX, AVGO, and AMZN weighing on NDX and SPX.
TSLA, GOOG, PLTR helping the S&P 500 along with UNH, XOM, ABBV, and WMT.
ADP employment data out today as we continue to wait for the "real" data from the BLS.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
December 3, 2025 at 4:37 PM
ADP employment data out today as we continue to wait for the "real" data from the BLS.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
While the ADP monthly data does not correlate very well with the better BLS data, over longer periods it tends to show similar trends.
The latest data show that the six-month change in employment is now zero.
Stocks are mostly up today, with Tech leading despite weakness in hard drive makers, as Semis gain.
Small-caps and commodity stocks lagging today.
Crypto is bouncing today after a big selloff, helping Tech, but could feel more pressure as Ponzi-like digital treasury companies come unglued.
Small-caps and commodity stocks lagging today.
Crypto is bouncing today after a big selloff, helping Tech, but could feel more pressure as Ponzi-like digital treasury companies come unglued.
December 2, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Stocks are mostly up today, with Tech leading despite weakness in hard drive makers, as Semis gain.
Small-caps and commodity stocks lagging today.
Crypto is bouncing today after a big selloff, helping Tech, but could feel more pressure as Ponzi-like digital treasury companies come unglued.
Small-caps and commodity stocks lagging today.
Crypto is bouncing today after a big selloff, helping Tech, but could feel more pressure as Ponzi-like digital treasury companies come unglued.
The ISM Manufacturing report was out today and showed a weaker-than-expected reading of 48.2, hampered by lower New Orders and Employment readings.
Prices Paid remained high, also a potential concern for bonds.
Prices Paid remained high, also a potential concern for bonds.
December 1, 2025 at 5:41 PM
The ISM Manufacturing report was out today and showed a weaker-than-expected reading of 48.2, hampered by lower New Orders and Employment readings.
Prices Paid remained high, also a potential concern for bonds.
Prices Paid remained high, also a potential concern for bonds.
Another selloff in crypto that initially weighed on equities, but the crypto drag is weakening as stocks are down only mildly and Semiconductors are up on the day, led by NVIDIA.
Bond yields are up after Japanese yields jumped and a lot of new corporate debt issuance is due.
Bond yields are up after Japanese yields jumped and a lot of new corporate debt issuance is due.
December 1, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Another selloff in crypto that initially weighed on equities, but the crypto drag is weakening as stocks are down only mildly and Semiconductors are up on the day, led by NVIDIA.
Bond yields are up after Japanese yields jumped and a lot of new corporate debt issuance is due.
Bond yields are up after Japanese yields jumped and a lot of new corporate debt issuance is due.
Major indices are having a good pre-Thanksgiving day.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
November 26, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Major indices are having a good pre-Thanksgiving day.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.
More notably, they have largely recovered most of the November declines, with the S&P 500 back to within 1% of its all-time high.
And small-caps have had a rebound as well amid the internal rotation, Russell 2000 also less than 2% from its peak.