Musical Chairs
@musicalchairs.bsky.social
Ugly graphs, insights and outbursts. NZ.
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Musical Chairs
@musicalchairs.bsky.social
· Dec 21
Whose fault is this recession? Let's rank the villains for giggles 🧵
Boss villain is easy, ol' Shock and Orr.
RBNZ took a hero pill in 2020 and went nuts juicing the housing market. Then they took *another* pill in late 2021 and slowed the flow of credit to a trickle through 2023 and 2024. [1/n]
Boss villain is easy, ol' Shock and Orr.
RBNZ took a hero pill in 2020 and went nuts juicing the housing market. Then they took *another* pill in late 2021 and slowed the flow of credit to a trickle through 2023 and 2024. [1/n]
Credit flows are positive again folks - the banks are creating more money out of thin air than they are destroying when we make repayments. Don't worry though, this is how things work - it's how we get more money in the bank in our marvellous modern economy. A few other reckons... [🧵 1/n]
November 28, 2025 at 5:25 AM
Credit flows are positive again folks - the banks are creating more money out of thin air than they are destroying when we make repayments. Don't worry though, this is how things work - it's how we get more money in the bank in our marvellous modern economy. A few other reckons... [🧵 1/n]
Spending is heading up. An inevitable consequence of giving mortgagors more disposable income. What will this mean for things that matter? (🧵 1/n)
November 27, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Spending is heading up. An inevitable consequence of giving mortgagors more disposable income. What will this mean for things that matter? (🧵 1/n)
Another Monetary Policy Statement, another 'whoopsie we over-cooked the whole job crushing thingy'. Forecast GDP still falling away (bye). What else? [1/n]
November 26, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Another Monetary Policy Statement, another 'whoopsie we over-cooked the whole job crushing thingy'. Forecast GDP still falling away (bye). What else? [1/n]
An uptick of hope in the job ads - that little blue prick below the smiley face is a cause for celebration. But, jeez it's a long slog. Few random reckons on the power of RBNZ... (🧵 1/n)
November 25, 2025 at 6:15 PM
An uptick of hope in the job ads - that little blue prick below the smiley face is a cause for celebration. But, jeez it's a long slog. Few random reckons on the power of RBNZ... (🧵 1/n)
You might have seen National propaganda on how much kiwis are saving on mortgage payments. So, quick reality check, and a little explainer...
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
November 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM
You might have seen National propaganda on how much kiwis are saving on mortgage payments. So, quick reality check, and a little explainer...
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
The actual average interest rate on *all* NZ mortgages moves slowly - in large part because most of us plucky mortgagors are on fixed rate deals [🧵1/n]
Wassup with asset sales? Why is a wealth tax a bit meh? Quick 🧵
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
November 22, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Wassup with asset sales? Why is a wealth tax a bit meh? Quick 🧵
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
Glib analogy, but life in the neoliberal economy is like monopoly. You work, earn cash, and pay for things you need as you go round the board. If you earn more than you spend, you can buy an asset - some shares, a house etc... [1/n]
Ah jobs, come on! We have had 18 months of negative annual job growth now. The population has grown by around 60,000 people (despite kiwis fleeing for countries that didn't opt for a deep recession). Remember we need the lines below it break above the white line (standstill). (1/2)
November 21, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Ah jobs, come on! We have had 18 months of negative annual job growth now. The population has grown by around 60,000 people (despite kiwis fleeing for countries that didn't opt for a deep recession). Remember we need the lines below it break above the white line (standstill). (1/2)
Reminder of why rents are reducing. I mean it's good that they are, but it's just because people can't afford to pay more and our population growth is slowing right down. Rents rise in lockstep with wages.
November 19, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Reminder of why rents are reducing. I mean it's good that they are, but it's just because people can't afford to pay more and our population growth is slowing right down. Rents rise in lockstep with wages.
Same tired old ghoul formula...
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
November 14, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Same tired old ghoul formula...
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
1. Define a problem.
2. Add some numbers and smart sounding stuff.
3. Draw the long bow on some reckons.
4. Conclude with the same old 'solutions'... deregulation, reducing universal services, sell assets to offshore investors.
Few offcuts from hungover poking at latest benefit data.
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
November 14, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Few offcuts from hungover poking at latest benefit data.
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
First up, areas with above average increases in people claiming a working-age benefit from Oct 2023 to Oct 2025 (adjusted for population). Surprised by who is the the top? [🧵 1/n]
It would be ironic if my glass half empty takes on the NZ economy proved to be overly optimistic. But, the latest benefits data is really bad. I expected that yellow line to continue to trend down, but, errrm, it isn't.
November 14, 2025 at 5:45 AM
It would be ironic if my glass half empty takes on the NZ economy proved to be overly optimistic. But, the latest benefits data is really bad. I expected that yellow line to continue to trend down, but, errrm, it isn't.
The Govt's rationing speclialist (aka MSD) is overheating trying to constrain benefit spending, but the number of people on a working-age benefit continues to sail way above forecasts. We are watching a permanently scarring event here. Grim.
November 14, 2025 at 3:42 AM
The Govt's rationing speclialist (aka MSD) is overheating trying to constrain benefit spending, but the number of people on a working-age benefit continues to sail way above forecasts. We are watching a permanently scarring event here. Grim.
Weekly jobs update... how's the hopium? I am guessing you could see we're back on track... if the track we're back on is one of those slow grinding uphill kinda tracks. When will the crappening stop? [🧵1/n]
November 13, 2025 at 6:25 AM
Weekly jobs update... how's the hopium? I am guessing you could see we're back on track... if the track we're back on is one of those slow grinding uphill kinda tracks. When will the crappening stop? [🧵1/n]
Bbbbut, I thought everyone was saving a gazillion dollars on their mortgages now? Why aren't the poor people spending all their money? Are they saving up for a ticket outta here?
November 13, 2025 at 5:30 AM
Bbbbut, I thought everyone was saving a gazillion dollars on their mortgages now? Why aren't the poor people spending all their money? Are they saving up for a ticket outta here?
One of my favourite graphs - how we pay higher house prices and help old folks cash out of the ponzi.
November 12, 2025 at 8:44 AM
One of my favourite graphs - how we pay higher house prices and help old folks cash out of the ponzi.
Hmm, so inflation is 3% and Govt is paying a touch under 2.9% interest on its debt. Govt is also getting a fat return on its financial assets... which outweigh its debts by around $70bn. Meanwhile, we can't afford to invest in the country and Treasury are sounding alarm bells!
November 9, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Hmm, so inflation is 3% and Govt is paying a touch under 2.9% interest on its debt. Govt is also getting a fat return on its financial assets... which outweigh its debts by around $70bn. Meanwhile, we can't afford to invest in the country and Treasury are sounding alarm bells!
I'm old enough to remember Treasury officials setting Govt finance within a macro context. Now we get silly 'geeing up the ghouls' scare stories. For a start, all the OECD countries on the left side of this chart have run Govt deficits on average since 2010. It's normal. [🧵1/n]
November 8, 2025 at 8:28 PM
I'm old enough to remember Treasury officials setting Govt finance within a macro context. Now we get silly 'geeing up the ghouls' scare stories. For a start, all the OECD countries on the left side of this chart have run Govt deficits on average since 2010. It's normal. [🧵1/n]
Reposted by Musical Chairs
The Canadien Government has made an ad about the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG terminal & PRGT Pipeline, and it's surprsingly honest and informative.
Honest Government Ad | Ksi Lisims & PRGT Pipeline
YouTube video by thejuicemedia
www.youtube.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:06 AM
The Canadien Government has made an ad about the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG terminal & PRGT Pipeline, and it's surprsingly honest and informative.
Reposted by Musical Chairs
Paywall lifted: At every turn, the Govt has opted for whatever would actually lead to more pollution and a warmer world – even if it costs more, jeopardises NZ’s reputation, overturns a campaign promise or clashes with the Govt’s other priorities.
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
Govt's climate strategy: Let it burn
Comment: The Government has relentlessly pursued policies that boost climate pollution – even if they cost more or jeopardise NZ's reputation, Marc Daalder writes
newsroom.co.nz
November 7, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Paywall lifted: At every turn, the Govt has opted for whatever would actually lead to more pollution and a warmer world – even if it costs more, jeopardises NZ’s reputation, overturns a campaign promise or clashes with the Govt’s other priorities.
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
The long retreat:
newsroom.co.nz/2025/11/07/g...
Regular reminder that RBNZ publish real data on mortgage costs. National and the bank reckonomists love to talk about the costs of *new* mortgages only, but what drives the cost of living is what kiwis *actually* pay on our $384bn mortgage pile. Here's the real data... [🧵1/n]
November 7, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Regular reminder that RBNZ publish real data on mortgage costs. National and the bank reckonomists love to talk about the costs of *new* mortgages only, but what drives the cost of living is what kiwis *actually* pay on our $384bn mortgage pile. Here's the real data... [🧵1/n]
Lol, imagine thinking you could simply restart investment after crashing the construction sector and holding back loads of work. Fafo.
November 7, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Lol, imagine thinking you could simply restart investment after crashing the construction sector and holding back loads of work. Fafo.
RBNZ to the Waitangi Tribunal...
November 5, 2025 at 7:33 PM
RBNZ to the Waitangi Tribunal...
I'll vote for whoever sets a target to get youth unemployment back below 10% in one year. I can't do ten years of centrist, round the next corner drivel. Waiting for businesses to get desperate enough to give young, disengaged or disabled people a job is fkng stupid. There is loads that needs doing.
November 5, 2025 at 7:30 AM
I'll vote for whoever sets a target to get youth unemployment back below 10% in one year. I can't do ten years of centrist, round the next corner drivel. Waiting for businesses to get desperate enough to give young, disengaged or disabled people a job is fkng stupid. There is loads that needs doing.
The trickle down economy is a real thing but it gets described badly. Here's how it actually works:
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
November 3, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The trickle down economy is a real thing but it gets described badly. Here's how it actually works:
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
*First* the taps come on. Govt Spending and Bank Lending inject $ into the economy. Govt pays nurses, teachers, builders etc, banks create $ so kiwis can buy houses & businesses can invest [🧵 1/n]
Another signal that we are about to have another rollercoaster climb in the housing market... or will that steady downward trend in investment (pink) since 2012 win out? Tune in next year to find out.
November 3, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Another signal that we are about to have another rollercoaster climb in the housing market... or will that steady downward trend in investment (pink) since 2012 win out? Tune in next year to find out.