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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 23h

Absolutely. Excellent point.

Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

Absolutely. The question is who is driving what bits of policy and what happens when they pull in their different directions, especially given all the other vagaries of that particular system.

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

I think everyone's adapting. What I want to know is whether they're adapting appropriately, & making the right judgements about how the other (& perhaps other potential adversaries) is adapting/may yet adapt.

Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

I think super important to track what they're saying about what they fear, what they think war looks like, & what they think adversaries will do, as well as what they themselves hope to do & what they actually do. Also crucial to track the disconnects between these & whether & when they narrow. 7/7

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

Relatedly, I was struck by @massdara.bsky.social's description of all the whiz-bangy things Russia thinks will be possible with drones & AI. It reminds me of the creative thinking I've seen over decades following Russian military writing. In line with Adamsky, most of this stuff never happens. 6/7

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

Further, as Dima Adamsky has written, there's a certain comfort in Russia with disconnects between theory & practice. But just because it's comfortable, doesn't mean it translates into effectiveness. 5/7

The Culture of Military Innovation | Stanford University Press

This book studies the impact of cultural factors on the course of military innovations. One would expect that countries accustomed to similar technologies would undergo analogous changes in their perc...

www.sup.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

The strategic culture may just be sticky: it could shift in time. But as @massdara.bsky.social notes, Russia's history of military learning is patchy, & as @gabrielairosa.bsky.social describes, strategic culture is hard to shift, perhaps especially in Russia. 4/7

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

Meanwhile, @massdara.bsky.social describes folks on the front lines & those responsible for putting them there learning from the present & looking to the future of high-tech warfare & new ways of fighting, albeit facing some of Russia's usual military pathologies. So there's some disconnect. 3/7

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

Per @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, Moscow's strategic culture is still looking to a very big (& thus very short) war with NATO, & old school ways of doing things. 2/7

www.cna.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 1d

Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7

How Russia Recovered

What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 2d

The logic of Russian military assistance (including deployments of Wagner and Africa Corps), explained in a short video, with excellent maps, from @crisisgroup.org w/the erudite Pauline Bax narrating! www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...

MAPPING CONFLICT | Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa

YouTube video by International Crisis Group

www.youtube.com

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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 4d

On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan? | International Crisis Group

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit fro...

www.crisisgroup.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 7d

Really important stuff from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social & CNA. Our own assumptions about what others think are bound to get things wrong. Always a good idea to go to the sources. Read the thread, then read the report!

Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 7d

In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...

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Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 7d

In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 8d

Kayla has been there and done that and knows things.

Kayla Williams @kwilliams101.bsky.social · 9d

Random thoughts on Hegseth speech:
- Having done both old-school Army PT and yoga, I would pay a thousand dollars to watch an infantry platoon get absolutely fucking smoked in a hot yoga class
1/

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Kayla Williams @kwilliams101.bsky.social · 9d

Random thoughts on Hegseth speech:
- Having done both old-school Army PT and yoga, I would pay a thousand dollars to watch an infantry platoon get absolutely fucking smoked in a hot yoga class
1/

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 9d

Moldova's parliamentary elections have given ruling party PAS a mandate to keep on keeping on with European integration and EU accession. But there's still a lot of work to do, and some substantial challenges to overcome. My @crisisgroup.org colleague Marta Mucznik explains.

Moldova Votes EU, but Obstacles Clutter Path to Membership | International Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert Marta Mucznik analyses the victory in parliamentary polls of the country’s pro-European integration party and the next steps in the accession process

www.crisisgroup.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 9d

Tell me again how gender (& especially gender performance) isn't relevant to politics (foreign and domestic).

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 10d

On the new @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, I join host Richard Atwood, @luciankim.bsky.social, & @stevepomper.bsky.social to talk Trump's changing rhetoric on Ukraine, how dynamics look from Kyiv, & airspace incursions in Europe. We don't figure it all out, but we cover a lot! Listen in!

What to Make of Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy? | International Crisis Group

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic effo...

www.crisisgroup.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 14d

☺️ Thanks, Kim!

Kimberly Marten @kimberlymarten.bsky.social · 14d

Terrific new @meduza.io “Naked Pravda” podcast from @olyaoliker.bsky.social does the best job I’ve seen of laying out the strategic interaction implications of Russia’s airspace incursions and NATO’s possible responses: meduza.io/en/episodes/...

Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza

In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...

meduza.io

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Kimberly Marten @kimberlymarten.bsky.social · 14d

Terrific new @meduza.io “Naked Pravda” podcast from @olyaoliker.bsky.social does the best job I’ve seen of laying out the strategic interaction implications of Russia’s airspace incursions and NATO’s possible responses: meduza.io/en/episodes/...

Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza

In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...

meduza.io

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François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social · 14d

🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump has an opportunity to avoid the dangers of an unrestrained nuclear arms competition—something he has repeatedly warned about. Will he seize it?

Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org

#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China

Putin just gave Trump the opportunity to maintain nuclear restraint. Will he seize it?

Extending New START will also give time for Trump to work with Russia and China on future arms control accords.

thebulletin.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 14d

Always a pleasure

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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 15d

In a new episode of The Naked Pravda, I speak to @olyaoliker.bsky.social about Russia’s escalating incursions into NATO airspace and how today’s tensions compare to the incident a decade ago when Turkey downed a Russian bomber in Syria. meduza.io/en/episodes/...

Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza

In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...

meduza.io

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 16d

I like Vienna less. Embarrassed to admit I've yet to visit Edinburgh.

Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 16d

Greatest is a high bar, but gotta say that I like it here.

Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan @london.gov.uk · 16d

I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again.

Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐

Graphic with the headline “London is the greatest city in the world” set against a bright view of the River Thames with the Shard, Tower Bridge and the city skyline.

The text celebrates what makes London special: regularly voted the number one city in the world, incredible diversity with over 300 languages spoken, world-class transport, world leader in finance tech and life sciences, best museums and galleries many free to visit, world-leading nightlife, food sport and music for every taste, host to the world’s best sporting events, home to seven Premier League clubs, globally-ranked universities, a city where you can be yourself and love who you love, and a place for everyone.

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Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan @london.gov.uk · 16d

I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again.

Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 16d

New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast starts our 7th season with Belarus, Zapad, & drone warnings. Elissa Jobson & I also ask @kavaleuski.bsky.social whether Lukashenka really thinks he can get space from Moscow by talking to Washington, what prospects exist for political transition, & more!

Elliptical Orbit? Belarusian Foreign Policy in Fraught Times | International Crisis Group

This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Valery Kavaleuski, former Belarusian diplomat and Executive Director of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, about Minsk’s foreign policy, its recent ...

www.crisisgroup.org

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 16d

Letting the treaty just die of its wounds would be bad. This doesn't save it, but creates more space to discuss options for same or other limits in future. Plus it puts onus on US to publicly say yes, we, too, don't want to see the arsenal grow in the next year (even though it wouldn't anyway).

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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 16d

Frankly, each situation is different & empty threats are worse than no threats. So. Better to avoid blanket policies & build & maintain capacity to implement a range of options. Then, each time, you balance costs & benefits, make a choice, & prepare for the inevitable second-guessing after. 6/6

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