James Peacock
@peacockreports.bsky.social
Head Meteorologist at MetSwift, working to revolutionise delivery of weather information.
LinkedIn: https://t.co/pUCAQfAfRP
LinkedIn: https://t.co/pUCAQfAfRP
As the saying goes, a taste of spring is on the way for a large part of Europe late this week & into next.
February 16, 2026 at 5:50 PM
As the saying goes, a taste of spring is on the way for a large part of Europe late this week & into next.
Last night's ECMWF ensemble produced a "what happened there?" moment regarding late February in northern Europe.
The signal for settled, mild weather in the west suddenly vanished in favour of a chilly, unsettled one. To be honest I'd prefer the first option.
The signal for settled, mild weather in the west suddenly vanished in favour of a chilly, unsettled one. To be honest I'd prefer the first option.
February 16, 2026 at 4:41 PM
Last night's ECMWF ensemble produced a "what happened there?" moment regarding late February in northern Europe.
The signal for settled, mild weather in the west suddenly vanished in favour of a chilly, unsettled one. To be honest I'd prefer the first option.
The signal for settled, mild weather in the west suddenly vanished in favour of a chilly, unsettled one. To be honest I'd prefer the first option.
There tends to be quite an offset between EUMETSAT satellite-observed cloud & UK radar network-observed rainfall, as evidenced here over southern England.
AFAIK this is a result of the satellite not being directly above.
AFAIK this is a result of the satellite not being directly above.
February 16, 2026 at 9:17 AM
There tends to be quite an offset between EUMETSAT satellite-observed cloud & UK radar network-observed rainfall, as evidenced here over southern England.
AFAIK this is a result of the satellite not being directly above.
AFAIK this is a result of the satellite not being directly above.
With warmer seas releasing more moisture into the atmosphere & the N. Atlantic being where most of the low pressure systems that visit England & Wales come from, you might expect to see a correlation between N. Atlantic sea surface temperatures & E&W rainfall.
Yet none is seen!
Yet none is seen!
February 15, 2026 at 6:32 PM
With warmer seas releasing more moisture into the atmosphere & the N. Atlantic being where most of the low pressure systems that visit England & Wales come from, you might expect to see a correlation between N. Atlantic sea surface temperatures & E&W rainfall.
Yet none is seen!
Yet none is seen!
Sharp clearance of the wet weather has allowed for a pleasant end to the day in Verwood with the sunshine feeling warm thanks to hardly a breath of wind.
Groundwater is as high as it gets, with many brisk overland flows to be found.
Groundwater is as high as it gets, with many brisk overland flows to be found.
February 15, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Sharp clearance of the wet weather has allowed for a pleasant end to the day in Verwood with the sunshine feeling warm thanks to hardly a breath of wind.
Groundwater is as high as it gets, with many brisk overland flows to be found.
Groundwater is as high as it gets, with many brisk overland flows to be found.
Just what was needed (!), a vigorous tail end to the trailing front.
February 15, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Just what was needed (!), a vigorous tail end to the trailing front.
I've never been happier to see a dry weather signal for most of Iberia.
What's more, that signal not only persists, but gradually expands further north & east during the next fortnight.
What's more, that signal not only persists, but gradually expands further north & east during the next fortnight.
February 14, 2026 at 6:22 PM
I've never been happier to see a dry weather signal for most of Iberia.
What's more, that signal not only persists, but gradually expands further north & east during the next fortnight.
What's more, that signal not only persists, but gradually expands further north & east during the next fortnight.
I'm still keeping an eye on Wed-Thu in southern England.
Forecast modelling has begun to converge on low pressure grazing the southwest with a cold feed from the east *perhaps* leading to some snowfall in the far S/SW of England, maybe Wales.
Very marginal & fiddly... as usual!
Forecast modelling has begun to converge on low pressure grazing the southwest with a cold feed from the east *perhaps* leading to some snowfall in the far S/SW of England, maybe Wales.
Very marginal & fiddly... as usual!
February 14, 2026 at 5:35 PM
I'm still keeping an eye on Wed-Thu in southern England.
Forecast modelling has begun to converge on low pressure grazing the southwest with a cold feed from the east *perhaps* leading to some snowfall in the far S/SW of England, maybe Wales.
Very marginal & fiddly... as usual!
Forecast modelling has begun to converge on low pressure grazing the southwest with a cold feed from the east *perhaps* leading to some snowfall in the far S/SW of England, maybe Wales.
Very marginal & fiddly... as usual!
Today's weather setup in southern England & Wales features numerous areas of converging near-surface wind, leading to slow-moving areas of moist convection.
Result being a lot of rain in some places while others mere miles away see little to none.
Result being a lot of rain in some places while others mere miles away see little to none.
February 13, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Today's weather setup in southern England & Wales features numerous areas of converging near-surface wind, leading to slow-moving areas of moist convection.
Result being a lot of rain in some places while others mere miles away see little to none.
Result being a lot of rain in some places while others mere miles away see little to none.
Judging by some forecast model runs, next Wed-Thu brings a chance of snowfall in southern UK.
However there is a wide spread of scenarios, from cold & dry to mild & wet, so that chance is looking rather small at this time.
However there is a wide spread of scenarios, from cold & dry to mild & wet, so that chance is looking rather small at this time.
February 13, 2026 at 9:50 AM
Judging by some forecast model runs, next Wed-Thu brings a chance of snowfall in southern UK.
However there is a wide spread of scenarios, from cold & dry to mild & wet, so that chance is looking rather small at this time.
However there is a wide spread of scenarios, from cold & dry to mild & wet, so that chance is looking rather small at this time.
An interesting convective feature tracked between Swanage & the Solent this morning.
With the sustained core of very heavy rainfall & distinct outflow to the northeast, it has characteristics of a supercell (of a relatively weak variety - supercells don't always produce severe weather).
With the sustained core of very heavy rainfall & distinct outflow to the northeast, it has characteristics of a supercell (of a relatively weak variety - supercells don't always produce severe weather).
February 13, 2026 at 9:33 AM
An interesting convective feature tracked between Swanage & the Solent this morning.
With the sustained core of very heavy rainfall & distinct outflow to the northeast, it has characteristics of a supercell (of a relatively weak variety - supercells don't always produce severe weather).
With the sustained core of very heavy rainfall & distinct outflow to the northeast, it has characteristics of a supercell (of a relatively weak variety - supercells don't always produce severe weather).
Forecast modelling *might* be starting to converge on a colder, drier scenario for the UK & Ireland next week ~Wednesday onward, but it's a close call with the latest UKMO run, while GFS hasn't got there yet.
In short, the trend is favourable but rather flimsy at this stage.
In short, the trend is favourable but rather flimsy at this stage.
February 12, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Forecast modelling *might* be starting to converge on a colder, drier scenario for the UK & Ireland next week ~Wednesday onward, but it's a close call with the latest UKMO run, while GFS hasn't got there yet.
In short, the trend is favourable but rather flimsy at this stage.
In short, the trend is favourable but rather flimsy at this stage.
A simple timeseries of the Oceanic Niño Index & Relative Oceanic Niño Index used by NOAA / CPC.
You can see just how much long-term warming has biased the ONI toward flagging more instances of El Niño (warm) & fewer of La Niña (cool).
The RONI addresses that very well.
You can see just how much long-term warming has biased the ONI toward flagging more instances of El Niño (warm) & fewer of La Niña (cool).
The RONI addresses that very well.
February 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM
A simple timeseries of the Oceanic Niño Index & Relative Oceanic Niño Index used by NOAA / CPC.
You can see just how much long-term warming has biased the ONI toward flagging more instances of El Niño (warm) & fewer of La Niña (cool).
The RONI addresses that very well.
You can see just how much long-term warming has biased the ONI toward flagging more instances of El Niño (warm) & fewer of La Niña (cool).
The RONI addresses that very well.
GFS is still suggesting that even lowland parts of southern England & Wales could see some falling snow tomorrow evening into the night, albeit not settling much.
However, in my experience the model tends to keep precipitation going too long when colder, drier air is mixing in.
However, in my experience the model tends to keep precipitation going too long when colder, drier air is mixing in.
February 12, 2026 at 1:56 PM
GFS is still suggesting that even lowland parts of southern England & Wales could see some falling snow tomorrow evening into the night, albeit not settling much.
However, in my experience the model tends to keep precipitation going too long when colder, drier air is mixing in.
However, in my experience the model tends to keep precipitation going too long when colder, drier air is mixing in.
Local to me, Feb has so far been characterised by very mild nights (vying with 2024 for record highest mean daily min), a lot of rain (5th wettest), & not much sunshine (3rd dullest).
Reduced heating bills are the only upside to this from my personal perspective.
Reduced heating bills are the only upside to this from my personal perspective.
February 12, 2026 at 10:40 AM
Local to me, Feb has so far been characterised by very mild nights (vying with 2024 for record highest mean daily min), a lot of rain (5th wettest), & not much sunshine (3rd dullest).
Reduced heating bills are the only upside to this from my personal perspective.
Reduced heating bills are the only upside to this from my personal perspective.
Forecast confidence for northern Europe currently falls off a cliff from ~Wednesday.
The overnight det. runs from GFS, ECMWF, & UKMO all have markedly different situations for that time. Each would head in a distinct direction during the following few days.
The overnight det. runs from GFS, ECMWF, & UKMO all have markedly different situations for that time. Each would head in a distinct direction during the following few days.
February 12, 2026 at 9:53 AM
Forecast confidence for northern Europe currently falls off a cliff from ~Wednesday.
The overnight det. runs from GFS, ECMWF, & UKMO all have markedly different situations for that time. Each would head in a distinct direction during the following few days.
The overnight det. runs from GFS, ECMWF, & UKMO all have markedly different situations for that time. Each would head in a distinct direction during the following few days.
Part of why the weather outlook for 2nd half Feb is so uncertain for Europe is the presence of a prolonged displacement of the polar vortex toward Eurasia.
There are signs in the modelling that this may influence surface weather patterns, but to what extent is anyone's guess.
There are signs in the modelling that this may influence surface weather patterns, but to what extent is anyone's guess.
February 11, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Part of why the weather outlook for 2nd half Feb is so uncertain for Europe is the presence of a prolonged displacement of the polar vortex toward Eurasia.
There are signs in the modelling that this may influence surface weather patterns, but to what extent is anyone's guess.
There are signs in the modelling that this may influence surface weather patterns, but to what extent is anyone's guess.
The overnight deterministic ECMWF run featured a nasty bout of weather for the UK & Ireland on Tue 17th Feb. A lot of rain in the sodden southwest, rain-snow mix in north.
Fortunately, there's not a lot of ensemble support. Still, I'll be keeping an eye on the possibility.
Fortunately, there's not a lot of ensemble support. Still, I'll be keeping an eye on the possibility.
February 11, 2026 at 9:58 AM
The overnight deterministic ECMWF run featured a nasty bout of weather for the UK & Ireland on Tue 17th Feb. A lot of rain in the sodden southwest, rain-snow mix in north.
Fortunately, there's not a lot of ensemble support. Still, I'll be keeping an eye on the possibility.
Fortunately, there's not a lot of ensemble support. Still, I'll be keeping an eye on the possibility.
Forecast model ensemble spread doesn't get much wider than this from ECMWF's AI model when we look at late February.
Divergence of runs increases a lot from ~Wed 18th. Within a few days of then, the scenarios range from very cold to very mild.
Divergence of runs increases a lot from ~Wed 18th. Within a few days of then, the scenarios range from very cold to very mild.
February 11, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Forecast model ensemble spread doesn't get much wider than this from ECMWF's AI model when we look at late February.
Divergence of runs increases a lot from ~Wed 18th. Within a few days of then, the scenarios range from very cold to very mild.
Divergence of runs increases a lot from ~Wed 18th. Within a few days of then, the scenarios range from very cold to very mild.
Forecast models suggest a more changeable theme to the UK's weather this Friday onward.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
February 10, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Forecast models suggest a more changeable theme to the UK's weather this Friday onward.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
2026 may have been exceedingly rainy but incredibly there have been worse years historically up to this point.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
February 9, 2026 at 5:18 PM
2026 may have been exceedingly rainy but incredibly there have been worse years historically up to this point.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
While it's not felt much like it by day, it's been a very mild February so far in southern England & Wales.
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
February 9, 2026 at 11:44 AM
While it's not felt much like it by day, it's been a very mild February so far in southern England & Wales.
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
South-western UK looks to see some of this week's highest rainfall totals yet again this week, with Saturday the only day looking to remain dry. Given that some areas have seen near to a typical February's rainfall already, more flooding problems are likely.
February 9, 2026 at 10:33 AM
South-western UK looks to see some of this week's highest rainfall totals yet again this week, with Saturday the only day looking to remain dry. Given that some areas have seen near to a typical February's rainfall already, more flooding problems are likely.
You'll probably see charts like this doing the rounds in the next few days accompanied by talk of lowland snowfall in southern UK this Friday.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
February 9, 2026 at 10:03 AM
You'll probably see charts like this doing the rounds in the next few days accompanied by talk of lowland snowfall in southern UK this Friday.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
28th day in a row with rain here in NE Dorset today, & 33rd out of the past 34 days.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
February 7, 2026 at 12:13 PM
28th day in a row with rain here in NE Dorset today, & 33rd out of the past 34 days.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.