James Peacock
@peacockreports.bsky.social
Head Meteorologist at MetSwift, working to revolutionise delivery of weather information.
LinkedIn: https://t.co/pUCAQfAfRP
LinkedIn: https://t.co/pUCAQfAfRP
Forecast models suggest a more changeable theme to the UK's weather this Friday onward.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
February 10, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Forecast models suggest a more changeable theme to the UK's weather this Friday onward.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
Cold 13th-15th, relatively mild to ~17th, then probably cold(er) for at least a few days.
Also, signs that high pressure visits from time to time, providing some breaks to the rainy weather.
2026 may have been exceedingly rainy but incredibly there have been worse years historically up to this point.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
February 9, 2026 at 5:18 PM
2026 may have been exceedingly rainy but incredibly there have been worse years historically up to this point.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
2014 was on just 1 dry day & didn't see another until 26th February!
January 2025 saw above average rainfall here but with most of it falling in the second half.
While it's not felt much like it by day, it's been a very mild February so far in southern England & Wales.
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
February 9, 2026 at 11:44 AM
While it's not felt much like it by day, it's been a very mild February so far in southern England & Wales.
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
Near average further north.
Well above normal rainfall in many southern & eastern parts.
Very short on sunshine for most.
(www.roostweather.com/ukobs/sun_mo...)
South-western UK looks to see some of this week's highest rainfall totals yet again this week, with Saturday the only day looking to remain dry. Given that some areas have seen near to a typical February's rainfall already, more flooding problems are likely.
February 9, 2026 at 10:33 AM
South-western UK looks to see some of this week's highest rainfall totals yet again this week, with Saturday the only day looking to remain dry. Given that some areas have seen near to a typical February's rainfall already, more flooding problems are likely.
You'll probably see charts like this doing the rounds in the next few days accompanied by talk of lowland snowfall in southern UK this Friday.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
February 9, 2026 at 10:03 AM
You'll probably see charts like this doing the rounds in the next few days accompanied by talk of lowland snowfall in southern UK this Friday.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
However, past experience urges caution: Rarely does cold air sufficiently undercut a weather front to produce much snow as shown here.
28th day in a row with rain here in NE Dorset today, & 33rd out of the past 34 days.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
February 7, 2026 at 12:13 PM
28th day in a row with rain here in NE Dorset today, & 33rd out of the past 34 days.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
However, 4th February was arguably a break, as the only rain fell after dark & was very slight (0.1 mm).
Regardless, a seriously rainy 5 weeks & counting.
Some interesting ECMWF ensemble trends for northern Europe lately.
Firstly, toward higher pressure to the north late next week, with low pressure tracking further south & a greater incursion of cold air across north-western Europe. A notable snow risk for the UK & Ireland.
Firstly, toward higher pressure to the north late next week, with low pressure tracking further south & a greater incursion of cold air across north-western Europe. A notable snow risk for the UK & Ireland.
February 6, 2026 at 12:23 PM
Some interesting ECMWF ensemble trends for northern Europe lately.
Firstly, toward higher pressure to the north late next week, with low pressure tracking further south & a greater incursion of cold air across north-western Europe. A notable snow risk for the UK & Ireland.
Firstly, toward higher pressure to the north late next week, with low pressure tracking further south & a greater incursion of cold air across north-western Europe. A notable snow risk for the UK & Ireland.
Another 30-60 mm quite widely in the UK & Ireland these next 8 days.
Feb is typically markedly drier than Jan. E.g. here in NE Dorset Jan's 1991-2020 average is 85.2 mm (~2.7 mm per day), Feb's just 63.9 mm (~2.3 mm per day).
So this one's already looking very wet vs. normal.
Feb is typically markedly drier than Jan. E.g. here in NE Dorset Jan's 1991-2020 average is 85.2 mm (~2.7 mm per day), Feb's just 63.9 mm (~2.3 mm per day).
So this one's already looking very wet vs. normal.
February 5, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Another 30-60 mm quite widely in the UK & Ireland these next 8 days.
Feb is typically markedly drier than Jan. E.g. here in NE Dorset Jan's 1991-2020 average is 85.2 mm (~2.7 mm per day), Feb's just 63.9 mm (~2.3 mm per day).
So this one's already looking very wet vs. normal.
Feb is typically markedly drier than Jan. E.g. here in NE Dorset Jan's 1991-2020 average is 85.2 mm (~2.7 mm per day), Feb's just 63.9 mm (~2.3 mm per day).
So this one's already looking very wet vs. normal.
Working indoors while it's sunny outside, knowing it's forecast to be cloudy & often raining from tomorrow right through the weekend.
Times like this, I treasure simply being able to get out for a short walk at lunchtime.
Times like this, I treasure simply being able to get out for a short walk at lunchtime.
February 4, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Working indoors while it's sunny outside, knowing it's forecast to be cloudy & often raining from tomorrow right through the weekend.
Times like this, I treasure simply being able to get out for a short walk at lunchtime.
Times like this, I treasure simply being able to get out for a short walk at lunchtime.
After a welcome respite today, wet weather resumes in earnest tomorrow through Friday, with areas most anomalously wet in Jan again seeing some of the largest totals.
It's extraordinary how long this pattern of south-shifted lows visiting the UK & Ireland is persisting for.
It's extraordinary how long this pattern of south-shifted lows visiting the UK & Ireland is persisting for.
February 4, 2026 at 11:12 AM
After a welcome respite today, wet weather resumes in earnest tomorrow through Friday, with areas most anomalously wet in Jan again seeing some of the largest totals.
It's extraordinary how long this pattern of south-shifted lows visiting the UK & Ireland is persisting for.
It's extraordinary how long this pattern of south-shifted lows visiting the UK & Ireland is persisting for.
Local to me, when comparing the wettest three starts to the year on record, 2026 has seen considerably less sunshine.
Temperatures have been similar to 2014 but chillier than 2016.
Overall, I'd say 2026's is the most unpleasant start to a year's weather that I've experienced.
Temperatures have been similar to 2014 but chillier than 2016.
Overall, I'd say 2026's is the most unpleasant start to a year's weather that I've experienced.
February 4, 2026 at 10:21 AM
Local to me, when comparing the wettest three starts to the year on record, 2026 has seen considerably less sunshine.
Temperatures have been similar to 2014 but chillier than 2016.
Overall, I'd say 2026's is the most unpleasant start to a year's weather that I've experienced.
Temperatures have been similar to 2014 but chillier than 2016.
Overall, I'd say 2026's is the most unpleasant start to a year's weather that I've experienced.
Checking the year to date in my local area versus historical temperature records since 1943 really hammers home how extraordinary 1963 was.
While there are sadly no consistent records for 1946-47 (war-related reasons), the coldest weather that winter didn't start until 21st Jan.
While there are sadly no consistent records for 1946-47 (war-related reasons), the coldest weather that winter didn't start until 21st Jan.
February 4, 2026 at 10:17 AM
Checking the year to date in my local area versus historical temperature records since 1943 really hammers home how extraordinary 1963 was.
While there are sadly no consistent records for 1946-47 (war-related reasons), the coldest weather that winter didn't start until 21st Jan.
While there are sadly no consistent records for 1946-47 (war-related reasons), the coldest weather that winter didn't start until 21st Jan.
For several days now, the GFS & IFS forecast models have been at odds regarding how a warming event affects the polar vortex in the upper stratosphere in mid-February.
GFS is keen to split the vortex in two, IFS prefers to stretch & displace it instead. A fascinating stand-off!
GFS is keen to split the vortex in two, IFS prefers to stretch & displace it instead. A fascinating stand-off!
February 4, 2026 at 9:44 AM
For several days now, the GFS & IFS forecast models have been at odds regarding how a warming event affects the polar vortex in the upper stratosphere in mid-February.
GFS is keen to split the vortex in two, IFS prefers to stretch & displace it instead. A fascinating stand-off!
GFS is keen to split the vortex in two, IFS prefers to stretch & displace it instead. A fascinating stand-off!
Reposted by James Peacock
Storm Leonardo will bring heavy rain across Iberia on Wednesday into Thursday.
Southern and western areas will widely see 50-100mm, with 200-300mm falling over some hills and mountains.
Flooding, landslides and travel disruption are expected, with amber and red warnings issued.
Southern and western areas will widely see 50-100mm, with 200-300mm falling over some hills and mountains.
Flooding, landslides and travel disruption are expected, with amber and red warnings issued.
February 3, 2026 at 4:11 PM
Storm Leonardo will bring heavy rain across Iberia on Wednesday into Thursday.
Southern and western areas will widely see 50-100mm, with 200-300mm falling over some hills and mountains.
Flooding, landslides and travel disruption are expected, with amber and red warnings issued.
Southern and western areas will widely see 50-100mm, with 200-300mm falling over some hills and mountains.
Flooding, landslides and travel disruption are expected, with amber and red warnings issued.
Dramatic changes in zonal (from west to east) wind over the high Arctic between 6 & 10 days from now in yesterday's 12z IFS forecast.
Uncertain whether this reversal will extend to 60N (latitude) & produce a technical major sudden stratospheric warming event.
Uncertain whether this reversal will extend to 60N (latitude) & produce a technical major sudden stratospheric warming event.
February 3, 2026 at 10:08 AM
Dramatic changes in zonal (from west to east) wind over the high Arctic between 6 & 10 days from now in yesterday's 12z IFS forecast.
Uncertain whether this reversal will extend to 60N (latitude) & produce a technical major sudden stratospheric warming event.
Uncertain whether this reversal will extend to 60N (latitude) & produce a technical major sudden stratospheric warming event.
No prizes for guessing where this sprawl of wet weather is headed for tonight through tomorrow🙄
February 2, 2026 at 5:33 PM
No prizes for guessing where this sprawl of wet weather is headed for tonight through tomorrow🙄
A: Anomalously weak polar vortex in troposphere & lower stratosphere, supporting blocked weather patterns
B: Sudden stratospheric warming event hitting upper stratosphere
C: Possible troposphere-led breakdown of blocking pattern in troposphere in mid-February
To elaborate...
B: Sudden stratospheric warming event hitting upper stratosphere
C: Possible troposphere-led breakdown of blocking pattern in troposphere in mid-February
To elaborate...
February 2, 2026 at 4:30 PM
A: Anomalously weak polar vortex in troposphere & lower stratosphere, supporting blocked weather patterns
B: Sudden stratospheric warming event hitting upper stratosphere
C: Possible troposphere-led breakdown of blocking pattern in troposphere in mid-February
To elaborate...
B: Sudden stratospheric warming event hitting upper stratosphere
C: Possible troposphere-led breakdown of blocking pattern in troposphere in mid-February
To elaborate...
A by-decade, per-region analysis of Hadley UK daily precipitation data since 1936 reveals that in England & Wales, 2016-2025 widely has the highest number of exceedances for thresholds of 5, 10, 15, & 20 mm regional mean total.
Interestingly this is not true for Scotland.
Interestingly this is not true for Scotland.
February 2, 2026 at 4:19 PM
A by-decade, per-region analysis of Hadley UK daily precipitation data since 1936 reveals that in England & Wales, 2016-2025 widely has the highest number of exceedances for thresholds of 5, 10, 15, & 20 mm regional mean total.
Interestingly this is not true for Scotland.
Interestingly this is not true for Scotland.
Still keeping a wary eye on the potential for a major SSW event in mid-February that could delay or set back the spring warmup in northern Europe.
The latest ECMWF ensemble mean doesn't get as close to a major SSW, but a larger number of runs have a long duration event.
The latest ECMWF ensemble mean doesn't get as close to a major SSW, but a larger number of runs have a long duration event.
February 2, 2026 at 10:16 AM
Still keeping a wary eye on the potential for a major SSW event in mid-February that could delay or set back the spring warmup in northern Europe.
The latest ECMWF ensemble mean doesn't get as close to a major SSW, but a larger number of runs have a long duration event.
The latest ECMWF ensemble mean doesn't get as close to a major SSW, but a larger number of runs have a long duration event.
Run after run, the theme of a very wet southern Europe continues. It appears this will be the state of play until mid-February. Concerning amounts for some areas.
Still rather unsettled in southern UK too, but (hopefully!) with lower rainfall totals than in the past few weeks.
Still rather unsettled in southern UK too, but (hopefully!) with lower rainfall totals than in the past few weeks.
February 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM
Run after run, the theme of a very wet southern Europe continues. It appears this will be the state of play until mid-February. Concerning amounts for some areas.
Still rather unsettled in southern UK too, but (hopefully!) with lower rainfall totals than in the past few weeks.
Still rather unsettled in southern UK too, but (hopefully!) with lower rainfall totals than in the past few weeks.
For the sake of those beneath I'm hoping the radar is acting up in the Portsmouth area at the moment.
Such widespread 60+ mm per hour rates would be extremely unusual for this time of year.
Such widespread 60+ mm per hour rates would be extremely unusual for this time of year.
February 1, 2026 at 6:14 PM
For the sake of those beneath I'm hoping the radar is acting up in the Portsmouth area at the moment.
Such widespread 60+ mm per hour rates would be extremely unusual for this time of year.
Such widespread 60+ mm per hour rates would be extremely unusual for this time of year.
No surprise that the lakes at Moors Valley are overspilling at the end of the 2nd wettest January on record for the local area.
January 31, 2026 at 2:37 PM
No surprise that the lakes at Moors Valley are overspilling at the end of the 2nd wettest January on record for the local area.
As a meteorologist & weather enthusiast, January 2026 has been a tale of massive capitulation from a local (southern UK) perspective.
It started very well, with plenty of dry, sunny weather & some interesting iciness. Then the weather turned, with a soggy 9th (16.4 mm here)...
It started very well, with plenty of dry, sunny weather & some interesting iciness. Then the weather turned, with a soggy 9th (16.4 mm here)...
January 30, 2026 at 10:43 AM
As a meteorologist & weather enthusiast, January 2026 has been a tale of massive capitulation from a local (southern UK) perspective.
It started very well, with plenty of dry, sunny weather & some interesting iciness. Then the weather turned, with a soggy 9th (16.4 mm here)...
It started very well, with plenty of dry, sunny weather & some interesting iciness. Then the weather turned, with a soggy 9th (16.4 mm here)...
Overall, the next 7 days don't look as wet across the UK & Ireland as the last 7.
However, it's uncertain how the wet weather will be distributed, & there's a chance it focuses across southwest UK & eastern Ireland to give those areas yet another very wet week.
However, it's uncertain how the wet weather will be distributed, & there's a chance it focuses across southwest UK & eastern Ireland to give those areas yet another very wet week.
January 30, 2026 at 10:33 AM
Overall, the next 7 days don't look as wet across the UK & Ireland as the last 7.
However, it's uncertain how the wet weather will be distributed, & there's a chance it focuses across southwest UK & eastern Ireland to give those areas yet another very wet week.
However, it's uncertain how the wet weather will be distributed, & there's a chance it focuses across southwest UK & eastern Ireland to give those areas yet another very wet week.
Yet another compact low approaches southern UK today. This one not nearly as deep as the previous two, but set to bring further wet weather to the already heavily drenched southwest this afternoon into evening, before heading northward tonight through tomorrow.
January 30, 2026 at 10:16 AM
Yet another compact low approaches southern UK today. This one not nearly as deep as the previous two, but set to bring further wet weather to the already heavily drenched southwest this afternoon into evening, before heading northward tonight through tomorrow.