Per
@peranoia.bsky.social
I study kleptocracies, and write longer articles at https://substack.com/@notesbyrandom and https://notesbyrandom.blogspot.com/ - I am also at https://mastodon.social/@perimath
All governments exist between two extremes - the personalist despotism or the institutional rule of law. A personalist regime can last a long time, but it is not stable. It lacks the self-repair mechanisms that only independent institutions with balancing power can provide.
January 3, 2026 at 1:05 PM
All governments exist between two extremes - the personalist despotism or the institutional rule of law. A personalist regime can last a long time, but it is not stable. It lacks the self-repair mechanisms that only independent institutions with balancing power can provide.
What comes to mind right now is that the best book I've read on Venezuela is called "Things are never so bad that they cannot get worse". A leader of a personalist regime always seeks to have no clear successor outside his immediate family. That means once he is removed, the danger is civil war.
January 3, 2026 at 12:50 PM
What comes to mind right now is that the best book I've read on Venezuela is called "Things are never so bad that they cannot get worse". A leader of a personalist regime always seeks to have no clear successor outside his immediate family. That means once he is removed, the danger is civil war.
Great article by Anne Applebaum on the USA's pivot towards Russia and against the EU. Quote: "This is what this radical faction really fears: people who talk about transparency, accountability, civil rights, and the rule of law."
The Longest Suicide Note in American History
The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy targets liberal democracy itself.
www.theatlantic.com
December 19, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Great article by Anne Applebaum on the USA's pivot towards Russia and against the EU. Quote: "This is what this radical faction really fears: people who talk about transparency, accountability, civil rights, and the rule of law."
I predict “Standing up to Donald Trump didn’t work" is going to go into the history books along with "Peace in our time", except Chamberlain was trying to buy British rearmament time, while Angus King and his cowards-in-arms is buying Trump time to complete his $170 billion personal militia.
November 10, 2025 at 8:44 PM
I predict “Standing up to Donald Trump didn’t work" is going to go into the history books along with "Peace in our time", except Chamberlain was trying to buy British rearmament time, while Angus King and his cowards-in-arms is buying Trump time to complete his $170 billion personal militia.
The current discussion in the US about a third term for Trump just shows how important strict, unambiguous term limits for the highest offices of a country is. Kleptocrat movements are extremely personalist and weak when they must change leader. A one term limit would be much better than two.
November 2, 2025 at 1:34 PM
The current discussion in the US about a third term for Trump just shows how important strict, unambiguous term limits for the highest offices of a country is. Kleptocrat movements are extremely personalist and weak when they must change leader. A one term limit would be much better than two.
For a while now I've been trying to understand modern kleptocracies as something other and different than classical fascism. The old fascist regimes seemed so different than the modern grifter networks, but there were also clear similarities. So I took some weeks off to dive into it. A thread.
October 31, 2025 at 8:44 PM
For a while now I've been trying to understand modern kleptocracies as something other and different than classical fascism. The old fascist regimes seemed so different than the modern grifter networks, but there were also clear similarities. So I took some weeks off to dive into it. A thread.
Obviously, when Trump and his henchmen lose power, the new White House ballroom should become a museum of corruption. Just like they turned Yanukovych's obscene luxury mansion in Ukraine into one. What is happening now must be remembered.
October 21, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Obviously, when Trump and his henchmen lose power, the new White House ballroom should become a museum of corruption. Just like they turned Yanukovych's obscene luxury mansion in Ukraine into one. What is happening now must be remembered.
I wrote a longer blog post on how we should turn our migration policy on its head by pursuing win-win outcomes for ordinary people rather than chasing the far-right's talking points: open.substack.com/pub/notesbyr...
Turning immigration policy on its head
How we got it all wrong
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 11:50 AM
I wrote a longer blog post on how we should turn our migration policy on its head by pursuing win-win outcomes for ordinary people rather than chasing the far-right's talking points: open.substack.com/pub/notesbyr...
A good article on how academics can be a key part of a restoration of democracy after an authoritarian takeover: donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-social.... A key message here is that it cannot simply be seen as a rollback to the old ways, it must be a dramatic improvement over it.
How social scientists could help to rebuild the federal government
Lessons from my time in the Biden administration
donmoynihan.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 6:39 PM
A good article on how academics can be a key part of a restoration of democracy after an authoritarian takeover: donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-social.... A key message here is that it cannot simply be seen as a rollback to the old ways, it must be a dramatic improvement over it.
Academics today are paid by the state to teach and to publish papers. I think this is outdated. They should be paid to review papers, organize information, teach, and publish, in that order of priority. For-profit journals need to die - they fragment and disorganize information. We need open access.
August 17, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Academics today are paid by the state to teach and to publish papers. I think this is outdated. They should be paid to review papers, organize information, teach, and publish, in that order of priority. For-profit journals need to die - they fragment and disorganize information. We need open access.
The current efforts to gerrymander even more in the US is another reminder that voting by districts is a fundamentally broken design. Politicians should not be able to pick their voters, and redistricting commissions are a weak half-way measure. Need proportional representation from all voters.
August 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The current efforts to gerrymander even more in the US is another reminder that voting by districts is a fundamentally broken design. Politicians should not be able to pick their voters, and redistricting commissions are a weak half-way measure. Need proportional representation from all voters.
There is one cheap trick to prevent an kleptocrats from taking over an established democracy: The one-term limit. They are all extremely personalized movements depending on the authority of their leader. Every time they have taken over an existing democracy, they have needed more than one term.
July 26, 2025 at 5:31 PM
There is one cheap trick to prevent an kleptocrats from taking over an established democracy: The one-term limit. They are all extremely personalized movements depending on the authority of their leader. Every time they have taken over an existing democracy, they have needed more than one term.
The Epstein backlash shows quite clearly how supporters of kleptocratic movements can be divided into grifters and suckers. The grifters understand that their leaders are lying - and accept this seeing it as a ladder for their own ambitions. The suckers actually believe the lies.
July 26, 2025 at 5:24 PM
The Epstein backlash shows quite clearly how supporters of kleptocratic movements can be divided into grifters and suckers. The grifters understand that their leaders are lying - and accept this seeing it as a ladder for their own ambitions. The suckers actually believe the lies.
Reposted by Per
Rep. Andy Ogles of TN, who just quietly caved on Trump's bill, is a reminder that dark dirty secrets in politics is a feature, not a bug. A candidate with a hidden crime or sexual shame is a plus - he'll be a compliant tool. 1/
REMINDER: President Trump controls fate of an FBI/DOJ investigation of Congressman Andy Ogles. He has suddenly gone silent on the BBB that “forces Tennesseans to pay for illegal aliens’ healthcare” and to “subsidize state and local taxes for wealthy people in blue states.” 1/x
July 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Rep. Andy Ogles of TN, who just quietly caved on Trump's bill, is a reminder that dark dirty secrets in politics is a feature, not a bug. A candidate with a hidden crime or sexual shame is a plus - he'll be a compliant tool. 1/
Reposted by Per
This Israel - Iran war is really pitting the worst people you know against each other, we've got Israeli influence networks warring with Russian influence networks.
June 18, 2025 at 7:11 AM
This Israel - Iran war is really pitting the worst people you know against each other, we've got Israeli influence networks warring with Russian influence networks.
Good times create dreams of hard times. Hard times create dreams of good times. This is the cycle of fiction. Dark fiction in times of optimism is escapism and a flight of fancy. We love the contrast, the difference. But when reality turns dark, it quickly becomes apologism.
June 11, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Good times create dreams of hard times. Hard times create dreams of good times. This is the cycle of fiction. Dark fiction in times of optimism is escapism and a flight of fancy. We love the contrast, the difference. But when reality turns dark, it quickly becomes apologism.
As I wrote before, the Musk and Trump relationship was always doomed. A kleptocracy only has one boss. The right move now is to supported the underdog, not because you want him to win, but to prolong the fight for as long as possible. Once the fight is over, the regime consolidates and solidifies.
This is why there will be an all-out power-struggle between Musk and Trump, whether they personally want to or not. There is no space for power sharing in a kleptocracy. Every kleptocracy we have seen has ended up with a single leader destroying every possible challenger within the pyramid.
June 5, 2025 at 11:25 PM
As I wrote before, the Musk and Trump relationship was always doomed. A kleptocracy only has one boss. The right move now is to supported the underdog, not because you want him to win, but to prolong the fight for as long as possible. Once the fight is over, the regime consolidates and solidifies.
The big social media companies abandoned friend feeds in order to get people hooked on content from engagement algorithms. As a consequence, people got less engaged with their friends and consumed more disinformation. This is directly correlated with the rise of the alt right kleptocracy movement.
May 25, 2025 at 9:59 PM
The big social media companies abandoned friend feeds in order to get people hooked on content from engagement algorithms. As a consequence, people got less engaged with their friends and consumed more disinformation. This is directly correlated with the rise of the alt right kleptocracy movement.
The US sanctions on the International Criminal Court is interesting on many levels. Firstly, it shows how dependent the rest of the world is on the US service economy, and now that they have found this weakness they will keep abusing it. They will not care that this will quickly ruin it.
May 20, 2025 at 11:14 PM
The US sanctions on the International Criminal Court is interesting on many levels. Firstly, it shows how dependent the rest of the world is on the US service economy, and now that they have found this weakness they will keep abusing it. They will not care that this will quickly ruin it.
The last episode of Andor throws every established truth about pacing and story arc resolution out the window and somehow manages to make it awesome. Well done, really well done.
May 14, 2025 at 7:31 PM
The last episode of Andor throws every established truth about pacing and story arc resolution out the window and somehow manages to make it awesome. Well done, really well done.
The UK white paper on immigration is not all bad. The political introduction is an atrocity, adopting the language of the far right, and the rest is written in byzantine bureaucratese new-public-management language. But the actual politics are not that bad - it just won't fix the problem.
May 13, 2025 at 11:17 PM
The UK white paper on immigration is not all bad. The political introduction is an atrocity, adopting the language of the far right, and the rest is written in byzantine bureaucratese new-public-management language. But the actual politics are not that bad - it just won't fix the problem.
Keir Starmer is right to talk about public trust on immigration, but by using the language of the far right on migration and completely accepting their framing of the problem, why would voters trust him over the people who pushed this view forward in the first place to much ridicule?
May 12, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Keir Starmer is right to talk about public trust on immigration, but by using the language of the far right on migration and completely accepting their framing of the problem, why would voters trust him over the people who pushed this view forward in the first place to much ridicule?
So Trump is announcing that he will dictate the prices on pharmaceuticals by executive order, and this just after announcing last week massive tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals. So the speed re-run of the Venezuelan economic collapse is still ongoing. Nothing learned.
May 12, 2025 at 10:22 AM
So Trump is announcing that he will dictate the prices on pharmaceuticals by executive order, and this just after announcing last week massive tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals. So the speed re-run of the Venezuelan economic collapse is still ongoing. Nothing learned.
Harvard is discovering that the Trump administration is like a black hole - the more you feed it, the hungrier it gets. This is not just because Trump is a narcissist. That would be mistaking cause and effect. The appetite of a kleptocratic movement will always be insatiable.
May 1, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Harvard is discovering that the Trump administration is like a black hole - the more you feed it, the hungrier it gets. This is not just because Trump is a narcissist. That would be mistaking cause and effect. The appetite of a kleptocratic movement will always be insatiable.
Reddit has started automatic censorship of posts using AI. One of my own posts got removed by its AI for supposedly "threatening violence", which is a first for me. I can't even go back to check what I wrote to offend the AI gods because all trace of the post is gone, even from the warning letter.
April 29, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Reddit has started automatic censorship of posts using AI. One of my own posts got removed by its AI for supposedly "threatening violence", which is a first for me. I can't even go back to check what I wrote to offend the AI gods because all trace of the post is gone, even from the warning letter.