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Peter Wildeford

@peterwildeford.bsky.social

2.6K followers 200 following 400 posts

Globally ranked top 20 forecaster 🎯 AI is not a normal technology. I'm working at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS) to shape AI for global prosperity and human freedom.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 4d

5 fellowships and 10 additional roles that you can apply to in order to kick-start your AI policy career. Check them out!

=> t.ly/ai-jobs

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 3d

My last link shortener died, so here's the updated version! Check out and get involved in AI policy!

bit.ly/ai-job-list

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 3d

There's a narrative that GPT5 has proven the end of scaling. This is false.

Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare.

I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 4d

5 fellowships and 10 additional roles that you can apply to in order to kick-start your AI policy career. Check them out!

=> t.ly/ai-jobs

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 11d

3. Claude continues to smash others at SWE-Bench too, as usual.

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 11d

2. Everyone talking about 4.5 being great at coding, but I'm taking way more notice of that huge increase in computer use (OSWorld) score That's a huge increase over SOTA and I don't think we've seen anything similarly good at OSWorld from others? Claude Agents coming soon?

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 11d

Three quick notes on Claude Sonnet 4.5:

1. Having a separate Opus 4.1 (but no Sonnet 4.1) and Sonnet 4.5 (but no Opus 4.5) is really something

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 15d

What does the recent $100B NVIDIA deal mean for AI?

OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle created a $400B+ circular financing scheme that makes 25% of the S&P 500 a bet on AGI.

The math only works if they're right about AI scaling. And it might actually work.

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/openai-nvi...

OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Oracle: Breaking Down $100B Bets on AGI

How vendor financing turns the S&P 500 into a giant AGI bet

peterwildeford.substack.com

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 21d

Don’t let nuance lead you to miss the bigger picture -- even if Yudkowsky and Soares are overconfident, there still are serious dangers from scaling AI to superintelligence.

The real overconfidence that matters most is the overconfidence of the AI companies.

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · 22d

"If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies". It's a shocking headline. How well does it hold up? Today I review.

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/if-we-buil...

If We Build AI Superintelligence, Do We All Die?

If you're not at least a little doomy about AI, you're not paying attention

peterwildeford.substack.com

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Sep 10

I did an interview with The Oracle where I talk about why all your hot takes are probably wrong! Check it out! news.polymarket.com/p/nothing-ev...

🔮 #3 Top Forecaster: "Nothing Ever Happens"

Inside Peter Wildeford’s award-winning forecasting strategy

news.polymarket.com

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Sep 9

AI is not a normal technology.

Normal tech doesn't deceive their operators.
Normal tech doesn't autonomously blackmail people.
Normal tech doesn't refuse to go back into the toolbox.
Normal tech doesn't develop goals you never gave them.

There's little normal about AI.

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Sep 6

Trump is right

Acyn @acyn.bsky.social · Sep 5

Trump: You have some vaccines that are so amazing. The polio vaccine I think is amazing. A lot of people think that covid is amazing. You know. I think you have to be very careful when you say that some people don't have to be vaccinated.

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Sep 6

AI agents can be hijacked to spread like computer viruses. Prompt injection can form AI-driven malware.

In this demonstration, AgentHopper exploits flaws in GitHub Copilot and infects repositories, jumps between coding agents, and spreads automatically through GitHub commits.

AgentHopper: An AI Virus · Embrace The Red

AgentHopper: A proof-of-concept AI Virus

embracethered.com

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Sep 5

AI chips are potentially the most complex objects humans have ever made.

They take hundreds of steps to fabricate and only can be constructed by the shared knowledge across a handful of companies on Earth.

Today, Erich explains on the blog how chips are made.

Explainer: How AI Chips Are Made

It's complicated

peterwildeford.substack.com

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Sep 1

Compute is the new oil. It's cliché but true, especially geopolitically.

Like oil, compute is:
- Scarce (demand far exceeds supply)
- Concentrated (US: 75%, China: 15%, EU: 5%)
- Controllable (export controls actually work)
- Strategically vital (biggest AI bottleneck)

Compute is a strategic resource

Computing power still determines who wins the AI race

peterwildeford.substack.com

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Aug 28

"Agentic AI has been weaponized. AI models are now being used to perform sophisticated cyberattacks, not just advise on how to carry them out."

From Anthropic’s latest AI Threat Intelligence Report

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Aug 8

GPT-5 is here.

It’s not a giant leap in intelligence. But for 98% of users, it’s still the best ChatGPT yet.

What does this tell us about the future of AI? In today's blog, I dig in.

peterwildeford.substack.com/p/gpt-5-a-sm...

GPT-5: a small step for intelligence, a giant leap for normal people

GPT-5 focuses on where the money is - everyday users, not AI elites

peterwildeford.substack.com

Reposted by Peter Wildeford

Grace @gracekind.net · Aug 7

they should be taken to The Vague for this post crime

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Aug 6

People are losing their minds over Chinese AI again. This time it's Z.ai's GLM-4.5.

A @wsj.com op-ed claims GLM-4.5 proves US export controls have "backfired spectacularly." Trump's AI adviser retweeted it.

They're wrong. Here's what's actually happening:

Z.ai and Huawei aren't defeating US export controls

Loosening restrictions now would surrender America's technological advantage

peterwildeford.substack.com

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Aug 4

Does Trump's AI Action Plan have what it takes to win?

There are sharp policies for US AI but also contradictions around China strategy, AGI preparedness, permitting reform, and execution speed.

Here are my ten takes on what it gets right, what it misses, and what it means for America's AI future.

Does Trump’s AI Action Plan have what it takes to win?

Ten takes on the AI Action Plan

peterwildeford.substack.com

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Jul 26

I'd bet pretty heavily at 5% personally

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Jul 24

Here's what IAPS researchers are thinking about the AI Action Plan:

IAPS Researchers React: The US AI Action Plan — Institute for AI Policy and Strategy

Experts at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy reviewed the AI Action Plan with an eye toward its national security implications. As AI continues to accelerate towards very powerful artificial ge...

www.iaps.ai

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Jul 23

AI has "the potential to reshape the global balance of power, spark entirely new industries, and revolutionize the way we live"

This isn't hype. It's official US policy.

And with bipartisan members of Congress giving AI timelines, we're seeing a vibe shift. I unpack it here:

Official White House policy: AI is a big deal

The AI vibe shift continues. Action is next.

peterwildeford.substack.com

Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Jul 21

Now is an even better time to get an AI job than I thought. I updated my post with more jobs. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/now-is-a-g...

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Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford.bsky.social · Jul 18

🚨💼 I'm hiring! And so are many other organizations I like.

If you’re looking for a career in AI policy, now is an excellent time. I've selected a list of my favorite roles and if you like my tweets you're likely the target audience!

Now is a great time to get a career in AI policy

I'm hiring! And dozens more impactful AI policy roles

peterwildeford.substack.com

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