Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
Canadian economist and statistician. https://linktr.ee/philsmith26
1 - UR = 1 - U/LF = (LF-U)/LF = E/LF where U is people looking and no job, LF is people looking and no job plus people with jobs, E is people with job, PR=LF/LFPOP, DS = LFPOP/POP where LFPOP is the working age population, POP is the total population. I will be interested too in Japan's case.
February 2, 2026 at 8:37 PM
1 - UR = 1 - U/LF = (LF-U)/LF = E/LF where U is people looking and no job, LF is people looking and no job plus people with jobs, E is people with job, PR=LF/LFPOP, DS = LFPOP/POP where LFPOP is the working age population, POP is the total population. I will be interested too in Japan's case.
Thanks Karl. That's kind.
February 2, 2026 at 2:01 AM
Thanks Karl. That's kind.
x.com
February 2, 2026 at 1:50 AM
x.com
February 2, 2026 at 1:48 AM
Here's the way objective reporters in the U.S. assess the results of the Conservatives' leadership vote on Friday.
February 1, 2026 at 9:44 PM
Here's the way objective reporters in the U.S. assess the results of the Conservatives' leadership vote on Friday.
Statistics Canada reported today that SEPH employment decreased slightly in November. SEPH has been showing a lot less employment growth for the last three years than LFS, probably due to the effect of the swings in the non-permanent resident population within LFS methodology. #cdnecon
January 29, 2026 at 2:06 PM
Statistics Canada reported today that SEPH employment decreased slightly in November. SEPH has been showing a lot less employment growth for the last three years than LFS, probably due to the effect of the swings in the non-permanent resident population within LFS methodology. #cdnecon
The strength of Canada's economy is highly dependent on world commodity prices. Entering 2026 it continues to benefit from high prices of metals and minerals and relatively good prices for agricultural and fish products, but energy and forestry prices are somewhat in the doldrums. #cdnecon
January 15, 2026 at 4:26 PM
The strength of Canada's economy is highly dependent on world commodity prices. Entering 2026 it continues to benefit from high prices of metals and minerals and relatively good prices for agricultural and fish products, but energy and forestry prices are somewhat in the doldrums. #cdnecon
2025 was a year of continued surging in the labour force population and rapid growth in employment, according to Canada's LFS. Nevertheless unemployment rose as the labour force also expanded a lot. SEPH, though not yet complete for the full year, showed a weaker employment picture. #cdnecon
January 15, 2026 at 3:23 AM
2025 was a year of continued surging in the labour force population and rapid growth in employment, according to Canada's LFS. Nevertheless unemployment rose as the labour force also expanded a lot. SEPH, though not yet complete for the full year, showed a weaker employment picture. #cdnecon
I released a paper on substack this morning casting the fiscal numbers from Canada's November 4 budget in a long-term historical context. #cdnecon
philip635.substack.com/p/government...
philip635.substack.com/p/government...
Government of Canada fiscal numbers since Confederation
Viewing current budget plans in a long-term context
philip635.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 4:05 PM
I released a paper on substack this morning casting the fiscal numbers from Canada's November 4 budget in a long-term historical context. #cdnecon
philip635.substack.com/p/government...
philip635.substack.com/p/government...
2/2 The capital consumption allowance shares are similar in the two countries. The share of indirect taxes, such as the Harmonized Sales Tax, remains a lot higher in Canada although the Trump tariffs have boosted the US share quite noticeably so far in 2025.
January 10, 2026 at 3:29 PM
2/2 The capital consumption allowance shares are similar in the two countries. The share of indirect taxes, such as the Harmonized Sales Tax, remains a lot higher in Canada although the Trump tariffs have boosted the US share quite noticeably so far in 2025.
1/2 The labour income share of gross domestic income remained higher in the US than in Canada in 2025 Q3, although the US share has been trending down for decades and the gap is narrowing. The US business income share is near its all-time high, well above Canada's.
January 10, 2026 at 3:29 PM
1/2 The labour income share of gross domestic income remained higher in the US than in Canada in 2025 Q3, although the US share has been trending down for decades and the gap is narrowing. The US business income share is near its all-time high, well above Canada's.
With yesterday's murder by ICE in Minnesota, the ICE masks and chemical weapons, their refusal to allow pictures of their activities and the ICE leader telling lies about the murder and refusing to allow an honest inquiry, ICE must now be regarded as the US Gestapo. The full nazification of America.
January 8, 2026 at 5:41 PM
With yesterday's murder by ICE in Minnesota, the ICE masks and chemical weapons, their refusal to allow pictures of their activities and the ICE leader telling lies about the murder and refusing to allow an honest inquiry, ICE must now be regarded as the US Gestapo. The full nazification of America.
The relative price of food in Canada has been trending up since early 2009. It took a large leap in the second half of 2022, stabilized and then rose further in 2025. But it has dropped before and could do so again in 2026 if the Canadian dollar strengthens and the weather is favourable. #cdnecon
January 3, 2026 at 12:58 AM
The relative price of food in Canada has been trending up since early 2009. It took a large leap in the second half of 2022, stabilized and then rose further in 2025. But it has dropped before and could do so again in 2026 if the Canadian dollar strengthens and the weather is favourable. #cdnecon
Part of the annual Globe and Mail chart package was released online today. I submitted a chart on the "affordability" issue and you can see it at the following link if you are interested.
www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/10a5920...
www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/10a5920...
What’s ahead for the job market and household spending in 2026? Eight charts give us a glimpse
We asked economists and analysts to pick the data you’ll need to know about labour and your finances in the year ahead
www.theglobeandmail.com
January 1, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Part of the annual Globe and Mail chart package was released online today. I submitted a chart on the "affordability" issue and you can see it at the following link if you are interested.
www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/10a5920...
www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/10a5920...
Isn't Trump the son of an immigrant?
December 24, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Isn't Trump the son of an immigrant?
If you are interested in this kind of thing, I invite you to read my latest substack release on seasonality in Canada's CPI. philip635.substack.com/p/the-import...
The importance of seasonality in Canada's consumer price index
It matters more than you might think
philip635.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 3:39 PM
If you are interested in this kind of thing, I invite you to read my latest substack release on seasonality in Canada's CPI. philip635.substack.com/p/the-import...
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the US reached another low point in December as households held expectations of higher inflation and rising unemployment in 2026. The index was 33% below its December 2024 level. #usecon
December 21, 2025 at 1:53 PM
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the US reached another low point in December as households held expectations of higher inflation and rising unemployment in 2026. The index was 33% below its December 2024 level. #usecon
This is wise. From The Functionary, by Kathryn May at 44615331.hs-sites.com/downsizing
December 20, 2025 at 2:48 AM
This is wise. From The Functionary, by Kathryn May at 44615331.hs-sites.com/downsizing
For those interested, my national accounts browser is now up-to-date with the revisions and latest quarterly data. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/Flexible-tab...
December 19, 2025 at 10:21 PM
For those interested, my national accounts browser is now up-to-date with the revisions and latest quarterly data. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/Flexible-tab...
Canadian new housing prices have been on a slow declining trend since the summer of 2022, based on Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index. They were unchanged from the previous month in November. #cdnecon
December 19, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Canadian new housing prices have been on a slow declining trend since the summer of 2022, based on Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index. They were unchanged from the previous month in November. #cdnecon
Employment has not changed much this year, according to the payroll survey. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/
December 18, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Employment has not changed much this year, according to the payroll survey. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/
With the 3rd quarter population decrease factored in plus the national accounts upward revisions to GDP announced 2-3 weeks ago, the picture looks a bit brighter for the real-GDP-per-capita ratio many have been concerned about. The ratio has been trending up again since the end of 2023. #cdnecon
December 17, 2025 at 2:58 PM
With the 3rd quarter population decrease factored in plus the national accounts upward revisions to GDP announced 2-3 weeks ago, the picture looks a bit brighter for the real-GDP-per-capita ratio many have been concerned about. The ratio has been trending up again since the end of 2023. #cdnecon