Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
Canadian economist and statistician. https://linktr.ee/philsmith26
Pinned
Phil Smith
@philsmith26.bsky.social
· Sep 10
Real GDP per capita vs real HDI per capita since 2019
Why have they evolved so differently? What are the implications?
substack.com
I invite you to read my latest Substack paper about three alternative summary indicators of economic welfare. #cdnecon substack.com/home/post/p-...
Total railway carloadings in the west fell 6.2% between May and September this year and further declines seem likely given the US tariffs. The wood products category has continued to plunge due to several factors including steep US tariffs. Manufactured products have been flat since mid 2023.
November 26, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Total railway carloadings in the west fell 6.2% between May and September this year and further declines seem likely given the US tariffs. The wood products category has continued to plunge due to several factors including steep US tariffs. Manufactured products have been flat since mid 2023.
Here's an interesting categorization and analysis of supply shocks, from Brookings. It focuses on 115 instances relating to global supply chains, productivity issues, pandemics, commodity prices, natural disasters, labour supply, critical inputs & import prices.
www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
www.brookings.edu
November 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Here's an interesting categorization and analysis of supply shocks, from Brookings. It focuses on 115 instances relating to global supply chains, productivity issues, pandemics, commodity prices, natural disasters, labour supply, critical inputs & import prices.
www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
Corporate profits before taxes in Canada hit a new peak in the 3rd quarter, rising 7.6% from the 2nd quarter, StatCan reported yesterday. The previous pre-tax peak was in 2022 Q2. Telecomm profits jumped an extraordinary $10.4 billion but these were mostly one-time non-operational gains. #cdnecon
November 25, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Corporate profits before taxes in Canada hit a new peak in the 3rd quarter, rising 7.6% from the 2nd quarter, StatCan reported yesterday. The previous pre-tax peak was in 2022 Q2. Telecomm profits jumped an extraordinary $10.4 billion but these were mostly one-time non-operational gains. #cdnecon
I knew NFL teams were expensive to buy, but had no idea the 32 teams together added a hefty US$227 billion to the US balance sheet.
November 24, 2025 at 3:36 PM
I knew NFL teams were expensive to buy, but had no idea the 32 teams together added a hefty US$227 billion to the US balance sheet.
I invite you to read my new (and free) Substack paper on the difficulties involved in measuring government productivity. philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...
Measuring aggregate government productivity
A near impossible task because while we know what government output costs, we do not know what it is worth
philip635.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I invite you to read my new (and free) Substack paper on the difficulties involved in measuring government productivity. philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...
There are several Canadian housing price indicators available. Here is StatCan's, which is based on a survey of construction companies. It shows big and continuing declines since March 2022 in the CPI-adjusted prices of both land and the houses themselves. But there are wide geographical variations.
November 21, 2025 at 4:22 PM
There are several Canadian housing price indicators available. Here is StatCan's, which is based on a survey of construction companies. It shows big and continuing declines since March 2022 in the CPI-adjusted prices of both land and the houses themselves. But there are wide geographical variations.
As Canada works to restructure its international trade toward countries other than the US, its effort is aided by the falling broadly-defined average effective currency exchange rate vis-à-vis those countries (blue line). However rates remain well above where they were at the turn of the century.
November 21, 2025 at 2:37 PM
As Canada works to restructure its international trade toward countries other than the US, its effort is aided by the falling broadly-defined average effective currency exchange rate vis-à-vis those countries (blue line). However rates remain well above where they were at the turn of the century.
Today StatCan reported that "Canada's natural resource wealth—the dollar value of selected natural resource reserves—decreased by 10% from $1,520 billion in 2023 to $1,362 billion in 2024." The unavoidable vulnerability of Canada's resource economy to changing world commodity prices explains this.
The Daily — Canada's natural resource wealth, 2024
Canada's natural resource wealth—the dollar value of selected natural resource reserves—decreased by 10% from $1,520 billion in 2023 to $1,362 billion in 2024. These resources represented 8% of Canada...
www150.statcan.gc.ca
November 20, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Today StatCan reported that "Canada's natural resource wealth—the dollar value of selected natural resource reserves—decreased by 10% from $1,520 billion in 2023 to $1,362 billion in 2024." The unavoidable vulnerability of Canada's resource economy to changing world commodity prices explains this.
Here are the implicit overall capital depreciation rates by industry. I suspect the movement in these rates through time is more a reflection of the changing composition of investment than of changes in the durability of specific capital assets. #cdnecon
November 19, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Here are the implicit overall capital depreciation rates by industry. I suspect the movement in these rates through time is more a reflection of the changing composition of investment than of changes in the durability of specific capital assets. #cdnecon
While investment has been stagnant, the capital stock has continued to grow, albeit at a slower rate than prior to 2015. This appears to be because the weakness in investment has been disproportionately in the machinery and equipment category, which has a higher average depreciation rate. #cdnecon
November 19, 2025 at 7:56 PM
While investment has been stagnant, the capital stock has continued to grow, albeit at a slower rate than prior to 2015. This appears to be because the weakness in investment has been disproportionately in the machinery and equipment category, which has a higher average depreciation rate. #cdnecon
Canada's productivity growth has flatlined and it's clear we need more investment. StatCan released investment and capital stock data by industry this week for 2024. Total investment has shown no net growth since 2014, when world energy prices plunged. Many industries account for this. #cdnecon
November 19, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Canada's productivity growth has flatlined and it's clear we need more investment. StatCan released investment and capital stock data by industry this week for 2024. Total investment has shown no net growth since 2014, when world energy prices plunged. Many industries account for this. #cdnecon
The narcissist.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
A Tiny West Wing Office Is Big on Trump Messaging
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:00 AM
The narcissist.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
Many Canadian economists worry about our real GDP growth relative to the US counterpart over the last decade (often in per capita terms) while also worrying about Canada's federal deficits being too big. But you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Huge US deficits have been hugely stimulative.
November 13, 2025 at 2:55 AM
Many Canadian economists worry about our real GDP growth relative to the US counterpart over the last decade (often in per capita terms) while also worrying about Canada's federal deficits being too big. But you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Huge US deficits have been hugely stimulative.
Our Canadian oligarchs are getting older as well as richer and more numerous. Their median age was 60, their median income was $5,366,400 and the threshold income for entry into the top 0.01% of tax filers was $3,487,600 in 2023. They had 1.3% of total income and paid 3.0% of income taxes. #cdnecon
November 9, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Our Canadian oligarchs are getting older as well as richer and more numerous. Their median age was 60, their median income was $5,366,400 and the threshold income for entry into the top 0.01% of tax filers was $3,487,600 in 2023. They had 1.3% of total income and paid 3.0% of income taxes. #cdnecon
Canada's LFS full-time employment has been growing well below its post-pandemic trend line this year. For the 55+ age group, growth stopped in 2024. Private sector employment weakened first, but lately public sector growth has slackened too. Self-employment has dipped only in the last three months.
November 8, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Canada's LFS full-time employment has been growing well below its post-pandemic trend line this year. For the 55+ age group, growth stopped in 2024. Private sector employment weakened first, but lately public sector growth has slackened too. Self-employment has dipped only in the last three months.
Politicians can be so ignorant and just plain stupid sometimes when trying to defend the indefensible.
Q: Food prices are still going up. Grocery prices are still going up. How do you respond?
MIKE JOHNSON: All of the economist have shown that food prices always go up. There's an inflationary level that's built in to grocery prices.
MIKE JOHNSON: All of the economist have shown that food prices always go up. There's an inflationary level that's built in to grocery prices.
November 6, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Politicians can be so ignorant and just plain stupid sometimes when trying to defend the indefensible.
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian monthly economic indicator charts. #cdnecon
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
November 6, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Here's an update to my set of 100 Canadian monthly economic indicator charts. #cdnecon
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
www.philipsmith.ca/Canadian_mac...
Today's release from Rentals.ca indicates average asking rents continued to fall in October. A good sign for the "affordability" problem. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Today's release from Rentals.ca indicates average asking rents continued to fall in October. A good sign for the "affordability" problem. #cdnecon
Here are average disposable household incomes by province in 2024, calculated using the provincial economic accounts released by StatCan today. Median incomes, which are substantially lower, must be calculated with income tax data that are not yet available for 2024. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Here are average disposable household incomes by province in 2024, calculated using the provincial economic accounts released by StatCan today. Median incomes, which are substantially lower, must be calculated with income tax data that are not yet available for 2024. #cdnecon
StatCan released provincial economic accounts data for 2024 today. Here are some international and interprovincial trade estimates, and some business investment statistics, that set the standard from which government policy in 2025 is trying to depart. #cdnecon
November 6, 2025 at 2:24 PM
StatCan released provincial economic accounts data for 2024 today. Here are some international and interprovincial trade estimates, and some business investment statistics, that set the standard from which government policy in 2025 is trying to depart. #cdnecon
It seems StatCan has a permanent 12% budget cut, phased in, but no specific programs have been identified for the cut. Apparently they will try to do this entirely through efficiencies and reductions in data frequency and detail across the board. Sounds to me like "death by a thousand cuts".
November 6, 2025 at 12:39 AM
It seems StatCan has a permanent 12% budget cut, phased in, but no specific programs have been identified for the cut. Apparently they will try to do this entirely through efficiencies and reductions in data frequency and detail across the board. Sounds to me like "death by a thousand cuts".
Here's a look at almost-five-year salaried employment trends in Canada's four big provinces, from SEPH. The picture has been generally weak starting in 2024, with Alberta doing the best of the four. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Here's a look at almost-five-year salaried employment trends in Canada's four big provinces, from SEPH. The picture has been generally weak starting in 2024, with Alberta doing the best of the four. #cdnecon
SEPH-based employment growth has been relatively slow over the last 2-3 years. It increased just 1.9%, seasonally adjusted, between January 2023 and August 2025. But one standout industry has been child day-care services, jumping 20.8% over this same period and still soaring. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 PM
SEPH-based employment growth has been relatively slow over the last 2-3 years. It increased just 1.9%, seasonally adjusted, between January 2023 and August 2025. But one standout industry has been child day-care services, jumping 20.8% over this same period and still soaring. #cdnecon
SEPH's standard work week for salaried employees has proven itself to be a good cyclical indicator. It has been on a downward trend since April 2024. #cdnecon
October 30, 2025 at 6:50 PM
SEPH's standard work week for salaried employees has proven itself to be a good cyclical indicator. It has been on a downward trend since April 2024. #cdnecon