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Phil Smith

@philsmith26.bsky.social

1.3K followers 160 following 690 posts

Canadian economist and statistician. https://linktr.ee/philsmith26

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · Sep 10

I invite you to read my latest Substack paper about three alternative summary indicators of economic welfare. #cdnecon substack.com/home/post/p-...

Real GDP per capita vs real HDI per capita since 2019

Why have they evolved so differently? What are the implications?

substack.com

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10h

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 1d

Canada's labour market has been driven by a strong up-and-down swing in population growth over the last four years, caused by changing federal non-permanent employee policies. The downswing that began in 2024 continued in September, but it is not over yet. #cdnecon

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 1d

Here is my LFS browser, updated with today's release of the September statistics. #cdnecon philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/LFStables/

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 3d

Exports of selected metals by stage of fabrication so far in 2025. #cdnecon

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Reposted by Phil Smith

John P de New 🇦🇺🇨🇦🇩🇪🇪🇺 @denewjohn.bsky.social · 6d

Love this flag

From @cultmtl.com

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 6d

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10d

Higher federal debt in the years ahead will mean higher interest payments, but interest rates have been edging down after the 2022 increase and in any case as a % of GDP debt charges are lower than in the 1960s. As for fixed investment, the government has spent next-to-nothing for the last 25 years.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10d

The difference this time, compared to the previous decades, is the debt increases are to finance needed infrastructure, housing and defence investments, not higher consumption and transfers. It's like taking on a mortgage to buy a house, not borrowing to pay for immediate living improvements.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10d

The Government of Canada has seen some enormous deficits over the last 60+ years, but the current one looks modest to me. Projections for the next few years appear "shocking" and unsustainable" according to the new PBO, but they may be exactly what the country needs at this juncture.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 10d

Les Canadiens à Québec, from the top left: Kapanen, Demidov, Dach, Dobson, Slafkovský, A. Xhekaj, Veleno, Laine, Caufield, Struble, Kahkonen, Hutson, Bolduc, Blais, F. Xhekaj, Beck, Carrier, Dobes, Newhook, Anderson, Matheson, Suzuki, Gallagher, Montembeault, Guhle, Evans, Engstrom

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 15d

Assuming, given govt plans, the deficit will indeed increase substantially in the next couple of years, how comparable will the crisis situation be to the recessions of the early 1990s and 2008-2009 and the pandemic in 2020? Robust fiscal policy may well be essential to counteract a deep recession.

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 15d

Some Canadians are expressing great concern about the federal deficit. But it has been relatively low since the pandemic surge, other than a one-time jump in early 2024 due mainly to Indigenous claim settlements. The concern should be the coming two years or so, not the present.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16d

It is value added. The documentation is here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-60...

The Natural Resources Satellite Account – Sources and methods

The natural resources sector is an important part of the Canadian economic landscape. It plays a significant role in Canada’s economic growth, employment and investment. The development of new mines, ...

www150.statcan.gc.ca

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16d

StatCan released natural resource value-added data today for 2025 Q2. Energy accounts for 64% of the total, minerals and mining for 27%, forestry for 5% and hunting, fishing and water for the rest. All four components dropped in volume terms in the quarter, though energy is trending up. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16d

SEPH data for July show again how the Cdn economy has been weakening this year. Although total labour compensation rose 3.5% over the last 12 months, total hours worked fell 0.3%. Real average hourly earnings rose a still-robust 1%, continuing to 'catch up' as is typical when the economy turns down.

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 16d

You can easily review the details of StatCan's payroll employment and earnings release for July 2025, in an historical time series context, in my SEPH browser here: philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17d

Canadian non-permanent resident estimated inflows and outflows. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 17d

Data released by StatCan today indicate that seasonally adjusted population growth in 2025 Q2 was the lowest it has been in a long time. There was a 2nd consecutive quarter of substantial decline in the non-permanent resident population, reflecting government policies aimed at achieving that.

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 18d

@dbcurren.bsky.social
@econreporter.bsky.social
@hollsworld.bsky.social
@thisisyee.bsky.social
@pwamenear.bsky.social
@fosfene.bsky.social

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/fact_checkin...

Fact File: Canada a top contributor to Ukraine aid, but per capita claims exaggerated

Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Ukraine this past weekend where he outlined part of a $2 billion military aid package first announced at the G7 summit in Alberta in June.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 19d

I saw Mark Carney on TV today saying, among other things, that Canada has contributed more in per capita terms to Ukraine than any other country. This really surprised me and it delights me if true. Does anyone know a data source confirming this?

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23d

Here is a brief statistical picture of our gradually weakening labour market. #cdnecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23d

Real Canadian average hourly earnings continued to grow on a 12-month basis in August, according to the LFS. #cndecon

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Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 23d

Labour compensation is a key driver of consumer expenditure and GDP. Its monthly growth has been decreasing gradually over the past two years, due not so much to slower growth in average hourly earnings, but rather to weaker employment and declines in average weekly hours worked. #cdnecon

Phil Smith @philsmith26.bsky.social · 25d

Here is the Canadian government's target for dwelling unit creation with some historical context. #cdnecon

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