Jonathan McDowell
planet4589.bsky.social
Jonathan McDowell
@planet4589.bsky.social
Astrophysicist
Elon has apparently finally abandoned his 20 year long assertion that he was just about to build a city on Mars any day now :-)
February 9, 2026 at 6:59 AM
Apologies: Updates from me will be spotty for the next week while I am on travel.
February 7, 2026 at 9:40 PM
LAUNCH at 2058 UTC Feb of Starlink Group 17-33 from Vandenberg
February 7, 2026 at 9:39 PM
The Chinese spaceplane launched last night has been cataloged in a 344 x 590 km x 50 deg orbit together with the CZ-2F upper stage and two ejected upper stage separation motor covers. TLEs suggest a launch around 0358 UTC Feb 7.
February 7, 2026 at 4:16 PM
LAUNCH at about 0357 UTC Feb 7 of a CZ-2F from Jiuquan with the fourth flight of the Chinese robotic recoverable spaceplane (usually thought of as comparable to the X-37B).
February 7, 2026 at 7:18 AM
The six cubesats deployed from the ISS on Feb 3 have been given catalog numbers 67683 to 67688 (1998-067XZ to YE)
February 7, 2026 at 7:17 AM
One object with TLEs so far from this launch, in a 487 x 512 x 96.6 deg, 1030 LTDN sunsync orbit. It is 2026-023E, so possibly there are 5 payloads?
Russia launched a Soyuz-2-1B at 1859 UTC Feb 5 with one or more Kosmos military sats aboard
February 6, 2026 at 3:09 AM
I talked to Pitchbook about the proposed million sat constellation pitchbook.com/news/article...
A leading astrophysicist has some questions for Elon - PitchBook
A Q&A with Jonathan McDowell, a leading expert on Earth orbit, about his doubts that SpaceX can pull off its vision of orbital data centers powering the world.
pitchbook.com
February 6, 2026 at 12:10 AM
Russia launched a Soyuz-2-1B at 1859 UTC Feb 5 with one or more Kosmos military sats aboard
February 5, 2026 at 10:51 PM
The F9 second stage reentered between about 0130 and 0330 UTC Feb 3, according to US Space Force.
Space Force has cataloged the errant Starlink 17-32 Falcon 9 upper stage as object 67673 in a 110 x 241 km x 97.3 deg orbit. It will reenter quickly.
February 3, 2026 at 10:24 PM
Space Force has cataloged the errant Starlink 17-32 Falcon 9 upper stage as object 67673 in a 110 x 241 km x 97.3 deg orbit. It will reenter quickly.
February 3, 2026 at 3:28 AM
I've posted a modified set of shells based on a closer reading of the FCC documents, with just 30 deg and sun-sync inclinations
I've mocked up a set of constellation shells consistent with the limited available data on the mega-sat SpaceX orbital data center system and added them to planet4589.org/space/con/co... for a total of 1.7 million proposed satellites worldwide
Jonathan's Space Report | Space Statistics
Jonathan McDowell's new homepage
planet4589.org
February 2, 2026 at 11:33 PM
Reposted by Jonathan McDowell
In my latest policy brief for CIGI, I explain and apply a responsible innovation framework to spacefaring and ask whether a more ethical and sustainable space future is possible.

Case studies include Artemis, innovative in LEO and space resources.

www.cigionline.org/publications...
For All Humankind: A Framework for Responsible Spacefaring
As spacefaring rapidly expands to include more and different kinds of stakeholders, activities, benefits and risks, we need to think more broadly about what we are doing in space, especially through s...
www.cigionline.org
February 2, 2026 at 5:52 PM
LAUNCH at 1547 UTC Feb 2 of Starlink Group 17-32 from Vandenberg Space Force Base
February 2, 2026 at 4:52 PM
I've mocked up a set of constellation shells consistent with the limited available data on the mega-sat SpaceX orbital data center system and added them to planet4589.org/space/con/co... for a total of 1.7 million proposed satellites worldwide
Jonathan's Space Report | Space Statistics
Jonathan McDowell's new homepage
planet4589.org
February 1, 2026 at 7:18 PM
Alsat-3B tracked in a 488 x 504 km x 97.5 km orbit following successful CZ-2C launch.
January 31, 2026 at 9:12 PM
SpaceX has put in a kinda-sorta-application to the FCC for an orbital data center constellation with a MILLION satellites. However, the description is rather vague without the usual specifics of the orbital parameters of each shell. fccprod.servicenowservices.com/icfs?id=ibfs...
ICFS Application Summary - ICFS Portal
fccprod.servicenowservices.com
January 31, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Glad to see USSF filling in the empty catalog number slots. 65403 assigned to another object from Transporter 14; 66779 and 66880 assigned to Transporter-15 objects. However, 8 of 68 T14 objects and 43 of 130 T15 objects remain unidentified.
January 31, 2026 at 5:39 AM
LAUNCH at 0401 UTC Jan 31 of a Chang Zheng 2C from Jiuquan with Algeria's AlSat-3B imaging satellite
January 31, 2026 at 4:50 AM
Suborbital LAUNCH at 1320 UTC Jan 30 of NASA flight 36.399UE, a Black Brant 9 carrying the Polar NOx payload from Poker Flat, Alaska. Apogee height unknown.
January 31, 2026 at 4:49 AM
Russia's decommissioned Olimp signals intelligence satellite, abandoned in the GEO graveyard orbit region in Oct 2025, has apparently disintegrated - possibly due to a debris hit since internal energy sources should have been vented when it was retired
Russia's secret Olymp-1 "stocking" satellite seemingly blows up in its graveyard orbit, a few hundred kilometers above heavily trafficked geostationary orbit
DETAILS: www.russianspaceweb.com/olymp.html#2...
January 30, 2026 at 4:29 PM
The ZQ-3 rocket stage and its attached dummy payload, possibly with a total mass of around 7 tonnes, reentered over the South Pacific at 1239 UTC Jan 30
6/x
CORRECTED MAP:
there was a sign error in the input so the CSpOC location was plotted wrong. Here is the correct version:
January 30, 2026 at 3:39 PM
LAUNCH of Starlink 6-101 at 0722 UTC Jan 30 from Canaveral
January 30, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Korea's Neonsat-1A cataloged in a 535 x 552 km sun-sync orbit, confirming successful launch by Rocket Lab
January 30, 2026 at 10:34 AM
Up at 4am local this morning here in Boston to tele-join a UK meeting of the Earth and Space Sustainability Initiative (ESSI), an industry-academia organization to develop space sustainability standards. Lots of impressive experts on the call, I'm glad to see the engagement on these issues.
January 30, 2026 at 10:10 AM