Adrian Esterman
@profesterman.bsky.social
Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, Adelaide University.
Evidence-based updates on public health & outbreaks.
Also on X/Twitter: @profesterman
Evidence-based updates on public health & outbreaks.
Also on X/Twitter: @profesterman
Pinned
I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter:
@profesterman
@profesterman
A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids.
Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself.
In short: infection carries the bigger risk.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself.
In short: infection carries the bigger risk.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Vascular and inflammatory diseases after COVID-19 infection and vaccination in children and young people in England: a retrospective, population-based cohort study using linked electronic health recor...
Children and young people have higher risks of rare vascular and inflammatory diseases
up to 12 months after a first COVID-19 diagnosis and higher risk of rare myocarditis
or pericarditis up to 4 week...
www.thelancet.com
January 19, 2026 at 11:31 PM
A lot of worry about myocarditis after COVID vaccines in kids.
Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself.
In short: infection carries the bigger risk.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Large England study shows it’s rare, usually short-lived, and less common than after COVID infection itself.
In short: infection carries the bigger risk.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada
theconversation.com/new-variant-...
Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".
theconversation.com/new-variant-...
Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".
New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada
A particularly infectious subvariant of influenza is keeping emergency room numbers high and causing especially severe illness in children.
theconversation.com
January 18, 2026 at 11:03 PM
New variant of the flu virus is driving surge of cases across the US and Canada
theconversation.com/new-variant-...
Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".
theconversation.com/new-variant-...
Another good article from The Conversation. Unusually for The Conversation, I did notice a typo "subclave" instead of "subclade".
South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.
January 18, 2026 at 4:27 AM
South Carolina reports hundreds of measles cases, with rapid growth in recent days — the U.S. is seeing one of the largest outbreaks in years amid low vaccination coverage.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.
Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.
Increased phosphorylated tau (pTau-181) is associated with neurological post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease in essential workers: a prospective cohort study before and after COVID-19 onset
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a spectrum of post-acute sequelae including several neurological complications including cognitive dysfunction labelled N…
www.sciencedirect.com
January 17, 2026 at 11:06 AM
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.
Study of essential workers finds neurological Long COVID linked to rises in plasma pTau-181 after infection, especially with long-lasting central symptoms (brain fog etc). pTau-181 increases assoc. with amyloid changes. Early biomarker signal, not diagnosis.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/
Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.
Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.
Association between COVID-19 and New-Onset Autoimmune Diseases: Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 97 Million Individuals - PubMed
SARS-CoV-2 infection may induce long-term immune dysregulation; however, its contribution to the development of autoimmune disease remains disputed. We aim to quantify the relative risk of new-onset autoimmune diseases following COVID-19 and its modifiers through a systematic review and meta-analysi …
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
January 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41452424/
Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.
Large meta-analysis (250M+ person-years) - COVID-19 linked to ~50% higher relative risk of some autoimmune diseases. Risk higher after severe infection, lower in vaccinated people. Evidence moderate–low → signal, not certainty. Supports vaccination & follow-up.
www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio...
Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.
Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.
Coronavirus found in samples from 96% of flights
If you believe it’s now safe to fly without a protective mask, you might want to think again. New research shows the COVID-19 virus has been found on nearly every flight.
www.audacy.com
January 17, 2026 at 10:52 AM
www.audacy.com/wwjnewsradio...
Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.
Reports that SARS-CoV-2 was found in wastewater from ~96% of flights sound alarming, but when global prevalence is high (2022), almost every large flight will include at least one infected passenger. This is non-infectious RNA. Useful for surveillance, not panic.
I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter:
@profesterman
@profesterman
January 16, 2026 at 6:37 AM
I’m also posting public health & epidemiology commentary on X/Twitter:
@profesterman
@profesterman
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX...
Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression
Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression
Stanford neuromodulation therapy for treatment‐resistant depression: a randomized controlled trial confirming efficacy, and an EEG study providing insight into mechanism of action and a potentially predictive biomarker of efficacy
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onlinelibrary.wiley.com
January 16, 2026 at 6:06 AM
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/EGKVVX...
Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression
Small trial - but amazing results, and hope for those with resistant depression
www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts...
Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining
Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining
Surgical masks are harming health workers — Professor Trisha Greenhalgh explains why
The renowned GP researcher has endorsed a letter to the WHO calling for an update to its advice for doctors and healthcare workers.
www.ausdoc.com.au
January 15, 2026 at 10:47 PM
www.ausdoc.com.au/news/experts...
Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining
Ausdoc is a great website. Worth joining
Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May.
#AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth
#AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth
January 12, 2026 at 7:14 AM
Australia is seeing an off-season flu surge with 4,100+ lab-confirmed cases so far this year, many linked to highly transmissible influenza A(H3N2) subclade K. If symptomatic, get tested, consider antivirals if high-risk, and stay home. 2026 vaccines due Apr–May.
#AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth
#AusFlu #Flu2026 #PublicHealth
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.
New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.
TARGET 2025 Statement
This Special Communication introduces the Transparent Reporting of Observational Studies Emulating a Target Trial (TARGET) 2025 guideline, a consensus-based guidance for reporting observational studie...
jamanetwork.com
January 8, 2026 at 10:59 PM
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.
New epi methods guidance (TARGET) helps separate ‘association’ from credible causal inference in observational studies.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov...
We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.
We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.
COVID continues to exact heavy toll on older US adults, study suggests
www.cidrap.umn.edu
January 7, 2026 at 11:20 PM
www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/cov...
We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.
We have a similar situation in Australia, with only 53% of people in Residential Aged Care up to date with their booster.
Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026
theconversation.com/viral-outbre...
Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.
theconversation.com/viral-outbre...
Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.
Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026
Viral infections are on the rise and spreading across the globe.
theconversation.com
January 7, 2026 at 11:10 PM
Viral outbreaks are always on the horizon – here are the viruses an infectious disease expert is watching in 2026
theconversation.com/viral-outbre...
Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.
theconversation.com/viral-outbre...
Good overview. We do now have vaccines against HPAI H5N1, and many countries are stockpiling doses.
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...?
Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.
Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.
Rise in holiday measles infections sparks health alerts in NSW, SA and Victoria
Cases of the highly contagious virus jumped nearly threefold in 2025 as immunisation rates declined
www.theguardian.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:39 AM
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...?
Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.
Uptake now 93% Need 95% for herd immunity.
HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out.
January 7, 2026 at 5:16 AM
HPV vaccination rates are down in Queensland. I have explained why in the Courier Mail and in an interview with 7News Sunshine Coast. It is mainly due to parents not signing or returning consent forms. Current system is paper-based and opt-in. Need electronic and opt-out.
A new systematic review of 64 studies (2.4 million people, 20 countries) shows long COVID clusters into distinct symptom patterns.
Key clusters:
• Fatigue (often with pain, brain fog, breathlessness)
• Respiratory
• Neurologic
• GI
• Olfactory/gustatory & cardiopulmonary patterns
Key clusters:
• Fatigue (often with pain, brain fog, breathlessness)
• Respiratory
• Neurologic
• GI
• Olfactory/gustatory & cardiopulmonary patterns
January 6, 2026 at 5:33 AM
A new systematic review of 64 studies (2.4 million people, 20 countries) shows long COVID clusters into distinct symptom patterns.
Key clusters:
• Fatigue (often with pain, brain fog, breathlessness)
• Respiratory
• Neurologic
• GI
• Olfactory/gustatory & cardiopulmonary patterns
Key clusters:
• Fatigue (often with pain, brain fog, breathlessness)
• Respiratory
• Neurologic
• GI
• Olfactory/gustatory & cardiopulmonary patterns
👋 I’m Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology (Adelaide University, ex-WHO).
I post daily, evidence-based updates on infectious diseases, outbreaks & vaccine policy – focused on Australia & global health.
Follow for concise #EpiSky briefings.
I post daily, evidence-based updates on infectious diseases, outbreaks & vaccine policy – focused on Australia & global health.
Follow for concise #EpiSky briefings.
January 6, 2026 at 5:26 AM
👋 I’m Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology (Adelaide University, ex-WHO).
I post daily, evidence-based updates on infectious diseases, outbreaks & vaccine policy – focused on Australia & global health.
Follow for concise #EpiSky briefings.
I post daily, evidence-based updates on infectious diseases, outbreaks & vaccine policy – focused on Australia & global health.
Follow for concise #EpiSky briefings.
A highly transmissible H3N2 influenza subclade K that contributes to a prolonged 2025 season in Australia is now linked to record outbreaks in the US and UK, overwhelming healthcare systems despite vaccination still reducing severity. Vaccination remains critical.
January 6, 2026 at 2:06 AM
A highly transmissible H3N2 influenza subclade K that contributes to a prolonged 2025 season in Australia is now linked to record outbreaks in the US and UK, overwhelming healthcare systems despite vaccination still reducing severity. Vaccination remains critical.
Measles is back on the radar in Australia: multiple exposure alerts tied to international travel. If you’re unsure about your MMR status (esp. born after 1965), check now—vaccination protects you and stops onward spread.
January 5, 2026 at 6:32 AM
Measles is back on the radar in Australia: multiple exposure alerts tied to international travel. If you’re unsure about your MMR status (esp. born after 1965), check now—vaccination protects you and stops onward spread.
A Happy New Year to all my followers. My resolution is to be more active on BlueSky in future. Also, now happy to have moved to our new School of Public Health at Adelaide University.
December 31, 2025 at 7:42 AM
A Happy New Year to all my followers. My resolution is to be more active on BlueSky in future. Also, now happy to have moved to our new School of Public Health at Adelaide University.
Is there much COVID around? Do I need the new booster shot LP.8.1?
theconversation.com/is-there-muc...
My new article for The Conversation
theconversation.com/is-there-muc...
My new article for The Conversation
Is there much COVID around? Do I need the new booster shot LP.8.1?
As we prepare for the festive season, it’s easy to let COVID boosters fall off our to-do lists. But COVID is still circulating and new shots are available.
theconversation.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Is there much COVID around? Do I need the new booster shot LP.8.1?
theconversation.com/is-there-muc...
My new article for The Conversation
theconversation.com/is-there-muc...
My new article for The Conversation
More people died from influenza than COVID-19 in August, for the first time since the height of the pandemic, according to the ABS. 265 people died from or with influenza compared with 195 deaths associated with COVID-19.
November 2, 2025 at 11:33 PM
More people died from influenza than COVID-19 in August, for the first time since the height of the pandemic, according to the ABS. 265 people died from or with influenza compared with 195 deaths associated with COVID-19.
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...
New research shows seasonal flu vaccines could also offer some protection against H5N1 bird flu. In ferrets (our best model for human flu), vaccinated animals had milder illness and lower virus levels after H5N1 exposure.
New research shows seasonal flu vaccines could also offer some protection against H5N1 bird flu. In ferrets (our best model for human flu), vaccinated animals had milder illness and lower virus levels after H5N1 exposure.
Effect of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines on Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus Infection in Ferrets
Effect of Influenza Vaccines on H5N1 in Ferrets
wwwnc.cdc.gov
September 29, 2025 at 1:35 AM
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...
New research shows seasonal flu vaccines could also offer some protection against H5N1 bird flu. In ferrets (our best model for human flu), vaccinated animals had milder illness and lower virus levels after H5N1 exposure.
New research shows seasonal flu vaccines could also offer some protection against H5N1 bird flu. In ferrets (our best model for human flu), vaccinated animals had milder illness and lower virus levels after H5N1 exposure.
Queensland: The measles outbreak tied to overseas travel (particularly from SE Asia) continues. Queensland Health has issued alerts after exposure incidents including at Cairns Hospital maternity ward. Masking is now required in high‑risk hospital wards.
September 22, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Queensland: The measles outbreak tied to overseas travel (particularly from SE Asia) continues. Queensland Health has issued alerts after exposure incidents including at Cairns Hospital maternity ward. Masking is now required in high‑risk hospital wards.