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US semis & hardware: Two years into the AI boom - who has benefited most?
Investing.com -- Two years into the artificial intelligence boom, semiconductor stocks have emerged as the clear winners, according to new research from Bernstein. “Semiconductors have been the biggest winner— which appears justified by more significant revisions,” the firm wrote in a note to clients this week. Bernstein noted that “semiconductor stocks have been the biggest sector-level winners, with aggregate enterprise value up 253%, compared to the S&P at 56%.” The analysts said this surge “appears justified by greater revisions, with semiconductor 2025 revenue estimates up 45%, compared to the next highest sector (construction and engineering firms) up 35%.” Overall, Bernstein found that companies in its long-list “have been significant with 2025 revenue estimates up 7.3%, EBIT estimates up 23.3%, net income estimates up 23.8%, and FCF estimates up 15.0% compared to what was expected in May 2023 — driving a 99% increase in enterprise value.” Investors, it added, appear most willing to pay for revenue revisions. At the individual stock level, Bernstein said, “Nvidia remains the stand-out winner — the stock has actually seen multiple compression on an EBIT basis, with the ~6x move in the stock driven by 4.6x revenue revisions and 36% higher than expected margins.” Other major gainers include Super Micro, which has seen “very modest multiple expansion despite large revisions,” while Broadcom and Vertiv “have seen similar increases in market cap to Nvidia despite much smaller revisions.” 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Bernstein concluded that, despite signs of digestion in parts of the market, “investors are still willing to extrapolate near-to-medium term strength through to the longer-term,” particularly for semiconductors, “which historically have often traded as cyclicals.” With NVDA making headlines, savvy investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? In a market full of overpriced darlings, identifying true value can be challenging. InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed NVDA alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems. These undervalued stocks, potentially including NVDA, could offer substantial returns as the market corrects. In 2025 alone, our AI identified several undervalued stocks that later surged by 50% or more. Is NVDA poised for similar growth? Don't miss the opportunity to find out.
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US-China trade war clouds global economic outlook as ’new normal’ emerges
By David Lawder, David Milliken and Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON (Reuters) -International finance chiefs are returning home with a measure of relief over the surprising resilience of the global economy to the cascade of policy shocks through the first nine months of Donald Trump’s second U.S. presidency but also drained by seemingly never-ending uncertainty over what lies ahead. When finance ministers and central bankers gathered in Washington in April for the first of the twice-yearly meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the anxiety over Trump’s just-unveiled "Liberation Day" tariffs was palpable. Six months on at the just-concluded October meetings, that had been replaced by fatigue and wariness that the policy landscape is never fully settled. "It’s been just absolutely exhausting since Liberation Day as a policymaker, trying to make sense and then actually make policy and communicate to the public about this," Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat said. "So the uncertainty has been very difficult." "The global economy appears to be more resilient than we thought several months ago. But there’s no room for complacency given various types of uncertainty," said a Japanese delegation official who participated in talks in Washington. "There was a great degree of discussion over uncertainties." A week of fractious back-and-forth between the U.S. and China drove the point home as Trump responded to new export controls on rare earth minerals from Beijing with the re-imposition of 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. The re-escalation of tensions between the world’s two largest economies sharpened the focus among the hundreds of policymakers taking part in the meetings, amid growing momentum for new trade arrangements outside the U.S.-China orbit. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she had rarely seen as much constructive engagement at the semi-annual meetings of finance officials and central bankers. "It may be because uncertainty is so high that there is no space for theatricals," Georgieva told a banking conference on Saturday. "It may be because now many countries realize that what they took for granted - international cooperation that helps us do better - we should not take for granted." STRENGTHENING REGIONAL, BILATERAL TIES Georgieva and World Trade Organization chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told participants it was promising that U.S.-China tensions - however intense - had not blown up into a wider trade war, and noted that many countries were in fact seeking to deepen bilateral and regional ties. New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis told Reuters she expected that trend to gain momentum against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. She said it was notable that the European Union was now looking to link up with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade deal between 11 member countries. "All of those trade relationships are very strong, and the messages that we’re having from our partners is that they wish to continue to build on them and expand them, rather than go the other way," she told Reuters in an interview. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s minister of planning, economic development and international cooperation, told Saturday’s event that increased regional cooperation was a "fallout" of global developments, but would remain important going forward. REFORMS NEEDED EVERYWHERE The situation also focused attention on strains in the global economy, including persistent and "excessive" external balances, near-record debt levels, growing worries about the non-bank sector and disruption from artificial intelligence technologies. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said frank discussion was needed, given the international community’s past failure to identify - and halt - the subprime mortgage developments that triggered the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Transparency was critical in an opaque world with tight cross-links between banking, insurance and private finance. "It’s our duty to lift the lid and see what’s going on," Bailey said at an event hosted by the Group of Thirty on Saturday. “We’ve obviously had a few events that are going on at the moment where we are having to ask the question, are these one-offs or is it the canary in the coal mine?" Georgieva underscored her concern about "stretched valuations," following the IMF’s warning on Tuesday that markets are too comfortable with risks, including trade wars, geopolitical tensions and yawning government deficits, which heightened the risk of a "disorderly" market correction. The IMF chief said she ended the week with a long list of to-do’s, including reviews of how the IMF conducts its surveillance of countries’ economies and assesses their debt levels, while Okonjo-Iweala underscored the urgency for WTO reforms. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. "We need to diversify trade," WTO’s Okonjo-Iweala said, noting that global trade had clearly helped many countries, even if results had been uneven, leaving other countries behind. "We need to fix parts of it that don’t work," she said. "We need to re-imagine globalization. We cannot have what we had in the past," she said. CLIMATE RISKS MOUNTING Climate change posed perhaps the biggest risk, officials agreed, despite Trump’s recent comments at the United Nations, calling it a "con job." The issue bubbled up during a meeting of the IMF steering committee on Friday, where South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago told officials that climate risk was indisputably a macro-critical issue with huge implications for insurance, economic fundamentals and financial stability. "In trade negotiations, you can walk away ... and you can find another trading partner," Kganyago told the G30 conference. "With climate, when you walk away from the negotiations, the whole planet gets warm and we will all suffer." Which stocks should you consider in your very next trade? The best opportunities often hide in plain sight—buried among thousands of stocks you'd never have time to research individually. That's why smart investors use our Stock Screener with 50+ predefined screens and 160+ customizable filters to surface hidden gems instantly. For example, the Piotroski's Picks method averages 23% annual returns by focusing on financial strength, and you can get it as a standalone screen. Momentum Masters catches stocks gaining serious traction, while Blue-Chip Bargains finds undervalued giants. With screens for dividends, growth, value, and more, you'll discover opportunities others miss. Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns!
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’Best houses in a tough neighbourhood,’ Morgan Stanley upbeat on UK stocks
Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley said UK equities are becoming more attractive for investors, supported by stock-specific factors rather than the broader economy, even as global market risks rise toward the end of the month. The bank said the UK market’s low volatility and limited exposure to domestic economic trends make it appealing as investors brace for geopolitical tensions and rate uncertainties. UK equities are low beta, under-owned, and full of company-specific drivers, The report said investor interest in the UK is recovering from muted levels earlier this year, helped by expectations that the upcoming November budget may be “less bad than feared” for equities and bond markets. Morgan Stanley ranked UK equities fourth among European markets in its country model, led by strong performance from banks and global companies such as Rolls-Royce, AstraZeneca and BAE Systems. Rolls-Royce alone has been the single biggest contributor to the UK’s roughly 15% year-to-date gain, benefiting from a recovery in air travel and higher defense spending. Among its top picks, the bank highlighted Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays in financials, Next in retail, and BAE Systems in defense. Other preferred names include Imperial Brands, Compass Group and National Grid. The strategists described the UK market as “idiosyncratic” driven more by company fundamentals than macro conditions, noting that only about a quarter of FTSE 100 revenues come from domestic sources. “We like the UK from a European equity strategy perspective,” said Morgan Stanley analyst. “Our call is less about UK macro, and more UK equities’ rising level of attractive, bottom-up drivers, growing interest from investors from relatively low levels this year, & the added benefit of the market’s low beta as we approach month-end risks.” 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. ProPicks AI evaluates BARC alongside thousands of other companies every month using 100+ financial metrics. Using powerful AI to generate exciting stock ideas, it looks beyond popularity to assess fundamentals, momentum, and valuation. The AI has no bias—it simply identifies which stocks offer the best risk-reward based on current data with notable past winners that include Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Want to know if BARC is currently featured in any ProPicks AI strategies, or if there are better opportunities in the same space?
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5 big analyst AI moves: Nvidia, AMD upgraded; ASML seen on €1,000 path
Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week. InvestingPro subscribers always get first dibs on market-moving AI analyst comments. Upgrade today! HSBC lifts NVIDIA to Buy, sees fiscal 2027 AI revenue far ahead of consensus HSBC on Wednesday upgraded NVIDIA to Buy from Hold and raised its target price to $320 from $200, saying there is “room for significant fiscal 2027 (FY27) earnings upside” as AI chip demand expands beyond hyperscale cloud customers. The bank now expects NVIDIA’s FY27 datacenter revenue to reach $351 billion, which is 36% above consensus. “We upgrade NVIDIA to Buy on the back of increasing FY27e GPU total addressable market (TAM) relative to our previous expectations,” the analysts wrote. They added that a potential U.S.-China trade agreement could “enable NVIDIA to see a demand recovery in the Chinese market.” HSBC lifted its FY27 earnings per share estimate to $8.75 versus a consensus forecast of $6.48, noting this does not include any revenue from China exports. The bank also pointed to “renewed CoWoS wafer allocation momentum” for the first time since late 2025, with FY27 allocation raised to 700,000 wafers from 480,000, implying 140% growth year-on-year. “Our bull-case scenario suggests potentially $390bn in FY27e datacenter revenue, or an implied FY27e EPS of $9.68,” HSBC said. It also flagged that “recent NVIDIA AI deals imply potential AI GPU revenue opportunity of $251-400bn just from Stargate and OpenAI 18.3GW commitments.” 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. "We expect AI GPU TAM to keep increasing beyond hyperscalers, leading to continuous earnings growth," HSBC concluded. Samsung set for structural earnings growth on AI memory shortage: KB Samsung Electronics is set for a sustained earnings upswing as the supply of HBM and DRAM remains tight through 2027, KB Securities said, lifting its target price by 18% to 130,000 won and naming the stock its top pick in Korea’s semiconductor sector. The brokerage expects AI data center investment to surge fivefold by 2030, while meaningful new chip capacity will not come online until the Pyeongtaek P5 line and Yongin cluster begin operations in 2028. In the meantime, Samsung is seen benefiting from robust pricing and expanding margins tied to next-generation memory. Analyst Jeff Kim said Samsung is “benefiting directly from NVIDIA/OpenAI’s increasing HBM needs,” adding that “1c DRAM yield improvements enable full-scale HBM4 shipments from 2026.” KB raised its 2026 operating profit forecast by 20% to 64 trillion won, which would mark the highest in eight years. Samsung reported preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 12.1 trillion won, beating consensus by 19% and marking its strongest quarterly result since the third quarter of 2022. KB expects fourth-quarter profit of 12.5 trillion won and sees earnings climbing to 64.2 trillion won in 2026 on higher DRAM margins and improved foundry utilization. The firm expects legacy chip shortages to deepen as Samsung prioritizes Pyeongtaek P4 investments toward HBM4, foundry and NAND from 2026. It forecasts HBM revenue to triple that year, driving a shift “from recovery to structural growth” as the market reaches an inflection point. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Wolfe lifts AMD rating, target price on strong earnings outlook after OpenAI deal AMD was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, which set a $300 price target and said the company is now on a “conservative path to $10+ earnings power” by 2027. The call is anchored in AMD’s multi-year agreement with OpenAI and improving visibility in traditional server demand. Wolfe assumes $15 billion in annual revenue from OpenAI and a total of $27 billion in AI-related sales by 2027, supporting an EPS forecast of $10.36 for that year. The price target implies roughly 29 times that estimate, slightly above AMD’s five-year average multiple. AMD currently trades at around 36.5 times its calendar year 2026 (CY26) EPS estimate and about 21 times CY27, compared with its historical forward average of 28.1 times. Server CPU revenue forecasts were lifted after management said agentic AI demand is pulling forward orders. Wolfe now models $9.55 billion in server CPU revenue for 2025 and $11.4 billion for 2026. The OpenAI contract is expected to begin contributing in late 2026 with the MI450 ramp, with about $4.5 billion in server GPU revenue projected in the fourth quarter alone and a sharp acceleration into 2027. Wolfe also pointed to potential additional support in 2027 from Helios and MI450 rack-scale systems and the rollout of native UALink, while noting that execution will be critical and “risk is if the stock were to fall below the warrant target.” 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. UBS sees ASML on path to €1,000 as AI cycle drives earnings ASML shares jumped earlier this week after the chip equipment maker reported third-quarter results ahead of expectations and reaffirmed it will benefit from accelerating AI-related investment. The stock is up around 30% this year, outperforming the market, yet UBS believes there is still room for gains. The bank reiterated its Buy rating and raised its 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts by 6% to 10%, setting a €1,000 price target. ASML is trading at around 26 times expected 2027 earnings, below its historical average of 29 times, with earnings projected to grow at a 16% compound rate between 2025 and 2030. “Looking beyond 2027E, we anticipate that High NA adoption could bolster valuation multiples, potentially unlocking additional upside,” analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies wrote. The team sees high numerical aperture (NA) extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) tools as a key re-rating catalyst and expects improved visibility after the SPIE conference in February. While no High NA orders were recorded in the latest quarter, analysts say they remain “key to our thesis.” UBS describes the current setup as a “trajectory toward €1,000/share,” underpinned by AI-driven demand in memory and advanced logic. Management has indicated that 2026 revenue should not fall below 2025 levels, supported by stronger EUV momentum at customers like TSMC and a recovery in DRAM spending. The bank now forecasts TSMC tool sales to grow in the mid-single digits next year, compared with an earlier forecast for a 5% decline, and sees memory-related revenue rising 25% as DRAM wafer fab equipment investment increases. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. UBS also said the China risk is becoming more manageable, with regional revenues expected to normalise after a period of elevated demand. Total deep ultraviolet lithograpy (DUV) revenue is projected to decline 5% in 2026, but non-China demand is projected to rise 18%, led by advanced logic and memory customers. Goldman says Salesforce AI push could drive new growth wave Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating and $385 price target on Salesforce, saying the A-Day update strengthened confidence in its ability to sustain double-digit growth while expanding margins. Salesforce guided to more than $60 billion in fiscal 2030 revenue under a Rule-of-50 framework, implying roughly 10% annual growth and operating margins of about 40%. Shares were indicated up around 4% after the announcement. Analyst Kash Rangan said Salesforce can deliver “sustainable double-digit growth driven by product portfolio strength, distribution scale, and AI execution,” while improving profitability. He added that “AI, valuable business logic and data underpinning 150K+ customers, and deep semantic context can unleash a new growth wave over the next 4-5 years.” Goldman argues investors are still discounting SaaS incumbents on AI disruption fears rather than recognizing their leverage in data and distribution. New net annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth has re-accelerated toward about 10%, and the company expects to exceed that pace soon. Salesforce also disclosed $440 million in Agentic AI ARR in fiscal Q2 2026, up 400% year-on-year, which could prompt investors to “re-examine the AI bear case.” 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. While flagging uncertainty around timing and adoption of a consumption model, Goldman said Salesforce is better positioned than in prior cycles. It now sees free cash flow compounding toward $26-28 per share by fiscal 2030, opening scope for a “blue-sky scenario of $700-800” if revenue moves beyond $60 billion toward the $100 billion vision outlined by Marc Benioff. Should you invest $2,000 in NVDA right now? First, check if it's included in one of this month's AI-powered stock strategies for ProPicks AI. Investing.com created these strategies to identify the most exciting trading opportunities currently in the market. The stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years, like ViaSat and Sapiens, both up over 60%+ each in Q2 of 2025 alone. Is NVDA one of them?
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What is the effect of AI capital expenditures on the US GDP growth trajectory
Investing.com -- Capital expenditures on artificial intelligence by major U.S. technology firms added roughly 1 percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of 2025, according to Barclays calculations using BEA estimates. Spending was concentrated in computer equipment, software, and data centers, with the largest hyperscalers including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Nvidia driving the acceleration. The contribution is slightly smaller when accounting for imported content, falling to about 0.8 percentage point. Software and computer equipment were the primary drivers, while data center spending, which has drawn extensive media attention, peaked in early 2023 and has moderated since. Combined, these AI-sensitive categories totaled $1.04 billion saar in Q2 2025, representing roughly 25% of overall nonresidential fixed investment. Despite the headline numbers, Barclays notes that hyperscaler spending is a modest share of total U.S. business fixed investment (BFI), which exceeded $4 trillion in Q2 2025. Aggregate BFI rose 8.1% saar in H1 2025, with AI-sensitive investments explaining nearly all of the increase. The cumulative inflation-adjusted rise in Q1 and Q2 2025 was about $145 billion, or $160 billion in current dollars, enough to lift real GDP growth by roughly 1.0 percentage point. Capital outlays by the five largest hyperscalers are projected to grow from $370 billion in 2025 to nearly $510 billion by 2027, a 30% increase. However, this represents a deceleration from the rapid growth seen from 2023 to 2025, when annualized growth rates reached 60-70%. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. As a result, Barclays projects that the GDP contribution from AI-sensitive investments will peak this year at 1.0 percentage point, decline to 0.55 percentage point in 2026, and fall further to 0.2 percentage point in 2027. The potential for AI capital expenditures to sustain long-term GDP growth or productivity gains is limited. BFI accounts for 12% of nominal GDP, and raising structural productivity through capital deepening alone would require lifting the trajectory of business fixed investment by roughly 20%, a level not seen outside the 1990s. Adjustments for multiplier effects are expected to be minimal given near-full employment conditions. Complementary infrastructure, such as power generation, is projected to expand, with utilities planning roughly $1.1 trillion in spending from 2025-2029. Yet Barclays estimates the annualized GDP contribution of this investment to be small, peaking at 0.1 percentage point in 2025 and diminishing further in subsequent years. AI-driven capital expenditures gave a clear short-term lift to U.S. GDP in H1 2025, but Barclays analysis indicates the growth momentum is set to ease in the medium term. The largest hyperscalers’ capex boom, while significant in scale, accounts for a modest portion of total investment and is projected to decelerate, limiting the sustained effect on aggregate economic growth. Get an up-to-the-minute summary from WarrenAI, our powerful AI financial researcher. It's just like ChatGPT for investors, but with access to 1,200+ premium metrics spanning 10 years of data to instantly screen fundamentals, summarize breaking news, and reveal what Wall Street analysts are really saying about MSFT. Ask questions in your own language and get insider answers in seconds. Think of it as your experienced investment partner—always ready to help you think through every angle of MSFT.
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Street Calls of the Week
Investing.com -- Here is your Pro Recap of the top takeaways from Wall Street analysts for the past week. InvestingPro subscribers always get first dibs on market-moving AI analyst comments. Upgrade today! Palo Alto Networks What happened? On Monday, BTIG upgraded Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW) to Buy with a $248 price target. *TLDR: BTIG upgrades PANW to Buy; Cloud shift drives 12%+ growth, What’s the full story? BTIG’s dive into PANW reveals a bullish shift, with seven contacts—four partners handling $1.2B in annual sales, two industry analysts, and a CISO—singing a surprisingly upbeat tune. The analysts see PANW crushing its FY26 targets: 14% revenue growth and 26% NGS ARR growth, fueled by a pivot to cloud and recurring revenue. NGS ARR, now 47% of total revenue, is set to hit 65%+ by FY27, turbocharged by the CYBR acquisition. This mix shift underpins BTIG’s confidence in PANW sustaining 12%+ growth long-term. The analysts upgrade PANW to Buy, sticking a $248/share price target on it, pegged to a 35.0x CY27E EV/FCF multiple—above the stock’s 30.0x-32.0x historical range but justified by its cloud-heavy future. Pro forma with Cyberark (NASDAQ:CYBR), PANW’s poised for high-teens FCF growth for years. BTIG’s estimates for FY26 and FY27 hold steady, but the vibe’s clear: PANW’s not just playing the game—it’s rewriting the rules. AMD What happened? On Tuesday, Wolfe upgraded Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) to Outperform with a $300 price target. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. *TLDR: AMD’s OpenAI deal drives $10+ EPS. Execution equals $300 stock. What’s the full story? Wolfe sees AMD’s OpenAI deal as a catalyst for a $10+ CY27 EPS trajectory, baked conservatively at $15B annual revenue from OAI and $27B total AI revenue. Execution is the name of the game here; hit those numbers, and a $300 stock price (29x CY27) is in play, with upside if AMD penetrates AI markets beyond OpenAI. Near term, traditional server strength could juice the numbers further. But let’s not ignore the risk: a stock dip below the warrant target would throw a wrench into the OAI incentive structure. Wolfe’s $300 price target hinges on ~29x CY27 EPS of $10.36, a hair above AMD’s 5-year average multiple of 28.1x. In short, AMD’s path to $300 is clear—execute, dominate AI, and don’t trip over your own feet. Nvidia What happened? On Wednesday, HSBC upgraded NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) to Buy with a Street High PT of $320. *TLDR: HSBC upgrades NVIDIA to Buy.FY27 datacenter surges; consensus crushed. What’s the full story? HSBC upgrades NVIDIA to Buy, slamming FY27 GPU TAM higher as datacenter revenue rockets to $351bn—36% above consensus $258bn drivel. The bank pencils $8.75 EPS, trouncing $6.48 estimates, even sans China chip exports amid thawing US-China trade vibes that could unleash Beijing demand pent-up since the crackdown. CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) allocation surges to 700k wafers in FY27 (140% YoY), momentum reigniting post-4Q25 lull via aggressive TSMC forecasts. This juices datacenter beats, cementing AI GPU sprawl beyond CSP capex illusions; bull case hits $390bn revenue and $9.68 EPS on 800k wafers per supply chain whispers. NVIDIA’s silicon empire expands—consensus chumps incoming. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. T-Mobile What happened? On Thursday, Wells Fargo upgraded T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS) to Overweight with a $260 price target. *TLDR: Wells Fargo upgrades. TMUS outpaces AT&T, Verizon on spectrum. What’s the full story? Wells Fargo upgrades TMUS to Overweight with a $260 price target as its valuation premium versus AT&T compresses after a year of drift. EBITDA and free‑cash‑flow‑per‑share accelerate from 2026 onward, delivering roughly 15 % FCF growth between 2025 and 2027, while AT&T and Verizon begin to decelerate. The bank expects TMUS’s post‑paid phone share to stay resilient even if Verizon leans harder on promotions, because under‑penetrated small markets, enterprise and public‑sector customers keep feeding market‑leading adds. After ATT&T’s spectrum purchase—and assuming Verizon secures AWS‑3—TMUS still commands 10‑20 % more sub‑6 GHz spectrum, has upgraded over 85 % of its towers, and enjoys a 10 % site‑count edge, giving it a clear speed‑to‑market and coverage advantage. Its lack of a scaled fiber rollout remains a long‑term watch‑list item but won’t materially dent growth in the near term; sub‑and‑service revenues stay industry‑leading. The bank spots about a 1 % EBITDA upside and a 2 % FCF upside in 2026. It trims AT&T’s estimate to a $29 target, noting that a more aggressive Verizon could shave post‑paid adds, yet consensus expectations appear attainable. AT&T still rides fiber‑mobile convergence and FWA tailwinds, but the $23 B spectrum deal modestly dilutes its FCF and postpones buybacks, nudging The bank’s preference toward TMUS 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Deere What happened? On Friday, UBS upgraded Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) to Buy with a price target of $535. *TLDR: UBS upgrades Deere to Buy, eyeing ’27 rebound. Cycle bottoms; 17% upside ahead. What’s the full story? UBS upgrades Deere (DE) to Buy from Neutral, betting ’26 marks the final earnings trough before a ’27 rebound. Ag fundamentals scrape bottom, with North America >100HP tractor sales idling at 22k units—nearing 2003-04 lows of 17.5k after 20 months into a typical 25-month downcycle. The bank sees limited downside, stock baking in $17.90 trough EPS versus consensus, while eyeing 30% growth in FY27. Commodity prices lurk at inflation-adjusted historical lows, priming upside surprises. Expect large ag retail sales to inflect positive by late ’26 or early ’27, with DE’s P&PA modeled at -4% in ’26 then +13% in ’27 (+5% in F4Q26). Inventory destocking paves production ramps, and US non-res construction reaccelerates in 2H26 to buoy C&F. Near-term, ’26 estimates bake in too much optimism; UBS flags downside as guidance looms in six weeks, shifting gaze to ’27’s 17% share upside. Cycle’s exhaustion nears—time to price the turn. First, check if it's included in one of this month's AI-powered stock strategies for ProPicks AI. Investing.com created these strategies to identify the most exciting trading opportunities currently in the market. The stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years, like ViaSat and Sapiens, both up over 60%+ each in Q2 of 2025 alone. Is T one of them?
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Can MSCI India weight converge with China’s?
Investing.com -- UBS Global Research says the idea that India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index could converge with China’s has become less relevant after recent performance trends. According to the firm’s EM and APAC Equity Strategy team, China has outperformed India by 33% in U.S. dollar terms year to date, reversing the narrative that India’s rapid growth and higher valuations would close the gap. As a result, China’s index weight is now roughly double India’s once again. The report notes that even under optimistic growth assumptions for India, the MSCI China profit pool is expected to remain twice as large as India’s over the next five years. UBS analysts said that the relative economic and corporate profit size continues to favor China, despite India’s stronger representation of its domestic economy within its MSCI index. “MSCI India already represents a larger share of India economy, than MSCI China of China’s,” the brokerage said. Valuations have been the biggest driver of index weight changes in recent years. UBS points out that China’s relative valuation position now looks more favorable than India’s. Historically, the two markets traded at similar price-to-earnings multiples until about three to four years ago, but the divergence has since widened. Currently, China trades at a 33% discount to India. The perception gap is also evident in how investors value similar businesses in each country. UBS said that if a stock with the same sector, growth, and return on equity characteristics were to move from China to India, its market capitalization would instantly be 2.3 times higher. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. The brokerage also flags that while India’s corporate balance sheets have improved and leverage has declined, China continues to show stronger return on invested capital (ROIC) trends, even when excluding its large internet and artificial intelligence companies. Chinese corporates, particularly in the listed space, maintain lower leverage compared with India’s peers. Despite India’s structural growth potential, UBS adds that the probability of MSCI India’s weight converging with China’s in the next five years is low. The outlook also assumes that the inclusion factor for China A-shares remains modest. In UBS’s view, the broader debate on China versus India equity performance continues to hinge on relative valuations, earnings growth, and profitability dynamics. For now, UBS maintains its "overweight" stance on China within the emerging-market universe and keeps India underweight. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 3 out of 4 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 98% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?
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These analysts say the AI spending boom is "not too big." Here’s why.
Investing.com - Recent weeks have been busy for the artificial intelligence industry, with a string of chipmakers and AI-linked groups unveiling deals often worth eyewatering sums. Since the start of September, ChatGPT-maker OpenAI alone has revealed a $300 billion with cloud software titan Oracle, a $100 billion investment from AI-darling Nvidia, and strategic partnerships with Nvidia rivals AMD and Broadcom. Other big-name U.S. tech firms who are shelling out massive amounts of cash on AI, known as hyperscalers, have also highlighted fresh investments in the second half. While the announcements have underpinned hopes that a now multi-year boom in AI has more room to run, fears have begun to spring up around the circular nature of many of these transactions -- many of which would see semiconductor firms effectively backstop their own customers. Some observers have likened the mounting spending promises to the dotcom craze of the late 1990s, a bubble that ultimately burst more than two decades ago. "Announcements of further increases in an already sizable amount of AI capex spending have amplified concerns around the sustainability of AI investment," analysts at Goldman Sachs include Joseph Briggs wrote in a note to clients. But they argued that the anticipated levels of expenditures are sustainable and supported by the "technological backdrop," even though the eventual winners of the AI arms race are less clear. "First, AI applications are boosting productivity when deployed. Second, unlocking these productivity benefits requires significant computational power, especially since models are increasing in size much more quickly than computation and energy costs are falling," the analysts wrote. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. They added that they are not worried about the total amount of AI investment, noting that, as a share of U.S. gross domestic product, AI spending stands at less than 1%. This is smaller than levels of between 2% to 5% in prior large technology cycles, they said. A "solid" broader economy should bolster AI capex, albeit as long as companies anticipate the need to be the first-mover in breakthroughs of the technology and investments in compute capacity lead to the improvement of model performance and, potentially, the emergence of artificial generative intelligence, the analysts said. First, check if it's included in one of this month's AI-powered stock strategies for ProPicks AI. Investing.com created these strategies to identify the most exciting trading opportunities currently in the market. The stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years, like ViaSat and Sapiens, both up over 60%+ each in Q2 of 2025 alone. Is ORCL one of them?
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