5 big analyst AI moves: Nvidia, AMD upgraded; ASML seen on €1,000 path
Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.
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HSBC lifts NVIDIA to Buy, sees fiscal 2027 AI revenue far ahead of consensus
HSBC on Wednesday upgraded NVIDIA to Buy from Hold and raised its target price to $320 from $200, saying there is “room for significant fiscal 2027 (FY27) earnings upside” as AI chip demand expands beyond hyperscale cloud customers.
The bank now expects NVIDIA’s FY27 datacenter revenue to reach $351 billion, which is 36% above consensus. “We upgrade NVIDIA to Buy on the back of increasing FY27e GPU total addressable market (TAM) relative to our previous expectations,” the analysts wrote.
They added that a potential U.S.-China trade agreement could “enable NVIDIA to see a demand recovery in the Chinese market.”
HSBC lifted its FY27 earnings per share estimate to $8.75 versus a consensus forecast of $6.48, noting this does not include any revenue from China exports.
The bank also pointed to “renewed CoWoS wafer allocation momentum” for the first time since late 2025, with FY27 allocation raised to 700,000 wafers from 480,000, implying 140% growth year-on-year.
“Our bull-case scenario suggests potentially $390bn in FY27e datacenter revenue, or an implied FY27e EPS of $9.68,” HSBC said. It also flagged that “recent NVIDIA AI deals imply potential AI GPU revenue opportunity of $251-400bn just from Stargate and OpenAI 18.3GW commitments.”
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"We expect AI GPU TAM to keep increasing beyond hyperscalers, leading to continuous earnings growth," HSBC concluded.
Samsung set for structural earnings growth on AI memory shortage: KB
Samsung Electronics is set for a sustained earnings upswing as the supply of HBM and DRAM remains tight through 2027, KB Securities said, lifting its target price by 18% to 130,000 won and naming the stock its top pick in Korea’s semiconductor sector.
The brokerage expects AI data center investment to surge fivefold by 2030, while meaningful new chip capacity will not come online until the Pyeongtaek P5 line and Yongin cluster begin operations in 2028. In the meantime, Samsung is seen benefiting from robust pricing and expanding margins tied to next-generation memory.
Analyst Jeff Kim said Samsung is “benefiting directly from NVIDIA/OpenAI’s increasing HBM needs,” adding that “1c DRAM yield improvements enable full-scale HBM4 shipments from 2026.”
KB raised its 2026 operating profit forecast by 20% to 64 trillion won, which would mark the highest in eight years.
Samsung reported preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 12.1 trillion won, beating consensus by 19% and marking its strongest quarterly result since the third quarter of 2022.
KB expects fourth-quarter profit of 12.5 trillion won and sees earnings climbing to 64.2 trillion won in 2026 on higher DRAM margins and improved foundry utilization.
The firm expects legacy chip shortages to deepen as Samsung prioritizes Pyeongtaek P4 investments toward HBM4, foundry and NAND from 2026. It forecasts HBM revenue to triple that year, driving a shift “from recovery to structural growth” as the market reaches an inflection point.
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Wolfe lifts AMD rating, target price on strong earnings outlook after OpenAI deal
AMD was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, which set a $300 price target and said the company is now on a “conservative path to $10+ earnings power” by 2027.
The call is anchored in AMD’s multi-year agreement with OpenAI and improving visibility in traditional server demand. Wolfe assumes $15 billion in annual revenue from OpenAI and a total of $27 billion in AI-related sales by 2027, supporting an EPS forecast of $10.36 for that year.
The price target implies roughly 29 times that estimate, slightly above AMD’s five-year average multiple.
AMD currently trades at around 36.5 times its calendar year 2026 (CY26) EPS estimate and about 21 times CY27, compared with its historical forward average of 28.1 times.
Server CPU revenue forecasts were lifted after management said agentic AI demand is pulling forward orders. Wolfe now models $9.55 billion in server CPU revenue for 2025 and $11.4 billion for 2026.
The OpenAI contract is expected to begin contributing in late 2026 with the MI450 ramp, with about $4.5 billion in server GPU revenue projected in the fourth quarter alone and a sharp acceleration into 2027.
Wolfe also pointed to potential additional support in 2027 from Helios and MI450 rack-scale systems and the rollout of native UALink, while noting that execution will be critical and “risk is if the stock were to fall below the warrant target.”
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UBS sees ASML on path to €1,000 as AI cycle drives earnings
ASML shares jumped earlier this week after the chip equipment maker reported third-quarter results ahead of expectations and reaffirmed it will benefit from accelerating AI-related investment. The stock is up around 30% this year, outperforming the market, yet UBS believes there is still room for gains.
The bank reiterated its Buy rating and raised its 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts by 6% to 10%, setting a €1,000 price target. ASML is trading at around 26 times expected 2027 earnings, below its historical average of 29 times, with earnings projected to grow at a 16% compound rate between 2025 and 2030.
“Looking beyond 2027E, we anticipate that High NA adoption could bolster valuation multiples, potentially unlocking additional upside,” analysts led by Francois-Xavier Bouvignies wrote.
The team sees high numerical aperture (NA) extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) tools as a key re-rating catalyst and expects improved visibility after the SPIE conference in February. While no High NA orders were recorded in the latest quarter, analysts say they remain “key to our thesis.”
UBS describes the current setup as a “trajectory toward €1,000/share,” underpinned by AI-driven demand in memory and advanced logic. Management has indicated that 2026 revenue should not fall below 2025 levels, supported by stronger EUV momentum at customers like TSMC and a recovery in DRAM spending.
The bank now forecasts TSMC tool sales to grow in the mid-single digits next year, compared with an earlier forecast for a 5% decline, and sees memory-related revenue rising 25% as DRAM wafer fab equipment investment increases.
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UBS also said the China risk is becoming more manageable, with regional revenues expected to normalise after a period of elevated demand. Total deep ultraviolet lithograpy (DUV) revenue is projected to decline 5% in 2026, but non-China demand is projected to rise 18%, led by advanced logic and memory customers.
Goldman says Salesforce AI push could drive new growth wave
Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating and $385 price target on Salesforce, saying the A-Day update strengthened confidence in its ability to sustain double-digit growth while expanding margins.
Salesforce guided to more than $60 billion in fiscal 2030 revenue under a Rule-of-50 framework, implying roughly 10% annual growth and operating margins of about 40%. Shares were indicated up around 4% after the announcement.
Analyst Kash Rangan said Salesforce can deliver “sustainable double-digit growth driven by product portfolio strength, distribution scale, and AI execution,” while improving profitability.
He added that “AI, valuable business logic and data underpinning 150K+ customers, and deep semantic context can unleash a new growth wave over the next 4-5 years.”
Goldman argues investors are still discounting SaaS incumbents on AI disruption fears rather than recognizing their leverage in data and distribution. New net annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth has re-accelerated toward about 10%, and the company expects to exceed that pace soon.
Salesforce also disclosed $440 million in Agentic AI ARR in fiscal Q2 2026, up 400% year-on-year, which could prompt investors to “re-examine the AI bear case.”
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While flagging uncertainty around timing and adoption of a consumption model, Goldman said Salesforce is better positioned than in prior cycles.
It now sees free cash flow compounding toward $26-28 per share by fiscal 2030, opening scope for a “blue-sky scenario of $700-800” if revenue moves beyond $60 billion toward the $100 billion vision outlined by Marc Benioff.
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