Carl Allen
@realcarlallen.bsky.social
Analyst, Scientist, Misinformation Fighter, Debate Winner, Author
📖 Book: *The Polls Weren't Wrong* out now 👉 https://www.routledge.com/The-Polls-Werent-Wrong/Allen/p/book/9781032483023
📖 Book: *The Polls Weren't Wrong* out now 👉 https://www.routledge.com/The-Polls-Werent-Wrong/Allen/p/book/9781032483023
You know he's in a desperate spot because it's a full year until midterms, so when this doesn't happen, making more desperate promises closer to midterms will make him (somehow) look even weaker.
Remember when he said he would cut electricity prices in half by January?
How we looking?
Remember when he said he would cut electricity prices in half by January?
How we looking?
November 10, 2025 at 7:15 PM
You know he's in a desperate spot because it's a full year until midterms, so when this doesn't happen, making more desperate promises closer to midterms will make him (somehow) look even weaker.
Remember when he said he would cut electricity prices in half by January?
How we looking?
Remember when he said he would cut electricity prices in half by January?
How we looking?
Consensus of analysts around the world:
Polls were wrong about NYC Mayoral Election.
Is that right?
Or do you all detect another possible explanation?
Polls were wrong about NYC Mayoral Election.
Is that right?
Or do you all detect another possible explanation?
November 6, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Consensus of analysts around the world:
Polls were wrong about NYC Mayoral Election.
Is that right?
Or do you all detect another possible explanation?
Polls were wrong about NYC Mayoral Election.
Is that right?
Or do you all detect another possible explanation?
All things considered, it's kind of awesome that Republicans are loudly going on TV talking about how important it is TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT
Remember, these are the people who overwhelmingly support the idea that no government is better
Remember, these are the people who overwhelmingly support the idea that no government is better
November 6, 2025 at 5:21 PM
All things considered, it's kind of awesome that Republicans are loudly going on TV talking about how important it is TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT
Remember, these are the people who overwhelmingly support the idea that no government is better
Remember, these are the people who overwhelmingly support the idea that no government is better
There is a phenomenon that is unique to MAGA.
For most of US history, the political left and right had a love-hate relationship with politicians.
Support the good, oppose the bad, and generally identify with the candidate or party that you tend to support most.
MAGA changed that.
For most of US history, the political left and right had a love-hate relationship with politicians.
Support the good, oppose the bad, and generally identify with the candidate or party that you tend to support most.
MAGA changed that.
November 6, 2025 at 5:07 PM
There is a phenomenon that is unique to MAGA.
For most of US history, the political left and right had a love-hate relationship with politicians.
Support the good, oppose the bad, and generally identify with the candidate or party that you tend to support most.
MAGA changed that.
For most of US history, the political left and right had a love-hate relationship with politicians.
Support the good, oppose the bad, and generally identify with the candidate or party that you tend to support most.
MAGA changed that.
How accurate were the polls?!
Which pollster was the most accurate so I can know which pollster will be most accurate in 2026?!
This same, dumb song and dance has been going on for literally 100 years and they still haven't figured out why it's dumb
👇
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-accura...
Which pollster was the most accurate so I can know which pollster will be most accurate in 2026?!
This same, dumb song and dance has been going on for literally 100 years and they still haven't figured out why it's dumb
👇
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-accura...
How Accurate Were The Polls?!
The same, dumb song and dance we've been doing for 100 years.
realcarlallen.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:05 PM
How accurate were the polls?!
Which pollster was the most accurate so I can know which pollster will be most accurate in 2026?!
This same, dumb song and dance has been going on for literally 100 years and they still haven't figured out why it's dumb
👇
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-accura...
Which pollster was the most accurate so I can know which pollster will be most accurate in 2026?!
This same, dumb song and dance has been going on for literally 100 years and they still haven't figured out why it's dumb
👇
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-accura...
Nate Silver: prediction markets are smart
Carl Allen: Mamdani has a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 20-30 and also a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 24+
👌
Carl Allen: Mamdani has a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 20-30 and also a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 24+
👌
November 4, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Nate Silver: prediction markets are smart
Carl Allen: Mamdani has a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 20-30 and also a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 24+
👌
Carl Allen: Mamdani has a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 20-30 and also a 25% chance of winning by a margin of 24+
👌
An actual, published article that people read to try and understand things, in two sentences:
Wrongly informs people that the "most accurate" poll can be determined by a sample size of one election
Says Silver's "56%" probability for Trump was accurate...(???)
This is just garbage.
Wrongly informs people that the "most accurate" poll can be determined by a sample size of one election
Says Silver's "56%" probability for Trump was accurate...(???)
This is just garbage.
November 4, 2025 at 2:27 PM
An actual, published article that people read to try and understand things, in two sentences:
Wrongly informs people that the "most accurate" poll can be determined by a sample size of one election
Says Silver's "56%" probability for Trump was accurate...(???)
This is just garbage.
Wrongly informs people that the "most accurate" poll can be determined by a sample size of one election
Says Silver's "56%" probability for Trump was accurate...(???)
This is just garbage.
If I hear another Democratic Strategist talking about appealing to the center, mainstream, "reliable voter" I'm going to lose it.
Your hypothesis regarding centrism is wonderful. And Trump just whooped your asses twice with a huge contingent "unreliable" voters.
Keep playing dumb games.
Your hypothesis regarding centrism is wonderful. And Trump just whooped your asses twice with a huge contingent "unreliable" voters.
Keep playing dumb games.
November 3, 2025 at 6:02 PM
If I hear another Democratic Strategist talking about appealing to the center, mainstream, "reliable voter" I'm going to lose it.
Your hypothesis regarding centrism is wonderful. And Trump just whooped your asses twice with a huge contingent "unreliable" voters.
Keep playing dumb games.
Your hypothesis regarding centrism is wonderful. And Trump just whooped your asses twice with a huge contingent "unreliable" voters.
Keep playing dumb games.
When someone asks me what I "do" - it's hard to answer. For work? Nothing, really. For money?
I own a sports fundraising business
Analyze political data
Build models for sports betting
Those might seem different...but the common theme:
I solve complex problems by figuring out what data matters
I own a sports fundraising business
Analyze political data
Build models for sports betting
Those might seem different...but the common theme:
I solve complex problems by figuring out what data matters
November 3, 2025 at 1:13 AM
When someone asks me what I "do" - it's hard to answer. For work? Nothing, really. For money?
I own a sports fundraising business
Analyze political data
Build models for sports betting
Those might seem different...but the common theme:
I solve complex problems by figuring out what data matters
I own a sports fundraising business
Analyze political data
Build models for sports betting
Those might seem different...but the common theme:
I solve complex problems by figuring out what data matters
If someone has a full-time job and receives SNAP
That means your taxpayer dollars are subsidizing the company's profits
That means your taxpayer dollars are subsidizing the company's profits
November 2, 2025 at 11:56 PM
If someone has a full-time job and receives SNAP
That means your taxpayer dollars are subsidizing the company's profits
That means your taxpayer dollars are subsidizing the company's profits
The Carlism of the day
Feel free to use it, scientists and data people of the world:
"It's better to stand corrected than to run stupid."
Feel free to use it, scientists and data people of the world:
"It's better to stand corrected than to run stupid."
November 1, 2025 at 7:53 PM
The Carlism of the day
Feel free to use it, scientists and data people of the world:
"It's better to stand corrected than to run stupid."
Feel free to use it, scientists and data people of the world:
"It's better to stand corrected than to run stupid."
Reminder:
Trump said he would cut electricity bills in half ("Five-O, fifty percent" - he was very specific) by JANUARY
How are we looking? MAGA can't accomplish anything. Make them miserable @housedemocrats.bsky.social @democrats.org - talk about this DAILY!
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump said he would cut electricity bills in half ("Five-O, fifty percent" - he was very specific) by JANUARY
How are we looking? MAGA can't accomplish anything. Make them miserable @housedemocrats.bsky.social @democrats.org - talk about this DAILY!
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
US electricity bills increased by 11% in Trump’s second term, data shows
New analysis prompts letter to Trump from Elizabeth Warren: ‘Your administration has no answers for families hit by high energy costs’
www.theguardian.com
November 1, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Reminder:
Trump said he would cut electricity bills in half ("Five-O, fifty percent" - he was very specific) by JANUARY
How are we looking? MAGA can't accomplish anything. Make them miserable @housedemocrats.bsky.social @democrats.org - talk about this DAILY!
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump said he would cut electricity bills in half ("Five-O, fifty percent" - he was very specific) by JANUARY
How are we looking? MAGA can't accomplish anything. Make them miserable @housedemocrats.bsky.social @democrats.org - talk about this DAILY!
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
When you reduce dimensionality for the sake of simplification, you subject your data to predictable distortions.
There's nothing inherently wrong with using the Mercator projection, but if that projection leads analysts to conclude "Greenland is bigger than Australia because look at the map"
...
There's nothing inherently wrong with using the Mercator projection, but if that projection leads analysts to conclude "Greenland is bigger than Australia because look at the map"
...
October 31, 2025 at 1:46 PM
When you reduce dimensionality for the sake of simplification, you subject your data to predictable distortions.
There's nothing inherently wrong with using the Mercator projection, but if that projection leads analysts to conclude "Greenland is bigger than Australia because look at the map"
...
There's nothing inherently wrong with using the Mercator projection, but if that projection leads analysts to conclude "Greenland is bigger than Australia because look at the map"
...
If the Electoral College happened to give disproportional weight to votes from black people it'd have been gone 100 years ago but since it overvalues the votes of people from white states no one cares...but we aren't ready for that conversation
October 29, 2025 at 3:13 PM
If the Electoral College happened to give disproportional weight to votes from black people it'd have been gone 100 years ago but since it overvalues the votes of people from white states no one cares...but we aren't ready for that conversation
Mamdani remains a sizable favorite in NYC. Forecast available on Substack.
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/nyc-mayora...
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/nyc-mayora...
NYC Mayoral Forecast
One Week Away
realcarlallen.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Mamdani remains a sizable favorite in NYC. Forecast available on Substack.
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/nyc-mayora...
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/nyc-mayora...
Let me give @democrats.org the only line they need to combat the "third term" nonsense AND effectively trigger Trump.
It requires using a phrase that triggers narcissists:
'It's not up to you"
It requires using a phrase that triggers narcissists:
'It's not up to you"
October 28, 2025 at 2:19 AM
Let me give @democrats.org the only line they need to combat the "third term" nonsense AND effectively trigger Trump.
It requires using a phrase that triggers narcissists:
'It's not up to you"
It requires using a phrase that triggers narcissists:
'It's not up to you"
Reposted by Carl Allen
If mass murder is a "political issue" I guess you should decide if you're pro or anti
May 26, 2025 at 2:50 PM
If mass murder is a "political issue" I guess you should decide if you're pro or anti
If Borat can get this level of compromising footage, which he cut off before it went further, imagine what a skilled operative has on Trump.
He thought the reporter was 15.
No AI needed to make MAGA look bad.
He thought the reporter was 15.
No AI needed to make MAGA look bad.
October 21, 2025 at 1:04 PM
If Borat can get this level of compromising footage, which he cut off before it went further, imagine what a skilled operative has on Trump.
He thought the reporter was 15.
No AI needed to make MAGA look bad.
He thought the reporter was 15.
No AI needed to make MAGA look bad.
I have a page where I write about a lot of stuff - stats and politics related
I will also post my forecasts there.
Here is the most recent thing I wrote. Scroll back, and find things you want to learn about. I promise you'll learn something!
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/do-people-...
I will also post my forecasts there.
Here is the most recent thing I wrote. Scroll back, and find things you want to learn about. I promise you'll learn something!
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/do-people-...
Do People Lie to Pollsters?
Probably. Doesn't Matter.
realcarlallen.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 4:41 PM
I have a page where I write about a lot of stuff - stats and politics related
I will also post my forecasts there.
Here is the most recent thing I wrote. Scroll back, and find things you want to learn about. I promise you'll learn something!
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/do-people-...
I will also post my forecasts there.
Here is the most recent thing I wrote. Scroll back, and find things you want to learn about. I promise you'll learn something!
realcarlallen.substack.com/p/do-people-...
Pictured: @vp.govpeeps.us sticking his neck out for Trump
October 19, 2025 at 9:51 PM
Pictured: @vp.govpeeps.us sticking his neck out for Trump
You all are so gullible it's precious 😂
October 19, 2025 at 3:15 PM
You all are so gullible it's precious 😂
Trying to explain the Ideal Poll concept as a teaching tool for learners, to help them understand the Simultaneous Census as the appropriate true value for any poll, to a bunch of people who think they're experts - but believe that polls are predictions of election outcomes
A short thread
👇
A short thread
👇
October 18, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Trying to explain the Ideal Poll concept as a teaching tool for learners, to help them understand the Simultaneous Census as the appropriate true value for any poll, to a bunch of people who think they're experts - but believe that polls are predictions of election outcomes
A short thread
👇
A short thread
👇
Oh yeah, it's all coming together.
An actual response I got from a peer-reviewer on my poll data work
He wrote about one page of comments, a few useful notes, some requests to lighten my tone as it was "unnecessarily contemptuous"
Then closed with this quote:
An actual response I got from a peer-reviewer on my poll data work
He wrote about one page of comments, a few useful notes, some requests to lighten my tone as it was "unnecessarily contemptuous"
Then closed with this quote:
October 18, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Oh yeah, it's all coming together.
An actual response I got from a peer-reviewer on my poll data work
He wrote about one page of comments, a few useful notes, some requests to lighten my tone as it was "unnecessarily contemptuous"
Then closed with this quote:
An actual response I got from a peer-reviewer on my poll data work
He wrote about one page of comments, a few useful notes, some requests to lighten my tone as it was "unnecessarily contemptuous"
Then closed with this quote:
I'm not seeing any Republicans giving "young men" a pass when it comes to offensive Charlie Kirk jokes
Only when it comes to offensive jokes about black people...Jewish people...supporting the H*locaust and H*tler...
Why do you think that is?
Only when it comes to offensive jokes about black people...Jewish people...supporting the H*locaust and H*tler...
Why do you think that is?
October 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
I'm not seeing any Republicans giving "young men" a pass when it comes to offensive Charlie Kirk jokes
Only when it comes to offensive jokes about black people...Jewish people...supporting the H*locaust and H*tler...
Why do you think that is?
Only when it comes to offensive jokes about black people...Jewish people...supporting the H*locaust and H*tler...
Why do you think that is?
Many students (and teachers) believe that the margin of error is an abstract concept, true "in theory"
This is not the case.
It is a testable and provable one.
Statistics are not always intuitive, but when we can, educators must make these lessons tangible
I love doing these kinds of experiments
This is not the case.
It is a testable and provable one.
Statistics are not always intuitive, but when we can, educators must make these lessons tangible
I love doing these kinds of experiments
October 15, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Many students (and teachers) believe that the margin of error is an abstract concept, true "in theory"
This is not the case.
It is a testable and provable one.
Statistics are not always intuitive, but when we can, educators must make these lessons tangible
I love doing these kinds of experiments
This is not the case.
It is a testable and provable one.
Statistics are not always intuitive, but when we can, educators must make these lessons tangible
I love doing these kinds of experiments