Rachel Ziemba
@reziemba.bsky.social
Geo-economics, EM, Energy/Resources. Obsessed by sanctions, sovereign wealth, debt, supply chains, trade. Ziemba Insights CNAS Horizon Engage NYU 🇨🇦 wine economist (dip WSET). NYC mostly, YVR often https://rziemba.substack.com
New OFAC FAQ highlights a point I’ve been making - that “buyers” for Lukoil assets are unlikely to be approved if they transfer funds/compensation to Lukoil/Russia, if ties to Lukoil persist…and other unspecified national security goals.
ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1224
ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1224
1224 | Office of Foreign Assets Control
ofac.treasury.gov
November 19, 2025 at 11:48 PM
New OFAC FAQ highlights a point I’ve been making - that “buyers” for Lukoil assets are unlikely to be approved if they transfer funds/compensation to Lukoil/Russia, if ties to Lukoil persist…and other unspecified national security goals.
ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1224
ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1224
Coordinated US, UK +Australia sanctions on Russia, but related to cybercrime. Includes sanctions on a Russia-based hosting platform, associated sanctions on a previously sanctioned platform. Russian Cyber has been a key sanctions priority under this admin
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
United States, Australia, and United Kingdom Sanction Russian Cybercrime Infrastructure Supporting Ransomware
.caption > figcaption { text-align: center; font-style: italic; } WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Australia’s Department of Foreign Affair...
home.treasury.gov
November 19, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Coordinated US, UK +Australia sanctions on Russia, but related to cybercrime. Includes sanctions on a Russia-based hosting platform, associated sanctions on a previously sanctioned platform. Russian Cyber has been a key sanctions priority under this admin
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Treasury portions of the new US-Saudi partnership agreement including focus on capital market infrastructure, tax sharing and critical mineral financialization.
content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...
content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...
Treasury Announces Financial and Economic Partnership and Capital Markets Sector Collaboration with Saudi Arabia, Welcomes Additional Arrangements to Strengthen the Economic Ties Between Our Two Count...
content.govdelivery.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Treasury portions of the new US-Saudi partnership agreement including focus on capital market infrastructure, tax sharing and critical mineral financialization.
content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...
content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...
Some thoughts on the recent reported holdings of Saudi Arabia’s PIF. Reported holdings became more concentrated in 2025, especially Q3. While PIF is investing more at home as it suplements budget spending also may be the end of directly managed diverse equity portfolio
substack.com/profile/2529...
substack.com/profile/2529...
Rachel Ziemba (@reziemba)
Just in time for what feels like Saudi week in DC, the latest public disclosures of Saudi official holdings of US public equity were released on Friday (as part of the the 13F disclosures of all inves...
substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Some thoughts on the recent reported holdings of Saudi Arabia’s PIF. Reported holdings became more concentrated in 2025, especially Q3. While PIF is investing more at home as it suplements budget spending also may be the end of directly managed diverse equity portfolio
substack.com/profile/2529...
substack.com/profile/2529...
USG giving more time (dec 13) for Lukoil sales transactions and giving a green light to latest European nationalization of Russian owned refinery (this time in Bulgaria). Differentiating between Rosneft and Lukoil. Nov 21 still key for oil trade
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
November 14, 2025 at 7:43 PM
USG giving more time (dec 13) for Lukoil sales transactions and giving a green light to latest European nationalization of Russian owned refinery (this time in Bulgaria). Differentiating between Rosneft and Lukoil. Nov 21 still key for oil trade
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
I think a number of countries might have this concern about some of their “agreements” with the US in a range of domains
“The Saudis were disappointed that many were "left on paper" without much follow-up, a source with knowledge said.”
www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
“The Saudis were disappointed that many were "left on paper" without much follow-up, a source with knowledge said.”
www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
MSN
www.msn.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:20 PM
I think a number of countries might have this concern about some of their “agreements” with the US in a range of domains
“The Saudis were disappointed that many were "left on paper" without much follow-up, a source with knowledge said.”
www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
“The Saudis were disappointed that many were "left on paper" without much follow-up, a source with knowledge said.”
www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
Lots of cabinet level US saudi meetings this week ahead of next weeks Trump MBS sit down- both econ, mil etc. Increases chance of deliverables even if aspirational. Some timing linked to Syria visit and likely desire of regional actors (saudi arabia, turkiye etc to be present
November 11, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Lots of cabinet level US saudi meetings this week ahead of next weeks Trump MBS sit down- both econ, mil etc. Increases chance of deliverables even if aspirational. Some timing linked to Syria visit and likely desire of regional actors (saudi arabia, turkiye etc to be present
Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra.
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Rachel Ziemba on X: "Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra. Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs https://t.co/ojTI6BLB12" / X
Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra. Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs https://t.co/ojTI6BLB12
x.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra.
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses.
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
November 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses.
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
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New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
November 7, 2025 at 10:36 PM
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Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia.
www.state.gov/releases/off...
www.state.gov/releases/off...
U.S.-Hungary Relations Reach New Heights - United States Department of State
Under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, U.S.-Hungary relations continue to reach new heights of cooperation and achievement. This partnership is built on mut...
www.state.gov
November 7, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia.
www.state.gov/releases/off...
www.state.gov/releases/off...
Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia.
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
November 7, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia.
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
Interesting reuters- reliance is looking to re-sell oil snapped up from MENA suppliers as part of hedging and uncertainty around sanctions exposure
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Interesting reuters- reliance is looking to re-sell oil snapped up from MENA suppliers as part of hedging and uncertainty around sanctions exposure
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.
November 5, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.
Ieepa hearing: Odd that USG lawyers are now saying that revenues raised are “incidental” when other USG docs highlighlighted how loss of tariff revenue would sink US economy - tbc I don’t buy that either.
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
Live: Trump Tariffs Challenged Before US Supreme Court
Trump Tariffs: Live News From Supreme Court Hearing
www.bloomberg.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Ieepa hearing: Odd that USG lawyers are now saying that revenues raised are “incidental” when other USG docs highlighlighted how loss of tariff revenue would sink US economy - tbc I don’t buy that either.
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
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I don't know what will happen in NYC tonight, but I do know that regardless of outcome, any number of public figures, celebrities, politicians and institutions that oppose Mamdani have done so with a level of rhetorical ugliness, racism, and dishonesty that should neither be forgotten nor forgiven.
November 5, 2025 at 3:26 AM
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Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
November 5, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
November 5, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival
November 4, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival
I imagine quite a number of other foreign companies who exited Russia JVs will also decide not to excercise their right of return. Their home governments would probably block it plus who knows what additional costs they would be charged.
Mazda has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise the option. Global carmakers sold their assets to Russian firms for symbolic amounts & options to buy them back w/in several years. Mazda is 1st to lose its buyback rights.
Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says
Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I imagine quite a number of other foreign companies who exited Russia JVs will also decide not to excercise their right of return. Their home governments would probably block it plus who knows what additional costs they would be charged.
All signs suggest that Russian fuel exports are falling as buyers assess sanctions risk, framing a 190k drop on a level of over 3.5mbd may overstate the word “plunge”? This kind of weekly move not unprecedented esp with other supplies up.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Russia's Crude Deliveries Plunge as US Sanctions Begin to Bite
The amount of Russian oil held on tankers has risen by 8% since the start of September
www.bloomberg.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:16 PM
All signs suggest that Russian fuel exports are falling as buyers assess sanctions risk, framing a 190k drop on a level of over 3.5mbd may overstate the word “plunge”? This kind of weekly move not unprecedented esp with other supplies up.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
USG seems to have expanded its sanctions relief on Belarusian airlines, by removing Belavia from SDN list + issuing new general license for select planes even if used for lukashenka travel. Maybe related to hostage swaps but has potential to be used more broadly.
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
November 4, 2025 at 3:50 PM
USG seems to have expanded its sanctions relief on Belarusian airlines, by removing Belavia from SDN list + issuing new general license for select planes even if used for lukashenka travel. Maybe related to hostage swaps but has potential to be used more broadly.
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
More detail on the Microsoft AI investments in UAE including its partnerships with G42 and work with ADNOC, including some details about chip licenses for top level chips employment and joint technology development
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
Microsoft’s $15.2 Billion USD Investment in the UAE
Microsoft announced a $15.2 billion USD investment plan in the United Arab Emirates focusing on AI technology, talent development, and building trust between the two nations.
blogs.microsoft.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:43 PM
More detail on the Microsoft AI investments in UAE including its partnerships with G42 and work with ADNOC, including some details about chip licenses for top level chips employment and joint technology development
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
More applications to CPTPP this time including Philippines and UAE, later of which has been actively signing CEPAs to reduce non-tariff barriers, as well as negotiating other FTAs more slowly as part of the GCC.
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
Philippines and UAE apply to join TPP to counter Trump tariffs
Move comes as Japan and other members seek to safeguard trade
asia.nikkei.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:23 PM
More applications to CPTPP this time including Philippines and UAE, later of which has been actively signing CEPAs to reduce non-tariff barriers, as well as negotiating other FTAs more slowly as part of the GCC.
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
November 1, 2025 at 11:06 PM