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Richard Rubin

@richardrubindc.bsky.social

1.4K followers 70 following 110 posts

U.S. Tax Policy Reporter at The Wall Street Journal in Washington. (On Signal richardrubindc.08)

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Reposted by Richard Rubin

Anthony DeBarros @anthonydb.bsky.social · 14h

Tariffs brought in record revenue in fiscal year 2025 for the U.S. government. But how much did that change the overall picture? Five takeaways from @richardrubindc.bsky.social and me today on what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t. www.wsj.com/economy/tari...

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · 15h

except this time it's the blue jays instead of the expos.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · 8d

New from me today: Democratic-backed tax bills introduced since OBBBA enactment have called for expanding some of Trump's "no tax on" policies.

It's a nod to their popularity -- and an attempt to highlight the new law's limits.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Some Democrats Want to Upsize Trump’s New Tax Cuts

Bills try to tap into economic populism and expand breaks for tipped employees, overtime and seniors.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · 10d

If you fall into one of the new law's preferred groups, you can go quite a way up the income scale before you have to pay federal income tax.

We visualized a few examples:

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

How the New Tax Law Can Drive Your Bill to $0

It’s easier for some middle-income Americans to eliminate their tax bills without arcane strategies.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · 28d

That is a very House Guy use of "other office" instead of "higher office."

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Aug 25

New from me today: What tax do billionaires pay?

The corporate tax, which is a crucial component of the US revenue system at the very top of the income distribution, according to a new study.

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

The Tax That Billionaires Actually Pay

Nearly 40% of taxes at the very top come through the corporate income levy, study says.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 31

New from me:

The "no tax on overtime" deduction is big, popular -- and a little messy.

Employers and workers are starting to grapple with the rules for who qualifies and who doesn't.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Who Gets ‘No Tax on Overtime’? It’s Messy.

Employers and workers start grappling with limited scope of new tax deduction

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 30

New from us today: The tax law made five separate changes that will affect incentives for charitable giving.

How will that all shake out?

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Trump Tax Megalaw Upends Charitable Giving

Nonprofits, already under strain, face “mixed bag” from the law’s changes to giving incentives.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 29

New from me:

US exporters -- particularly those with factories and research expenses -- scored a big win in the tax law.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

U.S. Exporters Get Welcome Surprise in Trump Tax Law

Restructured deduction is driving down tax rates for capital-intensive manufacturers of aircraft and other products.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 28

We're doing a live Q-and-A today on the recent WSJ poll, including Americans' dim views of the new tax-and-spending law.

Lob in your questions now:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Live Q&A: Trump, Taxes and Midterms—Ask Your Questions About the WSJ Poll

Join a real-time, written chat with WSJ reporters on Monday, July 28, from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. ET. WSJ subscribers can submit their questions at any time in the comments space below.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 22

IG update: As of May, IRS workforce was down 25% from this year's 103,000 starting point.

Pretty even spread over job types, including a 26% decline in revenue agents (auditors).

Here are all the details:

www.tigta.gov/sites/defaul...

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 21

CBO current policy (CP) score is useful for the pattern. You see expanded tax cuts happen first (deficits up against CP by $597B in 26-29). Those expire and spending cuts come ($936B deficit reduction against CP in 30-34).

Unless Congress extends "no tax on" & cancels spending cuts.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 17

but for a lot of these, it's a state choice about whether to conform. Arizona starts with federal AGI so the legislature can decide whether to allow state-level tips/overtime deductions.

weird that SALT would have that effect given that you can't deduct state taxes from state taxes?

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 17

New from us: The tax law retools Opportunity Zones, trying to push more money into rural areas largely left behind by a program for left-behind areas.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Reshapes Opportunity Zones to Target Trump Country

New tax-and-spending law expands benefits for investments in sparsely populated regions.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jul 15

So post-enactment, the current policy baseline is no longer current policy.

Are we calling it:
--Baseline formerly known as current policy
--The then-current policy baseline
--Prior policy baseline

None of those are particularly fun and/or clear.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 29

First time I think I've gotten Zeus into a budget story.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Declares Tax-Cut Extensions ‘Free’ to Obscure Megabill’s Cost

Senate Republicans are deploying an unprecedented maneuver to continue 2017 tax cuts as budget experts and Democrats cry foul.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 25

FWIW, Sen. Mullin said this week that he didn't view the PTET issue as tied to the SALT discussions with House members that he's been having.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 23

The school-voucher/scholarship tax credit in the GOP tax bill is unlike any other tax break. Our story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The Tax Bill Would Deliver a Big Win for Private Schools—and Investors

School-choice advocates see a ‘revolution within the tax code.’

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 23

All the noise about the SALT cap is around $10k, $30k, or $40k. But there are a ton of dollars in the much messier and more technical debate about cap workarounds for businesses.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Republicans Clamp Down on SALT Workaround for Business Owners

Accountants, dentists and business groups are making a last-ditch effort to get the GOP to back off in President Trump’s megabill.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 18

New from us today: A visual look at how and why the US turned from budget surpluses to deficits over the past quarter-century.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The Path to Record Deficits

A generation ago, the federal budget was briefly in surplus. Now, it appears headed for a record stretch of peacetime deficits. What happened?

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 17

CBO says the House GOP megabill gets more expensive when economic effects are included. Our new story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Megabill Would Increase Deficits Even More After Including Economic Growth, CBO Says

House version of tax and spending proposal would boost GDP, but interest rates would rise, too.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 16

First WSJ take on the Senate tax/health text. More to come:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Senate Trims SALT, Cuts More Medicaid in Proposed Changes to Trump Megabill

Republicans must overcome intraparty divides to get legislation to Trump’s desk by July 4 target.

Reposted by Richard Rubin

Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel.bsky.social · Jun 8

Thanks to @richardrubindc.bsky.social for featuring this work in his recent article on the debate around the macroeconomic impacts of the OBBBA: www.wsj.com/economy/trum...

Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom

A raging debate over policies’ effects on economic growth and deficits is at the core of this summer’s fiscal fight in Congress.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 6

New from me: An interview with CBO Director Phill Swagel, who's bearing the brunt of Republican attacks on the budget scorekeeping agency.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Exclusive | Congress’s Budget Referee Confronts Swarm of GOP Critics

In an interview, Phill Swagel defended the CBO’s forecasting record as Republicans blast the fiscal scorekeeping agency’s assessment of their tax-and-spending megabill.

Richard Rubin @richardrubindc.bsky.social · Jun 4

There's noise about trying to do more spending cuts in the Senate bill. But addressing many of the senators' concerns--Medicaid cuts, IRA phaseouts, tax-cut permanence--require more money to avoid even bigger deficit increases.

My latest on the $$ squeeze in the Senate:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Senators’ Demands Push Megabill Price Tag Up

Stances on Medicaid, clean energy and tax cuts complicate passage of President Trump’s agenda.