Robin Lamboll
@robinlamboll.bsky.social
Climate sciences research fellow at Imperial College London. UK poetry slam champion 2019.
https://linktr.ee/rlamboll
https://linktr.ee/rlamboll
Strong legal ruling from the Dutch courts, obliging the government to strength climate targets and provide climate resilience for the residents of Bonaire!
www.rechtspraak.nl/organisatie-...
www.rechtspraak.nl/organisatie-...
January 28, 2026 at 5:57 PM
Strong legal ruling from the Dutch courts, obliging the government to strength climate targets and provide climate resilience for the residents of Bonaire!
www.rechtspraak.nl/organisatie-...
www.rechtspraak.nl/organisatie-...
Reposted by Robin Lamboll
This is absolutely HUGE news – a court in the Hague has ruled that the Dutch government is failing the people of Bonaire, and must set up a climate adaptation plan for them AND raise its climate targets
Major victory for #ClimateJustice, and for the people of Bonaire
Major victory for #ClimateJustice, and for the people of Bonaire
Historic victory: Dutch court declares climate policy inadequate in Bonaire climate case | Greenpeace Nederland | Voor een groene, leefbare aarde 🌍 - Greenpeace Nederland
The Hague, 28 January 2026
www.greenpeace.org
January 28, 2026 at 3:40 PM
This is absolutely HUGE news – a court in the Hague has ruled that the Dutch government is failing the people of Bonaire, and must set up a climate adaptation plan for them AND raise its climate targets
Major victory for #ClimateJustice, and for the people of Bonaire
Major victory for #ClimateJustice, and for the people of Bonaire
Just a few quotes from the Declaration of Independence
January 26, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Just a few quotes from the Declaration of Independence
I wish little chocolates didn't come individually wrapped. (Not for environmental reasons, just to make it harder to see how many I've eaten.)
December 28, 2025 at 8:24 PM
I wish little chocolates didn't come individually wrapped. (Not for environmental reasons, just to make it harder to see how many I've eaten.)
Reposted by Robin Lamboll
If Ireland's emissions are "too small to matter" then I might as well evade my taxes and eat doughnuts for lunch.
Read my latest column about the laziest excuse in the climate debate:
www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
Read my latest column about the laziest excuse in the climate debate:
www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
‘Too small to matter’ is the laziest-possible excuse in climate debate
At a time of crisis, co-operation is the only way to resolve the climate collective-action problem
www.irishtimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 8:29 AM
If Ireland's emissions are "too small to matter" then I might as well evade my taxes and eat doughnuts for lunch.
Read my latest column about the laziest excuse in the climate debate:
www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
Read my latest column about the laziest excuse in the climate debate:
www.irishtimes.com/environment/...
The text is also relatively good for indigenous rights, including the first acknowledgement of tribes in voluntary isolation. It also featured distinct progress on loss and damages.
November 22, 2025 at 5:34 PM
The text is also relatively good for indigenous rights, including the first acknowledgement of tribes in voluntary isolation. It also featured distinct progress on loss and damages.
Nonetheless, it has provided a few points of light. The reaffirmation of the importance of keeping 1.5C in reach, implicitly even when it may be temporarily exceeded, is good, but relatively toothless. The need for more on how and who would pay for this is essential going forwards.
November 22, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Nonetheless, it has provided a few points of light. The reaffirmation of the importance of keeping 1.5C in reach, implicitly even when it may be temporarily exceeded, is good, but relatively toothless. The need for more on how and who would pay for this is essential going forwards.
This COP has been deeply disappointing. It claimed to be a COP of action, but all comments on fossil fuels, and even most comments on deforestation that this COP was supposed to highlight, have been removed from the final text. Being literally on fire at one point was a fitting metaphor.
November 22, 2025 at 5:34 PM
This COP has been deeply disappointing. It claimed to be a COP of action, but all comments on fossil fuels, and even most comments on deforestation that this COP was supposed to highlight, have been removed from the final text. Being literally on fire at one point was a fitting metaphor.
Kenya have got their text into the loss and damages agreement and it looks unanimous now, so there will be an agreement coming out of COP!
November 21, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Kenya have got their text into the loss and damages agreement and it looks unanimous now, so there will be an agreement coming out of COP!
On Wednesday, I'll be on a panel about climate justice at COP30 in Belem. We'll be talking about indigenous rights, community judgement of COPs and what climate justice looks like - I'll be more on the metrics and less on the social side of these questions!
November 18, 2025 at 12:58 AM
On Wednesday, I'll be on a panel about climate justice at COP30 in Belem. We'll be talking about indigenous rights, community judgement of COPs and what climate justice looks like - I'll be more on the metrics and less on the social side of these questions!
Reposted by Robin Lamboll
Tracking market reactions to COP30 in real-time!
As COP30 unfolds in Brazil (Nov 10-21), our live tracker shows how different stocks respond. Updated daily.
👉 johannesemm.shinyapps.io/HowStocksJud...
Credits: @robinlamboll.bsky.social (Imperial College) & @johannesemm.bsky.social (CMCC)
#COP30
As COP30 unfolds in Brazil (Nov 10-21), our live tracker shows how different stocks respond. Updated daily.
👉 johannesemm.shinyapps.io/HowStocksJud...
Credits: @robinlamboll.bsky.social (Imperial College) & @johannesemm.bsky.social (CMCC)
#COP30
November 13, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Tracking market reactions to COP30 in real-time!
As COP30 unfolds in Brazil (Nov 10-21), our live tracker shows how different stocks respond. Updated daily.
👉 johannesemm.shinyapps.io/HowStocksJud...
Credits: @robinlamboll.bsky.social (Imperial College) & @johannesemm.bsky.social (CMCC)
#COP30
As COP30 unfolds in Brazil (Nov 10-21), our live tracker shows how different stocks respond. Updated daily.
👉 johannesemm.shinyapps.io/HowStocksJud...
Credits: @robinlamboll.bsky.social (Imperial College) & @johannesemm.bsky.social (CMCC)
#COP30
I'll be presenting on including AI effects in energy models at IAMC this Wednesday. Then next Wednesday I'll be in Belém to give a short talk as part of an event on COPs, indigenous activism and climate justice in the Blue Zone GUAC pavilion at 10.30. If you are around, catch me for a chat!
November 11, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I'll be presenting on including AI effects in energy models at IAMC this Wednesday. Then next Wednesday I'll be in Belém to give a short talk as part of an event on COPs, indigenous activism and climate justice in the Blue Zone GUAC pavilion at 10.30. If you are around, catch me for a chat!
Yes, it's pretty undeniable that they've made huge unforced errors (see also the oil decision apnews.com/article/braz...). We will see if the net effect is good or bad in a few weeks time.
Brazil's government greenlights oil drilling near mouth of Amazon River ahead of UN climate summit
Brazil’s government has approved exploratory drilling by state-run oil-giant Petrobras near the mouth of the Amazon River.
apnews.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Yes, it's pretty undeniable that they've made huge unforced errors (see also the oil decision apnews.com/article/braz...). We will see if the net effect is good or bad in a few weeks time.
By this measure, nothing else has made any difference either. But there are more precise metrics that show other stories, e.g. emissions per capita are descending. COPs have been woefully insufficient, but the question we pose here is "are they better than nothing", and the answer is "probably".
November 8, 2025 at 9:38 PM
By this measure, nothing else has made any difference either. But there are more precise metrics that show other stories, e.g. emissions per capita are descending. COPs have been woefully insufficient, but the question we pose here is "are they better than nothing", and the answer is "probably".
These feedbacks are real, however bear in mind that there are also substantial net negative feedbacks, which largely cancel them in our best estimates. There's some uncertainty but even signs of larger than expected feedbacks don't change this picture that much e.g. www.cell.com/one-earth/fu...
Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge
The study highlights the critical role of northern peatlands in amplifying climate
change under overshoot scenarios, that is, when global temperature temporarily exceeds
the targeted level. We simulat...
www.cell.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:19 PM
These feedbacks are real, however bear in mind that there are also substantial net negative feedbacks, which largely cancel them in our best estimates. There's some uncertainty but even signs of larger than expected feedbacks don't change this picture that much e.g. www.cell.com/one-earth/fu...
Modelling global total GHG emissions given (current) NDCs and policy.
November 7, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Modelling global total GHG emissions given (current) NDCs and policy.
No, it's the high, medium and low estimates of current policies and conditional/unconditional NDCs economically modelled to 2035 then extended in a variety of ways.
November 7, 2025 at 1:39 AM
No, it's the high, medium and low estimates of current policies and conditional/unconditional NDCs economically modelled to 2035 then extended in a variety of ways.
We do a lot of other stuff so I've done a longer writeup here: scienceisshiny.wordpress.com/2025/11/06/h... and the main paper is here again: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Thanks to coauthors @setupelz.bsky.social and @dralaaclimate.bsky.social for ushering this through in time!
Thanks to coauthors @setupelz.bsky.social and @dralaaclimate.bsky.social for ushering this through in time!
scienceisshiny.wordpress.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
We do a lot of other stuff so I've done a longer writeup here: scienceisshiny.wordpress.com/2025/11/06/h... and the main paper is here again: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Thanks to coauthors @setupelz.bsky.social and @dralaaclimate.bsky.social for ushering this through in time!
Thanks to coauthors @setupelz.bsky.social and @dralaaclimate.bsky.social for ushering this through in time!
4) If COPs make markets think about the environment, but not about what a sustainable society involves, we expect a premium for companies considered individually green (which we estimate with ESG ratings from Sustainalytics). We see a strong effect here!
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
4) If COPs make markets think about the environment, but not about what a sustainable society involves, we expect a premium for companies considered individually green (which we estimate with ESG ratings from Sustainalytics). We see a strong effect here!
3) If COPs are useless, or entirely predictable, markets shouldn’t notice them. If they’re actively greenwashing, FF stocks should grow. We don’t see these things. Some hope!
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
3) If COPs are useless, or entirely predictable, markets shouldn’t notice them. If they’re actively greenwashing, FF stocks should grow. We don’t see these things. Some hope!
2) If COPs sometimes signal more climate action and sometimes less, we expect market volatility in transition-relevant sectors to rise, but not necessarily changes in the average stock price. We see slightly raised market volatility in general, but not specific to these sectors.
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
2) If COPs sometimes signal more climate action and sometimes less, we expect market volatility in transition-relevant sectors to rise, but not necessarily changes in the average stock price. We see slightly raised market volatility in general, but not specific to these sectors.
While there are many ways we can tackle climate change (varying levels of demand reduction, nuclear power etc.), almost all involve much less FF and more REs. Sadly we see weak signs of FF falls (not robust between different statistical approaches), no sign of RE rising.
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
While there are many ways we can tackle climate change (varying levels of demand reduction, nuclear power etc.), almost all involve much less FF and more REs. Sadly we see weak signs of FF falls (not robust between different statistical approaches), no sign of RE rising.
We considered several possibilities:
1) If governments often show trustworthy signals of higher climate action during COPs, the stock prices of renewable energy (RE) companies should rise and that of fossil fuels (FFs) should fall.
1) If governments often show trustworthy signals of higher climate action during COPs, the stock prices of renewable energy (RE) companies should rise and that of fossil fuels (FFs) should fall.
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
We considered several possibilities:
1) If governments often show trustworthy signals of higher climate action during COPs, the stock prices of renewable energy (RE) companies should rise and that of fossil fuels (FFs) should fall.
1) If governments often show trustworthy signals of higher climate action during COPs, the stock prices of renewable energy (RE) companies should rise and that of fossil fuels (FFs) should fall.
TL;DR: COPs move stocks, but not in the way you might hope. COPs strongly benefit green-rated stocks, but have only mild signs of harming fossil fuels (though getting stronger) and no sign of benefiting renewables (and getting worse).
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
TL;DR: COPs move stocks, but not in the way you might hope. COPs strongly benefit green-rated stocks, but have only mild signs of harming fossil fuels (though getting stronger) and no sign of benefiting renewables (and getting worse).
Do climate conferences actually achieve anything? A lot of people have strong opinions, but we wanted measurements, so we look at how the stock market moves during yearly international meetings called COPs – explanation below, or read the paper here:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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iopscience.iop.org
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Do climate conferences actually achieve anything? A lot of people have strong opinions, but we wanted measurements, so we look at how the stock market moves during yearly international meetings called COPs – explanation below, or read the paper here:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...