Aggressively Pedantic
@robustanalysis.bsky.social
Technically correct is the best kind of correct.
There is essentially a 0% chance that any civilian - including the highest performers, by whatever metric - receives a 5-digit bonus
January 11, 2026 at 7:36 PM
There is essentially a 0% chance that any civilian - including the highest performers, by whatever metric - receives a 5-digit bonus
I'd be shocked if they do anything other than distributing all of the OTS/Special Act budget from the CIVPAY accounts in JAN rather than distributing them over the whole FY. I also suspect they'll pool work units together and issue the bonus to the team so everyone gets what was already allocated.
January 11, 2026 at 7:35 PM
I'd be shocked if they do anything other than distributing all of the OTS/Special Act budget from the CIVPAY accounts in JAN rather than distributing them over the whole FY. I also suspect they'll pool work units together and issue the bonus to the team so everyone gets what was already allocated.
Isn't this the seminal event that ultimately yielded civilian control over the military in our own Constitutional order?
January 11, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Isn't this the seminal event that ultimately yielded civilian control over the military in our own Constitutional order?
"They tried to debunk my whole entire story"stipulates a nonzero probability of the presence of bunk in the story.
NICK SHIRLEY: “They came after me. They came after my family.”
SHAWN RYAN: “How did they come after you? Be specific.”
NICK SHIRLEY: “They tried to debunk my whole entire story.”
SHAWN RYAN: “How did they come after you? Be specific.”
NICK SHIRLEY: “They tried to debunk my whole entire story.”
January 8, 2026 at 11:59 AM
"They tried to debunk my whole entire story"stipulates a nonzero probability of the presence of bunk in the story.
Look, it's not Imperialism if it manifests as our destiny!
January 6, 2026 at 3:20 PM
Look, it's not Imperialism if it manifests as our destiny!
This strikes me as essentially arguing that, if you find yourself in the middle of an ongoing riot, you're actually morally deficient if you *fail* to take part in the looting if you are otherwise capable of doing so.
January 6, 2026 at 2:19 PM
This strikes me as essentially arguing that, if you find yourself in the middle of an ongoing riot, you're actually morally deficient if you *fail* to take part in the looting if you are otherwise capable of doing so.
Calling @sodrock.bsky.social for DMZ meme duty
January 4, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Calling @sodrock.bsky.social for DMZ meme duty
Why is the American government the best government?
Because of our endless appeals system.
Because of our endless appeals system.
January 2, 2026 at 9:48 PM
Why is the American government the best government?
Because of our endless appeals system.
Because of our endless appeals system.
Reminds me of the Jeopardy-like bit on SNL years ago where all the answers were "derived from a survey of American High School Students." One of the categories was "State Capitals" and the " correct" answers were things like "Virginia City"
January 2, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Reminds me of the Jeopardy-like bit on SNL years ago where all the answers were "derived from a survey of American High School Students." One of the categories was "State Capitals" and the " correct" answers were things like "Virginia City"
Yeah this seems pretty straightforward. The scarcity element in performances is the *performers* rather than the *performance spaces.* If I could just as easily play, say, Arena Stage, Ford's Theater, the National, or a host of other sites nearby to the Kennedy Center...why wouldn't I?
December 30, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Yeah this seems pretty straightforward. The scarcity element in performances is the *performers* rather than the *performance spaces.* If I could just as easily play, say, Arena Stage, Ford's Theater, the National, or a host of other sites nearby to the Kennedy Center...why wouldn't I?
It's an even more perfect theory of victory - turns out it's not about the effects; it's about the bombs we drop along the way!
December 29, 2025 at 11:51 PM
It's an even more perfect theory of victory - turns out it's not about the effects; it's about the bombs we drop along the way!
How does any of this square with the post MIDNIGHT HAMMER messaging that the strikes were perfectly destructive and set back Iran's programs by years?
December 29, 2025 at 10:49 PM
How does any of this square with the post MIDNIGHT HAMMER messaging that the strikes were perfectly destructive and set back Iran's programs by years?
This challenge generalizes to most national security interests as well. Policy instruments like the NDS wind up being detached from day-to-day decisions, not least because (ceteris paribus) politicians have incentives to accept absolute risk in "the future" to mitigate apparent risk in the present
December 29, 2025 at 1:16 PM
This challenge generalizes to most national security interests as well. Policy instruments like the NDS wind up being detached from day-to-day decisions, not least because (ceteris paribus) politicians have incentives to accept absolute risk in "the future" to mitigate apparent risk in the present
Random local villagers right now:
a man in a gas station uniform stands in front of a machine that says premium
ALT: a man in a gas station uniform stands in front of a machine that says premium
media.tenor.com
December 27, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Random local villagers right now:
This is what I get for stupidly ignoring the Global South
December 27, 2025 at 2:07 AM
This is what I get for stupidly ignoring the Global South
Yeah, the CHOP piece makes sense to me given that AFRICOM generally doesn't have that many assigned assets.
That said, AFRICOM's AOR is pretty narrowly tailored to the continent, I thought...clearly time to brush up on my UCP geography.
That said, AFRICOM's AOR is pretty narrowly tailored to the continent, I thought...clearly time to brush up on my UCP geography.
December 27, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Yeah, the CHOP piece makes sense to me given that AFRICOM generally doesn't have that many assigned assets.
That said, AFRICOM's AOR is pretty narrowly tailored to the continent, I thought...clearly time to brush up on my UCP geography.
That said, AFRICOM's AOR is pretty narrowly tailored to the continent, I thought...clearly time to brush up on my UCP geography.
Doesn't this fall under the assignment paradigm? IIRC a vessel transiting through a CCMD AOR isn't formally OPCON to the CCDR...
Now, if the vessel (or other asset) is assigned, then it's a different story...one with no incentive to moderate fires since the Title 10 responsibility falls to services
Now, if the vessel (or other asset) is assigned, then it's a different story...one with no incentive to moderate fires since the Title 10 responsibility falls to services
December 26, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Doesn't this fall under the assignment paradigm? IIRC a vessel transiting through a CCMD AOR isn't formally OPCON to the CCDR...
Now, if the vessel (or other asset) is assigned, then it's a different story...one with no incentive to moderate fires since the Title 10 responsibility falls to services
Now, if the vessel (or other asset) is assigned, then it's a different story...one with no incentive to moderate fires since the Title 10 responsibility falls to services
So then you arrive at the question of "to what end." Unless you establish some sort of operational doctrine that leverages whatever the unique characteristics are of this behemoth in some ways inaccessable by the current fleet in being, it's just a novelty item with no apparent value...
December 25, 2025 at 8:03 PM
So then you arrive at the question of "to what end." Unless you establish some sort of operational doctrine that leverages whatever the unique characteristics are of this behemoth in some ways inaccessable by the current fleet in being, it's just a novelty item with no apparent value...
Well also what is the method of employment? Even if it's largely autonomous, it still has to emit a huge amount of both signal and heat energy (the former for navigational purposes, the latter for propulsive ones). It's not going to be invisible!
December 25, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Well also what is the method of employment? Even if it's largely autonomous, it still has to emit a huge amount of both signal and heat energy (the former for navigational purposes, the latter for propulsive ones). It's not going to be invisible!
I'm very popular at parties.
December 25, 2025 at 7:17 PM
I'm very popular at parties.
That's always my thing - the magic beans still have some kind of cost.
December 25, 2025 at 7:17 PM
That's always my thing - the magic beans still have some kind of cost.
Yep I have done exactly that in games I've directed. It can be deflating for The Elect though when you force the commander to set conditions to generate the exquisite effect...
December 25, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Yep I have done exactly that in games I've directed. It can be deflating for The Elect though when you force the commander to set conditions to generate the exquisite effect...
What's really amusing is when you do a wargame and someone induces such an effect to happen but it's desynchronized from the commander's intent because the commander wasn't read into the program...
December 25, 2025 at 6:45 PM
What's really amusing is when you do a wargame and someone induces such an effect to happen but it's desynchronized from the commander's intent because the commander wasn't read into the program...
I buy that in the academic arm of the military. My lived experience is doing operational combat modeling and wargaming to support POM builds (inter alia) only to be told later that it's all invalid because we didn't know about the double secret thing that only the PM and the decision maker know of
December 25, 2025 at 6:44 PM
I buy that in the academic arm of the military. My lived experience is doing operational combat modeling and wargaming to support POM builds (inter alia) only to be told later that it's all invalid because we didn't know about the double secret thing that only the PM and the decision maker know of
But then you ask to be let behind the curtain and they reject your request.
Either you want a serious, comprehensive model of present and future combat to inform requirement development and risk tolerance, or else you don't...
Either you want a serious, comprehensive model of present and future combat to inform requirement development and risk tolerance, or else you don't...
December 25, 2025 at 6:34 PM
But then you ask to be let behind the curtain and they reject your request.
Either you want a serious, comprehensive model of present and future combat to inform requirement development and risk tolerance, or else you don't...
Either you want a serious, comprehensive model of present and future combat to inform requirement development and risk tolerance, or else you don't...