Sam Greene
@samagreene.bsky.social
Professor of Russian Politics, King's College London. Political sociologist. Progressive. Co-author, Putin v the People. 🇬🇧/🇺🇸
Pinned
Sam Greene
@samagreene.bsky.social
· Feb 10
For the avoidance of doubt: The opinions and analysis I express on this platform are my own and do not reflect the positions of any particular institution.
Once more: The incoherence of the Trump administration should not be confused with incapacity. Trump inherited structures of incomparable global power and is unencumbered by calculations of consequence.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
November 7, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Once more: The incoherence of the Trump administration should not be confused with incapacity. Trump inherited structures of incomparable global power and is unencumbered by calculations of consequence.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
This power may dissipate, but the costs in the interim will be immense.
Reupping this article from February — because nothing has changed.
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
This is Europe’s war now
The continent’s future depends on outflanking America. British troops in Ukraine is the first step.
www.newstatesman.com
October 20, 2025 at 6:37 AM
Reupping this article from February — because nothing has changed.
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
Putin is still being allowed to fight at the table for what he can’t win on the ground.
Trump is still pursuing normalisation at the expense of Ukraine.
Europe is still prostrate.
www.newstatesman.com/world/europe...
Looking for a way to shore up a foundering autocratic regime? Try this:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
Trump Administration Authorizes Covert C.I.A. Action in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
October 15, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Looking for a way to shore up a foundering autocratic regime? Try this:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/u...
Get better analysis of the Russian economy than Trump does. Tune into Sasha & Sasha at The Bell.
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
The Bell — A webinar with Alexandra Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr
When Will Russia Run Out of Money?
pro.thebell.io
September 27, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Get better analysis of the Russian economy than Trump does. Tune into Sasha & Sasha at The Bell.
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
The list of countries that have moved to outlaw Soros and the Open Society Foundations is long.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
September 25, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The list of countries that have moved to outlaw Soros and the Open Society Foundations is long.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Remember when the anti-immigrant MAGA base went to war against Elon and Vivek over visas? Looks like they found a compromise. on.ft.com/4nisPq2
Donald Trump plans to raise cost of H-1B foreign worker visa to $100,000
Shares in IT consulting groups drop on news of changes to scheme popular with Silicon Valley
on.ft.com
September 19, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Remember when the anti-immigrant MAGA base went to war against Elon and Vivek over visas? Looks like they found a compromise. on.ft.com/4nisPq2
Hey New York! Come hang out on Thursday at @nyujordancenter.bsky.social!
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
10 Years of Observing US-Russia Relations
Please join the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia and Harriman Institute at Columbia University for the concluding event in the New York-Russia Public Policy series.
harriman.columbia.edu
September 16, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Hey New York! Come hang out on Thursday at @nyujordancenter.bsky.social!
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
In this view of the world, there is no room for people endowed with free will and inalienable rights. There is only room for humanoid furniture, animatronics whose function is to soothe the aesthetic senses of those who believe that true power—even in a republic—is inherited.
August 23, 2025 at 11:45 AM
In this view of the world, there is no room for people endowed with free will and inalienable rights. There is only room for humanoid furniture, animatronics whose function is to soothe the aesthetic senses of those who believe that true power—even in a republic—is inherited.
So, the party of limited government, strict constitutional originalism and free markets is now lining up for federal troops in cities, government-imposed censorship in education and state ownership of major corporations.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
August 23, 2025 at 10:53 AM
So, the party of limited government, strict constitutional originalism and free markets is now lining up for federal troops in cities, government-imposed censorship in education and state ownership of major corporations.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
A genuinely productive negotiating process will be a complicated and protracted one. But if Trump doesn’t have the patience for that kind of process, or if Putin is able to maneuver him into impatience, Europe will have to push back.
/END
/END
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
A genuinely productive negotiating process will be a complicated and protracted one. But if Trump doesn’t have the patience for that kind of process, or if Putin is able to maneuver him into impatience, Europe will have to push back.
/END
/END
The Trump-led process is predicated on the notion that security can be had without accountability. That may be true for America across the ocean, so that is doubtful. If Europeans are to own their own security, however, they will have to draw their own conclusions.
/10
/10
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
The Trump-led process is predicated on the notion that security can be had without accountability. That may be true for America across the ocean, so that is doubtful. If Europeans are to own their own security, however, they will have to draw their own conclusions.
/10
/10
Meanwhile, even as everyone is talking about security guarantees and “land swaps”, note what we’re not talking about: reparations, accountability for war, crimes, and dealing with the fact that Russia is bent on military dominion in its neighborhood.
/9
/9
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Meanwhile, even as everyone is talking about security guarantees and “land swaps”, note what we’re not talking about: reparations, accountability for war, crimes, and dealing with the fact that Russia is bent on military dominion in its neighborhood.
/9
/9
Europe and Ukraine will also need to decide what genuine security looks like. They will not trust assurances from Moscow, and they may be learning that they can’t trust assurances from Washington either.
/8
/8
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Europe and Ukraine will also need to decide what genuine security looks like. They will not trust assurances from Moscow, and they may be learning that they can’t trust assurances from Washington either.
/8
/8
A cease-fire or any other agreement, whether it involves a land swap or not, requires scrupulous attention to detail. In other words, it requires someone other than the current American top team to do the negotiating. But that’s only half the problem.
/7
/7
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
A cease-fire or any other agreement, whether it involves a land swap or not, requires scrupulous attention to detail. In other words, it requires someone other than the current American top team to do the negotiating. But that’s only half the problem.
/7
/7
There is no inherent reason why a cease-fire cannot be reached in Ukraine, and Trump may be even deserves some credit for creating a process that brings that forward. But if Europe wants a cease-fire that delivers genuine security, it may have to run the process from here.
/6
/6
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
There is no inherent reason why a cease-fire cannot be reached in Ukraine, and Trump may be even deserves some credit for creating a process that brings that forward. But if Europe wants a cease-fire that delivers genuine security, it may have to run the process from here.
/6
/6
If Zelenskyy and his European allies all go home and leave the ball in the Trump/Putin side of the court, the best outcome they can hope for is more confusion.
/5
/5
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
If Zelenskyy and his European allies all go home and leave the ball in the Trump/Putin side of the court, the best outcome they can hope for is more confusion.
/5
/5
Trump has once again shown himself to be malleable, putting some kind of security guarantees, and even a return to discussion of a cease-fire back on the table. Who knows what will happen when he gets off the phone with Putin later today.
/4
/4
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Trump has once again shown himself to be malleable, putting some kind of security guarantees, and even a return to discussion of a cease-fire back on the table. Who knows what will happen when he gets off the phone with Putin later today.
/4
/4
The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing.
/3
/3
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing.
/3
/3
First things first: if we’ve learned anything thus far, it’s that we should give it 12-18 hours before drawing conclusions about anything involving Trump and Putin. Not that that will stop anybody.
Thus, my way too early take is that … I’m nervous.
/2
Thus, my way too early take is that … I’m nervous.
/2
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
First things first: if we’ve learned anything thus far, it’s that we should give it 12-18 hours before drawing conclusions about anything involving Trump and Putin. Not that that will stop anybody.
Thus, my way too early take is that … I’m nervous.
/2
Thus, my way too early take is that … I’m nervous.
/2
For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built.
A quick thread
/1
A quick thread
/1
August 18, 2025 at 8:14 PM
For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built.
A quick thread
/1
A quick thread
/1
As we wait: the morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
TL;DRussia Special Edition
18 August 2025: The morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
As we wait: the morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
Looking ahead to tomorrow’s US-Ukraine-Europe meeting in the White House, for @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
What to expect from Zelenskyy's White House visit, ahead of potential peace deal
NPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks to Sam Greene, Professor of Russian Politics at King's College London, about what kind of deal could be reached to end the war in Ukraine.
www.npr.org
August 17, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Looking ahead to tomorrow’s US-Ukraine-Europe meeting in the White House, for @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
Most of us had assumed, I think, that the Anchorage summit ended early because the sides couldn’t agree on much.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
August 16, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Most of us had assumed, I think, that the Anchorage summit ended early because the sides couldn’t agree on much.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europe’s court.
Ok, so this tweet didn’t age well. The piece did, though:
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
As expected, Trump and Putin leave Anchorage adrift. As I wrote Thursday for @cepa.org, the question now is as it has long been: can Europe take charge?
cepa.org/article/unmo...
cepa.org/article/unmo...
Unmoored in Anchorage: Europe’s Dangerous Game
Europe has done everything possible to align itself with the US administration. That has avoided difficult decisions, but comes at a risk.
cepa.org
August 16, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Ok, so this tweet didn’t age well. The piece did, though:
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”
“Reversing this trajectory will require … a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.”