Author | Lightnews

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 20

🔸Is Erdogan testing to see how Europe 🇪🇺will act? EU needs Türkiye 🇹🇷 defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch world’s 3rd largest economy: what will Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺 say?

[END].

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 20

🔸 But, often, politicians make choices for their own short-term political survival and personal-power. Open question: how will Türkiye 🇹🇷 respond: seculars, youths, opposition parties, Istanbulites and business?

. . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 20

🔸US & Türkiye 🇺🇸🇹🇷 also appear to have deep structural differences: Israel 🇮🇱& Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Horn of Africa, Green Energy versus Gas/Oil, Egypt, Caucasus and Central Asia, China 🇨🇳 policy and list goes on.

Continued . . .

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 20

🔸Numerically, Türkiye's 🇹🇷 economy, security and energy is European. This is easily demonstrated in trade, foreign investment, logistic connectivity & energy export market figures. US 🇺🇸🇹🇷 trade is less than 6% and EU 🇪🇺🇹🇷 trade is more than 45%.

. . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 20

🔸Why? No geo-political analyst would say otherwise. All trade figures, infrastructure, CU, electricity grid, supply chains support this.

🔸”If 🇹🇷 choose a security/economic relationship with 🇺🇸 US . . . it would be short-lived gain; it 🇹🇷 would be shooting itself in foot.”

. . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 20

New 🇪🇺🇹🇷 article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis.

Çok teşekkürler / Danke🙏

Topic: İmamoğlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining 🇺🇸🇪🇺👇

🔸”Türkiye's 🇹🇷 natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.”

. . . Continued

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 16

I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.

I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog.

Viva L’Europa! 🙏

#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

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Anonymous @youranoncentral.bsky.social · Mar 16

Thousands of people gathered in Bucharest, Romania to declare their solidarity with Europe and Ukraine, and to reject Russia and Trump's attempts to corrupt their democracy. #3E #RomaniaProtests

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 16

I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.

I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog.

Viva L’Europa! 🙏

#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 10

#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇

Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇

cf2r.org/actualite/quel…

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Feb 23

. . .

Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.

Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.

Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Feb 23

. . .

Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europe’s leading powers.

Only time will tell.

What remains certain: 🇫🇷 popular misconceptions about 🇹🇷 and 🇫🇷 should be relegated to the past.

. . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Feb 23

. . .

Complex points of contention 🇫🇷🇹🇷👇

🔸Africa influence
🔸Caucasus & Central Asia
🔸Customs Union & EIB
🔸Security, Space & Defence
🔸Strategic Autonomy
🔸Eastern Mediterranean
🔸Cyprus territorial integrity
🔸Greek maritime
🔸Nuclear Plants
🔸Theology & Laicite
🔸Syria
🔸Migration

. . . (Continued)

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Feb 23

. . .

@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoğan’s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.

@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.

. . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Feb 23

The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement.

The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.

. . . (Continued)

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Jan 19

No Elon Musk.

Europe does not need American 🇺🇸 and Russian 🇷🇺 foreign interference to make “Europe Great Again”.

Europe needs👇
🔸 EU Unity 🇪🇺
🔸 EU Defence 🚀
🔸 EU Bonds 💶
🔸 EU Nuclear ☢️
🔸 EU Technology & Social Media👨‍🔬

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 5

#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️

🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏

Main points of Op-Ed 👇

🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦

🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington?

. . . Continued

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 5

. . . Continued

🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷

🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture

Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-…

[END].

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 10

#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇

Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇

cf2r.org/actualite/quel…

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Diego Cupolo @diegocupolo.bsky.social · Feb 25

“The general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation. That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it," said @samueljsdv.bsky.social.

My latest for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social:

Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · Feb 24

As doubts grow over US defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, Ankara’s role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities.

@diegocupolo.bsky.social reports with comments by @samueljsdv.bsky.social, Daria Isachenko and @yoruk.bsky.social.

US policy shift on Ukraine boosts Turkey’s value as EU defense partner

ANKARA — On the third anniversary of the Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov is in Turkey and the prospects for peace talks are in limbo amid the Trump administration’s o...

www.turkeyrecap.com

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · Feb 24

As doubts grow over US defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, Ankara’s role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities.

@diegocupolo.bsky.social reports with comments by @samueljsdv.bsky.social, Daria Isachenko and @yoruk.bsky.social.

US policy shift on Ukraine boosts Turkey’s value as EU defense partner

ANKARA — On the third anniversary of the Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov is in Turkey and the prospects for peace talks are in limbo amid the Trump administration’s o...

www.turkeyrecap.com

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 5

. . . Continued

🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷

🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture

Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-…

[END].

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Mar 5

#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️

🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏

Main points of Op-Ed 👇

🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦

🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington?

. . . Continued

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Reposted by Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Jan 12

🎇 @Turkeyrecap.bsky.social Editor @DiegoCupolo.bsky.social kindly asked me to predict EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 in 2025 🎇

5-points👇⤵️

1️⃣ #EU-#Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations in 2025 are fragile and very dependent on 🇺🇸 Donald Trump.

. . . 👇

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Samuel Doveri Vesterbye @samueljsdv.bsky.social · Feb 23

. . .

Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.

Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.

Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...

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