Not an energy or ME expert, but trying to rule out any blindspots. Same as you, I am also interested in separating hype from reality and even wrote an essay about it: medium.com/@saurabh.dub...

Also, your speaking style reminds me of Will Buxton - ex F1 and the current IndyCar commentator. :)

Agree in the US context. I wonder if the same constraints and assumptions would hold true (may be they would) in the Middle East, where tons of natural gas generators could power data centers in desert, for a short-term, without land or environmental constraints, using cheap migrant labor?

Your analysis focuses heavily on expectations in US. What would be the impact on your analysis IF, hypothetically, much of the data center expansion is happening or expected in the Middle East, where govt can fast track construction thru direct mandate and make cheap power available at short notice?