@sbmintelligence.bsky.social
A sobering forecast for 🌍#Africa in 2026. Our new report warns of converging 🗳️political, 💸economic, 🔐security & ⛈️climate risks.
Preparedness will be key.
A must-read for those engaged on the continent.
#Risk #Security #Economy #Climate #TYA2026
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-year-a...
Preparedness will be key.
A must-read for those engaged on the continent.
#Risk #Security #Economy #Climate #TYA2026
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-year-a...
The Year Ahead – At an inflexion point
We foresee a volatile 2026 for Africa, where converging political, security, economic and climate risks will severely test governments and stability.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 11:01 AM
📢Podcast: In 2025, 🌍#Africa stood at a crossroads: ECOWAS ruptured, crises raged from 🇸🇩#Sudan to 🇨🇩#DRC, and youth demanded change.
As pivotal 2026 elections loom, can the continent forge unity, or will fractures deepen?
open.spotify.com/episode/6Qtw...
As pivotal 2026 elections loom, can the continent forge unity, or will fractures deepen?
open.spotify.com/episode/6Qtw...
At an inflexion point
open.spotify.com
December 19, 2025 at 8:52 AM
📢Podcast: In 2025, 🌍#Africa stood at a crossroads: ECOWAS ruptured, crises raged from 🇸🇩#Sudan to 🇨🇩#DRC, and youth demanded change.
As pivotal 2026 elections loom, can the continent forge unity, or will fractures deepen?
open.spotify.com/episode/6Qtw...
As pivotal 2026 elections loom, can the continent forge unity, or will fractures deepen?
open.spotify.com/episode/6Qtw...
From 💹tax pacts to axed 🛫airfare levies, West Africa is pushing economic modernisation.
Yet new hurdles, ™️trade tensions, 🧳travel bans and debt loom at every border.
One step forward, another challenge waiting.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
Yet new hurdles, ™️trade tensions, 🧳travel bans and debt loom at every border.
One step forward, another challenge waiting.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
The week ahead - New hurdles
West Africa's week saw tax deals, cheaper flights, and lower inflation, yet faced trade spats, travel bans, and mounting debt—progress paired with fresh obstacles.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 8:07 AM
From 💹tax pacts to axed 🛫airfare levies, West Africa is pushing economic modernisation.
Yet new hurdles, ™️trade tensions, 🧳travel bans and debt loom at every border.
One step forward, another challenge waiting.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
Yet new hurdles, ™️trade tensions, 🧳travel bans and debt loom at every border.
One step forward, another challenge waiting.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
A 🇺🇸#US-brokered deal between 🇨🇩#DRC and 🇷🇼#Rwanda was declared a breakthrough.
Hours later, fighting shattered the truce, revealing a pact built on economic interests, not peace.
It failed to address the core, bloody grievances driving the conflict.
Hours later, fighting shattered the truce, revealing a pact built on economic interests, not peace.
It failed to address the core, bloody grievances driving the conflict.
Peace deal inks just as fighting links
A US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda is immediately undermined by renewed fighting and accusations of broken commitments.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 7:18 AM
A 🇺🇸#US-brokered deal between 🇨🇩#DRC and 🇷🇼#Rwanda was declared a breakthrough.
Hours later, fighting shattered the truce, revealing a pact built on economic interests, not peace.
It failed to address the core, bloody grievances driving the conflict.
Hours later, fighting shattered the truce, revealing a pact built on economic interests, not peace.
It failed to address the core, bloody grievances driving the conflict.
What are the economic and political implications of the Supreme Court of #Nigeria’s decision on the Rivers State emergency?
The Supreme Court and Nigeria’s growing governance risk
The economic and political implications of the Supreme Court’s decision on the Rivers State emergency.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 6:25 AM
What are the economic and political implications of the Supreme Court of #Nigeria’s decision on the Rivers State emergency?
Scorecard – assessing our 2025 forecast
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/scorecard-...
The 2026 forecast will be published on Friday, 19 December.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/scorecard-...
The 2026 forecast will be published on Friday, 19 December.
Scorecard – assessing our 2025 forecast
The 2026 forecast will be published on Friday, 19 December.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Scorecard – assessing our 2025 forecast
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/scorecard-...
The 2026 forecast will be published on Friday, 19 December.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/scorecard-...
The 2026 forecast will be published on Friday, 19 December.
#Africa Watch: ECOWAS forces swiftly crushed a coup in 🇧🇯#Benin.
Lesson: Rapid action works.
Deeper lesson: Patrice Talon's democratic backsliding created the conditions for revolt.
Stopping coups means fixing the politics that cause them.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/tv-hosting...
Lesson: Rapid action works.
Deeper lesson: Patrice Talon's democratic backsliding created the conditions for revolt.
Stopping coups means fixing the politics that cause them.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/tv-hosting...
TV hosting gets a little too hostile
Benin foiled a coup attempt with arrests, prompting Nigerian military support. A separate airspace dispute with Sahel states increased regional tensions.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 8:20 AM
#Africa Watch: ECOWAS forces swiftly crushed a coup in 🇧🇯#Benin.
Lesson: Rapid action works.
Deeper lesson: Patrice Talon's democratic backsliding created the conditions for revolt.
Stopping coups means fixing the politics that cause them.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/tv-hosting...
Lesson: Rapid action works.
Deeper lesson: Patrice Talon's democratic backsliding created the conditions for revolt.
Stopping coups means fixing the politics that cause them.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/tv-hosting...
#Africa's week: coups🪖, cash💸, and crumbling deals.
🇳🇬#Nigeria fiddles with budgets and gas debts while the region burns.
A 🇺🇸#US-brokered mineral peace pact in 🇨🇩#DRCongo lasts roughly as long as a laptop battery🪫.
So it goes...
🇳🇬#Nigeria fiddles with budgets and gas debts while the region burns.
A 🇺🇸#US-brokered mineral peace pact in 🇨🇩#DRCongo lasts roughly as long as a laptop battery🪫.
So it goes...
The week ahead - Finding a working power socket
Regional instability in West Africa contrasts with Nigeria's domestic economic measures, while international peace efforts falter against enduring conflict.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 9:37 AM
#Africa's week: coups🪖, cash💸, and crumbling deals.
🇳🇬#Nigeria fiddles with budgets and gas debts while the region burns.
A 🇺🇸#US-brokered mineral peace pact in 🇨🇩#DRCongo lasts roughly as long as a laptop battery🪫.
So it goes...
🇳🇬#Nigeria fiddles with budgets and gas debts while the region burns.
A 🇺🇸#US-brokered mineral peace pact in 🇨🇩#DRCongo lasts roughly as long as a laptop battery🪫.
So it goes...
Chart of the week: Northern #Nigeria's education crisis
December 11, 2025 at 5:20 AM
Chart of the week: Northern #Nigeria's education crisis
#Africa Watch
Cyril Ramaphosa rejects Donald Trump's threat to exclude 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica from next year's G20, which will be held in 🇺🇸 #America, as economic growth in RSA slows.
Cyril Ramaphosa rejects Donald Trump's threat to exclude 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica from next year's G20, which will be held in 🇺🇸 #America, as economic growth in RSA slows.
Ramaphosa shrugs off Trump's temper tantrum
President Ramaphosa rejects Donald Trump's threat to exclude South Africa from the G20, labelling it misinformation, as economic growth slows.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:32 AM
#Africa Watch
Cyril Ramaphosa rejects Donald Trump's threat to exclude 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica from next year's G20, which will be held in 🇺🇸 #America, as economic growth in RSA slows.
Cyril Ramaphosa rejects Donald Trump's threat to exclude 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica from next year's G20, which will be held in 🇺🇸 #America, as economic growth in RSA slows.
MTN Nigeria's 2025 recovery has been good for #Nigeria's economy as it has driven massive network investment & fintech growth. A case of balancing strong profits with nationwide social impact.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/two-decade...
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/two-decade...
Over two decades of infrastructure, investment, and impact
MTN Nigeria's 2025 financial turnaround is significant and fuels major infrastructure and fintech growth, amidst sector challenges and expanding social impact.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:48 AM
MTN Nigeria's 2025 recovery has been good for #Nigeria's economy as it has driven massive network investment & fintech growth. A case of balancing strong profits with nationwide social impact.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/two-decade...
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/two-decade...
#Africa Watch:
🎖️A military coup in 🇬🇼 #GuineaBissau has deposed the president, installed a transitional leader, and drawn regional condemnation after halting election results.
But what does it really mean for democracy in the region?
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/new-sherif...
🎖️A military coup in 🇬🇼 #GuineaBissau has deposed the president, installed a transitional leader, and drawn regional condemnation after halting election results.
But what does it really mean for democracy in the region?
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/new-sherif...
New sheriff in Bissau after musical chairs coup
A military coup in Guinea-Bissau has deposed the president, installed a transitional leader, and drawn regional condemnation after halting election results.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 8, 2025 at 7:27 AM
#Africa Watch:
🎖️A military coup in 🇬🇼 #GuineaBissau has deposed the president, installed a transitional leader, and drawn regional condemnation after halting election results.
But what does it really mean for democracy in the region?
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/new-sherif...
🎖️A military coup in 🇬🇼 #GuineaBissau has deposed the president, installed a transitional leader, and drawn regional condemnation after halting election results.
But what does it really mean for democracy in the region?
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/new-sherif...
From 🇳🇬 #Nigeria’s reforms to 🇬🇭 #Ghana’s cuts, 🇬🇼 #GuineaBissau’s coup🎖️ to 🇨🇮 #IvoryCoast’s fish budget—West Africa is a whirlwind.
Meanwhile, 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica shrugs off Donald Trump.
A dizzying week where only the fish get a clear win.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
Meanwhile, 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica shrugs off Donald Trump.
A dizzying week where only the fish get a clear win.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 5, 2025 at 7:55 AM
From 🇳🇬 #Nigeria’s reforms to 🇬🇭 #Ghana’s cuts, 🇬🇼 #GuineaBissau’s coup🎖️ to 🇨🇮 #IvoryCoast’s fish budget—West Africa is a whirlwind.
Meanwhile, 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica shrugs off Donald Trump.
A dizzying week where only the fish get a clear win.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
Meanwhile, 🇿🇦 #SouthAfrica shrugs off Donald Trump.
A dizzying week where only the fish get a clear win.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
The 🇪🇺 EU and 🇿🇦#SouthAfrica have signed a critical minerals deal, alongside a €2 billion investment in African renewable 🔋energy projects.
Europe looks south to process its green guilt
The EU and South Africa have signed a critical-minerals deal, alongside a €2 billion investment for African renewable energy projects.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 2, 2025 at 7:08 AM
The 🇪🇺 EU and 🇿🇦#SouthAfrica have signed a critical minerals deal, alongside a €2 billion investment in African renewable 🔋energy projects.
The 2025 @sbmintelligence #ACIRI
🌍#Africa's instability risk rises, with political fragility and security threats outweighing economic gains across most regions.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-2025-a...
🌍#Africa's instability risk rises, with political fragility and security threats outweighing economic gains across most regions.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-2025-a...
The 2025 Africa Country Instability Risk Index
Africa's instability risk rises, with political fragility and security threats outweighing economic gains across most regions.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
December 1, 2025 at 7:04 AM
The 2025 @sbmintelligence #ACIRI
🌍#Africa's instability risk rises, with political fragility and security threats outweighing economic gains across most regions.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-2025-a...
🌍#Africa's instability risk rises, with political fragility and security threats outweighing economic gains across most regions.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-2025-a...
🇪🇺#Europe invests in 🇿🇦#SouthAfrica while 🇬🇭#Ghana eases rates, but 🇳🇬#Nigeria's credit crunch and rampant insecurity threaten the region's economic and social stability.
The week ahead - Crunches hinder growth spurt
Europe invests in South Africa and Ghana eases, but Nigeria's credit crunch and rampant insecurity threaten the region's economic and social stability.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:09 AM
🇪🇺#Europe invests in 🇿🇦#SouthAfrica while 🇬🇭#Ghana eases rates, but 🇳🇬#Nigeria's credit crunch and rampant insecurity threaten the region's economic and social stability.
Gangster's paradise
Evolving from university cults, #Nigeria's youth gangs have killed over 1,600 people since 2020, primarily in southern states.
Evolving from university cults, #Nigeria's youth gangs have killed over 1,600 people since 2020, primarily in southern states.
November 27, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Gangster's paradise
Evolving from university cults, #Nigeria's youth gangs have killed over 1,600 people since 2020, primarily in southern states.
Evolving from university cults, #Nigeria's youth gangs have killed over 1,600 people since 2020, primarily in southern states.
Chart of the week: The multi-trillion naira burden
November 25, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Chart of the week: The multi-trillion naira burden
Bamako under siege: JNIM's stranglehold on the Sahel
YouTube video by SBM Intelligence
youtu.be
November 24, 2025 at 9:56 AM
From courtroom to combat zone, a week of stark contrasts:
#Nigeria reels from brutal attacks but sees economic hope, #Ghana inaugurates a top judge, and #IvoryCoast balances investor confidence with a mounting regional security crisis.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#Nigeria reels from brutal attacks but sees economic hope, #Ghana inaugurates a top judge, and #IvoryCoast balances investor confidence with a mounting regional security crisis.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
The Week Ahead - A devastating downgrade
West Africa faces a stark contrast: its economies show promising signs of growth while its security situation deteriorates with devastating violence.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:58 AM
From courtroom to combat zone, a week of stark contrasts:
#Nigeria reels from brutal attacks but sees economic hope, #Ghana inaugurates a top judge, and #IvoryCoast balances investor confidence with a mounting regional security crisis.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
#Nigeria reels from brutal attacks but sees economic hope, #Ghana inaugurates a top judge, and #IvoryCoast balances investor confidence with a mounting regional security crisis.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-week-a...
Since 2019, 1,007 lives have been lost in ambushes mounted by militants against 🇳🇬 #Nigeria's security forces.
Insurgents & bandits are outmanoeuvring troops in NE/NW Nigeria, exploiting weak spots with evolving tactics.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-kill-z...
Insurgents & bandits are outmanoeuvring troops in NE/NW Nigeria, exploiting weak spots with evolving tactics.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-kill-z...
November 20, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Since 2019, 1,007 lives have been lost in ambushes mounted by militants against 🇳🇬 #Nigeria's security forces.
Insurgents & bandits are outmanoeuvring troops in NE/NW Nigeria, exploiting weak spots with evolving tactics.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-kill-z...
Insurgents & bandits are outmanoeuvring troops in NE/NW Nigeria, exploiting weak spots with evolving tactics.
sbmintelligence.substack.com/p/the-kill-z...
#Africa Watch: 🇳🇪#Niger’s Abdourahamane Tchiani states the border with 🇧🇯#Benin will remain closed, accusing Benin of hosting 🇫🇷French troops and financing terrorism.
Benin denies the claims.
Since the 2023 coup, the closure has disrupted trade.
Benin denies the claims.
Since the 2023 coup, the closure has disrupted trade.
Niger keeps border with Benin shut
Niger’s junta leader insists the border with Benin will stay closed, accusing its neighbour of hosting terrorists and betraying Nigerien aspirations.
sbmintelligence.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 7:41 AM
#Africa Watch: 🇳🇪#Niger’s Abdourahamane Tchiani states the border with 🇧🇯#Benin will remain closed, accusing Benin of hosting 🇫🇷French troops and financing terrorism.
Benin denies the claims.
Since the 2023 coup, the closure has disrupted trade.
Benin denies the claims.
Since the 2023 coup, the closure has disrupted trade.