AL
@scctrader.bsky.social
Macro trading of global markets. Former investment banker, hedge fund CIO. The ideas are mine, form your own.
GFC most commonly refers to the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009), a severe worldwide recession triggered by the US housing market collapse, causing banking failures and massive job losses.“
Even AI knows that the G stands for.
Even AI knows that the G stands for.
Great financial crisis? You mean when the housing market collapsed, banks went under, our GDP sank, the working class lost trillions in net worth and unemployment soared?
Seems like a repeat of the last time we tried to bully the world with isolationist tariffs.
Not good.
Seems like a repeat of the last time we tried to bully the world with isolationist tariffs.
Not good.
December 11, 2025 at 2:26 AM
GFC most commonly refers to the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009), a severe worldwide recession triggered by the US housing market collapse, causing banking failures and massive job losses.“
Even AI knows that the G stands for.
Even AI knows that the G stands for.
How long do they debate that sentence?
Powell: "Inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs."
December 11, 2025 at 2:21 AM
How long do they debate that sentence?
Lowering taxes but hiking tariffs was supposed to shift the revenue collection to foreign producers. This wasn’t the case as it was another tax on American consumers.
Giving those consumers $2k in refund doesn’t take into account that the US is running an enormous deficit. Trump failed accounting
Giving those consumers $2k in refund doesn’t take into account that the US is running an enormous deficit. Trump failed accounting
November 12, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Lowering taxes but hiking tariffs was supposed to shift the revenue collection to foreign producers. This wasn’t the case as it was another tax on American consumers.
Giving those consumers $2k in refund doesn’t take into account that the US is running an enormous deficit. Trump failed accounting
Giving those consumers $2k in refund doesn’t take into account that the US is running an enormous deficit. Trump failed accounting
Waiting to see the details of the Minerals deal signed by Albanese government. The fact that we have assured them that we are buying their submarines and selling them rare earths in return for continuing to suffer under his tariffs is ridiculous. He should have gone in with Australia first policies
October 21, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Waiting to see the details of the Minerals deal signed by Albanese government. The fact that we have assured them that we are buying their submarines and selling them rare earths in return for continuing to suffer under his tariffs is ridiculous. He should have gone in with Australia first policies
The US is giving $20 bio to Argentina. They expect another $20 bio from private sources like sovereign wealth and private banks. This is ludicrous as the Argentinians have often defaulted on foreign debt. Four times since 1980. Why would those custodians put funds at risk? The returns are not there
October 16, 2025 at 5:33 AM
The US is giving $20 bio to Argentina. They expect another $20 bio from private sources like sovereign wealth and private banks. This is ludicrous as the Argentinians have often defaulted on foreign debt. Four times since 1980. Why would those custodians put funds at risk? The returns are not there
I expect that Tylenol will look to sue Trump et al for the comments linking their product to autism.Tylenol maker Kenvue said it “strongly disagrees” that acetaminophen causes autism and said it is “deeply concerned about the health risks and confusion this poses for expecting mothers and parents.”
September 23, 2025 at 2:47 AM
I expect that Tylenol will look to sue Trump et al for the comments linking their product to autism.Tylenol maker Kenvue said it “strongly disagrees” that acetaminophen causes autism and said it is “deeply concerned about the health risks and confusion this poses for expecting mothers and parents.”
Millei really is the blueprint for the USA. His economic policies have had a radical effect on the nation. Recent elections have not supported his efforts.
September 19, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Millei really is the blueprint for the USA. His economic policies have had a radical effect on the nation. Recent elections have not supported his efforts.
For the year 2024, the total value of U.S. imports of goods and services was $4.136 trillion. This was the whole year. So, he wasn’t in office in January, the tariffs came in to play after liberation day on April 2. So, in five months he has collected 200% of the import value. Nothing to see here?
The White House posts that the US has now taken in $8 Trillion in tariff revenue so far. Preposterous insane lies on an hourly basis.
September 3, 2025 at 3:04 AM
For the year 2024, the total value of U.S. imports of goods and services was $4.136 trillion. This was the whole year. So, he wasn’t in office in January, the tariffs came in to play after liberation day on April 2. So, in five months he has collected 200% of the import value. Nothing to see here?
Tariffs will be inflationary in the USA but not elsewhere. We are already seeing discounting by Chinese firms here. Most other central banks will be watching with interest to growth numbers to see if rates need to be lowered in order to stimulate the economy to make up for lost exports to the USA.
BOJ Deputy Governor Himino Says If U.S. Tariffs Do Not Affect Japan’s Economy, It Would Support Raising Interest Rates 🇯🇵💴
September 2, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Tariffs will be inflationary in the USA but not elsewhere. We are already seeing discounting by Chinese firms here. Most other central banks will be watching with interest to growth numbers to see if rates need to be lowered in order to stimulate the economy to make up for lost exports to the USA.
The equity market could cheer the moves by Trump to seek lower rates. This would benefit borrowers. Trump needs to fund a huge deficit. Inflation helps assets but punishes borrowers through higher funding rates. The bond market participants are who to watch if the inflation vigilantes prevail.
My new Politico Op Ed is live! Will send it out to my email list after I pick up lunch.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Opinion | Why Markets Aren’t Freaking Out Over Trump’s Attack on the Fed
And why that’s a big mistake.
www.politico.com
August 26, 2025 at 9:47 PM
The equity market could cheer the moves by Trump to seek lower rates. This would benefit borrowers. Trump needs to fund a huge deficit. Inflation helps assets but punishes borrowers through higher funding rates. The bond market participants are who to watch if the inflation vigilantes prevail.
Reposted by AL
President Trump made false and misleading claims about crime in Washington, D.C., during a news conference on Monday as he announced that the administration would take federal control of the police. Here’s a fact-check. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
August 14, 2025 at 12:17 AM
President Trump made false and misleading claims about crime in Washington, D.C., during a news conference on Monday as he announced that the administration would take federal control of the police. Here’s a fact-check. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Unbelievable. Who is safe in this administration? How can someone think that you can dismantle the economy and maintain the employment numbers?
Wait until he sees the inflation numbers. Is Powell updating his resume?
Wait until he sees the inflation numbers. Is Powell updating his resume?
BREAKING: President Trump fires the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics hours after weak jobs report.
Trump fires labor statistics boss hours after weak jobs report
The president implied that the BLS commissioner, long-time federal employee Erika McEntarfer, manipulated the data "for political purposes."
nbcnews.to
August 1, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Unbelievable. Who is safe in this administration? How can someone think that you can dismantle the economy and maintain the employment numbers?
Wait until he sees the inflation numbers. Is Powell updating his resume?
Wait until he sees the inflation numbers. Is Powell updating his resume?
Firstly the Japanese say yes many times. Many of those responses mean no. Secondly, they are price sensitive so looking at the graph below we can see US oil is not cheap by global standards and the cost to get it there is prohibitive. But DJT always wants to declare a victory.
June 30, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Firstly the Japanese say yes many times. Many of those responses mean no. Secondly, they are price sensitive so looking at the graph below we can see US oil is not cheap by global standards and the cost to get it there is prohibitive. But DJT always wants to declare a victory.
Trump has always been a borrower. The worry in the economy is due to haphazard policies of the government. The article says that if things turn negative, they could raise them later… by negative they must mean inflation rising because if it was due to growth slowing rates would need to go down.
Trump says US interest rates should be at least two to three points lower reut.rs/3ZMVx8B
Trump says US interest rates should be at least two to three points lower
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said interest rates should be at least two to three points lower and the U.S. Federal Reserve could increase them later if things turned negative.
reut.rs
June 24, 2025 at 6:10 AM
Trump has always been a borrower. The worry in the economy is due to haphazard policies of the government. The article says that if things turn negative, they could raise them later… by negative they must mean inflation rising because if it was due to growth slowing rates would need to go down.
Fox reports that ICE says they were never there. Might wanna make a report then about the armed masked men that gathered in vans and were confronted by protesters and protected by LAPD. Both parties cannot be right.
You can see the ICE agents in their minivans then the LAPD cars in the back appearing to block the Dodger Stadium parking lot entrance.
When I asked an LAPD officer if they are blocking ICE from entering the parking lot she said “put it this way. The Dodgers don’t want them coming in.”
When I asked an LAPD officer if they are blocking ICE from entering the parking lot she said “put it this way. The Dodgers don’t want them coming in.”
June 19, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Fox reports that ICE says they were never there. Might wanna make a report then about the armed masked men that gathered in vans and were confronted by protesters and protected by LAPD. Both parties cannot be right.
This was the desire of Elon’s relatives to create a technocratic state. Yarvin is pretending when he speaks of city states like Singapore. They want to create mega states defined by continents. That’s why Trump wants to join USA with Canada and Greenland and reach down south to the Panama canal.
again, this staggering idiot — this living monument to gross stupidity — is basically the intellectual guru of the sitting vice president
If I'm reading this correctly, then Yarvin wants the role of führer to be awarded via a Wings of Voice-style competition www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
June 3, 2025 at 8:00 AM
This was the desire of Elon’s relatives to create a technocratic state. Yarvin is pretending when he speaks of city states like Singapore. They want to create mega states defined by continents. That’s why Trump wants to join USA with Canada and Greenland and reach down south to the Panama canal.
This doesn’t sound like American policy is being celebrated overseas.
Breaking: 🇯🇵 Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba asserts that the country will not negotiate on U.S. tariffs.
June 2, 2025 at 7:40 AM
This doesn’t sound like American policy is being celebrated overseas.
Bessent is going to get himself fired for talking the truth. Trump wants to pontificate about how China is bowing to his pressure. This plays better to his base than stalled.
@business: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks with China are “a bit stalled,” and that a call between the two leaders may be needed
Main link in OG tweet
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bessent-says-a-trump-xi-call-could-help-as-talks-a-bit-stalled?taid=6838f5942e9f3e000105d0b1&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
www.bloomberg.com
May 30, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Bessent is going to get himself fired for talking the truth. Trump wants to pontificate about how China is bowing to his pressure. This plays better to his base than stalled.
What happened to onshore production for America? Rules for thee but not for me.
Tesla wins council approval for new factory in South Australia despite vocal anti-Musk sentiment
Tesla wins council approval for new factory in South Australia despite vocal anti-Musk sentiment
Marion council voted to seek state government approval for the battery factory in Adelaide despite hundreds of submissions opposing it
Elon Musk’s Tesla is one step closer to opening a factory in an Adelaide suburb despite overwhelming community opposition from “anti-Tesla and anti-Elon Musk sentiment”.
On Tuesday night the City of Marion council voted to seek state government approval to sell the site to a developer who will build the factory. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
May 28, 2025 at 12:57 AM
What happened to onshore production for America? Rules for thee but not for me.
It’s a matter of time before one of these flying ships land in a populated area. Not sure I have confidence that regulators are in control of this program.
This comes hot on the heels of an announcement yesterday that Austin would have self driving taxis in the next fortnight. What could go wrong?
This comes hot on the heels of an announcement yesterday that Austin would have self driving taxis in the next fortnight. What could go wrong?
“Starship heads in for uncontrolled reentry, requiring airspace clearance”.
Three failures in a row. Maybe Elon needs to hire some of those NASA engineers he fired.
Three failures in a row. Maybe Elon needs to hire some of those NASA engineers he fired.
May 28, 2025 at 12:54 AM
It’s a matter of time before one of these flying ships land in a populated area. Not sure I have confidence that regulators are in control of this program.
This comes hot on the heels of an announcement yesterday that Austin would have self driving taxis in the next fortnight. What could go wrong?
This comes hot on the heels of an announcement yesterday that Austin would have self driving taxis in the next fortnight. What could go wrong?
The Trump administration believes that they need to onshore manufacturing when in fact, the main issue is the tax shelters through Ireland. A corporation should be allowed to manufacture at the cheapest place possible, but the revenues derived should be taxed in the country in which they are sold.
CNBC: What is Tim Cook supposed to do?
HASSETT: They need to move their stuff onshore as much as possible to make it so that the US economy is secure and not prone to Chinese extortion
HASSETT: They need to move their stuff onshore as much as possible to make it so that the US economy is secure and not prone to Chinese extortion
May 27, 2025 at 11:59 PM
The Trump administration believes that they need to onshore manufacturing when in fact, the main issue is the tax shelters through Ireland. A corporation should be allowed to manufacture at the cheapest place possible, but the revenues derived should be taxed in the country in which they are sold.
Trump went to Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He tells of his prowess there. If he attacks their funding and tax status will they release his transcript? I am conflicted.
May 10, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Trump went to Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He tells of his prowess there. If he attacks their funding and tax status will they release his transcript? I am conflicted.
Scott is not speaking with an investor’s hat on, he is speaking with a politicians cap. The nature of Trump’s tariff policies will not induce or encourage CEOs to onshore production. Prices will rise, so too the deficit. The US dollar will suffer. He knows this to be true.
in an op-ed for @wsj.com, Trump Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes a series of highly specific promises of economic improvement in the second half of 2025. Bookmark to review later. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
May 6, 2025 at 4:52 AM
Scott is not speaking with an investor’s hat on, he is speaking with a politicians cap. The nature of Trump’s tariff policies will not induce or encourage CEOs to onshore production. Prices will rise, so too the deficit. The US dollar will suffer. He knows this to be true.
Reposted by AL
New: In yet another supplemental letter to Senate Judiciary, DC US attorney nominee Ed Martin disclosed roughly 60 more appearances on Russian state media he had omitted previously — as well as a podcast he recorded with defunct right-wing site VDARE in 2021.
May 5, 2025 at 8:59 PM
New: In yet another supplemental letter to Senate Judiciary, DC US attorney nominee Ed Martin disclosed roughly 60 more appearances on Russian state media he had omitted previously — as well as a podcast he recorded with defunct right-wing site VDARE in 2021.
This graph shows the opposite from what the administration would like tariffs to encourage. They would be hoping that there would be an onshoring process. Unfortunately, for them more have plans to just pass on the price increase.
The latest Fed survey shows how companies are responding to higher tariffs, and the top response is that companies are passing cost increases through to consumers.
In last place: "Relocating production or services to the U.S.”
Source: www.apolloacademy.com/how-are-firm...
In last place: "Relocating production or services to the U.S.”
Source: www.apolloacademy.com/how-are-firm...
May 6, 2025 at 2:31 AM
This graph shows the opposite from what the administration would like tariffs to encourage. They would be hoping that there would be an onshoring process. Unfortunately, for them more have plans to just pass on the price increase.